Kickers in the draft

[MrEpsYtown]

20 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

 

tampa had the right idea with roberto but man that guy turned out to be a complete headcase.   kicker is like a goalie in hockey. you dont need the hall of fame one to win it all and one isn't going to take you the whole way but you need a very good one.  esp in the playoffs where points are scarce and the margin of victory is usually very tight. 

I agreed with the goalie idea. But I don’t think Tampa had the right idea. I think they made him a head case by drafting him so early while you can typically get one as an UDFA. 
 

Here’s my thing, I know the draft is a crapshoot, but look at the names drafted immediately after Agyuao....James Bradberry, Vonn Bell, Yannick Ngakoue, Austin Hooper, and later in that draft Matt Judon and Tyreek Hill (in fact when Tamp traded up, they gave extra picks to Kansas City, which likely gave them the confidence to take a shot on a controversial Hill later that draft.)

 

Anyway, it’s revisionist history, but in this very draft Ka’imi Fairbarn and Wil Lutz were UDFA. The value just isn’t there when drafting a kicker, especially when you consider what you might be passing on. 

Edited April 11, 2020 by MrEpsYtown

[aristocrat]

9 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I agreed with the goalie idea. But I don’t think Tampa had the right idea. I think they made him a head case by drafting him so early while you can typically get one as an UDFA. 
 

Here’s my thing, I know the draft is a crapshoot, but look at the names drafted immediately after Agyuao....James Bradberry, Vonn Bell, Yannick Ngakoue, Austin Hooper, and later in that draft Matt Judon and Tyreek Hill (in fact when Tamp traded up, they gave extra picks to Kansas City, which likely gave them the confidence to take a shot on a controversial Hill later that draft.)

 

Anyway, it’s revisionist history, but in this very draft Ka’imi Fairbarn and Wil Lutz were UDFA. The value just isn’t there when drafting a kicker, especially when you consider what you might be passing on. 

 

the guy was very good in college and hindsight is always funny.  look at justin tucker...undrafted.   haushka undrafted.  doesn't seem to be any correlation to success in college and success in the nfl. 

[Fan in Chicago]

12 hours ago, JR in Pittsburgh said:

I’ll take Haush Money, myself. 
 

it seems like rookie kickers are too risky and often don’t work out. 

 

Hauscka came on late in the season but his early struggles warrant concern. I would like the Bills to draft a punter as well as a kicker in this draft. Much as any other position, let camp decide who stays and who goes.

My logic for using the final round picks is that - players at other positions rarely stick with a team. Also, given that many of the kickers and punters are undrafted, using our picks secures their services with little opportunity cost. 

 

[MrEpsYtown]

17 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

 

the guy was very good in college and hindsight is always funny.  look at justin tucker...undrafted.   haushka undrafted.  doesn't seem to be any correlation to success in college and success in the nfl. 

100%. I totally agree. And I think that is why you can’t draft one high. Kickers are a strange science and way too risky. Just sign an UDFA every year, and one will stick. 

[Blokestradamus]

19 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

doesn't seem to be any correlation to success in college and success in the nfl. 

 

Trust me when I say that I've looked into it. I tried a statistical model with multiple variations; couldn't find any one thing that was a clear indicator of kicker success. I did this in 2017 and, at that time, one of the guys with an NFL job was around 60% in college.

 

The best theory that I've come up with is that players that have statistical regression in their final season in college might be less likely to succeed. Aguayo was one of those guys.

 

Best way for me is to watch them and study technique. I was pro Dustin Hopkins and Fairbairn > Aguayo. Maybe give me a job, Bills.

[4BillsintheBurgh]

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Kaare Vedvik. I believe he is focusing on punting as he has been awful as a place kicker. The Ravens had him and he was an interesting prospect who kicked really well in preseason. The Ravens traded him to the Vikings for a 5th round pick, and he was so bad they cut him a couple of weeks later. The Jets signed him and he pretty much singlehandedly lost the Bills-Jets game week 1. And they cut him. He’s a guy who seems like he can’t handle the pressure in games. 

This is interesying when talking about the value of kickers:

 

 

 

I forgot he was switching to punter - so that provides some competition for Bojo. With the lack of OTA's I wonder if they will have enough confidence to not bother taking a punter.

 

Well, at the time Min thought they were getting a starting kicker/punter, he had done well in the preseason. Does seem a little lop-sided, but I don't know all the financial details and the conversation the Jags were having with Campbell like how badly he wanted out and if the Jags did him a favor by sending him to a contender. 

[1ManRaid]

18 hours ago, Lurker said:

The Pats cut this guy in December, but may invite him back to training camp:

 

 

When he uploads an uncut video of how many he hits out of 10 while in pads, with a snap and hold, having to elevate over blockers, and less of a run up then I'll be impressed.  All he showed is he maybe can kick for touchbacks.

 

Any idiot with a strong leg can upload a clip of the one time out of a hundred they put it through the uprights.  He left a successful soccer career to try his hand at a different sport with no college experience, just to be a below average kicker in arena football.  He also doesn't seem very smart from his interviews, admitting to being afraid to get hit and that the reason he left soccer was just because he didn't like their player lending system (because being unemployed it much better apparently).

[CSBill]

Kickers are a funny breed. I like Hausch Money, he started slow last year but finished well.

 

But, the one thing I see is the McDermott does not seem to trust him for any long attempts. That may just be his conservatism showing, or does he just not think Hauschka can make them consistently enough?

 

More likely, its a combination of both. It always seems like a strain for Hauschka to get it to the end zone on kickoffs, and we know McD is not a big risk taker and will trust his defense over a long try when given the option.

 

But its also that conservatism that probably keeps Hauschka around. Stay with what you know, rather than risk an unpredictable younger option.

Edited April 11, 2020 by CSBill

[MrEpsYtown]

11 minutes ago, CSBill said:

Kickers are a funny breed. I like Hausch Money, he started slow last year but finished well.

 

But, the one thing I see is the McDermott does not seem to trust him for any long attempts. That may just be his conservatism showing, or does he just not think Hauschka can make them consistently enough?

 

More likely, its a combination of both. It always seems like a strain for Hauschka to get it to the end zone on kickoffs, and we know McD is not a big risk taker and will trust his defense over a long try when given the option.

 

But its also that conservatism that probably keeps Hauschka around. Stay with what you know, rather than risk an unpredictable younger option.

I recall them putting in a claim for their own UDFA Chase McClaughlin when he was waived by the 49ers and awarded to the Colts. Looks like he is the Colts’ guy going forward. This could definitely be a place they could look for an upgrade and I would not be totally against using a pick, just not before the 5th round. I do hope they draft Mann or Turk as a new punter. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

44 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

 

Hauscka came on late in the season but his early struggles warrant concern. I would like the Bills to draft a punter as well as a kicker in this draft. Much as any other position, let camp decide who stays and who goes.

My logic for using the final round picks is that - players at other positions rarely stick with a team. Also, given that many of the kickers and punters are undrafted, using our picks secures their services with little opportunity cost. 

 

the risk for me is that they draft a kicker who has a great camp and then edges Haush out. We cut Haush and said rookie kicker goes into the toilet during the season and we are on the kicking carousel. I feel like this exact scenario happens year after year to teams. So much if kicking  the NFL seems to

be mental.

 

i would much prefer to stay with a vet, and wait for a free agent to come along or draft a guy when we are in absolute desperation mode. 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Why arent there more guys that can kick and punt? It would save a roster spot, and make them more valuable. Just wondering. 

[MrEpsYtown]

10 minutes ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

Why arent there more guys that can kick and punt? It would save a roster spot, and make them more valuable. Just wondering. 

It’s just that they are such specialized skills that if you have one guy doing both jobs, he probably won’t be able to truly do a great job at both. There is also increased chance of injury and dead leg. The limited time in practice also hurts. Having an effective punter and kicker is way more important than having and extra 4th string linebacker. 

Edited April 11, 2020 by MrEpsYtown

[4BillsintheBurgh]

45 minutes ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

Why arent there more guys that can kick and punt? It would save a roster spot, and make them more valuable. Just wondering. 

I think it's mainly muscle memory. For example, try playing golf and softball during the same season. Assuming you swing with the same hand, there are enough differences to where one effects the other. Like you hit a lot of pop flies playing softball. ?

[Saxum]

3 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

The draft value just isn’t there early becuase that is how the entire league views it. I think Tampa’s trading up and drafting Roberto Aguayo will forever ruin the chance at highly picked kickers. They drafted him 59 and gave up 74 and 106 to get to him. And some people are upset about we gave up for Diggs. 
 

 

The mistake with Aguayo was he did not kick many long kicks in college. He could kick long but not accurate (anyone need kickoff specialist?).

 

What about Sebastian Janikowski, the Polish Pounder, selected by the Oakland Raiders 17th overall in the 2000 NFL Draft?

He was a weapon for Raiders for many years.

 

 

[Saxum]

50 minutes ago, 4BillsintheBurgh said:

I think it's mainly muscle memory. For example, try playing golf and softball during the same season. Assuming you swing with the same hand, there are enough differences to where one effects the other. Like you hit a lot of pop flies playing softball. ?

 

Wonder if you could use golf swing on baseball to knock it in the stands.

Never could play baseball due to vision (lazy eye). 

Hard to hit the ball when the ball is not in position you see it at.

Never had that trouble with football but the football is bigger and if you tap it at wrong spot it still changes directions.

[MrEpsYtown]

27 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

The mistake with Aguayo was he did not kick many long kicks in college. He could kick long but not accurate (anyone need kickoff specialist?).

 

What about Sebastian Janikowski, the Polish Pounder, selected by the Oakland Raiders 17th overall in the 2000 NFL Draft?

He was a weapon for Raiders for many years.

 

 

There is actually a lot of debate out there questioning whether he was worth a first round pick. People for him point out how good he was from long range, and as you said a true weapon. Other people feel that even though he made big kicks and was a weapon, he wasn’t really the best kicker in the league at any point and won’t be in the Hall of Fame. In all honesty he doesn’t even crack the top 10 list of kickers the last 20 years. So was he good? Yes. His leg was a missle and he could do some things nobody else could. But was he really worth a first round pick? I don’t think so. (Especially when you consider who was picked 199 in that particular draft.) But yeah I thinks it’s up for debate. He was good, but wasn’t as good as his peers who are mostly UDFAs and late rounders, so the value just isn’t there. 

Edited April 11, 2020 by MrEpsYtown

[CSBill]

20 hours ago, Lurker said:

The Pats cut this guy in December, but may invite him back to training camp:

 

 

 

Can't help but being intrigued by this. But as someone said, if the Pats let him go, with all their kicking woes last year, consistency has to be an issue. But still  . . .

[Saxum]

8 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I don’t think so. (Especially when you consider who was picked 199 in that particular draft.) But yeah I thinks it’s up for debate. He was good, but wasn’t as good as his peers who are mostly UDFAs and late rounders, so the value just isn’t there. 

 

Plenty of teams skipped picking whomever was 199 in that draft.  If you think that player is THAT valuable you could be making that argument for 198 players.  Most of the UDFAs and late rounders took years to get good with many teams having really bad kickers, kickers which cost them games.

 

You could make the same arguments about QBs.

[MrEpsYtown]

19 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

Plenty of teams skipped picking whomever was 199 in that draft.  If you think that player is THAT valuable you could be making that argument for 198 players.  Most of the UDFAs and late rounders took years to get good with many teams having really bad kickers, kickers which cost them games.

 

You could make the same arguments about QBs.

For sure. I think the majority of the quarterbacks who are good, special etc. (aside from 199 and a few outliers) are quarterbacks drafted in the first round. That’s the biggest thing, you want to get a quarterback? Odds are you need to find him in the first round. 
 

That is not the case with kickers, you can find them anywhere and the majority are UDFAs. You just have to find the right one. So I guess my point is that if you look at the draft as a science, history says draft a quarterback early, do not draft a kicker anywhere.  

[MrEpsYtown]

And just to add, teams get stuck with bad kickers when they draft them or pay them. Because they invested a pick or money in them, they feel the need to stick with them, sometimes way too long. Kickers are so volatile, like bullpen arms in baseball, so it just doesn’t make sense to invest too much in one.