Beane: Not even contemplating trading up to 1st round

[YoloinOhio]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

If you packaged all of our picks together to move up I still doubt it even gets us back to our original position- and so far McBeane has shown talent at finding good players in the draft so I want to keep them.

I dont think he was referring to our original position as much as say trading up to pick 32 or something 

[Orlando Buffalo]

Just now, YoloinOhio said:

I dont think he was referring to our original position as much as say trading up to pick 32 or something 

I did not flush out my entire point which is that unless we get a top 10 pick it is unlikely the player will have a large impact on our team this season and I would rather see 6 new faces to build up than one new face who needs to be built up.

[Seasons1992]

46 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

That would be pushing all the chips in.

 

 

Pay tyat myan his myoney.

 

Beane deserves it. Our window is wide-*ss open right now.

[Logic]

Zero part of me thought this was in the cards.

 

Now...trading up higher in the 2nd and 3rd? Absolutely on the table. Even after the picks we parted with in the Diggs trade, it’s STILL going to be hard for seven rookies to find roster spots this year. Expect a couple more aggressive, “trading up for specific guys we like” moves. 

[Process]

Theres a good chance there won't even be a season this year. Wouldn't make any sense to give up a ton of picks including 2021 first rounder for a first round pick this year .

[Thurman#1]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

If you packaged all of our picks together to move up I still doubt it even gets us back to our original position- and so far McBeane has shown talent at finding good players in the draft so I want to keep them.

 

 

 

Never mind our original pick. Packaging the rest of the draft wouldn't get us up to #32 unless some team was willing to give us a major discount. Like about 40% off.

 

There never was a reasonable option to move up to the first.

 

And with only three picks in the first 130, they're not likely to give up any of those. If they do move up in the 2nd, odds are it won't be by more than a pick or three.

[John from Riverside]

Why should we even do this?

 

The roster is pretty much set....no glaring needs

Most of the places where we COULD use some competition....there will be players there after round 1

 

Anything that gives up future picks I am TOTALLY against

[IgotBILLStopay]

Talk about stating the obvious. At this point, a trade down is probably more likely than a trade up. I doubt we will trade up even if Jeudy or Lamb falls to the twenties. The prime spot for trade-up, if any,  will likely be to #40=45 (round 2). That being said, one cannot really rule it out entirely. If, say, one of the top 4 Olinemen  or a Simmons / Brown / Okudah is available in the 20s, next year's #1 is in play for a trade up.

[Thurman#1]

35 minutes ago, Hardhatharry said:

He will end up with two 2nd round picks, and two 3rd round picks. I think he will be trading up heavily into those rounds for guys he thinks can earn a spot on this team easily compared to some late rounder. 

 

 

 

Using the Drafttek chart, and assuming that the 2nd pick in round 2 and round 3 are both the last picks to make them as cheap as possible, acquiring those two picks would cost us 270 + 82 = 352. 

 

Trading away all the rest of our picks, the 4th, the 5th, the two 6ths and the 7th would bring us in ... 44 + 23.4 +15 + 7.4 + 1 = 90.5.

 

So, gee, we'd be almost there.Only short by 262 points. Which means he'd only have to throw in the #33 pick next year, the first pick of the 2nd round. Yeah, I think this could happen in Bizarro World.

[BillsPride12]

25 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

When Beane knew it was about getting a QB, he did everything he had to in order to be just outside the top 5 and that was WITHOUT giving up the extra 1st in the same year. Last year he stood pat at 9th overall and made arguably one of the best picks in the Draft considering the value of Ed Oliver who some thought could go 3rd overall. Fast forward to where the Bills are making the rock-solid commitment to having the same Offensive Line, and many of the same skill position players except for one of the most important: a true WR1 that will help their young, developing QB. No question mark about if that Rookie WR will develop into what the team needs this year and in the years to come. I could be very wrong, but given all of that aforementioned information, I believe Beane on this one and think they know they've spent their extra top end Draft capital on Diggs and feel good about it. 

 

Now, trading back into the 2nd or 3rd with the extra mid round picks, THAT is definitely something I foresee just based on numbers. But the 1st in my mind, is over for Beane unless someone calls him and it's too good to pass up. 

You don't trade a first round pick when your picking in the Top 10's....when you have a back end pick in the first round and you have an opportunity to get a guaranteed talent still in their prime you can pull the trigger on dealing that pick.  Beane knows how to play the game 

[Rocky Landing]

To trade up into the first round would require more than the value of our 2020 draft pics. Such a trade would have to include either higher round 2021 draft pics, or current players. Neither would seem to be worth it, especially considering this season's limited scouting protocols. 

 

Personally, IMO, I would be surprised if he didn't trade up in the second. I don't feel like later round picks, this season, have as much value for the Bills, as they do for most other teams. Later round picks this season will be lucky to make the practice squad. I also have a suspicion that this is one reason Beane is in favor of the proposed ten round draft, as those additional picks equal more trade capital.

[JoeF]

If a team is going to lack a first rounder -- this is the year to not have one....the due diligence into picks has certainly been negatively impacted by the pandemic.    On -site visits with 30 prospects are extremely valuable.  The Bills conversion rate from on-site visits to drafting has been pretty high in Beane's first two drafts.  A lot of health, personality, football intellect and other aspects of a player are honed and completed in that on-site visit

 

Drafting in the lower half of the first round is always a bit speculative...this year even more so. 

 

I will take the certainty of Diggs for 4 years for that 1st round pick...

[C.Biscuit97]

9 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Why should we even do this?

 

The roster is pretty much set....no glaring needs

Most of the places where we COULD use some competition....there will be players there after round 1

 

Anything that gives up future picks I am TOTALLY against

He’s traded up in every draft so far. 
 

and I think pass rusher and big receiver are much bigger needs than most fans realize.  Our receiving code is tiny.  And our 2 best pass rushers are in their 30s and Hughes is averaging like 5 sacks/ season for the last 4 years.  

1 minute ago, JoeF said:

If a team is going to lack a first rounder -- this is the year to not have one....the due diligence into picks has certainly been negatively impacted by the pandemic.    On -site visits with 30 prospects are extremely valuable.  The Bills conversion rate from on-site visits to drafting has been pretty high in Beane's first two drafts.  A lot of health, personality, football intellect and other aspects of a player are honed and completed in that on-site visit

 

Drafting in the lower half of the first round is always a bit speculative...this year even more so. 

 

I will take the certainty of Diggs for 4 years for that 1st round pick...

I bet there is no real difference in this years draft and other years.  I think people completely overrate how hard drafting is.  Look at their film breakdown that’s all over YouTube, google the player’s history, and have virtual meetings with them. 
 

some of these guys act like they are trying to find the cure to the Coronavirus.  

[John from Riverside]

3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

He’s traded up in every draft so far. 
 

and I think pass rusher and big receiver are much bigger needs than most fans realize.  Our receiving code is tiny.  And our 2 best pass rushers are in their 30s and Hughes is averaging like 5 sacks/ season for the last 4 years.  

I bet there is no real difference in this years draft and other years.  I think people completely overrate how hard drafting is.  Look at their film breakdown that’s all over YouTube, google the player’s history, and have virtual meetings with them. 
 

some of these guys act like they are trying to find the cure to the Coronavirus.  

Those players will be available in the 2nd round

[eball]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

I know this will never happen.  And I know trading up in the 1st could be a disaster but I think I would be completely in on this.  That would be pushing all the chips in.

 

Aren't you the poster who called Beane's trades up in the draft "annoying?"

 

The Bills have already pushed their chips in...they're not looking to mortgage the future for a rookie who won't even be practicing much prior to the start of the season.

 

This is the WORST year to be trading up in the draft.

 

Edited April 15, 2020 by eball

[dbfla10]

1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

Anything said by a Gm in April means nothing.  Come draft night if someone they covet as a top 10 guys is there pick 25 to 32 I bet beane makes a call.

 

This is 100% True. 

[C.Biscuit97]

5 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Aren't you the poster who called Beane's trades up in the draft "annoying?"

 

The Bills have already pushed their chips in...they're not looking to mortgage the future for a rookie who won't even be practicing much prior to the start of the season.

 

This is the WORST year to be trading up in the draft.

 

Yup.  I think trading up for any non qb normally backfires.  But IN terms of the team now and importance of the position, pass rusher would be the only one I’d be happy with.  And it’s because I think Young is that good and it would make this defense an elite group.  And pass rusher is one of the easier position to translate to the pros.  This guy might be better than the Bosa bros.  Before Allen and White get paid, this is the SB window. 
 

it won’t happen though.

Edited April 15, 2020 by C.Biscuit97

[JustWinPlease]

29 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I did not flush out my entire point which is that unless we get a top 10 pick it is unlikely the player will have a large impact on our team this season and I would rather see 6 new faces to build up than one new face who needs to be built up.

I promise there are 1st round players outside the top-10 that would be starters on this team.

I'm not advocating trading the farm to get into the first round, but acting like this roster is completely set is just wrong.

Hell, if our 2nd round pick doesn't have a large impact on this team this season, that would be a massive disappointment.

[ColoradoBills]

If Beane traded back into the 1st round using a combination of this years and next years picks I would be extremely disappointed in him.

[Thurman#1]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

He’s traded up in every draft so far. 
 

and I think pass rusher and big receiver are much bigger needs than most fans realize.  Our receiving code is tiny.  And our 2 best pass rushers are in their 30s and Hughes is averaging like 5 sacks/ season for the last 4 years.  

 

 

Yes, he's traded up. But except for the major haul of picks they acquired to bring in a QB, where they ended up lucking into not only a QB but also Edmund with the extras ... Beane's never traded away anything from the first two days. More than that, he's never emptied out a round. That is to say, he's never traded a pick unless he either had another pick left in the same round or he'd already doubled up in an earlier round. 

 

If he keeps that up, he'll only trade away one of our two sixth rounders, unless he accumulates some extra picks from trading back or trading player for pick. So I could definitely see him trading up, but the folks who expect a big move upwards are expecting him to break his tendencies. 

 

Agreed that pass rusher and receiver are bigger needs than most realise, though I don't think size is the factor you do. If we need a big guy, they can just keep Duke Williams.