SI Article: forget about sports this year

[billsfan89]

The NFL has the luxury of time, they can wait 8 weeks until mid-June to make a final decision on the season. Unlike the other 3 major sports leagues which are losing time in their seasons now. However the NFL might have to make some difficult decisions then but there are just far too many variables for them to wait through. 

[MJS]

1 minute ago, Captain Hindsight said:

They look at worst case scenarios. They wont get that high because we practiced social distancing and listened to medical people 

No, it's that projecting things without having even 5% of the data is impossible (projections even with 100% of the data are still inacurate because most data are volatile). And things such as death rate and hospitalization rate can't be calculated until you have the total number of cases, which even now is impossible to know. We won't really know those things until more than a year after the pandemic has passed.

[Don Otreply]

26 minutes ago, PetermansRedemption said:

Yes, it absolutely is easier to control 300 people than 70,000. They don’t have to follow any rules if they don’t want to, that is their right. They can run around town every night of the week. The only time they will be isolated is the day before game day after they get their rapid test. They aren’t living in isolation for the entire season. 

 Not following the “rules” is why our country has more deaths from C-19 than any other country.  Nuthin but luv for ya...  

 

Stay healthy, stay smart Bills Nation!!!

 

[billsfan89]

6 minutes ago, MJS said:

Disease predictions are always incredibly inflated. Go look at the swine flu projections. We didn't even get to 10% of those numbers. And we won't for coronavirus either.

 

They model based on the worst case scenario and no action taken. They then project forward based on action taken, the models have been pretty accurate as they get adjusted to the actions the nation/states have taken. 

[Long Suffering Fan]

Hi, I read TBD almost every day.  Thanks everyone for posting!  I really enjoy the extra content this site brings.  I'm posting today for the first time only because I would feel guilty if I didn't.  There is some good news out there.  It just hasn't gotten a lot of traction yet.  I know a few people in the medical field.  They tell me:

 

- They were going to have to all do shifts in NYC to help out, but all of that has been cancelled.  They no longer need the help.

- Their hospital, which normally runs at 120% capacity, is currently at 50%.  I know that is because elective procedures have been cancelled, but a few weeks ago there was a real fear that that space was needed to handle the influx of covid patients.  

- This is causing some doctors to be laid off.  Think about that.  We are in the middle of a health crisis and we are able to lay off some of our health professionals.

- Out in Washington State they are dismantling a temporary field hospital they built and returning ventilators back to the supply.

- A friend of mine believes she has Coronavirus.  When she went in to get tested, they sent her home without a test and told her that, at this point, they would not treat her any different if she tested positive.  I know that, at first glance, that sounds like bad news, but it shows that we have seen these improvements while we still don't even have wide spread testing yet.  It also means that any fatality percentage numbers we are seeing are skewed when we are not even testing people with symptoms.

- Another doctor told me that they believe the mortality rate of this disease will be in the area of 0.3% to 0.5%, which is way lower than we feared.  

- He pointed me to Iceland and the UAE as examples since they have done so well with testing.  Most everyone there with symptoms is being tested.  Iceland has tested over 10% of its population.  They have 8 deaths and 1711 cases.  The UAE has tested 6.5% of their population.  They have 25 deaths and 4521 cases.

- This likely means that many more in America have already had the disease.

 

All of this is very positive news, so take heart.  2-3 weeks ago, it looked like it could have been MUCH worse than this.  We still have a long way to go, but things look much brighter than they did at one point.

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, wiseman3 said:

If you think there won't be sports, then you have to accept that there won't be school as well. What is the difference between thousands of students packing into schools every day and thousands of fans packing a stadium once a week? 

There is a chance this can happen, sad as that is, we can only play the cards life deals...

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

2 hours ago, BillsVet said:

No one knows nuthin bout nuthin and these doom and gloom articles are nonsense at this point.  It's kinda like running presidential polls in February when the election is in November.

 

Sports will return and this will pass.  I cannot imagine the rabid NFL fans sitting idly by and not being able to tailgate.  That will not go over well.  

 

I still remember tailgating in the fall of 2009 amid the H1N1 virus.  People were scared but out and about.  

 

 

 

H1N1 was around for a full year and was highly contagious, but had a very, very low mortality rate. The US CDC has estimated the US cases at 60.8 million with 12,469 people dying from the disease. Covid-19 has been around for a couple of months with 588,469 confirmed cases(Estimates later on will bring this number higher) with 23,711 confirmed deaths. Again though later estimates of the dead will go much higher as people dying at home & hospitals that were/are untested are not going into the final tally.

 

These are 2 totally different viruses with 2 totally different mortality rates. Covid-19's mortality rate is currently 4.0% while H1N1's was .0002%. Covid-19's mortality rate is 20,000 times higher. In comparison if the same 4% died from H1N1 there would've been over 2.43 million deaths. This isn't an apples to apples comparison. The easiest way to look at it is the World didn't shutdown for H1N1 like it has for the Covid-19 virus. The last time the US shutdown to a pandemic, I believe, was in 1918. Covid-19 has been repeatedly called a once in a century pandemic.

[soflabillsfan1]

3 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

H1N1 was around for a full year and was highly contagious, but had a very, very low mortality rate. The US CDC has estimated the US cases at 60.8 million with 12,469 people dying from the disease. Covid-19 has been around for a couple of months with 588,469 confirmed cases(Estimates later on will bring this number higher) with 23,711 confirmed deaths. Again though later estimates of the dead will go much higher as people dying at home & hospitals that were/are untested are not going into the final tally.

 

These are 2 totally different viruses with 2 totally different mortality rates. Covid-19's mortality rate is currently 4.0% while H1N1's was .0002%. Covid-19's mortality rate is 20,000 times higher. In comparison if the same 4% died from H1N1 there would've been over 2.43 million deaths. This isn't an apples to apples comparison. The easiest way to look at it is the World didn't shutdown for H1N1 like it has for the Covid-19 virus. The last time the US shutdown to a pandemic, I believe, was in 1918. Covid-19 has been repeatedly called a once in a century pandemic.

This is all wrong.  First off, covid-19 mortality rate is going to be most likely less then 1% when the numbers are adjusted for all the people that had it and never got tested or even knew.  Secondly H1N1 had a mortality rate of .02% not .0002%.  Corona virus is not 20000 times more deadly like you're saying.  Just totally wrong.

[HappyDays]

35 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

if the original predictions did not include social distancing then they are not as smart as you think they are.

 

The original predictions were made in that way to encourage social distancing and as a result we were able to get the virus relatively under control. Epidemiological predictions aren't made in a vacuum.

[Mr Info]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

There are already multiple treatments (specifically those currently used to treat Malaria and Ebola) which are already being prescribed by doctors for critically-ill patients and proving to be very effective against this virus. 

 

link(s) for the ‘very effective’ part of this for C19 critically ill or otherwise?

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

8 minutes ago, soflabillsfan1 said:

This is all wrong.  First off, covid-19 mortality rate is going to be most likely less then 1% when the numbers are adjusted for all the people that had it and never got tested or even knew.  Secondly H1N1 had a mortality rate of .02% not .0002%.  Corona virus is not 20000 times more deadly like you're saying.  Just totally wrong.

 

12,469 divided by 60.8 million is .0002, unless math has changed and I'm not aware of it. That is the US's mortality rate, I only used US numbers for both viruses. Also I did mention the final estimate of cases was going to be higher, but so will the deaths from it as places like NYC has had a ton of people dying in their homes and hospitals that were never tested and currently their deaths are not going into the final tally, but they will in the end. Again these numbers are straight from the CDC's own website. 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

 

 

 

 

Edited April 14, 2020 by LOVEMESOMEBILLS

[soflabillsfan1]

Just now, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

12,469 divided by 60.8 million is .0002, unless math has changed and I'm not aware of it. That is the US's mortality rate, I only used US numbers for both viruses. Also I did mention the final estimate of cases was going to be higher, but so will the deaths from it as places like NYC has had a ton of people dying in their homes and hospitals that were never tested and currently their deaths are not going into the final tally, but they will in the end. Again these numbers are straight from the CDC's own website. 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

 

 

 

 

.0002 is not .0002% like you said.  There's a big difference.

[MJS]

18 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

H1N1 was around for a full year and was highly contagious, but had a very, very low mortality rate. The US CDC has estimated the US cases at 60.8 million with 12,469 people dying from the disease. Covid-19 has been around for a couple of months with 588,469 confirmed cases(Estimates later on will bring this number higher) with 23,711 confirmed deaths. Again though later estimates of the dead will go much higher as people dying at home & hospitals that were/are untested are not going into the final tally.

 

These are 2 totally different viruses with 2 totally different mortality rates. Covid-19's mortality rate is currently 4.0% while H1N1's was .0002%. Covid-19's mortality rate is 20,000 times higher. In comparison if the same 4% died from H1N1 there would've been over 2.43 million deaths. This isn't an apples to apples comparison. The easiest way to look at it is the World didn't shutdown for H1N1 like it has for the Covid-19 virus. The last time the US shutdown to a pandemic, I believe, was in 1918. Covid-19 has been repeatedly called a once in a century pandemic.

A lot of what you posted is incorrect. Check your data again.

[HappyDays]

32 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

The NFL has the luxury of time, they can wait 8 weeks until mid-June to make a final decision on the season. Unlike the other 3 major sports leagues which are losing time in their seasons now. However the NFL might have to make some difficult decisions then but there are just far too many variables for them to wait through. 

 

The biggest problem I think they'll face is that they are at the mercy of several different state governments. The California governor already came out and said football with fans at the stadium is not something he foresees in his state. So what happens if even a couple states with NFL teams are still shut down in September?  What if several teams can run training camps but others can't? I think the most likely scenario right now is there will be football but with key differences - a shortened offseason, possibly a delayed start to the season, no fans allowed, for some teams maybe all games played at a neutral location out of state. It's pretty hard to predict this stuff. What if we get this wave under control but a second wave hits after life gets back to normal? It's a distinct possibility that we get halfway through the season and then a player tests positive and the whole league gets shut down, like what happened with the NBA.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

Just now, MJS said:

A lot of what you posted is incorrect. Check your data again.

 

No, no it's not. It's straight from the CDC's own website. I only used US's numbers as for most US citizens that's what effects our day to day life. I did use words like confirmed cases for COVID-19 as there hasn't been time for the experts to come up with any real estimates, but that also means only confirmed deaths as many are dying in their houses and in hospitals that never got tested, therefore haven't been a confirmed case. All this will be looked at when they come up with their final estimates once this is all over.

[yungmack]

2 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Well, somebody isn’t bothering to stay current.

China has already opened up Baseball, Japan Baseball is in Spring Training and South Korea is about to begin play.

And the virus in China is resurging. 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

2 hours ago, nucci said:

how do you determine who gets to go?

For the World Cup back in 2006 I had to enter a lottery system and then was told which match I would get a ticket to, I had no choice in the matter—I’m sure a similar lottery type system would also work in this scenario—you pick the team, they pick which game by lottery you get, or something along those lines?

[loveorhatembillsfan4life]

Sorry if this was asked somewhere else but what happens to player contracts if unfortunately there is a lost season? Would Diggs new deal start in 2021?

[nucci]

1 minute ago, loveorhatembillsfan4life said:

Sorry if this was asked somewhere else but what happens to player contracts if unfortunately there is a lost season? Would Diggs new deal start in 2021?

what new deal?

[SF Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

Just now, loveorhatembillsfan4life said:

Sorry if this was asked somewhere else but what happens to player contracts if unfortunately there is a lost season? Would Diggs new deal start in 2021?

I was wondering the same thing.