If the NFL started from scratch today...

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

57 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I can not see any scenario where a RB would go top 10, especially since top end RBs will easily be there in rounds 2 through 5 without question as teams focus on QB and the trenches first.  

 

'I have Josh Allen going top 10 without question IMO.  Not every GM needs to believe in him, just one on the board in the top 10 does and right now I would bet good money that the majority of the league sees Allen as a rising star who is a fiery and competitive leader, more than say a limited QB who is a passing liability.  

 

My top 10 predictions would be:

1. Patrick Mahomes - Duh
2. Russell Wilson - I think he edges out Watson given he likely still has 5 to 7 top end years left and he is the better player right now
3. Deshaun Watson - I think he edges Lamar out given he's more of a QB and more coaches know how to build an offense for him rather than Lamar
4. Lamar Jackson - He may not go this high, would depend on the team picking given he needs an offense specifically built for him, but given his MVP season I am still putting him here
5. Nick Bosa - Best young defensive player in the NFL.  He goes before Donald IMO as I think Bosa makes a bigger impact on win total than Donald does.  A total mistake IMO to not take a QB, but some GM is going to be enamored with Bosa and the impact he made as a rookie and take a guy on his way to being a top 5 overall player in the NFL.  
6. Josh Allen - Has one of the highest and brightest ceilings, if not the top ceiling, of just about any young QB not named Mahomes.  Youth and his significant improvements over his first 2 seasons and still being a dual threat makes him go early.
7. Kyler Murray - Lived up to the hype and has a lot of upside, I think GM's here go for the upside over a more proven veteran.  
8. Dak Prescott - I am not the biggest Dak guy, but I think looking at whats on the boards and his personal stats, GM's will look his way over other veterans as he is younger than most of them.
9. Carson Wentz - Not a big believer in him due to health issues, but teams are going to look for a QB early early early with all the runs on them and he has the talent, even though the body is not to be trusted.  A team rolls the dice here that they can keep him healthier and this team I would look to invest early and heavy on OL after drafting Wentz.
10. Aaron Donald - Best DT in the NFL goes with less appealing QB options still on the board.  IMO anyone not taking a QB in the top 10 is headed in a bad direction as the pickings by round 2 are going to be very slim, especially if this is a snake draft.  But some GM is going to want the elite player in Donald rather than say someone from the Tier 2 pool (or even what some wold rank as tier 3) of QB's.  

NOTE:  I did the list above based on how I think a top 10 would go with 10 GM's drafting.  

 

If I was going to do this draft personally, I would draft Josh Allen at #4, and if not there certainly at #5.  I am sure I will get a lot of "homer biased" comments for that, but I truly believe Josh Allen has a brighter career future than Lamar.  I really like Lamar, but honestly, I have seen gimmick systems like Baltimore ran last year work very well early but lack sustainability once the rest of the league catches on with defending it.  And I truly believe the combo of the Niners and Bills games last year in back to back weeks gave the NFL the blueprint to slow down that offense.  And I am not sold that Lamar can be consistent enough in the pocket once teams neutralize the run all the time offense.  

Please apply for the position of scouting director-----> for the Patriots. The only Josh Allen to possibly go in the first round plays for the JAGS

[Logic]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I can not see any scenario where a RB would go top 10, especially since top end RBs will easily be there in rounds 2 through 5 without question as teams focus on QB and the trenches first.  

 

'I have Josh Allen going top 10 without question IMO.  Not every GM needs to believe in him, just one on the board in the top 10 does and right now I would bet good money that the majority of the league sees Allen as a rising star who is a fiery and competitive leader, more than say a limited QB who is a passing liability.  

 

My top 10 predictions would be:

1. Patrick Mahomes - Duh
2. Russell Wilson - I think he edges out Watson given he likely still has 5 to 7 top end years left and he is the better player right now
3. Deshaun Watson - I think he edges Lamar out given he's more of a QB and more coaches know how to build an offense for him rather than Lamar
4. Lamar Jackson - He may not go this high, would depend on the team picking given he needs an offense specifically built for him, but given his MVP season I am still putting him here
5. Nick Bosa - Best young defensive player in the NFL.  He goes before Donald IMO as I think Bosa makes a bigger impact on win total than Donald does.  A total mistake IMO to not take a QB, but some GM is going to be enamored with Bosa and the impact he made as a rookie and take a guy on his way to being a top 5 overall player in the NFL.  
6. Josh Allen - Has one of the highest and brightest ceilings, if not the top ceiling, of just about any young QB not named Mahomes.  Youth and his significant improvements over his first 2 seasons and still being a dual threat makes him go early.
7. Kyler Murray - Lived up to the hype and has a lot of upside, I think GM's here go for the upside over a more proven veteran.  
8. Dak Prescott - I am not the biggest Dak guy, but I think looking at whats on the boards and his personal stats, GM's will look his way over other veterans as he is younger than most of them.
9. Carson Wentz - Not a big believer in him due to health issues, but teams are going to look for a QB early early early with all the runs on them and he has the talent, even though the body is not to be trusted.  A team rolls the dice here that they can keep him healthier and this team I would look to invest early and heavy on OL after drafting Wentz.
10. Aaron Donald - Best DT in the NFL goes with less appealing QB options still on the board.  IMO anyone not taking a QB in the top 10 is headed in a bad direction as the pickings by round 2 are going to be very slim, especially if this is a snake draft.  But some GM is going to want the elite player in Donald rather than say someone from the Tier 2 pool (or even what some wold rank as tier 3) of QB's.  

NOTE:  I did the list above based on how I think a top 10 would go with 10 GM's drafting.  

 

If I was going to do this draft personally, I would draft Josh Allen at #4, and if not there certainly at #5.  I am sure I will get a lot of "homer biased" comments for that, but I truly believe Josh Allen has a brighter career future than Lamar.  I really like Lamar, but honestly, I have seen gimmick systems like Baltimore ran last year work very well early but lack sustainability once the rest of the league catches on with defending it.  And I truly believe the combo of the Niners and Bills games last year in back to back weeks gave the NFL the blueprint to slow down that offense.  And I am not sold that Lamar can be consistent enough in the pocket once teams neutralize the run all the time offense.  

 

Fair enough. 

 

A few things: my list wasn’t how I personally would pick it, it’s how I think an unbiased draft might look. 

 

Saying that Josh Allen would be picked in the top 10? I simply don’t believe that in a pool of ALL NFL players, Josh Allen would go in the top 10. Looking at it without my Bills-colored glasses on, I just don’t buy it.

 

You May be right about no RB going in the top 10, but CMC is coming off a 1,000 yard rushing, 1,000 yard receiving season. That’s rarified air, as evidenced by the massive contract extension he signed today.

 

All in all, if you asked 20 people to do this exercise, I bet you’d get 20 different answers.

[whatdrought]

19 hours ago, Logic said:

My mock top 10 picks if the NFL started from scratch tomorrow (I took age into account, because these teams are starting from scratch, so old dudes seem like bad picks):

1. Patrick Mahomes
2. Deshaun Watson
3. Russell Wilson (a bit old at 31, but figure we can get a good decade out of him)
4. Lamar Jackson
5. Carson Wentz
6. Kyler Murray
7. Aaron Donald
8. Myles Garrett

9. Nick Bosa
10. Christian McCaffrey

Note: This is clearly just for fun because I'm bored out of my mind in quarantine. Would be interesting to see how many players got picked before the first non-QB came off the board. For what it's worth, I do not believe Josh Allen would be among the first 32 picks.

 

I can't agree with this. If the entire league was at zero, the top 20 QB's (however you want to rank them) would go 1-20 at least.

 

If you have the 10th pick and you're building a team from scratch, would you rather have Josh Allen and Joe Mixon rd 1 and 2, or Christian McCaffery and Matt Barkley? QB is such a premium that I think realistically the first 32 picks would be QB's.

[The Jokeman]

21 hours ago, buffalobillswin said:

Well it would be a QB heavy first round and I'd bet guys like Joe Burrow and Tua would go in the first round and over Josh.

Burrow maybe but Tua nope as injury and size concerns.

[hjnick]

It's a great concept and I'd love to vote/draft in this...

 

If I was going logically, I would use the following criteria:

 

1) Young or in the prime of their career

2) Priority of the position in question

3) ELITE (or projected to be) at their position

4) Scarcity of the number of ELITE and above avg players at their position

 

 

[Billl]

41 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

 

I can't agree with this. If the entire league was at zero, the top 20 QB's (however you want to rank them) would go 1-20 at least.

 

If you have the 10th pick and you're building a team from scratch, would you rather have Josh Allen and Joe Mixon rd 1 and 2, or Christian McCaffery and Matt Barkley? QB is such a premium that I think realistically the first 32 picks would be QB's.

Matt Barkley literally wouldn’t be a top 500 pick.  I’d rather have Aaron Donald at 20 and Mitch Trubisky at 42 than say Teddy Bridgewater and Travis Kelce.  The difference between the projected 15 and 30 at the QB spot is small enough that you can pretty much draw them out of a hat.

[Watkins101]

I would think to make this  a fairish draft, you would have to do something like 123...30,31,32,32,31,30...2,1,1,2...30,31,32,32,31...

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, FireChans said:

Yeah, no way Josh goes before Dak or Wentz. Like no way. And AD would go before Bosa.

I disagree, respectfully.  Wentz  is very high risk player and living off of one partial season.  Dak, well I think I’m less a believer in Dak as most, and I think he’s peaked.  Personally, I think Allen is clearly gonna be one who splits opinions, but only one GM inside the top 10 needs to believe in him, and I think there are quite a few who see him as a rising star.  If Bills picked in top 10 Beane would take him over Wentz and Dak IMHO as would I.  

Edited April 14, 2020 by Alphadawg7

[whatdrought]

51 minutes ago, Billl said:

Matt Barkley literally wouldn’t be a top 500 pick.  I’d rather have Aaron Donald at 20 and Mitch Trubisky at 42 than say Teddy Bridgewater and Travis Kelce.  The difference between the projected 15 and 30 at the QB spot is small enough that you can pretty much draw them out of a hat.

Matt Barkley is a top 64 QB in the NFL (give or take). That’s my point. The QB run would be crazy and every teams first pick would be the BPA at QB. That’s where the game is played.

[Virgil]

2 hours ago, Watkins101 said:

I would think to make this  a fairish draft, you would have to do something like 123...30,31,32,32,31,30...2,1,1,2...30,31,32,32,31...

 

 

Snake, the word is snake 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I disagree, respectfully.  Wentz  is very high risk player and living off of one partial season.  Dak, well I think I’m less a believer in Dak as most, and I think he’s peaked.  Personally, I think Allen is clearly gonna be one who splits opinions, but only one GM inside the top 10 needs to believe in him, and I think there are quite a few who see him as a rising star.  If Bills picked in top 10 Beane would take him over Wentz and Dak IMHO as would I.  

 

Dak v Allen would be a split. You would get some GMs who'd prefer the proven production of Dak and you'd get some who wanted the high ceiling of Allen. 

 

The guy not in there who I think would go top 10 is Darnold. He was the consensus #1 pick in that draft among NFL GMs. They loved him. I know John Dorsey went Mayfield but I believe at least 20 of the 32 and probably more would have taken Darnold 1st. I also suspect they would hold to that evaluation in such a redraft exercise. 

[Alphadawg7]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Dak v Allen would be a split. You would get some GMs who'd prefer the proven production of Dak and you'd get some who wanted the high ceiling of Allen. 

 

The guy not in there who I think would go top 10 is Darnold. He was the consensus #1 pick in that draft among NFL GMs. They loved him. I know John Dorsey went Mayfield but I believe at least 20 of the 32 and probably more would have taken Darnold 1st. I also suspect they would hold to that evaluation in such a redraft exercise. 

I agree and honestly I think if this really happened, the first 10 picks would probably all be (and should be) QBs and Darnold and Mayfield are the two QBs I would project to replace Bosa and AD to go in too 10.

 

And yeah, totally agree on how GMs would be split on Allen and Dak.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

I agree and honestly I think if this really happened, the first 10 picks would probably all be (and should be) QBs and Darnold and Mayfield are the two QBs I would project to replace Bosa and AD to go in too 10.

 

And yeah, totally agree on how GMs would be split on Allen and Dak.

 

I think that is probably right on all QBs in the top 10 but the OP was right to identify if defensive players did crash the party it would be Bosa and Donald. The next most likely defensive player in the 1st round is an interesting question. Tre White would have a shout, not even 26 until after the 2020 season and a proven top 3 corner....

[BuffaloHokie13]

Forget snake. It's an auction draft and the current salary cap is your spending limit.

[GoBills808]

15 hours ago, whatdrought said:

 

I can't agree with this. If the entire league was at zero, the top 20 QB's (however you want to rank them) would go 1-20 at least.

 

If you have the 10th pick and you're building a team from scratch, would you rather have Josh Allen and Joe Mixon rd 1 and 2, or Christian McCaffery and Matt Barkley? QB is such a premium that I think realistically the first 32 picks would be QB's.

Of course they would. 

[Sherlock Holmes]

18 hours ago, FireChans said:

Yeah, no way Josh goes before Dak or Wentz. Like no way. And AD would go before Bosa.

He shouldn't....but yesss let him slip to me

16 hours ago, whatdrought said:

 

I can't agree with this. If the entire league was at zero, the top 20 QB's (however you want to rank them) would go 1-20 at least.

 

If you have the 10th pick and you're building a team from scratch, would you rather have Josh Allen and Joe Mixon rd 1 and 2, or Christian McCaffery and Matt Barkley? QB is such a premium that I think realistically the first 32 picks would be QB's.

Christian McCaffrey AND Josh Allen

[Billl]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Dak v Allen would be a split. You would get some GMs who'd prefer the proven production of Dak and you'd get some who wanted the high ceiling of Allen. 

 

The guy not in there who I think would go top 10 is Darnold. He was the consensus #1 pick in that draft among NFL GMs. They loved him. I know John Dorsey went Mayfield but I believe at least 20 of the 32 and probably more would have taken Darnold 1st. I also suspect they would hold to that evaluation in such a redraft exercise. 

Every GM would take Dak.  It’s not even close.  How is Allen’s ceiling higher than Dak’s?  Prescott’s worst season is way better than Josh’s best season, and they aren’t that far apart enough in age.  Dak has also proven to be considerably more durable which would be a huge consideration in an exercise like this.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Billl said:

Every GM would take Dak.  It’s not even close.  How is Allen’s ceiling higher than Dak’s?  Prescott’s worst season is way better than Josh’s best season, and they aren’t that far apart enough in age.  Dak has also proven to be considerably more durable which would be a huge consideration in an exercise like this.

 

At this point Dak is better than Josh. No question. I am a big Dak fan think he is almost criminally underrated and undervalued and I think it is because he was a 4th round pick. But I think Allen's ceiling is sky high. Always did. My question with Josh was always "how likely is he to reach it?" He is ahead of where I expected him to be two years in and I think there is reasonable grounds to believe he can take another step. Now whether he can progress past Dak will remain to be seen but there are NFL GMs who love the high ceiling guys.