SI Article: forget about sports this year

[Doc]

1 hour ago, SirAndrew said:

That could be a nightmare scenario imo. If this virus is still circulating, a scenario where we test all players and personnel has the potential to go very poorly.  I can envision hundreds of positive tests on asymptomatic players. The season would be a random crap shoot based on the amount of players who would miss two weeks.  

 

If they're positive, they go into quarantine.  If there are too many of them, then they cancel the season.

[thronethinker]

Just now, Tesla03 said:

 

its not about getting "back to normal" 

 

if we get back to normal too quickly the hospital system in every major metro area will collapse. 

And as I said. We think we are above nature, but we are not.  A hospital system only treats symptoms, it doesnt stop nature from taking its course. Perhaps if we didn’t have 55 million people in an area of the Earth all living off of wet markets we could avoid this. But alas we play the victim, although in reality we are the the reason for the virus. It wouldn’t exist if we didn’t provide the acceptable conditions to promote it.  

[RyanC883]

8 hours ago, BillsFan17 said:

Doesn't negate that there was good content in the article from medical professionals and professionals in the science field.

 

Also, for all those that think its just as simple as get a vaccine and the world is back to normal... I truly am envious of the life you lead.

 

I was just making a joke about Sports Illustrated and how it's basically terrible at sports coverage.  I didn't even read the article, wasn't a comment onthe article.   

[DuckyBoys]

35 minutes ago, thronethinker said:

And as I said. We think we are above nature, but we are not.  A hospital system only treats symptoms, it doesnt stop nature from taking its course. Perhaps if we didn’t have 55 million people in an area of the Earth all living off of wet markets we could avoid this. But alas we play the victim, although in reality we are the the reason for the virus. It wouldn’t exist if we didn’t provide the acceptable conditions to promote it.  

 

 

I think you are right.  Mother Nature is trying to correct things.  I think we'll be back to some form of amended normalcy sooner than later.  Spanish flu killed  an estimate of 50+ million when the world's population was only 1.8 Billion so there are precedents to look at. I cant see everything in lock down for 6 months, there would be no economy left. I'm sure much smarter people than us are busy calculating every possibility

[transplantbillsfan]

I think the NFL is actually going to have a lot of pressure to have a season, even if that means in empty stadiums.

 

Training Camps don't even start til the very end of July... long way away, and even if Training Camp is the first time teams meet, that month + of work is ultimately the offseason work that matters.

 

I really think there will be a season.

 

But honestly, who knows? Today was the deadliest day in our country for the disease so it doesn't exactly look like it's slowing down.

[Motor26]

7 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I think the NFL is actually going to have a lot of pressure to have a season, even if that means in empty stadiums.

 

Training Camps don't even start til the very end of July... long way away, and even if Training Camp is the first time teams meet, that month + of work is ultimately the offseason work that matters.

 

I really think there will be a season.

 

But honestly, who knows? Today was the deadliest day in our country for the disease so it doesn't exactly look like it's slowing down.

Of course the NFL will have pressure to start. Goodell and the owners will want to collect any money they can. If they don’t have fans, they’ll just charge PPV like prices for the games.

[leonbus23]

9 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I don't doubt you've been studying it, so you probably know that the current estimate is 78% of those infected are asymptomatic. And I'm sure you know that the vast majority of those tested thus far in the US are tested because they are showing symptoms. So if we take the US confirmed cases (591,181) and factor in the asymptomatic carriers, that puts us around 2.69M infected. This essentially quarters the mortality rate you are trying to cite, and it's why others are pushing back on using it compared to an established rate from a past event. The raw numbers certainly look scary and are changing by the day, but as of right now we're looking at a mortality rate of ~0.91% which applies to ~0.81% of our country's population. I'm not trying to downplay it or anything, just taking a rational approach to the data.

 

Good luck out there and stay safe! 

 

You're arguing against an estimate with another estimate. Although, I think your estimate is closer than his estimate. 

[Figster]

26 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I think the NFL is actually going to have a lot of pressure to have a season, even if that means in empty stadiums.

 

Training Camps don't even start til the very end of July... long way away, and even if Training Camp is the first time teams meet, that month + of work is ultimately the offseason work that matters.

 

I really think there will be a season.

 

But honestly, who knows? Today was the deadliest day in our country for the disease so it doesn't exactly look like it's slowing down.

 I agree,

 

By the time football season gets here the US will have had a decent number of confirmed cases that have recovered and are able to go back to a more normal way of living IMO. 

 

Covid 19 survivor ticket discount is what I'm talking about...

[PetermansRedemption]

5 hours ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:

Vaccine = sports.  It'll be awhile.

But your assuming a vaccine actually happens and is successful. Rather imminently. I believe that’s a pretty rash decision. Life is not going to be on pause until a vaccine comes out. It just isn’t going to happen. Maybe if this thing had an indiscriminate death rate. Maybe if the death rate was higher. When the survivability rate is so high for those under 50 and without pre-existing conditions it just isn’t going to happen. I can’t see unprecedented stay at home orders lasting very much longer. They certainly won’t be tolerated if there is a failed vaccine. This is going to become an acceptable risk and an after thought far sooner than people realize. 

3 minutes ago, Figster said:

 I agree,

 

By the time football season gets here the US will have had a decent number of confirmed cases that have recovered and are able to go back to a more normal way of living IMO. 

 

Covid 19 survivor ticket discount is what I'm talking about...

I cannot wait to find out the true number of Covid infections. I think a lot of people are going to be shocked by just how many people have had this. It will also completely murder (pun intended) the mortality rate of Covid and make it far harder for people to justify stay at home orders any longer. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

14 hours ago, Captain Hindsight said:

Why does everyone assume that having 22 grown men running around on a field, not to mention another 100 people on the sidelines, media and refs is safe for those 300 people, but having fans there too is suddenly not safe?

 

My thinking is that we have to ramp up the testing to a huge level. In fact, the NFL should probably be investing or looking for ways to purchase 10's of thousands of tests. I've heard about a 15 minute test. Not sure how it works or if those 200 or so people in the game and on the sidelines could all take the test game day morning and get results back 15 minutes before kick off. Game time decision will have an entire new meaning for fantasy team owners. 

[Nelius]

13 hours ago, aristocrat said:

a few weeks ago they were predicting millions of deaths. now looking more like under 100k. who knows where we will be in a month. 

 

Is this like an Uncle Rico bit? The 26,000 and counting aren't coming back Uncs, but I feel like I'm missing an obvious joke here.

 

12 hours ago, arcane said:

It's been bizarre to watch pessimism increase as our death toll looks more and more like its going to come in at a fraction of the best case scenarios of just two weeks ago.

 

Well to be fair the projections and timelines have been all over the place. It's better than the projections two weeks ago. It's incredibly worse than the projections our government was providing about six weeks ago. Another 2,000+ died today, so it's definitely bad enough.

Edited April 15, 2020 by Nelius

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

12 hours ago, PetermansRedemption said:

Yes, it absolutely is easier to control 300 people than 70,000. They don’t have to follow any rules if they don’t want to, that is their right. They can run around town every night of the week. The only time they will be isolated is the day before game day after they get their rapid test. They aren’t living in isolation for the entire season. 

 

Correct. Players can go about their daily lives. The risk for them, other than possibly becoming ill, is if they get a positive test they'll miss at least a couple games and be in quarantine. 

 

The other issue with the testing of players and personnel before games or throughout the week perhaps multiple times would be one of public perception. The NBA was ridiculed because a handful of NBA players were being tested a few weeks back while the general public was not. 

 

If tests are still in rather short supply will the NFL be able to justify testing it's players and personnel weekly or perhaps 2-3 times a week?

Edited April 15, 2020 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[BillsVet]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That's pretty much what we need to do in order to restart all activities that are currently suspended.

 

We need data.

 

And the ability to sift through datasets to identify which data matter.  Right now, there's an overload and it's hard to know what is relevant. 

 

9 hours ago, zonabb said:

I won't attend a game without a vaccine or without the cases being down to zero. Risk health and life for sports, give me a break. To watch a bunch of millionaires make money but extracting it from our pockets and with our health on the line. No F. IN. WAY. I'll demand a refund from the Bills for my STs. 

 

Also, anyone here saying "we know nothing" and can't predict anything is a moron and I'm sure I know where you get your news from and who you'll vote for in November. We can predict, with certainty, what this looks like moving ahead based on certain measures, like social distancing. And I was told yesterday from some well placed people that non-essential people would go back to work in 2 waves. First on July 1, second by mid-August. And even in that case, a fall re-emergence of the disease absent a vaccine or complete eradication would be likely and a shelter in place order would keep every locked up for the holidays.

 

I'd put my money on it's more likely we're still dealing with this well into the fall than Josh Allen exceeding a 62% completion rate and 30 TDs in any season. 

 

6 hours ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:

Vaccine = sports.  It'll be awhile.

 

The vaccine is required mantra is moot when you consider many viruses after years have no vaccine:  

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/19/health/vaccines-poverty.html

 

Vaccines are not easy to develop.  I wish the narrative demanding a vaccine before anything can start would be viewed appropriately.  Things will start before, owing to the fact owners and players want to earn money AND the virus diminishes significantly from current state. 

 

 

[Nelius]

What I find pretty disheartening is the number of people that already seem to think this is almost over. Forget the fringe rubes that still think this is a hoax or overblown, but I've seen so many people that have taken this seriously also start to think that we've turned a corner on it already. I've seen it at work and especially when talking with relatives - people almost seem ready to celebrate because they've hunkered down for a week or two. Yet in a lot of ways this is still just getting started. 2,000+ died today in the U.S., and some of our Southern neighbors are just now starting to see spikes as well (Mexico, Ecuador, Peru). I feel like many still haven't even really dealt with the reality of this all yet, which in turn could mean we're likely far too undisciplined to get our hands around this thing like a few other countries have already started to through rigid, prolonged isolation, which means no chance in hell of football this year.

Edited April 15, 2020 by Nelius

[chongli]

1 hour ago, PetermansRedemption said:

But your assuming a vaccine actually happens and is successful. Rather imminently. I believe that’s a pretty rash decision. Life is not going to be on pause until a vaccine comes out. It just isn’t going to happen. Maybe if this thing had an indiscriminate death rate. Maybe if the death rate was higher. When the survivability rate is so high for those under 50 and without pre-existing conditions it just isn’t going to happen. I can’t see unprecedented stay at home orders lasting very much longer. They certainly won’t be tolerated if there is a failed vaccine. This is going to become an acceptable risk and an after thought far sooner than people realize. 

I cannot wait to find out the true number of Covid infections. I think a lot of people are going to be shocked by just how many people have had this. It will also completely murder (pun intended) the mortality rate of Covid and make it far harder for people to justify stay at home orders any longer. 

 

Life will be on pause until a vaccine comes out, whether people like it or not. There is too much to lose otherwise. They have no choice in the matter.

 

And whether the survivability rate is high among younger people is not the issue. The virus can cause permanent damage to survivors to their hearts, lungs, and brains, no matter their age. Many of those people will need to be in the ICU and require ventilators. When you are on a ventilator, they either sedate you and use paralytics and restraints because you feel like you are drowning when on a ventilator and try to instincitvely pull the cords out, or they put you into an induced coma for a few weeks. Do you want to be on a ventilator or die? Some younger people will die. They will also spread the virus to others before they are symptomatic. If there is a spike, they will overwhelm the medical system.

 

I predict no football this year, and maybe not in 2021 either. All NFL contracts will be frozen. There are more serious things than sports now. This shelter-in-pace is the new normal. It is just the beginning.

Edited April 15, 2020 by chongli

[Saxum]

32 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

My thinking is that we have to ramp up the testing to a huge level. In fact, the NFL should probably be investing or looking for ways to purchase 10's of thousands of tests. I've heard about a 15 minute test. Not sure how it works or if those 200 or so people in the game and on the sidelines could all take the test game day morning and get results back 15 minutes before kick off. Game time decision will have an entire new meaning for fantasy team owners. 

 

 

XXX Test - an offical sponsor of the NFL!

[Nelius]

13 minutes ago, chongli said:

And whether the survivability rate is high among younger people is not the issue. The virus can cause permanent damage to survivors to their hears, lungs, and brains, no matter their age. Many of those people will need to be in the ICU and require ventilators. When you are on a ventilator, they either sedate you and use paralytics and restraints because you feel like you are drowning when on a ventilator and try to insticitvely pull the cords out, or they put you into an induced coma for a few weeks. Do you want to be on a ventilator or die? Some younger people will die. They will also spread the virus to others before they are symptomatic. If there is a spike, they will overwhelm the medical system.

 

I agree with everything you said, but also just want to add that a 21 year old baseball player just recently died from Covid in my neck of the woods (Denver).

 

Maybe he had underlying issues. Maybe I do. I'm not really looking for this virus to give me a physical on the spot and punish me for anything I'm unaware of. Fact is anybody can die from it.

Edited April 15, 2020 by Nelius

[Saxum]

If there is no sports for a year why will people pay for Sports Illustrated?

[iinii]

16 hours ago, Bleedbuffaloblue said:

Yeah, unless this virus is miraculously wiped out this summer by natural or synthetic means which is highly unlikely all this talk of sports starting back up is just that, talk. A lot of overly optimistic hot air. The logistics are just too daunting when you start really seriously thinking about it and all the ramifications.

As the article says a vaccine is the key. Who knows how long the development and distribution of such will take. I’ve heard anywhere from this fall until this time next year, but no one really knows.

No one wants to fathom the idea of no sports until 2021, but it sure is getting to look like that could be the way this thing ultimately shakes out.

Figures just when our Bills team is ready to make some serious noise the whole thing gets put on hold. Guess we can plan to add “no season” to the list of frustrating moments for our favorite sports teams.

I prefer natural over synthetic 

[SirAndrew]

7 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Correct. Players can go about their daily lives. The risk for them, other than possibly becoming ill, is if they get a positive test they'll miss at least a couple games and be in quarantine. 

 

The other issue with the testing of players and personnel before games or throughout the week perhaps multiple times would be one of public perception. The NBA was ridiculed because a handful of NBA players were being tested a few weeks back while the general public was not. 

 

If tests are still in rather short supply will the NFL be able to justify testing it's players and personnel weekly or perhaps 2-3 times a week?

Exactly, the optics of NFL players getting testing on a regular basis would be terrible. Many health  care facilities are overrun with the virus, yet employees can’t get tested to protect the patients. If that doesn’t change, and tests aren’t abundant, there will be major pushback. I don’t see the testing nonsense working for the NFL.