SI Article: forget about sports this year

[MJS]

10 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

Well I can do math, but I forgot to slide the decimal point 2 spots over when converting to percentage. You are correct on the .02%. Based on current numbers COVID-19 is still 200 times more deadly if you catch it.

No it isn't. You can't compare the two because we don't know the total number of cases for COVID-19.

[Gordio]

50 minutes ago, yungmack said:

The mortality rate among those actually infected is officially about 3%, which is extremely high. It is believed that both the infected and death numbers are much higher. For example, those dying at home, or without an official designation of infection, are not counted in the totals because they are not being tested.

 

What about the cases that never get tested & recover.  Wouldn't that lower the death %?    Your statement makes no sense.

[BuffaloHokie13]

31 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

Yes. Finally someone who knows what he's talking about with this. I agree with most of what you said, but using the lasted confirmed cases and people who died and were confirmed beforehand in the US the current mortality rate is 4% in the US(I'm not talking the whole World's numbers).

 

Being an essential worker(Actually handling COVID-19 test packages at UPS) & having a couple of underlying conditions that make me more susceptible to getting and dying from this virus I have practically have been studying this virus since early March.

I don't doubt you've been studying it, so you probably know that the current estimate is 78% of those infected are asymptomatic. And I'm sure you know that the vast majority of those tested thus far in the US are tested because they are showing symptoms. So if we take the US confirmed cases (591,181) and factor in the asymptomatic carriers, that puts us around 2.69M infected. This essentially quarters the mortality rate you are trying to cite, and it's why others are pushing back on using it compared to an established rate from a past event. The raw numbers certainly look scary and are changing by the day, but as of right now we're looking at a mortality rate of ~0.91% which applies to ~0.81% of our country's population. I'm not trying to downplay it or anything, just taking a rational approach to the data.

 

Good luck out there and stay safe! 

[WhoTom]

2 hours ago, Marv's Neighbor said:

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!

 

The guy who said that went on to become a Senator. I know it was fictional satire, but perhaps it was a bit prescient as well.

 

[Jauronimo]

4 hours ago, Captain Hindsight said:

Why does everyone assume that having 22 grown men running around on a field, not to mention another 100 people on the sidelines, media and refs is safe for those 300 people, but having fans there too is suddenly not safe?

 

There will be no football until we have this under control. Whether thats a vaccine, better treatment or something that someone a lot smarter than me comes up, the NFL, NFLPA will not agree to play until it is determined safe by the medical community

 

At the end of the day, its entertainment. In a society that is a wonderful thing, but hardly essential. This is a public health emergency. Football isnt a concern, nor should it 

 

And yes I want a season to happen. I love football more than anything, but we have to be safe first

I think it will be fun watching games played with 5th string guys signed off the street and replacement coaches.

[Chandler#81]

3 hours ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

There will be football!  

For Thine hath deemed it so. Amen.

2 hours ago, BillsFan17 said:

Lmao yeah, they are the model to follow. Gtfo 

‘scuse me, funny boy, but this is the area where the virus began and where countless teams of WHO personnel descended upon very early on as the Planets’ best authorities on disease and measures required. As a global team, they have little national ties and have access to the free press of the world to counter any misinformation which may originate there. <Pssst! Your racist witlessness is showing> Cover up.

1 hour ago, Long Suffering Fan said:

Hi, I read TBD almost every day.  Thanks everyone for posting!  I really enjoy the extra content this site brings.  I'm posting today for the first time only because I would feel guilty if I didn't.  There is some good news out there.  It just hasn't gotten a lot of traction yet.  I know a few people in the medical field.  They tell me:

 

- They were going to have to all do shifts in NYC to help out, but all of that has been cancelled.  They no longer need the help.

- Their hospital, which normally runs at 120% capacity, is currently at 50%.  I know that is because elective procedures have been cancelled, but a few weeks ago there was a real fear that that space was needed to handle the influx of covid patients.  

- This is causing some doctors to be laid off.  Think about that.  We are in the middle of a health crisis and we are able to lay off some of our health professionals.

- Out in Washington State they are dismantling a temporary field hospital they built and returning ventilators back to the supply.

- A friend of mine believes she has Coronavirus.  When she went in to get tested, they sent her home without a test and told her that, at this point, they would not treat her any different if she tested positive.  I know that, at first glance, that sounds like bad news, but it shows that we have seen these improvements while we still don't even have wide spread testing yet.  It also means that any fatality percentage numbers we are seeing are skewed when we are not even testing people with symptoms.

- Another doctor told me that they believe the mortality rate of this disease will be in the area of 0.3% to 0.5%, which is way lower than we feared.  

- He pointed me to Iceland and the UAE as examples since they have done so well with testing.  Most everyone there with symptoms is being tested.  Iceland has tested over 10% of its population.  They have 8 deaths and 1711 cases.  The UAE has tested 6.5% of their population.  They have 25 deaths and 4521 cases.

- This likely means that many more in America have already had the disease.

 

All of this is very positive news, so take heart.  2-3 weeks ago, it looked like it could have been MUCH worse than this.  We still have a long way to go, but things look much brighter than they did at one point.

Thank you for your qualitative initial post and Welcome Aboard!

Now, for your initial examination, please answer the following questions so that our staff of highly trained professionals may discern competency.

 1.) Kemp or Lamonica?

 2.) Sestak or B. Smith?

 3.) Saban or Levy?

 4.) Thurman or OJ?

 5.) Original colors?

 6.) Ralph or the Pegs?

 7.) Standing or Charging Buffalo?

and finally, 8.) Ranch or Bleu Cheese?

[Stanley Lombardi]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

The original predictions were assuming no widespread social distancing policies. The new predictions are assuming we continue the current social distancing policies. You have to read beyond the headlines with this stuff because the media is notoriously bad at reporting science.

The media chooses which "science" to report, and which "science" to ignore.   

[Long Suffering Fan]

Thank you for your qualitative initial post and Welcome Aboard!

Now, for your initial examination, please answer the following questions so that our staff of highly trained professionals may discern competency.

 1.) Kemp or Lamonica?

 

Kemp was undeniably good off the bench (weird even saying that), but I think I will go with the mad bomber.

 

 2.) Sestak or B. Smith?

 

Different positions obviously , but Smith.  What he did playing in a 3-4 is unbelievable.  Not only the sack leader, but really good against the run.  We win that Pittsburgh playoff game if we have him.

 

 3.) Saban or Levy?

 

Tough.  Saban.  Mainly because, despite how good they were, I felt like Levy's teams actually under achieved at times.  

 

 4.) Thurman or OJ?

 

Thurman was amazing, a fantastic receiver, he never had a penalty on him, and had otherworldly patience in the hole (he was a better version of Leveon Bell long before people started raving about Bell's patience), but OJ.  Anyone who watched him - there was no comparison - moves, speed, and power.  

 

 5.) Original colors?

 

Yes, please, yes.  

 

 6.) Ralph or the Pegs?

 

I'm thankful for what Ralph did and he was not really as cheap as he was made out to be, but Pegs.  

 

 7.) Standing or Charging Buffalo?

 

Standing

 

8.) Ranch or Bleu Cheese?

 

This can only be a real question outside of WNY, right?  Blue Cheese.  Of course.

[Chandler#81]

5 minutes ago, Long Suffering Fan said:

Thank you for your qualitative initial post and Welcome Aboard!

Now, for your initial examination, please answer the following questions so that our staff of highly trained professionals may discern competency.

 1.) Kemp or Lamonica?

 

Kemp was undeniably good off the bench (weird even saying that), but I think I will go with the mad bomber.

 

 2.) Sestak or B. Smith?

 

Different positions obviously , but Smith.  What he did playing in a 3-4 is unbelievable.  Not only the sack leader, but really good against the run.  We win that Pittsburgh playoff game if we have him.

 

 3.) Saban or Levy?

 

Tough.  Saban.  Mainly because, despite how good they were, I felt like Levy's teams actually under achieved at times.  

 

 4.) Thurman or OJ?

 

Thurman was amazing, a fantastic receiver, he never had a penalty on him, and had otherworldly patience in the hole (he was a better version of Leveon Bell long before people started raving about Bell's patience), but OJ.  Anyone who watched him - there was no comparison - moves, speed, and power.  

 

 5.) Original colors?

 

Yes, please, yes.  

 

 6.) Ralph or the Pegs?

 

I'm thankful for what Ralph did and he was not really as cheap as he was made out to be, but Pegs.  

 

 7.) Standing or Charging Buffalo?

 

Standing

 

8.) Ranch or Bleu Cheese?

 

This can only be a real question outside of WNY, right?  Blue Cheese.  Of course.

Bravo!

Here. Wear this lanyard ‘All Access Premier Playa Pass’ whenever you enter the premises. It entitles you to dine at the exclusive Champions Restaurant (so exclusive, there’s no one there..), 2 free drink chips every visit and your personal parking spot. 

 

Seriously, Welcome Aboard!

[Seasons1992]

57 minutes ago, 416BillsFan said:

Ugh, can't Dr. Fauchi sign Ryan Fitzpatrick as COVID's backup so it goes away?

 

[Klaus]

1 hour ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

Well I can do math, but I forgot to slide the decimal point 2 spots over when converting to percentage. You are correct on the .02%. Based on current numbers COVID-19 is still 200 times more deadly if you catch it.

 

When H1N1 was last an issue in 2009, the reported case fatality rate was 2 - 2.9% (search the news stories of the day, or academic papers), it was only after they did the antibody tests was it revised to .02%. 

 

Apply that to today, the 4% rate is a case fatality rate, in the aftermath when they do the antibody tests that will fall drastically. I am not saying it will be the exact same ratio and covid will go to .04%, I am just saying case fatality rate can be very misleading. Just look around the globe and current reported case fatality rates range from .15 to 20%, that is not what I would call a focused range, seems about as accurate as Mitch Trubisky trying to hit a running back in the flat.....

 

[krf139]

I am so sick of Health Officials being quoted as saying, "we can't do anything without a vaccine."  Of course they are going to say this.  They are like tornado storm chasers in this mess.  We need a balanced view of opening the country and protecting public health.  It's why the Health Experts should have a say, but not make final decisions.  It's why the Economists should have a say, but not make final decisions.  All this information has to be synthesized and leaders need to make reasonable decisions that balance both.  

[SirAndrew]

3 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

Age no ? and the effects on the young..which seem to be minimal

Agree with the entirety of this post..very smart man you are that we think alike?

 

In terms of how many people have had it...i will look for the link but I am watching CNBC right now and one the hosts said NY Presbyterian Hospital admitted 200 women in the last little while for childbirth, allasymptomatic, and 39 tested poitive for the Rona...and thats great news( I think)

 

Yeah, everyone will have had exposure to it by fall imo. So I’m not going get all doom and gloom about needing a vaccine to save us. We are vastly underestimating how many people will actually be positive for this before next fall. By positive I don’t mean a positive test, I just mean that they actually had the virus. 

Edited April 14, 2020 by SirAndrew

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Lol , sports are happening this year .

 

 

[zonabb]

I won't attend a game without a vaccine or without the cases being down to zero. Risk health and life for sports, give me a break. To watch a bunch of millionaires make money but extracting it from our pockets and with our health on the line. No F. IN. WAY. I'll demand a refund from the Bills for my STs. 

 

Also, anyone here saying "we know nothing" and can't predict anything is a moron and I'm sure I know where you get your news from and who you'll vote for in November. We can predict, with certainty, what this looks like moving ahead based on certain measures, like social distancing. And I was told yesterday from some well placed people that non-essential people would go back to work in 2 waves. First on July 1, second by mid-August. And even in that case, a fall re-emergence of the disease absent a vaccine or complete eradication would be likely and a shelter in place order would keep every locked up for the holidays.

 

I'd put my money on it's more likely we're still dealing with this well into the fall than Josh Allen exceeding a 62% completion rate and 30 TDs in any season. 

[plenzmd1]

3 hours ago, arcane said:

It's been bizarre to watch pessimism increase as our death toll looks more and more like its going to come in at a fraction of the best case scenarios of just two weeks ago.

i dunno, the market sure has seemed to reacted positively to the news over the last 10 trading days or so..and those guys also saw the poop hitting the fan before the rest of us did. 

7 minutes ago, zonabb said:

I won't attend a game without a vaccine or without the cases being down to zero. Risk health and life for sports, give me a break. To watch a bunch of millionaires make money but extracting it from our pockets and with our health on the line. No F. IN. WAY. I'll demand a refund from the Bills for my STs. 

 

Also, anyone here saying "we know nothing" and can't predict anything is a moron and I'm sure I know where you get your news from and who you'll vote for in November. We can predict, with certainty, what this looks like moving ahead based on certain measures, like social distancing. And I was told yesterday from some well placed people that non-essential people would go back to work in 2 waves. First on July 1, second by mid-August. And even in that case, a fall re-emergence of the disease absent a vaccine or complete eradication would be likely and a shelter in place order would keep every locked up for the holidays.

 

I'd put my money on it's more likely we're still dealing with this well into the fall than Josh Allen exceeding a 62% completion rate and 30 TDs in any season. 

I would be willing to bet all NFL teams will be doing some kind of refund if you request it, and still hold your tickets for the 21 season if games go on.

 

And no, we cannot predict with certainty anything that is going to happen, only a "insert your preferred noun here"would say such a thing. We have thje whole of the world just about looking for theraputics, trying to understand the virus and how it works, and how that plays out no one knows. 

 

 

[loveorhatembillsfan4life]

2 hours ago, nucci said:

what new deal?

Sorry I didn't mean new deal. HIs last year as of right now with the Bills is 2023..Does that move to 2024 if football isn't played in 2020

[billykay]

4 hours ago, Phil The Thrill said:

Interesting.... so how does this work with player contracts?  Are they “frozen?”  So if there is no NFL Season in 2020, does that mean Tre White is in his final year when he’s only played 3 seasons etc?  

What if some key players feel that it is too dangerous to play football during this virus period. Is the league going to play with diluted team rosters without some of the stars? What if the QB of one team has to be quarantined & the other team's QB can play? Do standings and stats mean anything? Are we going to root for the Bills when they play a team with half their roster quarantined?

This thing doesn't just make you sick. It also kills. What happens when a player actually dies from the virus? Wow, so many things to think about.

[Long Suffering Fan]

Quote

I won't attend a game without a vaccine or without the cases being down to zero. Risk health and life for sports, give me a break. To watch a bunch of millionaires make money but extracting it from our pockets and with our health on the line. No F. IN. WAY. I'll demand a refund from the Bills for my STs. 

 

And you should get your money back in that case, but that is not why I follow sports.  I may follow the millionaires and really appreciate some of them, but I go for the camaraderie, the shared good time, the common bond I have with complete strangers, etc.  No one tailgates for the sake of the millionaires.  We go because it brings us enjoyment.

 

I do hope you get your money back though.

 

Quote

Also, anyone here saying "we know nothing" and can't predict anything is a moron and I'm sure I know where you get your news from and who you'll vote for in November.

 

Please don't make it political.  This is my first day posting on TBD, but all the years I have read posts I never read it for politics.  Why would anyone do that?  :-)

 

I know doctors working in hospitals that say that there are really good signs and that we are way better off right now than we feared 2 weeks ago.  No one is a moron who says the we don't know for sure where we will be two weeks, much less two months from now.  It could take a turn for the better or for the worse.  There are positive signs for the better and that is what I am hoping for.

 

 

[Saxum]

5 hours ago, nucci said:

how do you determine who gets to go?

 

The way the NFL always does - whoever has the most money.  Every game will be priced like a Superbowl and when issue is over they will not want to let go of the money. 

 

In reality the NFL may be burning thru money trying to find some way to have a season.

I think it is more realistic to invest in CGI technology and have each player have a their own VR booth designed for an athlete - it measure heart rate, speed on treadmill, etc.  These are combined on screen for a game.