How do you judge a good defense?

[BritBill]

When you're assessing if a team has a good/great/elite defense what yardstick do you use?

 

Yards allowed? Points allowed? Third down stops? 3 and outs? Sacks?

 

Let me know your thoughts? 

[BruceVilanch]

Points allowed is usually a good indicator for me. I like turnover differential also but that can be skewed pretty easily by your offense. The eye test can also tell you a lot. What about you?

[BritBill]

1 hour ago, BruceVilanch said:

Points allowed is usually a good indicator for me. I like turnover differential also but that can be skewed pretty easily by your offense. The eye test can also tell you a lot. What about you?

 

I'm unsure. I've kind have been a points allowed chap but that can be skewed slightly like yards allowed by garbage time vanilla defense but maybe not as much. 

 

What about red zone points against? 

 

Also does everyone apply the same rules to judging an offense as they do a defense?

 

 

Edited April 15, 2020 by BritBill

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Points.  Rex proved that you could win some other metrics and still field a loser. 
 

the defense has one job, prevent Opposition scoring 

[longtimebillsfan]

Points first, then yards allowed.

 

Turnovers are nice, but you frequently see a highly rated defense that relies heavily on turnovers to cover other weaknesses and the following year when the turnovers are not as frequent, that defense ratings drops significantly.

Edited April 15, 2020 by longtimebillsfan

[machine gun kelly]

Points allowed.

[GunnerBill]

Points, yards, turnovers in that order  

[Peace Frog]

Points allowed is obvious.  After that, it's 3rd down conversion % for me.  If you can force 3 & outs, .....

[K-9]

Average yards per rush attempt against, average yards per pass attempt against, average yards per play against, and passer rating. When those metrics are superior, the rest takes care if itself. 

[BillsPride12]

I've been watching football long enough where the eye test is good enough for me.  I know when I am watching good defense.  The statistics usually back it up though 

[mjt328]

I always go with the eye test first.  Stats can often be misleading, and don't always account for game situations.

 

For example, I recall the Bills defensive team from around 2003-2004 (Takeo Spikes, London Fletcher, etc.).  By all accounts, they were pretty good in most statistical categories.  But I feel like that unit was fairly overrated, because they always choked in key situations.  When it counted, they could never make the 3rd Down/4th Quarter stop.

 

On the flip-side, I think our defense from 2017-2018 was probably better than stats showed.  They were always being put into bad field position, due to turnovers and an offense that was constantly going 3-Out.  

 

But if you are going to compare stats, the best one to start with is definitely points allowed.  Especially when you consider that our defense is specifically designed to be "bend, but don't break."  The second stat is probably yards per attempt (total yards allowed means virtually nothing).  The third is probably turnovers.  

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Points allowed and turnovers

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Points, yards, turnovers in that order  

Yards is a meaningless stat. Yards per rush or attempt is better.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Points allowed and turnovers

Yards is a meaningless stat. Yards per rush or attempt is better.

 

I disagree. Ultimately the job is to stop them moving the ball and stop them scoring.

[Thurman#1]

Picking one?

 

Yards Allowed.

 

Points Allowed is more important, but it isolates the defense very poorly. For example, if your QB throws a pick six, Points Allowed puts the blame for that on your defense, which is outright dunder-headed. If your RB fumbles and the other team recovers on your 1 yard-line and takes four plays to hammer it in, again, Points Allowed blames your defense seven points worth for what was actually a pretty decent defensive series. Worse, if on the same fumble, your defense sacks them three times, forcing a 42-yard field goal, Points Allowed blames your defense for what is actually a resounding success.

 

Defense holds the opposing offense to zero yards on three plays? Your returner fair catches? Your offense gains zero yards on three plays and the opponent runs the punt back for a TD? Points Allowed says your defense is at fault.

 

The defense is probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 60% - 75% responsible for Points Allowed. Field position is huge in how likely a team is to score on any give drive, and the offense and STs have tremendous say in how bad or how good the opposing offense's field position is. Number of drives faced is also huge in how successful your defense will be in Points Allowed. If your defense faced 20 more drives than another team did, they'll allow more points even if they're exactly as good. And again, offense has a huge role in how many drives your defense will face.

 

Yards Allowed almost completely isolates the defense. Over the course of a season yards defended will not be wildly different from team to team.

 

Is it a perfect measure? Nah, far from it, there is none that's close. Turnovers in particular are also big, though some of that - particularly fumbles caused vs. fumbles recovered - comes down to luck. But if you have to pick one, Yards Allowed is probably the best. That's why it's how defenses are ranked.

Edited April 15, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

7 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Points allowed and turnovers

Yards is a meaningless stat. Yards per rush or attempt is better.

 

 

Yards are very far from meaningless. On the contrary. yards is a very important stat. It corresponds perfectly with field position. The more yards you give up, the better field position the other team will have and the poorer yours will be on both offense and to a lesser degree defense. The fewer yards you give up, the better field position your team gets.

[BritBill]

Thanks all. The replies have definitely got me leaning towards yards allowed over points conceded. 

 

I also like the yards per play model. Should there be more credit given for lower yards per rush play over yards per pass play? Or vice versa.

[Hardhatharry]

Points allowed, then you have to look at how good the offense is. Having a great defense will look even better when you find out how many more drives they had to shut down compared to defenses with better offenses. Yards per drive are also good. You really should look at everything and never focus on one thing too much.

 

Ted Bruschi or whatever his name is used to do his own defensive rankings that were much better than anything I seen. I don't think he does them anymore.

Edited April 15, 2020 by Hardhatharry

[nucci]

3 hours ago, BritBill said:

When you're assessing if a team has a good/great/elite defense what yardstick do you use?

 

Yards allowed? Points allowed? Third down stops? 3 and outs? Sacks?

 

Let me know your thoughts? 

points allowed because fewer points allowed usually means more wins

Edited April 15, 2020 by nucci

[BarleyNY]

I usually start with Defensive DVOA.  it is not perfect, but they do well to weed out a lot of noise and focus on what is meaningful.  I like that they take the situation into account on each play.  Too often yardage given up and points against are skewed by game situations like garbage time.  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

For me it's points followed by sacks/pressure.