CBS Sports Calculates the Bills Projected Win Total in 2020

[jletha]

9 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Exactly how I feel, except I think 9 wins MAY even win the division this year. The entire AFC East has it tough when it comes to the schedule. I think that the Bills can win the division by default to a certain extent. Miami is better but not good (although they have world’s of draft capital), the Jets are a mess and New England isn’t good (they aren’t). I’m not sure another AFC East team gets to 8 wins. Miami could win 8 as their crossover games are Cincinnati and Jacksonville. Other than that I just don’t see it. 

One benefit is the three best QBs we will play next year we have at home. Entire AFC East has to play Mahomes and Wilson but we get them in Buffalo, along with Big Ben. Our away schedule is less daunting with SF being the only really scary team on the list. Add in that we are the most talented team in the AFC East, I think its clear we are in the drivers seat for the division.

 

Both the Pats and NYJ play the Rams, Seahawks and Chiefs away.

 

Edited April 10, 2020 by jletha

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, jletha said:

One benefit is the three best QBs we will play next year we have at home. Entire AFC East has to play Mahomes and Wilson but we get them in Buffalo, along with Big Ben. Our away schedule is less daunting with SF being the only really scary team on the list. Add in that we are the most talented team in the AFC East, I think its clear we are in the drivers seat for the division.

That’s a really good point on the QBs!! Those games being at home is probably a 1 game swing for the Bills IMO. If those 3 were on the road I’d anticipate 1-2. With those being at home I’d say 2-1. 
 

I think that the Bills split the NFC West and crossover games. That’s being fairly conservative on those games. That has them at 3-3. Let’s call the division record 4-2 (which again may be a little conservative). The AFC West should be 2-2 to 3-1 IMO. That’s 9-10 wins there and that’s being reasonable.

I don’t see a path for the other team’s in the division to get there. Miami is the only POSSIBLE exception IMO. If they play 4-2 in the division and 2-0 in the crossover games they’d need to go 4-4 vs. the AFC & NFC West teams. I’m not sure that they are quite good enough to do that but it’s not insane.

[jletha]

9 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s a really good point on the QBs!! Those games being at home is probably a 1 game swing for the Bills IMO. If those 3 were on the road I’d anticipate 1-2. With those being at home I’d say 2-1. 
 

I think that the Bills split the NFC West and crossover games. That’s being fairly conservative on those games. That has them at 3-3. Let’s call the division record 4-2 (which again may be a little conservative). The AFC West should be 2-2 to 3-1 IMO. That’s 9-10 wins there and that’s being reasonable.

I don’t see a path for the other team’s in the division to get there. Miami is the only POSSIBLE exception IMO. If they play 4-2 in the division and 2-0 in the crossover games they’d need to go 4-4 vs. the AFC & NFC West teams. I’m not sure that they are quite good enough to do that but it’s not insane.

Without a QB I dont see MIA being good. Theyre rising but not there with Fitz and likely not with a rookie QB either. Ill never count the Pats out unfortunately.

Edited April 10, 2020 by jletha

[Stank_Nasty]

40 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. 10 wins would not mean a levelling out. On this schedule it would mean significant progress. 

 

To have a chance of 10 wins I think they need to go 5-1 in division. Playing .500 football against the AFCW and the NFCW plus Tennessee and Pittsburgh is gonna be easier said than done. 

 

I am right between 9 and 10 wins and I think 10 would be enough to win the division. 

I’ve maintained all offseason I can see another 10-6 record in store. And I would be perfectly fine with that because of the schedule. I think it would mean they are a better team. I also think it would nab the division and get them a home playoff game/win while preparing them for a real run at the conference. 
 

 

[TroutDog]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Exactly how I feel, except I think 9 wins MAY even win the division this year. The entire AFC East has it tough when it comes to the schedule. I think that the Bills can win the division by default to a certain extent. Miami is better but not good (although they have world’s of draft capital), the Jets are a mess and New England isn’t good (they aren’t). I’m not sure another AFC East team gets to 8 wins. Miami could win 8 as their crossover games are Cincinnati and Jacksonville. Other than that I just don’t see it. 

Kirby, you’re really ready to write the Pats*** off? Even though they’ve been a terrible drafting team, BB always seems to find a way. I am leaning towards Bean on this where he states they are still the gold standard in the AFCE. 

[Kirby Jackson]

59 minutes ago, jletha said:

Without a QB I dont see MIA being good. Theyre rising but not there with Fitz and likely not with a rookie QB either. Ill never count the Pats out unfortunately.

I know this is a popular sentiment but it’s from 20 years of trauma. You say in the first sentence without a QB Miami can’t be good but in the 3rd sentence you worry about Jarrett Stidham. Right now Miami has a better QB situation, as good of a roster and an easier schedule (Jacksonville & Cincinnati instead of Houston & Baltimore).
 

The Patriots are more likely to finish fourth in the division than to win it in my opinion. That’s a bad football team. Their front 7 took some big hits, their skill players aren’t good, they lost Brady and they play the toughest schedule in football. Unless they sign Cam and he reverts back to 2015 Cam or they sign Jameis and the light bulb goes off they are a bad team. They are a 6 win type of team.

[Kirby Jackson]

13 minutes ago, TroutDog said:

Kirby, you’re really ready to write the Pats*** off? Even though they’ve been a terrible drafting team, BB always seems to find a way. I am leaning towards Bean on this where he states they are still the gold standard in the AFCE. 

He finds a way because they’ve always been good and had Brady. The year he was hurt their roster was loaded. The Patriots are a 6 win team. We just have PTSD from the last 20 years. If you are to objectively look at that team it isn’t good. When you factor in the QB situation it is probably a bottom 5 roster in football. They have a good secondary and decent OL that lost their legendary OL coach. They have bad skill players, a below average front 7 and the worst QB situation in the league. They are so done. We were winning the division this year whether Brady was there or not. Even an old Brady though gave them a shot at 9-10 wins against that schedule. This team will be lucky to win 6 games. 

[jletha]

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I know this is a popular sentiment but it’s from 20 years of trauma. You say in the first sentence without a QB Miami can’t be good but in the 3rd sentence you worry about Jarrett Stidham. Right now Miami has a better QB situation, as good of a roster and an easier schedule (Jacksonville & Cincinnati instead of Houston & Baltimore).
 

The Patriots are more likely to finish fourth in the division than to win it in my opinion. That’s a bad football team. Their front 7 took some big hits, their skill players aren’t good, they lost Brady and they play the toughest schedule in football. Unless they sign Cam and he reverts back to 2015 Cam or they sign Jameis and the light bulb goes off they are a bad team. They are a 6 win type of team.

I do not worry about Jarrett Stidham, I worry about Bill Belichek. He went 11-5 with Cassel and 3-1 when Brady was suspended. We also dont know how good/bad Stidham might be. And their defense was good, even if it was overhyped for most of the year. They won the division last year and Brady was brutal for most of the season.

[Kirby Jackson]

8 minutes ago, jletha said:

I do not worry about Jarrett Stidham, I worry about Bill Belichek. He went 11-5 with Cassel and 3-1 when Brady was suspended. We also dont know how good/bad Stidham might be. And their defense was good, even if it was overhyped for most of the year. They won the division last year and Brady was brutal for most of the season.

Those team’s were WAY better than this one though. That’s like saying, “I worry about UNC football because that Mack Brown team in 2006 was good.” They aren’t the same guys. The Patriots went 16-0 the year before Cassel played. What kind of roster did they have? They won the Super Bowl the year of Brady’s suspension I think.
 

Their defense lost Van Noy, Collins and Shelton. They lost 3 key guys in the front 7. That defense was GREAT early last year and pretty good as time went on. They are a totally different unit. That’s the equivalent of the Bills defense losing Hyde, Poyer and Milano in 1 offseason and not replacing him. We’d have to view them differently even though they were good last year.

 

BB is a genius. That’s the reason that they may get to 6 wins with that schedule. Look at this Patriots depth chart. How are they going to score? How are they going to rush the passer? This is a bad team and everyone is scared to say it because they are always good. This is a different team however. The days of the Patriots winning double-digit games because of the uniforms that they put on are over. 

Edited April 10, 2020 by Kirby Jackson

[jletha]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Those team’s were WAY better than this one though. That’s like saying, “I worry about UNC football because that Mack Brown team in 2006 was good.” They aren’t the same guys. 
 

Their defense lost Van Noy, Collins and Shelton. They lost 3 key guys in the front 7. That defense was GREAT early last year and pretty good as time went on. They are a totally different unit. That’s the equivalent of the Bills defense losing Hyde, Poyer and Milano in 1 offseason and not replacing him. We’d have to view them differently even though they were good last year.

 

BB is a genius. That’s the reason that they may get to 6 wins with that schedule. Look at this Patriots depth chart. How are they going to score? How are they going to rush the passer? This is a bad team and everyone is scared to say it because they are always good. This is a different team however. The days of the Patriots winning double-digit games because of the uniforms that they put on are over. 

Theyve always lost guys and had new ones fill in. Theyve shipped out Seymour, Collins. Lost Gronk, Welker, Moss, etc and they continue to win. I will never doubt them until I see it with my own eyes. I dont think they can do from 12-4 to under 6 wins with Belichek still steering the ship. I dont think its inconceivable that Stidham can replicate what Brady did from a stats perspective. Whether or not that translates to wins, time will tell.

 

I remember the time when we hired McDermott we turned over  our entire secondary and that was supposed to be our biggest weakness and it was our best unit. If anyone can fill voids with next-men-up its Belichek.

[chris heff]

2 hours ago, ALLEN-2-DIGGS-TD!! said:

Sure is nice with no more #12 around. Crash and burn Pats!!!!

From your keyboard to God’s ear.

[Kirby Jackson]

27 minutes ago, jletha said:

Theyve always lost guys and had new ones fill in. Theyve shipped out Seymour, Collins. Lost Gronk, Welker, Moss, etc and they continue to win. I will never doubt them until I see it with my own eyes. I dont think they can do from 12-4 to under 6 wins with Belichek still steering the ship. I dont think its inconceivable that Stidham can replicate what Brady did from a stats perspective. Whether or not that translates to wins, time will tell.

 

I remember the time when we hired McDermott we turned over  our entire secondary and that was supposed to be our biggest weakness and it was our best unit. If anyone can fill voids with next-men-up its Belichek.

You really think Jarrett Stidham is going to complete 61% of his passes for 4,100 yards and a 3:1 TD to INT ratio? I don’t. They have the worst QB situation in the league right now (by a lot). As it stands it would take ELITE coaching for them to move from 32 to say 25. Again, that can change if they add somebody but as of now they are awful at QB.

 

They lost their legendary OL coach to retirement. Their OL should be an above average unit but with a new QB and Scarnecchia retiring is it unreasonable to think that they may regress to average? It’s probably likely.

 

Their skill players are at, or near, the bottom oF the league as well. That’s a huge reason that Brady left. He didn’t trust anyone but Edelman. 
 

They lost their 2 top pass rushers in Van Noy and Collins. They couldn’t replace them because of cap issues. The secondary is one of the best in football but will be negatively impacted by one of football’s worst pass rushes. 
 

In terms of 2008 it is irrelevant to this conversation. Matthew Slater is the only player on this Patriots roster that was on that team. The 2007 team was 16-0!! Of course when they showed up in 2008, Brady or not, they were going to be good. They had an elite roster. They were 11-5. This team is not that team. This Patriots team lost the greatest QB of all-time, it’s 2 top pass rushers, the best OL coach in the league and it’s run stuffing  DT. None of those people were adequately replaced. 
 

If there is anyone on this board that want to take the Patriots over 9.5 wins I’d be happy to book that for you. I reserve the right to change depending on whether or not they add a QB. At the moment though this team is bad. We shouldn’t think that they will automatically be good because they were 12 years ago when Brady was out. They aren’t the same guys. We have such PTSD from them. We really don’t want to believe that they are bad because we feel like we are setting ourselves up to be hurt.
 

Objectively, look at this roster and tell me how many games that they win? Keep in mind that they play the toughest schedule in football. 2020 Pats If you changed the logo from the Patriots to the Lions, people would be arguing that team would have a shot at Trevor Lawrence. BB’s genius probably prevents that from happening. They are about a 6 win team.