A Compilation of Some of Josh's Bad? Throws

[Don Otreply]

It is my hope that our receivers have something around 1/3 less drops, and our QB tightens up his mechanics sufficiently to be considered more consistent... just the fewer drops alone would put Josh over 60% pass completion percentage. If that happens, plus Josh tightening up his own game we can be dominant. The drops thing  has been ongoing for two seasons. Not that anyone needed me to bring it up again, but still, it has been the Achilles heel of our offense imo. 
 

Go Bills!!!

[Cripple Creek]

12 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

This is someone's idea of evidence for how inaccurate Josh is.  Some of these are either bad or poorly timed throws, for sure.  The question I have is how many of these were either tipped by a defender at the line or are instances where his arm hit in the middle of the throwing motion?  It is tough to tell for sure as most of the time it's a blur of an arm releasing a blur of a ball going by a blur of a hand or arm.    I think there are at least 6 of them.  

 

On some of them I remember cursing at Josh for missing such an open receiver.   Anyways, I think this sort of thing happens way more than often than anyone ever notices either live, in the TV replay or in the post game analysis.   You would need a high speed camera zoomed in on the ball to see enough detail to be 100 % sure.  Just looking for some TBD opinions.

 

 

Inaccurate Throws?????

 

:03   Not sure.  The ball seems to skip upward as it passes Steeler DL.

:12   Not sure but the ball enters the wash near Redskin's #91's arm.

:21   Throw needs a low trajectory.  The DL extends his arm out about shoulder high.  I think he got it.

:25   Obvious contact with Josh's forearm during the throw.

:37   Not 100% sure but looks like a tip by the DT as it looked like his fingers flexed backward.

:44   Two Pats defenders in his grill.  Either Josh short armed it or his arm was hit.

:50   Leaping Browns defender in Josh's face.  The ball looks slowed and lacks the normal zip.  I think he got it.

1:11 Can't tell for sure but the ball might have gone between DL's hands.  Looks volleyballed up and wobbly.

1:27 1st quarter vs. Ravens.  I think I gave a wtf at Josh from section 228 at this throw but it looks like Josh's arm and defender's are on a collision course.  Defender's arm looks to take a           post collision dip.

1:49 Cody Ford is waltzed backwards like Ginger Rodgers and kicks the shin of Josh's plant foot in the middle of the throw.

 

Confrimation Bias  (or confirmatory bias) is a tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions, leading to statistical errors.

 

“Give a man a reputation as an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon.”

― Mark Twain

 

He needs to continue to improve and there is much room.  If you do not see that you're blind.  

[CSBill]

Re-watched the playoff game yesterday: It's just something you can't take your eyes off, it has it all: The good, the bad, the ugly! He is "must see TV."

[Motorin']

35 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

He needs to continue to improve and there is much room.  If you do not see that you're blind.  

 

The only people who think Josh doesn't have room to improve are the people who are convinced he can't.

Edited April 11, 2020 by Motorin'

[Billl]

13 hours ago, Maybe Someday said:

I'm no mechanics guru but to me it looked like he was aiming rather than throwing on a lot of those passes. 

 

He's great when he can throw it on a rope. If he can get those touch throws down we'll be a dangerous offense. 

The pattern I’ve seen from him (which this video reinforces) is that he makes late reads.  Then, he has a tendency to try to make up for it by rushing to get the ball out of his hand in a hurry and ends up flicking it rather than throwing it.  He tucks his right elbow too close to his body.  It’s a little similar to how Lamar throws the ball, honestly.

10 hours ago, njbuff said:

I get the OP's point, but........................

 

Why is Josh Allen the ONLY QB on earth who has EVERY throw scrutinized?

Because he’s been dead last in completion percentage two seasons in a row.

[JESSEFEFFER]

14 hours ago, Bangarang said:

Cian Fahey is literally the last person I would listen to when it comes to any kind of player evaluation. 
 

He’s simply the worst. 

Not to sure about his reputation or agenda.  Appears to be a fired ESPN Analytics guy with a connection to Football Outsiders.  I would guess that he put the video together. 

 

If that is his exhibit A of Josh Allen sucks he did a lazy job of trying to make his point.  Picking 15 errant throws but having 1 with his shin kicked, 2 or 3 with his arm hit in midthrow and 3 to 6 with the ball tipped by a defender makes for a weak case.  One could question his ability to analyze anything.  Maybe he is the worst.

[YattaOkasan]

The part I don’t get is the overall %. It’s lower than just the three averaged. Deep balls would be the least so I would expect him to be closer to those two numbers. Something doesn’t check out.
 

Agree with other posters the problem is his mechanics on a lot of those throws. I’m still reminded that some scouts thought he might be 10k fewer throws than the other QBS in that draft 

[Shaw66]

Quote

The pattern I’ve seen from him (which this video reinforces) is that he makes late reads.  Then, he has a tendency to try to make up for it by rushing to get the ball out of his hand in a hurry and ends up flicking it rather than throwing it. 

 

This is what I've been saying for months, and watching these plays made we thing the same thing again.  

 

It's almost as though you can hear Josh's brains saying "uh, oh time's running out, gotta do something, THERE IT IS, THROW!!!!"  Sometimes time is running out because the rush is closing in, sometimes time is running out because the throwing window is closing.  Whatever the cause, he's feeling pressure, the time between decision and release gets short and he doesn't throw accurately.  

 

He needs to make better reads so that he can make decisions earlier in the play, and he has to learn to throw consistently even if he doesn't have enough time.

[Capco]

37 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

The part I don’t get is the overall %. It’s lower than just the three averaged. Deep balls would be the least so I would expect him to be closer to those two numbers. Something doesn’t check out.

 

I noticed that too.  The only way to bring his average down that much would be if he was throwing a lot of deep balls.  

 

The only thing I can think of is that some throws are weighted differently, or only certain throws are being looked at.  I did think the "4" might be a typo and that his completion % was  58.3%, but it was actually 58.8% last year.  So that's probably not it either.  

[Cripple Creek]

1 hour ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Not to sure about his reputation or agenda.  Appears to be a fired ESPN Analytics guy with a connection to Football Outsiders.  I would guess that he put the video together. 

 

If that is his exhibit A of Josh Allen sucks he did a lazy job of trying to make his point.  Picking 15 errant throws but having 1 with his shin kicked, 2 or 3 with his arm hit in midthrow and 3 to 6 with the ball tipped by a defender makes for a weak case.  One could question his ability to analyze anything.  Maybe he is the worst.

3-6 tipped passes is too many, and that is, in part on the QB, shared with OL.

 

For comparison, lil Drew Brees had 4 passes tipped last season (so did Bridgewater with significantly fewer throws).  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nor/2019_advanced.htm

 

Allen had 10 batted balls.  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2019_advanced.htm

 

They define a batted ball as occurring at the LOS, so none of those were downfield.

[Dr. Who]

25 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

 

This is what I've been saying for months, and watching these plays made we thing the same thing again.  

 

It's almost as though you can hear Josh's brains saying "uh, oh time's running out, gotta do something, THERE IT IS, THROW!!!!"  Sometimes time is running out because the rush is closing in, sometimes time is running out because the throwing window is closing.  Whatever the cause, he's feeling pressure, the time between decision and release gets short and he doesn't throw accurately.  

 

He needs to make better reads so that he can make decisions earlier in the play, and he has to learn to throw consistently even if he doesn't have enough time.

I really think you've nailed it. Processing what he's seeing on the field faster will determine if Allen becomes a franchise qb more than any other factor.

[JESSEFEFFER]

24 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

3-6 tipped passes is too many, and that is, in part on the QB, shared with OL.

 

For comparison, lil Drew Brees had 4 passes tipped last season (so did Bridgewater with significantly fewer throws).  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nor/2019_advanced.htm

 

Allen had 10 batted balls.  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2019_advanced.htm

 

They define a batted ball as occurring at the LOS, so none of those were downfield.

Everyone can see the effect of a batted ball. It crashes to the turf or pops into the air, vulnerable to an interception.  it's obvious to all.  What is the effect on the flight of the ball of a slight tip?  You can't always be sure it occurred.  Watch the video and try to stop it at the key parts.  When it's near the release point it's tougher to see.  At 80+ ft/s the ball is a blur and without seeing an established flight path you don't know for sure it was altered.  When it does happen it would be poor evidence of an "inaccurate" throw.  

 

Some have pointed out decision making tied to a late throw.  Late throws give the DL time to get their arms raised.

[YattaOkasan]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

I really think you've nailed it. Processing what he's seeing on the field faster will determine if Allen becomes a franchise qb more than any other factor.

Fair number of those throws though were quick reads from a clean pocket. I think those are wrong reads which I would agree is a processing problem (an accurate read vs a quick read).  
 

Honestly as a pure thrower Allen is super impressive if he has time. Heard he was the only one in the class to hit the cross bar of a FG from 30 yards out. Then he did it in 2 (maybe 1) throws with Simms. When he throws the fastball it can get away from him but his load to target is insane too.

 

Again as part of the processing I think he needs to know when to use each of those tools. Accuracy for the man plays. Load to target against that collapsing zone. Again he hasn’t played as many snaps (Hs + camps + college + NFL) as the other guys in his class so I am very hopeful he can grow.
 

Now with the tools the expectation is gonna be pretty high (division and a playoff win seems reasonable). 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

I really think you've nailed it. Processing what he's seeing on the field faster will determine if Allen becomes a franchise qb more than any other factor.

Thanks.  I think processing what's seeing depends on a variety of things.   One is experience.  I heard one of the former QB TV commentators say it took him four or five years of playing before he really understood what he was seeing in the defensive backfield.   Until you've seen something in real time, live, under fire, you can't learn to recognize it quickly and accurately.  

 

Another is book learning, study, week after week, year after year.   Every week you're learning what to do in this play against that formation, and every week you're learning about wrinkles that one team might run out of the formation.  That info isn't game specific; it piles up over time, and it's information that his brain relies in all his future games.  Sometime during last season, Brady said the game's gotten easy for him, because he's seen everything and he remembers it.  

 

Still another aspect, that I noticed watching these plays, is just how crazy it is in the pocket in the NFL.   It's intense, four or five guys who are literally trying to hurt you, and your guys are doing everything possible to keep them out, but they're losing ground.   Pockets don't last long in the NFL.   You have to learn to operate, to make decisions and execute in that environment.   That's different from courage.   You can see pretty quickly if a guy has the courage to stay in the pocket.  It isn't so easy to see if he can make decisions accurately and quickly with those guys closing in.  

 

All of that takes time to learn.  Some of it can be learned only by playing.    Many, I'd say most, QBs who really succeed at it take 4-5 years to get there.  It took Elway nine!   There are some young guys who seem to be getting it faster, but for every Mahomes there's a Goff.  

[gobills404]

2 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Not to sure about his reputation or agenda.  Appears to be a fired ESPN Analytics guy with a connection to Football Outsiders.  I would guess that he put the video together. 

 

If that is his exhibit A of Josh Allen sucks he did a lazy job of trying to make his point.  Picking 15 errant throws but having 1 with his shin kicked, 2 or 3 with his arm hit in midthrow and 3 to 6 with the ball tipped by a defender makes for a weak case.  One could question his ability to analyze anything.  Maybe he is the worst.

On twitter he's most well known for his terrible QB takes (see below) and blocking anyone who disagrees him. He's also been clutching to his pre-draft evaluation of Allen harder than anyone else I've seen. Just within the last month he has said that Allen's 2nd year was "a complete disaster" and that Allen is "the worst passer I've ever watched". He doesn't even try to hide his hate for Allen or come off as unbiased.

He also called Mariota an "emerging stud" and said he was a top 10 QB heading into this past season. He's legitimately one the dumbest sports writers I've ever seen. 

Edited April 11, 2020 by gobills404

[Shaw66]

9 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Fair number of those throws though were quick reads from a clean pocket. I think those are wrong reads which I would agree is a processing problem (an accurate read vs a quick read).  
 

Honestly as a pure thrower Allen is super impressive if he has time. Heard he was the only one in the class to hit the cross bar of a FG from 30 yards out. Then he did it in 2 (maybe 1) throws with Simms. When he throws the fastball it can get away from him but his load to target is insane too.

 

Again as part of the processing I think he needs to know when to use each of those tools. Accuracy for the man plays. Load to target against that collapsing zone. Again he hasn’t played as many snaps (Hs + camps + college + NFL) as the other guys in his class so I am very hopeful he can grow.
 

Now with the tools the expectation is gonna be pretty high (division and a playoff win seems reasonable). 

In the processing area, I find myself comparing Allen and Tyrod Taylor.  Tyrod clearly had plateaued in Buffalo.  He never got substantially better at managing the game, making decisions and executing.   He was just adequate, and there wasn't any evidence that he getting better.   I'd be happy for Taylor if the light went on for him with the Chargers, but I'm not betting on it. 

 

I think Fitzpatrick is the opposite extreme.  Fitzpatrick is physically limited, by NFL standards, but he's been getting better and better as the seasons pile up.  In every season except one since he left Buffalo, his passer rating has been better than his best season in Buffalo.  You can see it in how he plays - he's unfazed.  Nothing is new to him, he's comfortable.  

[gobills1212]

I dunno, i think theres a such this as being overly sensitive.  This might be that instance. Sure, these were some terrible throws. Some might have been better off not caught. Some may have bordered on throwaway, ie, ill put it out of reach and if my guy happens to catch it hes the only one i want w a sniff at it. Others just too quick - bad throw. 

That said, you can put a reel like this together from most qbs. Secondly,  if we have to deal w the occasional blip to get the crazy game breaking plays... im good w that. Its only when its reverses that it becomes an issue.

[Shaw66]

Fahey is trying to build a career as an expert in the way Mel Kiper did.   Just some guy who didn't know anything about football, just a fan, who studied stats and reached conclusions, started writing about his conclusions and observations.  Then he got a job at a recognized outlet.  The guy doesn't know the first thing about being a quarterback.   Not to say he couldn't learn, but that will take decades, not years. 

 

Kiper is completely self-taught.   He doesn't understand what a team's needs are, and he doesn't understand that teams are looking for the best player without regard to need, but his mock drafts repeatedly are based on his perceptions of a team's need.   It's ridiculous.  

9 minutes ago, gobills1212 said:

I dunno, i think theres a such this as being overly sensitive.  This might be that instance. Sure, these were some terrible throws. Some might have been better off not caught. Some may have bordered on throwaway, ie, ill put it out of reach and if my guy happens to catch it hes the only one i want w a sniff at it. Others just too quick - bad throw. 

That said, you can put a reel like this together from most qbs. Secondly,  if we have to deal w the occasional blip to get the crazy game breaking plays... im good w that. Its only when its reverses that it becomes an issue.

Yes, you can put together reels like this on any QB, but it's a lot tougher to do it for Brees or Rodgers than it is for Allen.   For Brees, he rarely seems to be in a hurry; for Rodgers it seems he performs well when he's in a hurry.   For Allen, it translates into a sub-60 completion percentage.  

[gobills1212]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Fahey is trying to build a career as an expert in the way Mel Kiper did.   Just some guy who didn't know anything about football, just a fan, who studied stats and reached conclusions, started writing about his conclusions and observations.  Then he got a job at a recognized outlet.  The guy doesn't know the first thing about being a quarterback.   Not to say he couldn't learn, but that will take decades, not years. 

 

Kiper is completely self-taught.   He doesn't understand what a team's needs are, and he doesn't understand that teams are looking for the best player without regard to need, but his mock drafts repeatedly are based on his perceptions of a team's need.   It's ridiculous.  

Yes, you can put together reels like this on any QB, but it's a lot tougher to do it for Brees or Rodgers than it is for Allen.   For Brees, he rarely seems to be in a hurry; for Rodgers it seems he performs well when he's in a hurry.   For Allen, it translates into a sub-60 completion percentage.  

Which,  goes right into the 2nd part of my point. If thats the cost, thats cool w me. We all want consistency but w a boom or bust player, as long as its on the boom side it is what it is

[njbuff]

10 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You’re not serious are you?  Tom Freaking Brady just switched teams And got talked about being washed up.  It’s the nature of the position.

 

And Allen gets criticized because he has never been above 60% (which is basically a benchmark for average ) on any level ever.  Despite no incompletion ever being Allen’s fault according to some on this board, he needs to get better. Flat out.  They have a top 5 trio so hopefully the excuses are finally done for the highest drafted qb in franchise history.

 

I am not going to engage here.

 

I will just say..............

 

If you and the other Allen non-believers didn't think that Allen improved significantly from year one to year two..................

 

I don't know what to tell you.