Interesting Player Starting to Slide

[maryland-bills-fan]

2 hours ago, TigerJ said:

Funny, I look at the same stat and conclude there were 12 running backs who had better receiving stats than Singletary.  Still, I think its better than not to have a second RB on the roster who can do some of everything.  If you want a ground and pound short yardage specialist, I think he ought to be a third RB on the roster.  I'm not counting Taiwan Jones, who won't get more than about 5 snaps all season at RB.

 

Well, I don't know how you did that.  Try this.  

[1]      Pull up this on your search engine. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/rb/2019

scroll down to the 3rd section which is labled RECEIVING: Minimum 25 passes, 50 players ranked

[2]      There is a top row on the chart the 11th column heading is "yards"  (total yards receiving for 2019). Go there and click on it to make it the parameter that the total chart is going to be sorted by.   This sorting gives you the total yards that player got by catching passes in 2019.

[3]  Go down the list.  Go WAY down the list.  Near the bottom you find Singeltary.

 

I guess I'm just simple.  I don't care to get into pissing contest about somebody's pet 27 term parameter about figuring out who is what.  IF the guy is 45th in the total number of yards he got as receiving passes, that gives me a clue and I'll ignore BS and nuanced tap dancing.

 

RECEIVING: Minimum 25 passes, 50 players ranked

• Passes includes all passes to this receiver, complete and incomplete.
• Catch Rate is the percentage of passes completed to this receiver.

Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	YAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	VOA	Passes	Yards ▴	EYds	TD	Catch Rate	FUM
C.McCaffrey	CAR	386	1	351	2	34.8%	4	30.4%	142	1,005	1,365	4	82%	0
A.Ekeler	LAC	320	2	359	1	38.8%	3	45.1%	108	993	1,093	8	85%	2
J.White	NE	142	5	179	3	14.8%	14	22.4%	95	645	647	5	76%	0
A.Kamara	NO	83	13	44	22	1.6%	23	-5.7%	97	533	558	1	84%	1
L.Fournette	JAX	-17	42	-28	45	-17.0%	42	-19.1%	101	524	349	0	76%	1
D.Cook	MIN	144	4	138	5	29.2%	5	27.5%	63	519	535	0	84%	1
M.Sanders	PHI	121	7	134	6	20.0%	12	23.7%	63	509	504	3	79%	0
A.Jones	GB	35	24	54	20	-5.1%	29	-0.5%	68	474	359	3	72%	1
L.Bell	NYJ	3	39	32	25	-13.2%	39	-6.5%	78	461	315	1	85%	1
T.Cohen	CHI	-36	45	-51	46	-20.1%	43	-22.7%	104	456	337	3	76%	1
S.Barkley	NYG	-37	46	-25	44	-22.8%	45	-19.9%	73	438	218	2	71%	1
E.Elliott	DAL	99	10	87	12	12.6%	16	9.3%	71	420	474	2	76%	0
D.Freeman	ATL	51	19	55	18	-0.9%	25	0.1%	70	410	388	4	84%	1
Du.Johnson	HOU	125	6	114	7	24.6%	9	21.5%	62	410	481	3	71%	0
C.Thompson	WAS	34	25	20	31	-2.1%	26	-7.0%	58	378	280	0	72%	1
Da.Johnson	ARI	114	8	111	8	29.2%	6	28.0%	47	370	426	4	77%	1
K.Drake	2TM	23	29	-25	43	-7.9%	33	-20.1%	68	345	331	0	74%	0
J.Richard	OAK	39	21	54	19	2.7%	22	8.6%	43	323	252	0	84%	1
N.Hines	IND	-24	43	-1	38	-21.5%	44	-14.2%	58	320	174	0	76%	1
R.Jones	TB	47	20	58	17	9.2%	17	14.5%	40	309	242	0	78%	1
J.Samuels	PIT	17	33	23	30	-8.9%	35	-7.2%	57	305	288	1	82%	1
M.Gordon	LAC	19	31	15	34	-7.3%	32	-8.8%	55	296	246	1	76%	1
D.Washington	OAK	74	15	76	15	21.1%	11	22.3%	41	292	303	0	88%	0
J.Mixon	CIN	86	12	80	13	19.3%	13	17.2%	45	287	363	3	78%	0
D.Ogunbowale	TB	31	26	16	32	-2.9%	27	-8.3%	46	286	267	0	76%	1
K.Hunt	CLE	71	16	80	14	14.2%	15	18.1%	44	285	325	1	84%	0
R.Burkhead	NE	37	23	27	28	4.0%	21	-0.8%	38	279	227	0	71%	1
N.Chubb	CLE	-4	41	10	35	-15.3%	41	-10.0%	49	278	174	0	73%	1
C.Carson	SEA	57	18	39	23	8.9%	18	1.6%	47	266	295	2	79%	1
R.Freeman	DEN	10	36	15	33	-10.1%	36	-8.3%	50	256	208	1	86%	0
J.Williams	GB	103	9	103	10	27.4%	8	27.5%	45	253	391	5	87%	0
J.Conner	PIT	75	14	93	11	21.2%	10	29.8%	38	251	308	3	89%	0
M.Ingram	BAL	145	3	153	4	74.6%	1	79.1%	29	247	418	5	90%	0
K.Juszczyk	SF	98	11	108	9	47.6%	2	53.5%	24	239	317	1	83%	0
L.Murray	NO	19	32	24	29	-5.6%	31	-3.4%	43	235	202	1	79%	0
G.Bernard	CIN	-55	49	-58	49	-38.5%	48	-40.0%	43	234	46	0	70%	2
J.D.McKissic	DET	12	35	-2	39	-8.2%	34	-14.6%	42	233	176	1	81%	0
Dam.Williams	KC	24	28	34	24	-3.7%	28	0.7%	37	213	216	2	81%	0
T.Gurley	LAR	0	40	-20	42	-13.8%	40	-21.0%	49	207	197	2	63%	0
P.Laird	MIA	39	22	51	21	8.6%	19	15.4%	30	204	205	0	77%	0
B.Scott	PHI	67	17	62	16	29.0%	7	25.9%	26	204	250	0	92%	1
P.Lindsay	DEN	-69	50	-57	48	-39.7%	49	-35.0%	48	196	48	0	73%	0
D.Singletary	BUF	-47	48	-53	47	-35.2%	47	-37.7%	41	194	61	2	71%	0
D.Montgomery	CHI	15	34	8	36	-5.5%	30	-9.3%	35	185	164	1	71%	0
L.McCoy	KC	-34	44	-15	41	-32.2%	46	-22.0%	35	181	63	1	82%	1
T.Coleman	SF	23	30	28	27	0.0%	24	2.7%	30	180	168	1	70%	0
J.Jacobs	OAK	28	27	31	26	4.6%	20	6.6%	27	166	166	0	74%	0
D.Lewis	TEN	3	38	-8	40	-11.9%	38	-19.0%	32	164	115	1	78%	0
C.J.Ham	MIN	6	37	2	37	-10.1%	37	-12.5%	26	149	134	1	65%	0
T.Johnson	DET	-45	47	-60	50	-40.2%	50	-48.8%	31	109	29	0	77%	1

 

 

 

 

 

 

3 hours ago, Hardhatharry said:

He will be better this year, last year he was a rookie. Don't worry.

I would worry.  Rookies often get away with things.  The next year their weaknesses are on film to see. My opinion is that Singletary is about at his ceiling and the league will catch up with him.

Edited April 12, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan

[Hardhatharry]

10 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 

Well, I don't know how you did that.  Try this.  

[1]      Pull up this on your search engine. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/rb/2019

scroll down to the 3rd section which is labled RECEIVING: Minimum 25 passes, 50 players ranked

[2]      There is a top row on the chart the 11th column heading is "yards"  (total yards receiving for 2019). Go there and click on it to make it the parameter that the total chart is going to be sorted by.   This sorting gives you the total yards that player got by catching passes in 2019.

[3]  Go down the list.  Go WAY down the list.  Near the bottom you find Singeltary.

 

I guess I'm just simple.  I don't care to get into pissing contest about somebody's pet 27 term parameter about figuring out who is what.  IF the guy is 45th in the total number of yards he got as receiving passes, that gives me a clue and I'll ignore BS and nuanced tap dancing.

 

RECEIVING: Minimum 25 passes, 50 players ranked

• Passes includes all passes to this receiver, complete and incomplete.
• Catch Rate is the percentage of passes completed to this receiver.

Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	YAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	VOA	Passes	Yards ▴	EYds	TD	Catch Rate	FUM
C.McCaffrey	CAR	386	1	351	2	34.8%	4	30.4%	142	1,005	1,365	4	82%	0
A.Ekeler	LAC	320	2	359	1	38.8%	3	45.1%	108	993	1,093	8	85%	2
J.White	NE	142	5	179	3	14.8%	14	22.4%	95	645	647	5	76%	0
A.Kamara	NO	83	13	44	22	1.6%	23	-5.7%	97	533	558	1	84%	1
L.Fournette	JAX	-17	42	-28	45	-17.0%	42	-19.1%	101	524	349	0	76%	1
D.Cook	MIN	144	4	138	5	29.2%	5	27.5%	63	519	535	0	84%	1
M.Sanders	PHI	121	7	134	6	20.0%	12	23.7%	63	509	504	3	79%	0
A.Jones	GB	35	24	54	20	-5.1%	29	-0.5%	68	474	359	3	72%	1
L.Bell	NYJ	3	39	32	25	-13.2%	39	-6.5%	78	461	315	1	85%	1
T.Cohen	CHI	-36	45	-51	46	-20.1%	43	-22.7%	104	456	337	3	76%	1
S.Barkley	NYG	-37	46	-25	44	-22.8%	45	-19.9%	73	438	218	2	71%	1
E.Elliott	DAL	99	10	87	12	12.6%	16	9.3%	71	420	474	2	76%	0
D.Freeman	ATL	51	19	55	18	-0.9%	25	0.1%	70	410	388	4	84%	1
Du.Johnson	HOU	125	6	114	7	24.6%	9	21.5%	62	410	481	3	71%	0
C.Thompson	WAS	34	25	20	31	-2.1%	26	-7.0%	58	378	280	0	72%	1
Da.Johnson	ARI	114	8	111	8	29.2%	6	28.0%	47	370	426	4	77%	1
K.Drake	2TM	23	29	-25	43	-7.9%	33	-20.1%	68	345	331	0	74%	0
J.Richard	OAK	39	21	54	19	2.7%	22	8.6%	43	323	252	0	84%	1
N.Hines	IND	-24	43	-1	38	-21.5%	44	-14.2%	58	320	174	0	76%	1
R.Jones	TB	47	20	58	17	9.2%	17	14.5%	40	309	242	0	78%	1
J.Samuels	PIT	17	33	23	30	-8.9%	35	-7.2%	57	305	288	1	82%	1
M.Gordon	LAC	19	31	15	34	-7.3%	32	-8.8%	55	296	246	1	76%	1
D.Washington	OAK	74	15	76	15	21.1%	11	22.3%	41	292	303	0	88%	0
J.Mixon	CIN	86	12	80	13	19.3%	13	17.2%	45	287	363	3	78%	0
D.Ogunbowale	TB	31	26	16	32	-2.9%	27	-8.3%	46	286	267	0	76%	1
K.Hunt	CLE	71	16	80	14	14.2%	15	18.1%	44	285	325	1	84%	0
R.Burkhead	NE	37	23	27	28	4.0%	21	-0.8%	38	279	227	0	71%	1
N.Chubb	CLE	-4	41	10	35	-15.3%	41	-10.0%	49	278	174	0	73%	1
C.Carson	SEA	57	18	39	23	8.9%	18	1.6%	47	266	295	2	79%	1
R.Freeman	DEN	10	36	15	33	-10.1%	36	-8.3%	50	256	208	1	86%	0
J.Williams	GB	103	9	103	10	27.4%	8	27.5%	45	253	391	5	87%	0
J.Conner	PIT	75	14	93	11	21.2%	10	29.8%	38	251	308	3	89%	0
M.Ingram	BAL	145	3	153	4	74.6%	1	79.1%	29	247	418	5	90%	0
K.Juszczyk	SF	98	11	108	9	47.6%	2	53.5%	24	239	317	1	83%	0
L.Murray	NO	19	32	24	29	-5.6%	31	-3.4%	43	235	202	1	79%	0
G.Bernard	CIN	-55	49	-58	49	-38.5%	48	-40.0%	43	234	46	0	70%	2
J.D.McKissic	DET	12	35	-2	39	-8.2%	34	-14.6%	42	233	176	1	81%	0
Dam.Williams	KC	24	28	34	24	-3.7%	28	0.7%	37	213	216	2	81%	0
T.Gurley	LAR	0	40	-20	42	-13.8%	40	-21.0%	49	207	197	2	63%	0
P.Laird	MIA	39	22	51	21	8.6%	19	15.4%	30	204	205	0	77%	0
B.Scott	PHI	67	17	62	16	29.0%	7	25.9%	26	204	250	0	92%	1
P.Lindsay	DEN	-69	50	-57	48	-39.7%	49	-35.0%	48	196	48	0	73%	0
D.Singletary	BUF	-47	48	-53	47	-35.2%	47	-37.7%	41	194	61	2	71%	0
D.Montgomery	CHI	15	34	8	36	-5.5%	30	-9.3%	35	185	164	1	71%	0
L.McCoy	KC	-34	44	-15	41	-32.2%	46	-22.0%	35	181	63	1	82%	1
T.Coleman	SF	23	30	28	27	0.0%	24	2.7%	30	180	168	1	70%	0
J.Jacobs	OAK	28	27	31	26	4.6%	20	6.6%	27	166	166	0	74%	0
D.Lewis	TEN	3	38	-8	40	-11.9%	38	-19.0%	32	164	115	1	78%	0
C.J.Ham	MIN	6	37	2	37	-10.1%	37	-12.5%	26	149	134	1	65%	0
T.Johnson	DET	-45	47	-60	50	-40.2%	50	-48.8%	31	109	29	0	77%	1

 

 

 

 

 

 

I would worry.  Rookies often get away with things.  The next year their weaknesses are on film to see. My opinion is that Singletary is about at his ceiling and the league will catch up with him.

Nah not for him.

[RocCityRoller]

19 hours ago, GreggTX said:

If there is any 1 position I'd like to see addressed, it's RT. I know we just signed Darryl Williams, but he was terrible at LG last year. He reminds me of Cordy Glenn. He was great until a lower body injury limited his mobility, hence his release. Too bad we couldn't test that knee before signing him. I still think Ford would be much better at G.

 

I'm not sold on Ford, but does he improve on Spain or Feliciano as a G? Doubtful. He is another big slow footed guy who can't pull.

 

At least Feliciano plays with some meanness, and Spain is an NFL level G.

[RocCityRoller]

16 hours ago, N.Y. Orangeman said:

Two day two picks on rbs over two years makes no sense.

 

It does when your cupboard is bare after the first one.

 

What positions can immediately come in an contribute?

 

RB#2 - obvious need, high chance of contributing immediately

RT - D Williams/ Ford/ Nseke. When you have 3 starters you have none. If a stud is there grab him and trim some roster fat.

Edge - I'm not sold on the DL replacements (unpopular opinion I know), need youth at edge. With DL rotations McD likes could contribute right away.

CB - I don't think OBD is sold on Wallace as the #2 perimeter CB. See Gaines/ Norman/ Johnson brought in as tire patches

TE - is there anyone in this draft who can knock Knox other TE's out of starting role?

LB - Edmunds/ Milano/ Klein good corps. Is a stud LB available at 54?

 

I think it's truly BPA at this point with RB the sole glaring hole. With this draft I see a top quality RB falling to 54. Nothing wrong with having two cheap, young, capable RBs in the backfield to help your young QB out.

Edited April 13, 2020 by RocCityRoller

[Thurman#1]

13 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Why not 2nd? The Bills are going to draft BPA (as they should). It’s entirely possible that BPA in round 2 is one of those 4 or 5 RBs (Swift, Dobbins, Taylor, Edwards-Helaire, Akers). It doesn’t have to be a RB there but it could be a situation of “BPA meets last remaining need.”

 

The other thing is that RB is the one position that they didn’t address in FA. That tells me that they want another young guy. Everywhere else they tried to add bodies to insulate against having to pick a guy. RB is the only position on the entire roster that they have to pick a guy at. This could obviously change between now and the draft if they add someone like Hyde, Miller or Freeman. As of today though, that’s not the case.

 

 

Not addressing RB in FA could be telling us that they want another young guy. Or it could be telling us that Beane wants the FA contracts to fall a bit more before he scoops one up.

 

Again, he brought in Yeldon 3 or 4 days before the draft last year. He could do the same thing again this year. Keep 'em in the pressure cooker a bit longer 'cause they're not done yet. You noted the possibility but worth pointing out that this is in Beane's history.

 

My guess is they do both, drafting someone in round 3 or after.

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Gee.  Singletary was #45 in RB receiving last year.  So, 32 teams had a better pass reciever than the Bills.  22 teams had TWO running backs that were better pass receiver than Singletary.    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/rb/2019

 

#47       Singletary             Buffalo  41 passes for 194 yards    

#32      L,Murray                Saints     43 passes for 235 yards

#16     K.Hunt                    Browns    44  passes for 285 yards

#8    Da. Johnson             Arizona   47 passes for 370 yards

 

I would like the Bills to be at lease in the top half to top quarter of the league.  If you think we should pass the ball more, putting an additional receiving threat on the field for every play seems like a good idea.  We are giving about 150 yards away AND adding a threat at RB pass catching will mean few double coverages on the top 2 wide receivers, and make them more effective.

 

 

 

And again ... assuming that because somebody was #45 in receiving as a rookie that he's the 45th best receiver in the league or that 32 teams have a better receiving back is stunningly bad logic. The evidence doesn't even begin to show that.

 

It's like arguing because a guy didn't drink much alcohol this week he's not an alcoholic. A million other factors in play, including time on the field, play calling, how good at and how often the QB checks down and on and on. That simply does not make sense in any way shape or form. Singletary could easily become a much more frequent target next year. Or not.  We don't know.

 

It certainly does make sense that they would work on his receiving with him. Guys going into their second year often improve. Not a sure thing he'll improve but it could easily happen.

 

I still remember that play against Houston where Singletary was ten yards open and Allen threw long to the fullback, never looking towards Singletary to see he was wide open for a nice gain that would have put him in the open field.

 

 

 

 

[stinky finger]

14 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I wouldn't hate any of those backs. I still think if one of the edge guys gets there that is the way they should go but I can easily see a situation where one of those backs is BPA at #54.

 

I'd say there stands to be a better chance of a RB being BPA vs edge player. I'd love the edge guy my self, just not confident that guy will be there at 54.

[maryland-bills-fan]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

And again ... assuming that because somebody was #45 in receiving as a rookie that he's the 45th best receiver in the league or that 32 teams have a better receiving back is stunningly bad logic. The evidence doesn't even begin to show that.

 

It's like arguing because a guy didn't drink much alcohol this week he's not an alcoholic. A million other factors in play, including time on the field, play calling, how good at and how often the QB checks down and on and on. That simply does not make sense in any way shape or form. Singletary could easily become a much more frequent target next year. Or not.  We don't know.

 

It certainly does make sense that they would work on his receiving with him. Guys going into their second year often improve. Not a sure thing he'll improve but it could easily happen.

 

I still remember that play against Houston where Singletary was ten yards open and Allen threw long to the fullback, never looking towards Singletary to see he was wide open for a nice gain that would have put him in the open field.

 

 

 

 

 

"The evidence doesn't even begin to show that".    Well, the yards receiving are usually considered pretty reliable and I don't think there is much need to challenge them.  I'm reminded of a quote from an English politician in the 1800's.  "My opponent has taken the argument to a plane where facts are not allowed to interfer with the free flow of ideas"

 

 

"  It's like arguing because a guy didn't drink much alcohol this week he's not an alcoholic...."   geesh!!   lets measure how much booze he drank over an entire season, why not

 

 

"We don't know"...   Well he had a whole season to make his case.   I am smart enough to know that if I hit myself with a hammer in the head and it hurts... I don't have to do that more than 16 times to know it is not a good idea. 

 

Maybe you don't know, but don't include me in the "We don't know"

 

If it "easily happens" that a guy often improves in the second year, why isnt everybody a starter after the second year?  Does anybody think that this is the year for a lot of improvement during mini-camps and training camps?

Edited April 13, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 

"The evidence doesn't even begin to show that".    Well, the yards receiving are usually considered pretty reliable and I don't think there is much need to challenge them.  I'm reminded of a quote from an English politician in the 1800's.  "My opponent has taken the argument to a plane where facts are not allowed to interfer with the free flow of ideas"

 

 

"  It's like arguing because a guy didn't drink much alcohol this week he's not an alcoholic...."   geesh!!   lets measure how much booze he drank over an entire season, why not

 

 

"We don't know"...   Well he had a whole season to make his case.   I am smart enough to know that if I hit myself with a hammer in the head and it hurts... I don't have to do that more than 16 times to know it is not a good idea. 

 

Maybe you don't know, but don't include me in the "We don't know"

 

If it "easily happens" that a guy often improves in the second year, why isnt everybody a starter after the second year?  Does anybody think that this is the year for a lot of improvement during mini-camps and training camps?

 

 

"Yards receiving are usually considered pretty reliable," you say. Yeah, reliable, but totally unreliable in terms of showing what you say it shows. Reliable to show how many yards the guy had receiving during that specific period? Yeah. Reliable for deciding who is better than who? Ridiculous.

 

Receiving yards for one year are reliable to show how good or bad a receiver is? No, obviously not. If you believe that, you have to believe that Jordan Howard is awful at catching passes since he only had 69 yards this year, and the 298 he had as a rookie don't count for you. Darren Sproles must suck as a pass receiver for you because he only had 24 yards this year, and looking at only one year under one system in one set of conditions is apparently enough to show how good someone is. It's a pathetic argument.

 

If you try to use this year's yards to decide who's good, you'd have to say that 2019 proved that Tevin Coleman is a worse receiver than Singletary. Yeah, that would be a ridiculous contention, but if you go with your logic, 2019 proved that even though when given the chance, Coleman has showed himself to be an excellent receiver when called upon, having years of 421 and 299 yards. But this year, Coleman had fewer than Singletary, so by your faulty logic we know Singletary is better. More, we can apparently show that TJ Yeldon is only 2/3rds of the receiver that Singletary is. according to the Maryland Method. Sure, Yeldon had 487 yards in 2018 when they threw to him, but by your logic, that doesn't matter, as apparently considering only the 2019 stats is enough to show how good someone is. By your argument you'd have to say that last seasons proves Singletary is a better pass receiver than Breida, for another. You'd have to be willing to kid yourself that last season proves that Singletary is twice the receiver that Ty Montgomery is ... it's all there in black and white as last year Montgomery only had 90 yards while Singletary had 194. It's a poor argument.

 

And your argument about saying that the guy isn't an alcoholic because he lasted the whole season is precisely on point ... in showing how completely you've missed the point. Either way, an argument that simply doesn't work. Say a guy doesn't drink much for a whole season, as you suggest. Again, doesn't even begin to show whether he's an alcoholic or not. Was he in jail for that season? Was he a dry alcoholic, who's got his two-year badge but will be an alcoholic for life? Was he on naltrexone? Did he hire a guy to stop him drinking by keeping him away from temptation? When you have a small sample size you can't prove squat. Just as it is with football players, if you want to have even a slightly complete idea, you have to look at him over time and in different situations.

 

If you don't want to be included in the "We don't know," category, fair enough. But in that case, the category you're putting yourself in is the "Doesn't know, but thinks he does" group. Which is the saddest of all groups.

 

And man is your last paragraph a sad stab at logic. I highlighted it in red above, for everyone, where you were forced to completely misquote me to attempt to make a point. First, I said, "Singletary could easily become a much more frequent target next year. Or not.  We don't know." You, in apparent desperation, reply to that by saying, "If it "easily happens" that a guy often improves in the second year, why isn't everybody a starter after the second year." You used quotation marks, for something I never said. You used quotation marks when you actually completely twist what I said. When you have to pretend someone said something they didn't, man, your inability to make your argument shows like a lighthouse beacon on a starless moonless night.

 

To answer your question, I said "he could easily become a much more frequent target." Your question, "why isn't everybody a starter after the second year?" isn't relevant to what I said. But here's what is relevant, plenty of guys make their biggest improvements between their rookie and second seasons. And as I also said, some don't. But there's certainly a very decent chance he does.

 

It's an extremely poor argument you're making. Maybe they'll work with him more this year on receiving. Maybe they'll call more passes to the RBs than they did last year. Maybe Allen will check down more on plays when it makes sense, the way he should have on that long bomb to Patrick DiMarco when Singletary was literally ten yards open. Or maybe Allen won't, or they won't run more pass plays targeting RBs. We don't know. What we do know, though, is there will be a ton of factors coming into play determining how many passes an RB in this offense catches .... same as there was last year and every year.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 13, 2020 by Thurman#1

[N.Y. Orangeman]

16 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Gee.  Singletary was #45 in RB receiving last year.  So, 32 teams had a better pass reciever than the Bills.  22 teams had TWO running backs that were better pass receiver than Singletary.    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/rb/2019

 

#47       Singletary             Buffalo  41 passes for 194 yards    

#32      L,Murray                Saints     43 passes for 235 yards

#16     K.Hunt                    Browns    44  passes for 285 yards

#8    Da. Johnson             Arizona   47 passes for 370 yards

 

I would like the Bills to be at lease in the top half to top quarter of the league.  If you think we should pass the ball more, putting an additional receiving threat on the field for every play seems like a good idea.  We are giving about 150 yards away AND adding a threat at RB pass catching will mean few double coverages on the top 2 wide receivers, and make them more effective.

What a ridiculous bastardization of statistics to bolster a ridiculous argument.

[mjt328]

It's hard to place value on a "gadget" player... which is exactly what Laviska Shenault projects to be.

 

It always sounds great on paper to have that kind of versatility, and a guy who can play multiple positions.  But most of the time, NFL offensive coordinators struggle to find ways to actually use them in games.  I've been watching this sport for 30-plus years, and these types usually end up with around 5 touches per week.  

 

When you really need yardage, are you going to take RB carries away from Devin Singletary and give them to Shenault?  Probably not.  On a big 3rd Down, are you going to take Stephon Diggs, John Brown or Cole Beasley off the field, when Shenault is nowhere near that level of WR?  Probably not.  Which means Shenault's true contribution on offense becomes mostly trick plays.  And before long, defenses start expecting trick plays whenever Shenault comes onto the field, which lowers his effectiveness even farther.  

 

If you have an extremely creative OC, the ceiling for a guy like this is probably Percy Harvin.  Who in his best season was about 950 yards receiving/350 yards rushing.  In most cases though, you are more likely to get Cordarrelle Patterson.

 

 

[maryland-bills-fan]

2 hours ago, N.Y. Orangeman said:

What a ridiculous bastardization of statistics to bolster a ridiculous argument.

Yea,  why look at what he did.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, N.Y. Orangeman said:

What a ridiculous bastardization of statistics to bolster a ridiculous argument.

 

 

Man, that's word for word what I should have said. Can't believe I spent so much time on it.

 

Food for thought. Thanks.

[Thurman#1]

41 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

It's hard to place value on a "gadget" player... which is exactly what Laviska Shenault projects to be.

 

It always sounds great on paper to have that kind of versatility, and a guy who can play multiple positions.  But most of the time, NFL offensive coordinators struggle to find ways to actually use them in games.  I've been watching this sport for 30-plus years, and these types usually end up with around 5 touches per week.  

 

When you really need yardage, are you going to take RB carries away from Devin Singletary and give them to Shenault?  Probably not.  On a big 3rd Down, are you going to take Stephon Diggs, John Brown or Cole Beasley off the field, when Shenault is nowhere near that level of WR?  Probably not.  Which means Shenault's true contribution on offense becomes mostly trick plays.  And before long, defenses start expecting trick plays whenever Shenault comes onto the field, which lowers his effectiveness even farther.  

 

If you have an extremely creative OC, the ceiling for a guy like this is probably Percy Harvin.  Who in his best season was about 950 yards receiving/350 yards rushing.  In most cases though, you are more likely to get Cordarrelle Patterson.

 

 

 

 

I think that's fair ... if the guy turns out to be a gadget player. I believe there's a fair argument that Shenault can become a good receiver who can also be used as a gadget player. I'm not 100% convinced, but I think it's possible. He still needs work on route running, and yet he often gets separation. That's a guy who might become a receiver down the road, IMO. Isn't McCaffrey at his heart a gadget player, though? Not that Shenault is McCaffrey. But isn't McCaffrey an example of a really successful gadget guy?

 

In any case, you don't draft people for how well they will do their first year, particularly not in this situation with such a strong roster. You draft a guy for to enrich the roster, to maximize the talent pool over the time he's here.

 

Few if any of the guys we draft this year will be likely to start or do much more than platoon, play STs or be depth, injury replacements or play in spots. That's not a problem when it's caused by a good roster. A big problem when it's caused by bad drafting, but so far Beane's drafting has been good.

 

You could be right, though, that he turns out to just be a gadget guy. And maybe that as a gadget guy he might not have much impact. If so, a team that picks him early will be disappointed.

[mjt328]

29 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

I think that's fair ... if the guy turns out to be a gadget player. I believe there's a fair argument that Shenault can become a good receiver who can also be used as a gadget player. I'm not 100% convinced, but I think it's possible. He still needs work on route running, and yet he often gets separation. That's a guy who might become a receiver down the road, IMO. Isn't McCaffrey at his heart a gadget player, though? Not that Shenault is McCaffrey. But isn't McCaffrey an example of a really successful gadget guy?

 

In any case, you don't draft people for how well they will do their first year, particularly not in this situation with such a strong roster. You draft a guy for to enrich the roster, to maximize the talent pool over the time he's here.

 

Few if any of the guys we draft this year will be likely to start or do much more than platoon, play STs or be depth, injury replacements or play in spots. That's not a problem when it's caused by a good roster. A big problem when it's caused by bad drafting, but so far Beane's drafting has been good.

 

You could be right, though, that he turns out to just be a gadget guy. And maybe that as a gadget guy he might not have much impact. If so, a team that picks him early will be disappointed.

 

Agreed.  If Laviska Shenault becomes a really good WR, then all the other stuff is just a bonus.

 

My thing is that if you ONLY look at his receiving skills, there are probably a dozen (or more) guys in this class who have greater potential at the WR position.  Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Henry Ruggs, Tee Higgins, Jalen Reagor, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, K.J. Hamler, Michael Pittman, Denzel Mims, Bryan Edwards, Chase Claypool, etc.  And then if you look at Shenault ONLY as a running back, he's probably not even in the Top 20.

 

Looking at the Bills roster, I don't see Shenault displacing our Top 3 receivers anytime soon.  And if you are looking for contributions in the running game from a 2nd Round Pick, we would certainly get more production our of a pure RB like Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Zack Moss, etc.  Which ultimately means Shenault's most effective role would be displacing Isaiah McKenzie and Andre Roberts on the depth chart.  Not exactly something I'm looking for before the 4th Round.

 

[TigerJ]

15 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 

Well, I don't know how you did that.  Try this.  

[1]      Pull up this on your search engine. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/rb/2019

scroll down to the 3rd section which is labled RECEIVING: Minimum 25 passes, 50 players ranked

[2]      There is a top row on the chart the 11th column heading is "yards"  (total yards receiving for 2019). Go there and click on it to make it the parameter that the total chart is going to be sorted by.   This sorting gives you the total yards that player got by catching passes in 2019.

[3]  Go down the list.  Go WAY down the list.  Near the bottom you find Singeltary.

 

I guess I'm just simple.  I don't care to get into pissing contest about somebody's pet 27 term parameter about figuring out who is what.  IF the guy is 45th in the total number of yards he got as receiving passes, that gives me a clue and I'll ignore BS and nuanced tap dancing.

 

RECEIVING: Minimum 25 passes, 50 players ranked

• Passes includes all passes to this receiver, complete and incomplete.
• Catch Rate is the percentage of passes completed to this receiver.

Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	YAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	VOA	Passes	Yards ▴	EYds	TD	Catch Rate	FUM
C.McCaffrey	CAR	386	1	351	2	34.8%	4	30.4%	142	1,005	1,365	4	82%	0
A.Ekeler	LAC	320	2	359	1	38.8%	3	45.1%	108	993	1,093	8	85%	2
J.White	NE	142	5	179	3	14.8%	14	22.4%	95	645	647	5	76%	0
A.Kamara	NO	83	13	44	22	1.6%	23	-5.7%	97	533	558	1	84%	1
L.Fournette	JAX	-17	42	-28	45	-17.0%	42	-19.1%	101	524	349	0	76%	1
D.Cook	MIN	144	4	138	5	29.2%	5	27.5%	63	519	535	0	84%	1
M.Sanders	PHI	121	7	134	6	20.0%	12	23.7%	63	509	504	3	79%	0
A.Jones	GB	35	24	54	20	-5.1%	29	-0.5%	68	474	359	3	72%	1
L.Bell	NYJ	3	39	32	25	-13.2%	39	-6.5%	78	461	315	1	85%	1
T.Cohen	CHI	-36	45	-51	46	-20.1%	43	-22.7%	104	456	337	3	76%	1
S.Barkley	NYG	-37	46	-25	44	-22.8%	45	-19.9%	73	438	218	2	71%	1
E.Elliott	DAL	99	10	87	12	12.6%	16	9.3%	71	420	474	2	76%	0
D.Freeman	ATL	51	19	55	18	-0.9%	25	0.1%	70	410	388	4	84%	1
Du.Johnson	HOU	125	6	114	7	24.6%	9	21.5%	62	410	481	3	71%	0
C.Thompson	WAS	34	25	20	31	-2.1%	26	-7.0%	58	378	280	0	72%	1
Da.Johnson	ARI	114	8	111	8	29.2%	6	28.0%	47	370	426	4	77%	1
K.Drake	2TM	23	29	-25	43	-7.9%	33	-20.1%	68	345	331	0	74%	0
J.Richard	OAK	39	21	54	19	2.7%	22	8.6%	43	323	252	0	84%	1
N.Hines	IND	-24	43	-1	38	-21.5%	44	-14.2%	58	320	174	0	76%	1
R.Jones	TB	47	20	58	17	9.2%	17	14.5%	40	309	242	0	78%	1
J.Samuels	PIT	17	33	23	30	-8.9%	35	-7.2%	57	305	288	1	82%	1
M.Gordon	LAC	19	31	15	34	-7.3%	32	-8.8%	55	296	246	1	76%	1
D.Washington	OAK	74	15	76	15	21.1%	11	22.3%	41	292	303	0	88%	0
J.Mixon	CIN	86	12	80	13	19.3%	13	17.2%	45	287	363	3	78%	0
D.Ogunbowale	TB	31	26	16	32	-2.9%	27	-8.3%	46	286	267	0	76%	1
K.Hunt	CLE	71	16	80	14	14.2%	15	18.1%	44	285	325	1	84%	0
R.Burkhead	NE	37	23	27	28	4.0%	21	-0.8%	38	279	227	0	71%	1
N.Chubb	CLE	-4	41	10	35	-15.3%	41	-10.0%	49	278	174	0	73%	1
C.Carson	SEA	57	18	39	23	8.9%	18	1.6%	47	266	295	2	79%	1
R.Freeman	DEN	10	36	15	33	-10.1%	36	-8.3%	50	256	208	1	86%	0
J.Williams	GB	103	9	103	10	27.4%	8	27.5%	45	253	391	5	87%	0
J.Conner	PIT	75	14	93	11	21.2%	10	29.8%	38	251	308	3	89%	0
M.Ingram	BAL	145	3	153	4	74.6%	1	79.1%	29	247	418	5	90%	0
K.Juszczyk	SF	98	11	108	9	47.6%	2	53.5%	24	239	317	1	83%	0
L.Murray	NO	19	32	24	29	-5.6%	31	-3.4%	43	235	202	1	79%	0
G.Bernard	CIN	-55	49	-58	49	-38.5%	48	-40.0%	43	234	46	0	70%	2
J.D.McKissic	DET	12	35	-2	39	-8.2%	34	-14.6%	42	233	176	1	81%	0
Dam.Williams	KC	24	28	34	24	-3.7%	28	0.7%	37	213	216	2	81%	0
T.Gurley	LAR	0	40	-20	42	-13.8%	40	-21.0%	49	207	197	2	63%	0
P.Laird	MIA	39	22	51	21	8.6%	19	15.4%	30	204	205	0	77%	0
B.Scott	PHI	67	17	62	16	29.0%	7	25.9%	26	204	250	0	92%	1
P.Lindsay	DEN	-69	50	-57	48	-39.7%	49	-35.0%	48	196	48	0	73%	0
D.Singletary	BUF	-47	48	-53	47	-35.2%	47	-37.7%	41	194	61	2	71%	0
D.Montgomery	CHI	15	34	8	36	-5.5%	30	-9.3%	35	185	164	1	71%	0
L.McCoy	KC	-34	44	-15	41	-32.2%	46	-22.0%	35	181	63	1	82%	1
T.Coleman	SF	23	30	28	27	0.0%	24	2.7%	30	180	168	1	70%	0
J.Jacobs	OAK	28	27	31	26	4.6%	20	6.6%	27	166	166	0	74%	0
D.Lewis	TEN	3	38	-8	40	-11.9%	38	-19.0%	32	164	115	1	78%	0
C.J.Ham	MIN	6	37	2	37	-10.1%	37	-12.5%	26	149	134	1	65%	0
T.Johnson	DET	-45	47	-60	50	-40.2%	50	-48.8%	31	109	29	0	77%	1

 

 

 

 

 

 

I would worry.  Rookies often get away with things.  The next year their weaknesses are on film to see. My opinion is that Singletary is about at his ceiling and the league will catch up with him.

I misread your initial post.  Whether Singletary is at his ceiling or not, I don't know, but as I mentioned in my initial post, agree with you or not about Singletary's potential, the Bills can use another good all around running back.

[Nanker]

If he falls to us, I'd love to see Zack Baun in a Bills Uni.

 

 

[BuffaloHokie13]

Last I looked, two people on TDN (Joe Marino and Kyle Crabbs) had us mocked to take Jonathan Taylor at 54 after a slide. That'd be great IMO.

[T master]

If they go with a WR at 54 i hope they go for Chase Claypool if still there the only thing with Chenault is his injury history was kind of a thing & that could be what is making him slide but we could do a lot worse !! 

[TigerJ]

2 hours ago, Nanker said:

If he falls to us, I'd love to see Zack Baun in a Bills Uni.

 

 

He falls to Buffalo in a few mocks.  More often than not though, he's taken well before Buffalo pick, sometimes even in round 1.