Josh Allen Vs Baker Mayfield AND SAM DARNOLD

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, wiley16350 said:

I had Allen with only 3.5 fumbles last year, fumbling 0.8% of his plays.  This year I had him fumbling 11.25 of 704 plays for 1.5%.  Pretty much twice as much.

 

 

 

Oh, yeah, those half-fumbles and quarter-fumbles will kill you every time. Totally makes sense.

[machine gun kelly]

6 hours ago, wiley16350 said:

I'll clarify the turnovers being unstable because I can see where I may have contradicted myself.  Fumbles are completely unstable because they are more about what is happening around the QB rather than what the QB is necessarily doing.  There are certain things that increase the likelihood of a fumble and not all defenses do those things.  Pressure from behind, getting hit while throwing, having the ball punched out from behind while the QB is running are near certain fumble opportunities no matter who the QB is.  That can change drastically from year to year because it depends on opponent and the players around the QB.  Fumbles are more about bad luck or tough circumstances than they are about skill.  Interceptions are unstable in the sense that QB's that face more pressure are more likely to throw them and some situations can influence a QB to take chances he shouldn't take.  That means the better the environment for the QB, the less likely he is to throw an interception, for most QB's.  For those reasons some QB's can swing some from year to year if they're on an unstable team.  With that said, a QB's personality and ability to read defenses can make him consistent in making bad decisions.  That is what you have to determine by watching the film.  Jameis Winston and Brett Farve were consistent in making bad decisions and forcing throws and it wasn't necessarily the team around them that was influencing that.  A QB like Drew Bledsoe was more about the team around him and the circumstances that he was playing in.  His int's would tend to come in bunches in games where his team was over matched.

Wiley, this isn’t the first IR even second Mayfield vs. Allen thread, but that’s ok as you tried to provide statistically a different perspective.  While I don’t agree with everything you wrote,   Fergy is right.  If you want people to read all the way through you’re points, paragraphs help.  We’re not in creative writing in  8th grade, but just basics to make it easier to read.  
 

Thank you for sharing.

[wiley16350]

6 hours ago, Billl said:

So instead of having 22 fumbles, he actually has 15.75?  Am I understanding this correctly?

For his career, I have him with 14.75 instead of the 22 that he is officially credited with

[Greg S]

If we are going to compare QB's I would be more interested in Allen vs Darnold. He is the guy the Bills will face twice a year every year. Both of them will play an important part in the Bills-Jets rivalry over the next 12-15 years if things go well. Let the Browns and Ravens fans compare Mayfield vs Jackson. Allen and Darnold could be another Kelly-Marino which would makes for some exciting matchups between the teams.

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

10 hours ago, FireChans said:

This was a really cool analysis by the numbers but you’ll need to be a little more objective in how you editorialize the QB’s. 

 

How can you claim turnovers vary widely from year to year, say it’s “reasonable” Josh improves his fumbles, and then say Baker had a consistent issue with turnovers, when he threw much less as a rookie?

 

In Baker’s first seven games, he had 7 TD’s to 12 INT’s. In his last 9, he had 18 TD’s to 9 INT’s. I guess only Josh gets credit for cleaning up the TO’s midway through the year.

First thing I noticed as well ... can’t have it both ways in order to flesh out what you want your narrative to read. 

[SoCal Deek]

Allen can’t be King! He doesn’t have sh&t all over him.

[stinky finger]

8 hours ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Your arm's off.

 

It's just a flesh wound

[whorlnut]

OP...good analysis. 
 

It continues to fascinate me that Mayfield (and Darnold) get the benefit of the doubt from nearly every reporter and analyst, but the same people still spew off that Allen is no good and his accuracy sucks. Blah, blah, blah.
 

Yet there is one of these three that actually improved last year and that’s Allen.  Mayfield actually regressed horribly despite having some elite weapons all around him. Darnold has shown flashes, but nothing yet of the can’t miss variety that pundits were expecting of him. 
 

Guys, we are lucky to have Allen. He’s not a finished product, but he keeps getting better and the team loves him. His drive is relentless and he now has pieces to have sustained success. I’d take him over any of the other two in this post. 

[Billl]

6 hours ago, wiley16350 said:

For his career, I have him with 14.75 instead of the 22 that he is officially credited with

That’s a pretty good deal.  Fumble rates are at an all time low, so it’s a great time to refinance them.

[Putin]

3 hours ago, whorlnut said:

OP...good analysis. 
 

It continues to fascinate me that Mayfield (and Darnold) get the benefit of the doubt from nearly every reporter and analyst, but the same people still spew off that Allen is no good and his accuracy sucks. Blah, blah, blah.
 

Yet there is one of these three that actually improved last year and that’s Allen.  Mayfield actually regressed horribly despite having some elite weapons all around him. Darnold has shown flashes, but nothing yet of the can’t miss variety that pundits were expecting of him. 
 

Guys, we are lucky to have Allen. He’s not a finished product, but he keeps getting better and the team loves him. His drive is relentless and he now has pieces to have sustained success. I’d take him over any of the other two in this post. 

+ 1 

[C.Biscuit97]

5 hours ago, whorlnut said:

OP...good analysis. 
 

It continues to fascinate me that Mayfield (and Darnold) get the benefit of the doubt from nearly every reporter and analyst, but the same people still spew off that Allen is no good and his accuracy sucks. Blah, blah, blah.
 

Yet there is one of these three that actually improved last year and that’s Allen.  Mayfield actually regressed horribly despite having some elite weapons all around him. Darnold has shown flashes, but nothing yet of the can’t miss variety that pundits were expecting of him. 
 

Guys, we are lucky to have Allen. He’s not a finished product, but he keeps getting better and the team loves him. His drive is relentless and he now has pieces to have sustained success. I’d take him over any of the other two in this post. 

1) Allen’s accuracy isn’t good and it’s never been good at any level of football.  Can he improve sure but people need to stop pretending it’s some government conspiracy to discredit Allen.  In today’s nfl, under 60% sucks.  
 

2) were you not on this planet since the football season started?  Mayfield got murdered all year for how much he and the Browns underachieved.  There’s no way you didn’t hear all the criticism.  And darnold has mono that completely sidetracked his season.  
 

No one of these guys have proven that they are franchise guys yet and have a ton to prove this year.  I think Allen has the best overall team around him; Baker has the most talented offense; and Darnold is definitely in the worst situation.  It’s hypothetically but I think it’s interesting to think what each guy would do in a different situation.  I think Darnold would be a stud here.  

[ColoradoBills]

.........another Spy vs Spy thread.

 

[eball]

14 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

1) Allen’s accuracy isn’t good and it’s never been good at any level of football.  Can he improve sure but people need to stop pretending it’s some government conspiracy to discredit Allen.  In today’s nfl, under 60% sucks.  
 

2) were you not on this planet since the football season started?  Mayfield got murdered all year for how much he and the Browns underachieved.  There’s no way you didn’t hear all the criticism.  And darnold has mono that completely sidetracked his season.  
 

No one of these guys have proven that they are franchise guys yet and have a ton to prove this year.  I think Allen has the best overall team around him; Baker has the most talented offense; and Darnold is definitely in the worst situation.  It’s hypothetically but I think it’s interesting to think what each guy would do in a different situation.  I think Darnold would be a stud here.  

 

[YAWN}

 

Only one of the three improved his play last season -- despite the fact that one of them was gifted a great QB guru and soothsayer as his HC and one of them was gifted his OC as his HC.

 

Only one of the three has been to the playoffs.

 

Allen got better last year.  Significantly.  His deep ball accuracy was horrible but he improved dramatically in the short and intermediate range game.  His accuracy and QB rating at that level was very good.  He was one of the best red zone QBs in the league.  And guess what he's working on this offseason?  His deep ball.  Given the way this kid dedicates himself to improving his weaknesses if you don't expect him to be better this year you're still just clinging to your pre-draft assessment.

[Bring it]

1 hour ago, eball said:

 

[YAWN}

 

Only one of the three improved his play last season -- despite the fact that one of them was gifted a great QB guru and soothsayer as his HC and one of them was gifted his OC as his HC.

 

Only one of the three has been to the playoffs.

 

Allen got better last year.  Significantly.  His deep ball accuracy was horrible but he improved dramatically in the short and intermediate range game.  His accuracy and QB rating at that level was very good.  He was one of the best red zone QBs in the league.  And guess what he's working on this offseason?  His deep ball.  Given the way this kid dedicates himself to improving his weaknesses if you don't expect him to be better this year you're still just clinging to your pre-draft assessment.

Agreed! The point about Brady made by the OP stands out. Brady was never a great deep baller but was great at the short and intermediate game! You can’t be a great Qb in this league and have it the other way around!!! Josh really improved  last season where he absolutely needed to!!! Is he great yet? No. Needs to improve accuracy but not as much as some believe. Every Qb has some bad throws in a given game! He also made some ridiculous completions that very few others can!

 To me he proved that he is worth being our franchise Qb going forward!! And I have no doubts at all that he will be great!!

[BarleyNY]

3 hours ago, eball said:

 

[YAWN}

 

Only one of the three improved his play last season -- despite the fact that one of them was gifted a great QB guru and soothsayer as his HC and one of them was gifted his OC as his HC.

 

Only one of the three has been to the playoffs.

 

Allen got better last year.  Significantly.  His deep ball accuracy was horrible but he improved dramatically in the short and intermediate range game.  His accuracy and QB rating at that level was very good.  He was one of the best red zone QBs in the league.  And guess what he's working on this offseason?  His deep ball.  Given the way this kid dedicates himself to improving his weaknesses if you don't expect him to be better this year you're still just clinging to your pre-draft assessment.

I don’t want to get in this argument too deeply, but it’s worth noting that players and their situations should be looked at the same way.  Allen gets a lot of leeway for coming into the league so raw, for not having a #1 WR last season and for the total crap show he was thrown into in his rookie season.  That’s all fair.  Daboll takes a lot of blame too.  IMO too much gets attributed to him though. 
 

It is equally fair to look at Mayfield’s situation.  Him having Landry and OBJ last season gets brought up a lot, but both played injured the whole season which doesn’t.  He had a terrible set of OTs and got put into a scheme that exposed them terribly.  It didn’t exactly fit  him either.  He also had a god awful HC calling plays.  If you see the replay of Bills v Browns or any other Browns game from last season check out the first dozen or so plays versus the rest.  The early plays are scripted and the OC installed them and they were practiced.  It’s a whole different team and QB there.  After that they’re a mess because Kitchens was calling the plays.  And we aren’t even talking about all of the upheaval and changes Mayfield saw in his rookie season.  All of that is fair to include in his evaluation too. 
 

Honestly it’s pretty pointless to compare Allen and Mayfield at this time.  Allen was so raw that we don’t know where he’s going to top out at.  It’s fair to see his development and be encouraged that it’ll continue.  Let’s watch and see how that works out.  As for Mayfield, it’s also fair to wait and see if he gets some stability around him before passing judgement. 

 

 

[eball]

@BarleyNY if you're going to say Josh "got a break" for entering the league so raw (which I disagree with, by the way -- he's been hammered constantly by those looking to confirm their bust predictions) then you should also acknowledge that Mayfield was considered a largely "finished product" entering the league.

 

Anyway, it's only natural that the five QBs taken in the first round of that draft will be compared throughout their careers.  Jackson got shot out of a cannon but I don't think there is consensus that he will wind up being the best of the bunch when all is said and done.

 

In five years it would not surprise me to see Allen and Darnold considered the best franchise QBs to come out of that draft.

[oldmanfan]

20 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

1) Allen’s accuracy isn’t good and it’s never been good at any level of football.  Can he improve sure but people need to stop pretending it’s some government conspiracy to discredit Allen.  In today’s nfl, under 60% sucks.  
 

2) were you not on this planet since the football season started?  Mayfield got murdered all year for how much he and the Browns underachieved.  There’s no way you didn’t hear all the criticism.  And darnold has mono that completely sidetracked his season.  
 

No one of these guys have proven that they are franchise guys yet and have a ton to prove this year.  I think Allen has the best overall team around him; Baker has the most talented offense; and Darnold is definitely in the worst situation.  It’s hypothetically but I think it’s interesting to think what each guy would do in a different situation.  I think Darnold would be a stud here.  

Accuracy does not equal completion percentage.  This has been explained over and over and over again.  The 60% magical barrier has also been debunked over and over and over again; Allen hits your mythical mark with one less drop every few games.  But you continue to hang onto this as if it means something.

 

Allen improved last year.  He has to continue that trend.  Simple.

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, eball said:

@BarleyNY if you're going to say Josh "got a break" for entering the league so raw (which I disagree with, by the way -- he's been hammered constantly by those looking to confirm their bust predictions) then you should also acknowledge that Mayfield was considered a largely "finished product" entering the league.

 

Anyway, it's only natural that the five QBs taken in the first round of that draft will be compared throughout their careers.  Jackson got shot out of a cannon but I don't think there is consensus that he will wind up being the best of the bunch when all is said and done.

 

In five years it would not surprise me to see Allen and Darnold considered the best franchise QBs to come out of that draft.

At this point I would be very surprised if Darnold and Allen become the two best of that class, but that can be for another thread. 
 

As for Mayfield being a finished product, you’re kidding, right?  While he was more of a finished product than Allen, he came from a spread offense that didn’t even put him under center. Two days into training camp his OC remarked that he’d lined up under Center more in those two days of practice than he did in three seasons in college.

 

And yeah, Allen does get a break for coming into the league as raw as he did.  He should.  I hated seeing him put on the field in his rookie year, especially with such a poor supporting cast around him.  Maybe it worked out as a learning experience, but I’d have rather seen him improving things like his arm mechanics and footwork first.  To his credit he has made big improvements on both, though neither is a finished product yet.  But he still looks undeveloped in making reads, accuracy and ball security.

 

Other QBs coming out of college still have to develop in some areas.  That’s pretty normal. But coming into the league Allen had more on his plate than other first round QBs in that regard.  That doesn’t mean that he can’t do it.  It does mean that it would be reasonable for it to take him a little longer though.  My fear with Allen is that his progression stops.  As long as I see him improving I’ll be happy.  I make a habit of looking at that kind of thing in blocks of 4 games during the season which keeps me from overreacting to any single game.  So I’ll see what he looks like through the quarter turn of this season and go from there.

[Meatloaf63]

On 4/12/2020 at 11:12 PM, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said:

Well I didn't vote for him

You don’t vote for a king...

On 4/13/2020 at 8:24 AM, SoCal Deek said:

Allen can’t be King! He doesn’t have sh&t all over him.

No, no no he must be king because he is the only one who doesn’t have sht all over him...

[wiley16350]

On 4/13/2020 at 7:52 AM, Greg S said:

If we are going to compare QB's I would be more interested in Allen vs Darnold. He is the guy the Bills will face twice a year every year. Both of them will play an important part in the Bills-Jets rivalry over the next 12-15 years if things go well. Let the Browns and Ravens fans compare Mayfield vs Jackson. Allen and Darnold could be another Kelly-Marino which would makes for some exciting matchups between the teams.

I added Darnold's numbers to the original post