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QB Class of ‘18 Stats and Evals going into year three


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With two years under their belts, it's reasonable to look back at the top six QBs taken in the 2018 Draft.  I listed the pertinent stats for the first two seasons, where I think they’re ranked with each other, and where I think they are heading into year three.

 

Draft Rd - Overall pick #        Game Starts  Record

1-1    Baker Mayfield                       29             12-19

1-3    Sam Darnold                          26             11-15

1-7    Josh Allen                               27             15-12

1-10  Josh Rosen                            16               3-13

1-32   Lamar Jackson                     22               19-3

3-76   Mason Rudolph                      8                  5-3

 

TD/INT          '18           '19       Comp %  '18       '19 

Mayfield      27/14      22/21                  63.8      59.4

Darnold       17/15      19/13                  57.7      61.9

Allen            10/12      20/9                     52.8      58.8

Rosen          11/14      1/5                       55.2      53.2

Jackson        6/3         36/6                    58.2      66.1

Rudolph           *          13/9                        *         62.2

 

Pass  Attempts / Yds      '18                      '19 

Mayfield                      486  /  3725       534  /  3827

Darnold                       414  /  2865        441  /  3024

Allen                            320  /  2074        461  /  3089

Rosen                          217  /  2278        58    /  567

Jackson                      170  /  1201        401  /  3127

Rudolph                                *                  283  /  1765

 

 Rush Attempts /Yds/TD    '18                   '19    

Mayfield                        39 /131/ 0          28 /141/ 3

Darnold                         44 / 138 / 1           3 /62/ 2

Allen                              89 / 631 / 8       109 /510/9

Rosen                            23 / 138 / 0         3 / 13 / 0

Jackson .                     147/ 695/ 5       176/1206 /7

Rudolph                                 *                   21 / 2 / 0 

 

1.) JACKSON     No argument, Lamar Jackson has been the steal of the 2018 draft and is the best QB in the draft class so far.  People who say he is just a running QB haven't watched that guy play. He can sling the rock and has the highest completion percentage at a fat 66.1%. The only concern I have is the same one everyone else has, how many seasons can the guy rush 150+ times without eventually getting hammered.  On most plays Jackson is able to dictate the contact at the end of the run.  He rarely takes a hard shot, he's too shifty or he gets out of bounds.  It's a law of averages thing though.  He is not only exposed to the dangers every QB has back in the pocket, but he also has all the extra exposure to hits when he runs.  He's not 6'5" and 230 lbs like Allen is.  You need to have an elite defense to contain Jackson and there aren't too many of them around the League.  I'm sure defenses around the NFL will get better at defending him and he won't be as much of a video game going forward, but no one can deny the guy is a hell of QB and he is with a franchise that is smart enough to maximize his abilities. 

 

2.) ALLEN    Josh Allen is the 2nd best QB in the class and (I hope) has not reached his ceiling yet.  Allen took a step forward in nearly every statistical category.  Looking at all the statistics, Allen clearly made the biggest jump from his rookie year to his second year of any QB on the list. Year three is huge, fingers crossed. I'm not going to beat a dead horse about Allen here.  We all know Josh's strengths and weaknesses, in year three he needs to improve his long ball, protect the ball better when he runs, and be able to identify the blitz and hit the hot route. If he can get better at those three things, then we are in good shape for a decade here. I'm happy Josh Allen is a Buffalo Bill.

 

3.) MAYFIELD    Baker Mayfield is an NFL quality starting QB who I think is near his ceiling.  He took a step backwards in year two.  He went backwards in almost every statistical category. He should play better this year without Kitchens there, but I think his 2018 season is about as good as it will get.  His emotional immaturity will offset his undeniable physical talent. You have to be even keeled to be a QB in the NFL. There is simply too much pressure involved week to week. His personality is anything but even keeled.  He doesn't have the maturity it takes to lead an NFL locker room or franchise to long term success.  

 

4.) DARNOLD     Darnold looks like an NFL QB to me too.  I think that Darnold overall is probably a better QB than Mayfield, but being on the Jets is a huge anchor hanging around Darnold's neck.  So while I'd like to have him the 3rd QB in the rankings ahead of Mayfield, Darnold is a victim of circumstance and falls to 4th.  Darnold was not snake bit to the extent that Rosen was, but Darnold is trapped in a dysfunctional franchise with Adam Gase at the helm.  He has played behind the #25th and #28th ranked O-Lines his first two years and has had limited skill players around him. Darnold still managed to get better in most statistical categories from year one to year two despite the horrible supporting cast. The Jets new GM, Joe Douglas, is an Ozzie Newsome protege and is trying to right the ship, but that roster needs big help.  If Darnold went to a different team in the Draft, even to Buffalo, I think Darnold could be a real franchise QB.  Darnold and Rosen are great examples of how important the situation a QB steps into is for their future success.  In my mind, Darnold's chances of future success hang on how long it takes for Douglas to rebuild that roster and fire Adam Gase.

 

5.) RUDOLPH   Rudolph?  Too little data to say.  He played well when he had a chance. I don't suspect that he will be the "answer" when Big Ben finally hangs it up. He will probably hang on in the NFL holding a clip board for a few years, but I suspect that at the end of his career,  Mason Rudolph will be best remembered as the guy who Myles Garrett clobbered in the head with a helmet.

 

6.) ROSEN    Love him or hate him, the guy never had a real shot to succeed and probably never will.  He'll hold a clipboard for a few more years and he'll be out of the League and probably ends up depressed,  bitter, and a frequent flyer on TMZ.

 

 

Edited by Inigo Montoya
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43 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Cam Newton got hurt running too much. I don't think size matters that much in terms of injury risk while running. Wilson is tiny but eludes the big hits with slides and getting out of bounds. Allen needs to run less but not completely eliminate it from his game.

Mcnair was a big boy too, I think he was close to 240 and some of the hits he took were brutal, I think he got his sternum cracked by a hit from a chiefs DL. LJ and Josh are both a hit away from being out for a long time. I don't want josh to completely eliminate it from his game either but I really want him to slide more.

 

-Also, great write up OP. Stay safe everyone!

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1 hour ago, BruceVilanch said:

Mcnair was a big boy too, I think he was close to 240 and some of the hits he took were brutal, I think he got his sternum cracked by a hit from a chiefs DL. LJ and Josh are both a hit away from being out for a long time. I don't want josh to completely eliminate it from his game either but I really want him to slide more.

 

-Also, great write up OP. Stay safe everyone!

My sternum was cracked as a teenager. I still deal with problems from that injury 15 years later.

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Jim McMahon was a really good QB who never slid either.

 

It cost him his career as he was injured not playing for far too often and his team a chance at an undefeated season in 1985.

 

For the above posters who say that Allen should be more judicious in his running............. are correct, or he could be the next Jim McMahon.

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8 minutes ago, MJS said:

My sternum was cracked as a teenager. I still deal with problems from that injury 15 years later.

I can't imagine cracking it, I took a line drive to the chest when I was pitching in highschool and the bone bruise still hurt to the touch almost a year later. Sorry to hear you're still dealing with it today. 

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33 minutes ago, BruceVilanch said:

I can't imagine cracking it, I took a line drive to the chest when I was pitching in highschool and the bone bruise still hurt to the touch almost a year later. Sorry to hear you're still dealing with it today. 

I have a good life and literally nothing to complain about, so don't feel bad for me. Just some mild pain and discomfort every once in awhile. Doesn't prevent me from doing anything.

Edited by MJS
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9 minutes ago, MJS said:

I have a good life and literally nothing to complain about, so don't feel bad for me. Just some mild pain and discomfort every once in awhile. Doesn't prevent me from doing anything.

 

                                                         MJS doing the Triple Lindy!!!

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

                                                         MJS doing the Triple Lindy!!!

 

 

I'd say there are other things preventing me from doing that...

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1 hour ago, MJS said:

My sternum was cracked as a teenager. I still deal with problems from that injury 15 years later.


That’s a big ouch.  I can’t imagine how difficult it must have been to breathe.  I had a severe bruise between my ribs and that was hard enough.  As a tangent, this is one of 5e reasons the combine is a problem waiting t9 happen with the bench press.  I competed at a national level in powerlifting for 14 years, and in college, one of my close friends older brothers was benching 375 lbs. training for UB football and cracked his sternum.  Ended his football career.  Just so stupid seeing these kids slamming the 225 lbs off their chests.

 

As it pertains To Allen and running, I thought he evaded many more hits in 19 vs. 18.  I’m hopeful he continues to follow what Russel Wilson does as he uses his legs but gets rid of it, passes or runs to get a few yards and gets out of bounds.  That’s why it’s hard to say, Allen stop running.

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The way I see it, Lamar is currently in one tier at the top. Rudolph and Rosen are in another at the bottom. You can order the other 3 any way you want and I won't complain much. I like our guy and he's the only one of the 3 that clearly improved in year 2 (though I think you can argue Darnold improved despite the absolutely disastrous Patriots game). But Allen also started out firmly behind Baker after Year 1.

 

I think I'd go Allen-Darnold-Baker, but as I said, those three are jumbled together right now IMO.

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6 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Allen clearly made the biggest jump from his rookie year to his second year of any QB on the list.

Uhhh, except for the guy you put as #1.

 

I think its Jackson #1 and then Darnold/Allen/Mayfield are all tied for 2nd at this point in terms of ability to play QB. The Bills are just a much more complete team/organization than the Jets and Browns. Year three will show the trend, does Allen continue to rise and Baker continue to fall? We shall see.

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7 minutes ago, jletha said:

Uhhh, except for the guy you put as #1.

 

I think its Jackson #1 and then Darnold/Allen/Mayfield are all tied for 2nd at this point in terms of ability to play QB. The Bills are just a much more complete team/organization than the Jets and Browns. Year three will show the trend, does Allen continue to rise and Baker continue to fall? We shall see.

 

Jackson didn't improve much from year one to year two because he just continued playing at the same incredibly high level he played his rookie year.  Jackson started the last seven games for the Ravens his rookie year and went 6-1.  The only loss in his rookie year was a 3 point loss playing on the road in KC against Mahomes, 27-24.   

 

I'll stand by my assertion that Allen improved the most. 

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11 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

Jackson didn't improve much from year one to year two because he just continued playing at the same incredibly high level he played his rookie year.  Jackson started the last seven games for the Ravens his rookie year and went 6-1.  The only loss in his rookie year was a 3 point loss playing on the road in KC against Mahomes, 27-24.   

 

I'll stand by my assertion that Allen improved the most. 

 

Jackson went from 58 to 66% in completion percentage. Yards per game went up. Yards per attempt differential was higher than Allen. In almost every passing category he improved over the other guys.

 

His TDs per game throwing drastically improved. Same with TD%

 

Rushing: Yards per carry and yards per game went up, Allen's went down.

 

This isn't close. Jackson by far is the most improved runner and passer. Allen did improve but Jackson wins by a landslide.

Edited by BigBillsFan
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20 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Jackson went from 58 to 66% in completion percentage. Yards per game went up. Yards per attempt differential was higher than Allen. In almost every passing category he improved over the other guys.

 

Rushing: Yards per carry and yards per game went up, Allen's went down.

 

This isn't close. Jackson by far is the most improved runner and passer. Allen did improve but Jackson wins by a landslide.

 

We may have to agree to disagree.  The stats don't tell the entire story.  Lamar Jackson was a top 5 QB at the end of his rookie year and he was top 5 QB his second year.  He is a phenom like Mahomes.

 

Josh Allen showed promise his rookie year, but his play was erratic.  Did some things that were great and followed it up with a boneheaded play that was inexplicable.  He couldn't throw short or intermediate passes to save his life. He would make one read and then tuck the ball and run.  He finished the year 5-7.  Year two Allen looked like a real QB.  He only threw 9 picks the entire year, he only threw 2 picks after week 5 of the season. He became one of the most accurate short and intermediate range passers in the NFL.  He finished the year 10-6 and he would have finished 11-5 if they had let him and the starters play in the regular season finale against the Jets. 

 

Was Jackson the better QB?  Hell yes.  Did Allen improve more year one to year two?  Hell yes 

 

Edited by Inigo Montoya
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1 hour ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

We may have to agree to disagree.  The stats don't tell the entire story.  Lamar Jackson was a top 5 QB at the end of his rookie year and he was top 5 QB his second year.  He is a phenom like Mahomes.

 

Josh Allen showed promise his rookie year, but his play was erratic.  Did some things that were great and followed it up with a boneheaded play that was inexplicable.  He couldn't throw short or intermediate passes to save his life. He would make one read and then tuck the ball and run.  He finished the year 5-7.  Year two Allen looked like a real QB.  He only threw 9 picks the entire year, he only threw 2 picks after week 5 of the season. He became one of the most accurate short and intermediate range passers in the NFL.  He finished the year 10-6 and he would have finished 11-5 if they had let him and the starters play in the regular season finale against the Jets. 

 

Was Jackson the better QB?  Hell yes.  Did Allen improve more year one to year two?  Hell yes 

 

 

I see so you are counting the invariable things. That makes a lot of sense actually, and while I disagree with you overall (only because I thought Jackson could barely throw the ball last year) I can see why you believe that based on how much Allen did improve based on decision making which did grow by leaps and bounds.

 

Good insights brother.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I still don’t know how whether Baltimore’s offense will be sustainable and put up the same number this year.   We’ll see what happens. 
 

I think the fact that Josh’s numbers are close Mayfield and Darnold, shows that he’s been better than a lot of draft experts projected.  Still a lot of work to do 

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