SI Article: forget about sports this year

[yungmack]

21 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

12,469 divided by 60.8 million is .0002, unless math has changed and I'm not aware of it. That is the US's mortality rate, I only used US numbers for both viruses. Also I did mention the final estimate of cases was going to be higher, but so will the deaths from it as places like NYC has had a ton of people dying in their homes and hospitals that were never tested and currently their deaths are not going into the final tally, but they will in the end. Again these numbers are straight from the CDC's own website. 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

 

 

 

 

The mortality rate among those actually infected is officially about 3%, which is extremely high. It is believed that both the infected and death numbers are much higher. For example, those dying at home, or without an official designation of infection, are not counted in the totals because they are not being tested.

[LABILLBACKER]

Once the vaccine or medication is finalized, sports will return as will everything else. And watching televised sports in empty venues is better than nothing at all.

3 minutes ago, yungmack said:

The mortality rate among those actually infected is officially about 3%, which is extremely high. It is believed that both the infected and death numbers are much higher. For example, those dying at home, or without an official designation of infection, are not counted in the totals because they are not being tested.

We won't know an accurate mortality rate until we know the asymptomatic cases added to the tested cases. Only the antibody test will reveal that.

[billsfan89]

25 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The biggest problem I think they'll face is that they are at the mercy of several different state governments. The California governor already came out and said football with fans at the stadium is not something he foresees in his state. So what happens if even a couple states with NFL teams are still shut down in September?  What if several teams can run training camps but others can't? I think the most likely scenario right now is there will be football but with key differences - a shortened offseason, possibly a delayed start to the season, no fans allowed, for some teams maybe all games played at a neutral location out of state. It's pretty hard to predict this stuff. What if we get this wave under control but a second wave hits after life gets back to normal? It's a distinct possibility that we get halfway through the season and then a player tests positive and the whole league gets shut down, like what happened with the NBA.

 

That is true but they have the luxury to wait 2 more months before having to make these decisions and 2 months is an eternity in this process. So much can change in that time, I agree that at least a month or two delay in the start of the season is likely at this point mainly to get rapid testing and wait out states easing restrictions. 

[TheFunPolice]

The world is not going to be shut down for months on end. There will be nothing left and we will have bigger problems than sports. 

 

 

 

[RyanC883]

what the heck is Sports Illustrated.  I've forgotten about SI since about the mid 2010.  So much better sports coverage out there now.  

[Logic]

3 hours ago, Gordio said:

 

 

I find it funny that anybody that posts stuff that is optimistic about the virus is blowing hot air but the doom and gloomers are all about facts.  I posted a fact that projected models were not only wrong, but criminally wrong.  When NYC opens up, & believe me it will open up before the summer starts, are they going to shut down the subways?  Not logistically possible.  They haven't even shut down the subways now.  Why can subways be open but sports can't.  People like you think irrational.  If you think this country could stay on lockdown thru the summer/fall your delusional.  There will be nothing left of the economy & the politicians know this.  

 

The projections were based on society continuing unabated. The only reason the numbers are vastly lower than the projections is because of fast and widespread social distancing. So what do you suppose happens when that ends?

[TheFunPolice]

In the end, we will probably end up being shut down from mid March to mid May, which us extraordinary in itself. Mid May is still a good 4 months away from mid September. For reference, 2 months ago was Valentine's Day, and hardly anyone here had COVID on their minds.

 

These "lockdowns" were always meant to be emergency, temporary measures. Lots of measures will probably remain, like protective gear in public, social distancing in stores, reduced hours, etc. I would also bet that many, many more people than we realize have come in contact with this virus and have developed some degree of immune response. 

 

I can certainly see some changes in the way stores, offices, and business operate to create space between people going forward. 

Edited April 14, 2020 by TheFunPolice

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

8 minutes ago, yungmack said:

The mortality rate among those actually infected is officially about 3%, which is extremely high. It is believed that both the infected and death numbers are much higher. For example, those dying at home, or without an official designation of infection, are not counted in the totals because they are not being tested.

 

Yes. Finally someone who knows what he's talking about with this. I agree with most of what you said, but using the lasted confirmed cases and people who died and were confirmed beforehand in the US the current mortality rate is 4% in the US(I'm not talking the whole World's numbers).

 

Being an essential worker(Actually handling COVID-19 test packages at UPS) & having a couple of underlying conditions that make me more susceptible to getting and dying from this virus I have practically have been studying this virus since early March.

[BillsFan17]

7 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

what the heck is Sports Illustrated.  I've forgotten about SI since about the mid 2010.  So much better sports coverage out there now.  

Doesn't negate that there was good content in the article from medical professionals and professionals in the science field.

 

Also, for all those that think its just as simple as get a vaccine and the world is back to normal... I truly am envious of the life you lead.

[CircleTheWagons99]

What happens with contracts if there is no season? 

[TheFunPolice]

1 minute ago, BillsFan17 said:

Doesn't negate that there was good content in the article from medical professionals and professionals in the science field.

 

Also, for all those that think its just as simple as get a vaccine and the world is back to normal... I truly am envious of the life you lead.

 

I think it's really more about finding treatments that are effective so that this becomes manageable. 

 

This isn't going away, but the entire modern way of life isn't going to end because of a virus, either. 

[soflabillsfan1]

3 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

Yes. Finally someone who knows what he's talking about with this. I agree with most of what you said, but using the lasted confirmed cases and people who died and were confirmed beforehand in the US the current mortality rate is 4% in the US(I'm not talking the whole World's numbers).

 

Being an essential worker(Actually handling COVID-19 test packages at UPS) & having a couple of underlying conditions that make me more susceptible to getting and dying from this virus I have practically have been studying this virus since early March.

You still can't do math though.

[BillsFan17]

3 hours ago, Gordio said:

 

 

I find it funny that anybody that posts stuff that is optimistic about the virus is blowing hot air but the doom and gloomers are all about facts.  I posted a fact that projected models were not only wrong, but criminally wrong.  When NYC opens up, & believe me it will open up before the summer starts, are they going to shut down the subways?  Not logistically possible.  They haven't even shut down the subways now.  Why can subways be open but sports can't.  People like you think irrational.  If you think this country could stay on lockdown thru the summer/fall your delusional.  There will be nothing left of the economy & the politicians know this.  

I'm the biggest this is overblown person out there. I firmly am very entrenched that there is a lot of fear mongering, there is a lot of uncertainty being passed off as doom and gloom instead of optimism. However, models aside, the death tolls are still very high for something we know so little about.

 

The economy needs to come back, but that is a debate if whether we are willing to deal with the death tolls, or not, and who is willing to bear that responsibility. Especially without any true studies done on this.

 

 

[JaCrispy]

2 minutes ago, CircleTheWagons99 said:

What happens with contracts if there is no season? 

I would assume no year accrued? ??‍♂️

Edited April 14, 2020 by JaCrispy

[Captain Hindsight]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Until those game checks don't come....

It also might not be up to the players or NFL...

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

 

The projections were based on society continuing unabated. The only reason the numbers are vastly lower than the projections is because of fast and widespread social distancing. So what do you suppose happens when that ends?

 

Absolutely. The numbers were actually based on 50% following the social distancing guidelines, but the government has already said most people did what they were asked to do, thus bringing down the numbers. 

 

Come summer time there is probably a good chance this dies down some, but not go away much like the flu. But what happens in the fall when the 2nd wave is suppose to start and in the winter when the much bigger 3rd wave comes? Chances are a vaccine will not be ready until early to mid next year.

[BillsFan17]

1 minute ago, TheFunPolice said:

 

I think it's really more about finding treatments that are effective so that this becomes manageable. 

 

This isn't going away, but the entire modern way of life isn't going to end because of a virus, either. 

As it shouldn't, the world didnt stop for other pandemics, sure as ish doesnt stop for the flu, but treatments aren't going to be found over night and moreover, without a true scientific process... who knows how effective the treatment will be and what long term side effects will be.

 

Plus, we currently live in a country where a good chunk of people refuse to vaccinate from the outset. The same country who cant get everyone on the same page with distancing, wearing mask, staying quarantined, etc...

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

11 minutes ago, soflabillsfan1 said:

You still can't do math though.

 

Well I can do math, but I forgot to slide the decimal point 2 spots over when converting to percentage. You are correct on the .02%. Based on current numbers COVID-19 is still 200 times more deadly if you catch it.

[MJS]

58 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

No, no it's not. It's straight from the CDC's own website. I only used US's numbers as for most US citizens that's what effects our day to day life. I did use words like confirmed cases for COVID-19 as there hasn't been time for the experts to come up with any real estimates, but that also means only confirmed deaths as many are dying in their houses and in hospitals that never got tested, therefore haven't been a confirmed case. All this will be looked at when they come up with their final estimates once this is all over.

Yes it is. Your mortality rate is incorrect for H1N1, for starters.

 

And tell me, how do you calculate mortality rate without knowing the number of cases for COVID-19? I'll tell you: you can't. The number cited is only based on known, confirmed cases, which means it virtually only includes severe cases. The final mortality rate will be easily below 2% and likely below 1%.

[416BillsFan]

Ugh, can't Dr. Fauchi sign Ryan Fitzpatrick as COVID's backup so it goes away?