Would You Attend A Bills Game Without A Covid-19 Vaccine?

[Buffalo03]

Yes, I would. This whole social distancing thing is ridiculous anyway. I saw one guy on tv say that walking down the street in NYC is unsafe because of the crowded sidewalks. You can't even walk past people? That just sounds stupid. Unless someone has symptoms, it's probably ok to be near them. I still can't wrap my head around how a virus this deadly that's causing a nationwide shutdown could cause no symptoms whatsoever. So, someone can be more symptomatic with a simple little sinus or allergy problem but walk around with this virus without showing any signs of it and feeling perfectly normal? Sounds a little weird to me

Edited April 15, 2020 by Buffalo03

[Doc Brown]

4 hours ago, NFLBighits said:

That rate I gave was world-wide.  H1N1 killed alot more people then covid19. So far anyways.

You mean the flu strain that killed around 12,500 Americans in a 12 month stretch and 575,400 worldwide.  The number of coronavirus deaths are more than double that in the US within a month and a half (with mitigation efforts) and have surpassed the swine flu in totalities nationally.  I'm bullish on wanting to get the economy rolling again but people who compare this to the flu are misguided.

 

Btw....the last thing I would've expected to be arguing on a football message board four months ago was which novel virus was more lethal.

[Buffalo03]

26 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

You don't seem to understand much about COVID-19.

you're right. I'm no medical professional but a lot of what they're saying about it just doesn't add up to me. I mean people younger than me and in better shape than me have died from this but I could have it and not even know it and run a marathon right now if I was able to? It almost sounds to me like a scare tactic for people to kake the virus sound worse than it is. I even read an article saying how Fauci said we don't have to worry about asymptomatic people and then has now changed what he said. It just sounds phony 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 4/13/2020 at 12:01 PM, LABILLBACKER said:

When everyone takes the antibody test the world will be shocked how many people had this and didn't know (asymptomatic)

 

I don't want to derail this, but keep in mind the reliability of a good antibody tests depends entirely on prevalence.  Mosey over to the Facts-only thread for a pictorial explanation.

 

Fast track version:

Test with 95% specificity means 5% false positives.  5% of 329 million people is 16.5M false positives

If 50% of the population has had the disease, that means 164.5M true positives => 91% chance that your "positive" result is a true positive.  YAY!

50% is also the target figure for herd immunity with a basic reproduction number of 2.0, double YAY!

 

If only 5% of the population has had the disease, that means 16.45M true positives => 50% chance that your "positive" result is a true positive.  Not so "yay"!

 

Bottom line, I hope you're right, it's a beautiful outcome for US in so many ways

Also bottom line, the current estimates of prevalence for the US are running more like 5% (higher in some big cities).

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

Yes, I would. This whole social distancing thing is ridiculous anyway. I saw one guy on tv say that walking down the street in NYC is unsafe because of the crowded sidewalks. You can't even walk past people? That just sounds stupid. Unless someone has symptoms, it's probably ok to be near them. I still can't wrap my head around how a virus this deadly that's causing a nationwide shutdown could cause no symptoms whatsoever. So, someone can be more symptomatic with a simple little sinus or allergy problem but walk around with this virus without showing any signs of it and feeling perfectly normal? Sounds a little weird to me

 

1 hour ago, Buffalo03 said:

you're right. I'm no medical professional but a lot of what they're saying about it just doesn't add up to me. I mean people younger than me and in better shape than me have died from this but I could have it and not even know it and run a marathon right now if I was able to? It almost sounds to me like a scare tactic for people to kake the virus sound worse than it is. I even read an article saying how Fauci said we don't have to worry about asymptomatic people and then has now changed what he said. It just sounds phony 

 

I'll take this one, then I'd like to re-direct you to either the OTW covid discussion thread or the PPP covid discussion thread, depending upon your personal preferences.

 

This is a novel disease.  Experts looked at the data they have initially, and drew conclusions based on that data.  Later different data came out, justifying a change of conclusions.  It's not unlike sports in that regard - pundits start the season thinking "these are the good teams, these are the bad teams" then data (game results) come out and smart pundits are data-driven and change their mind.  You know, how the Browns and Jets were gonna be a Superbowl contendera and the Bills would suck, August 2019.

 

Initially the WHO-China joint report was saying that true asymptomatic cases were only 1-2%.  Therefore, experts concluded asymptomatic people were not a major driver of transmission.  They also believed that the virus wasn't staying suspended (in aerosols) for long, so just a bit of distance (3 feet) and no face covering was fine.

New data:

1) Several reliable countries with lots of testing show now 20-25% asymptomatic people.  Some studies (Iceland, some Italian towns, cruise ship) have measured as high as 40-50%.

2) Several outbreaks in US have been traced to groups which were practicing social distancing (no physical contact, 3' spacing) and attended by no one symptomatic - Example Skagit County choir practice 45 of 60 attendees contracted covid-19, no attendee had symptoms at the time.
3) NEJM Study showed that covid-19 may remain suspended in aerosols up to 3 hrs.

4) Observationally, the countries with the best success containing their epidemics and keeping life normal and business open are all wearing masks in public.

So your "probably safe" is NOT in keeping with the current best data.  It's the exact analogue of insisting the Bills still suck and the Browns are still a Superbowl contender after Thanksgiving 2019.  The smart people are flexible, and change their thinking to adapt to new information.  Wear a mask.  Stay away from people.

 

How can one person become seriously ill but another run a marathon right now?  Welcome to the Wonderful Variability of the Human Immune System.  One person gets Hella sick from something another person shrugs off.  While covid-19 is a novel disease, this principle is NOT novel.  Example: Polio is kind of a mild flu in ~98% of adults who contract it, and a horrible, paralytic disease leading to death without advanced life support in ~1%.   Per Mayo clinic "The majority of people who are infected with polio don't get sick and aren't aware they've been infected".

We haven't had to worry too much about polio in the US since the first vaccine in 1955.  Older physicians and great-grandparents can tell you that the reason Polio was feared and so hard to control, was precisely BECAUSE it was a mild (even asymptomatic) disease in the majority of the people who contracted it, very difficult to distinguish from flu or other seasonal viruses. 

Covid-19 may be the Polio of our time.

 

And putting my Mod hat on, no I will not allow repeated and extended discussion of covid-19 outside the covid-19 threads.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

There are several well established places here where covid-19 can be discussed freely on Two Bills Drive:

-one discussion thread  in Off the Wall where political diversions and some inaccurate info are minimized

-one in PPP where pretty much "anything goes". 

 

The point is to maintain a place where we can discuss football and football-related stuff here on The Stadium Wall - which would include opinions about whether or not you, personally, would attend a game or what conditions you, personally, would like to see to feel comfortable with that

 

I'd prefer to leave this thread open, but if I have to keep coming by pruning it because folks just can't stop themselves from general covid discussion, it'll lock

 

 

[Section27]

This is a very significant event,

First, there is a substantial level of misunderstanding regarding vaccines. There were 300 million deaths from smallpox in the the 20th century. That is the entire population of the US. Health care workers risked their lives to immunize people in third world countries in efforts to eradicate this horrific disease. Eradication of smallpox was an amazing achievement. Read up on this. Smallpox was horrible. Polio was a terrible disease. Parents would not let their children out doors in the summer as they feared polio. I was one of the first to get the polio vaccine. I remember standing in line at the school getting the vaccine. We are far removed from the devastation of these diseases. Measles, rubella, mumps, etc. Immunizations have been so successful, people today do not understand how successful vaccines are. A vaccine for covid would be wonderful.

Covid is horrific. Just because people have different responses to infection does not diminish how serious this is. We are now seeing 2,000 deaths a day from this, despite the most extreme restrictions in history. That would approach 1 mlllion deaths in a year. We need to take every caution possible.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

21 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't want to derail this, but keep in mind the reliability of a good antibody tests depends entirely on prevalence.  Mosey over to the Facts-only thread for a pictorial explanation.

 

Fast track version:

Test with 95% specificity means 5% false positives.  5% of 329 million people is 16.5M false positives

If 50% of the population has had the disease, that means 164.5M true positives => 91% chance that your "positive" result is a true positive.  YAY!

50% is also the target figure for herd immunity with a basic reproduction number of 2.0, double YAY!

 

If only 5% of the population has had the disease, that means 16.45M true positives => 50% chance that your "positive" result is a true positive.  Not so "yay"!

 

Bottom line, I hope you're right, it's a beautiful outcome for US in so many ways

Also bottom line, the current estimates of prevalence for the US are running more like 5% (higher in some big cities).

 

 

 

Nerd. ?

[babulator]

I was telling my wife how mad I'll be if they pull the plug on this season, This is our year, right???

Id go without batting an eye. I'm just wondering how I'll make it to the following game after I get it... 14 day quarantine and all.

One game at a time I guess

[chaccof]

On 4/10/2020 at 8:15 PM, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Everytime I drive by Wegmans it's packed with cars.

Went to Wegman's in Richmond, VA last week to get Weber's mustard and Sahlen's hot dogs and the place was a zoo.  Gonna have to do without both until this crisis clears up or the vaccine comes out.   I'd personally be hard pressed to go to any sporting event, theater, movie house, etc. until more is known about transmission and measures taken or a vaccine comes out.  

[Saxum]

32 minutes ago, chaccof said:

Went to Wegman's in Richmond, VA last week to get Weber's mustard and Sahlen's hot dogs and the place was a zoo.  Gonna have to do without both until this crisis clears up or the vaccine comes out.   I'd personally be hard pressed to go to any sporting event, theater, movie house, etc. until more is known about transmission and measures taken or a vaccine comes out.  

 

They have curbside pickup and delivery.

[Mr. WEO]

I always get a shot of Penicillin before I head to a game....

[Niagara Bill]

Attending a game without a vaccine will never happen. Suicide.