Mike Clay 2020 team projections: Bills

[Bangarang]

Mike Clay just made the list 

[John from Riverside]

I respect his right to have an opinion

[Amaru523]

1 hour ago, aristocrat said:

 

nobody said our schedule was creampuff going into last year. it's the same thing every year. 

 

I agree, we had a creampuff schedule last year, but yet everyone was predicting us to be worse than we were the year before, despite all the improvements made to the roster.

[CBD]

3 hours ago, Gary Busey said:

 

If you add up all the points scored per his player projections it equals 265. That's less than 17 points per game he predicts we will score on offense. 

 

Someone check my math

Point projections is 328

[Orlando Buffalo]

3 hours ago, aristocrat said:

 

he's got tre as the 45th best cb in the league there? is that right?  mother of god

If he has Tre that low he definitely weights "usage" to highly. Since smart QBs do not throw his way he does not have opportunities to be better by his stats. All stats have limitations but that seems ridiculous.

[Warren Zevon]

4 minutes ago, CBD said:

Point projections is 328

 

Right - that would include defensive/ST scores. That 265 doesn't include Allen's rushing TDs which brings the number to 301. 

[BigBillsFan]

One thing he hasn't factored in is a more consistent running game production for TDs. I think with the changes of Singletary/Yeldon/rookie we'll get more consistent production as far as scoring; so even if you take out less TDs from Josh running you have to add TDs for RBs.

 

Considering he's going to have Josh throw 3500+ yards the offensive production has to be up with a better RB line-up, even if it's marginal. Right now he has scoring flat which makes ZERO sense. If he can't factor in 10% increase to offense he really thinks Allen is going to suck, which I don't. 10% increase is more than reasonable to scoring, it might be 15-20% with the improvement to Allen, Diggs, and more explosive running.

[auburnbillsbacker]

3 hours ago, Binghamton Beast said:

 

I'm we have your analysis. Tell me, will teams suffer injuries that will set them back? Will there be disappointing performances from teams? Will any teams catch the public by surprise and be good?

 

Again, strength of schedule can NOT be determined until after a season has been played.

Yet the Patriots were good every season with Brady.  Yes, not all teams meet their expectations.  Do you really think that last year's schedule wont be easier then next season's though.  The would take more variance than I can imagine.

[formerlyofCtown]

4 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

I actually think the schedule is only tougher when it comes to travel. If you look at it from a QB  standpoint they play 3 of the top QBs all at home  - mahomes, Russ, Big Ben. Doesn’t mean they win those games but it’s a good balance for them. Who is the next best QB on the schedule... 

goff? Tannehill? jimmy G?

 

I personally think they played tougher QBs last year in terms of number. Brady 2x, Dak, Wentz, Lamar

I think the most important thing for our Bills is the offense.  I don't believe there is a single QB in this league that poses a problem for us.

[Chandler#81]

5 hours ago, BigBuff423 said:

I don't agree at all with his take on this, but I suspect he's buying into the flawed logic that the schedule is going to dictate Allen's regression / overall team productivity. The schedule is rarely a contributing factor because there are always teams that do much better than anticipated (the Bills last year being one) and teams that do worse or not quite as well. Nobody knows what teams will absolutely be lights-out and which ones will be cupcake until the games are actually played. Furthermore, while I wouldn't expect any person to know who the Bills Draft, his roster is missing Drafted players, which as we know from McBeane's time in Buffalo has so far been crucial to their success. 

 

For example, it's hard for me to believe the Bills enter the 2020 NFL season with the current list of RBs they have, or that they don't add a good CB or depth at O-line or even a mid-round WR that can contribute to their Offense / STs. Those incremental additions make large contributions over the course of the season. That's to say nothing about the aforementioned improved Offense with Diggs ALONE. I don't think Allen's progression is automatic, but from what I've read he definitely knows *this* is the season that will have far more to do with his long-term success than what he's done thus far. The 3rd year is usually when the light goes on and stays on and who the QB is, becomes solidified. It is rare they drastically improve beyond the 3rd year starting, but some of the greatest QBs / players, have shown that the 3rd year is when it all clicks and they don't look back. I can be called a homer, that's fine, but I believe this to be true for Josh as well. Continuity on the O-line, improved skill position players, and same Offense for 3rd year. Sign. Me. Up.

 

Go Bills!

I agree with your take -with this caveat; Josh is a different animal as a national QB. His path to the pros typically spells doom for everyone else and a complete lack of quality coaching showed up Day 1, other-worldly talent notwithstanding.

i certainly expect him to be better this year than last, but his peak is likely a couple/ few years away. 

[Kwai San]

Tougher sched. 

Won't know how Allen will do this year

I see at most 2 Negatives.

 

Still have an awesome D.

Just got a fair to middling WR.....(pls note sarcasm voice here)

WR package as a whole will cause mismatches

Motor is now the feature RB and WILL have backup

O-Line has experience and should improve

I see at least 5 Positives.

 

As another poster said a few weeks ago.  McD needs to develop the Billicheat mentality that EVERY game is a BIG game and they ALL need to be won.  They do this, I will comfortably foresee 11 wins.  Wins the division, maybe gives a bye (BIG maybe) should lead to a decent season.  Yeah yeah yeah SB or bust.  They need to improve b4 visions of a SB is dancing in their eyes.  Coaching and QB improvements....nail that down?  SB appearance it should be.

 

Go Bills

 

[Dopey]

2 hours ago, DCOrange said:

5 hours ago, aristocrat said:

 

he's got tre as the 45th best cb in the league there? is that right?  mother of god

No, that's for fantasy football.

 

This.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Projections projections projections.  Mine, unfortunately, is there will be no season (or one to speak of).  Go to camp, perhaps play a few exhibitions, one player gets the virus and it will be the NHL and NBA all over again.  Until there's an effective vaccine widely available, which won't be for a year or more, I wouldn't bet on a season, fans in the stands or not.  Of course I may be wrong if they can figure out how to play games where players never get within six feet of each other.  It's called virtual blocking and tackling.   

[letsgoteam]

I have seen people go back and forth if the schedule is harder, easier, ect. I think the best thing to keep in mind is no matter how hard/easy a schedule  a huge factor is when you play  a team and not necessarily who. Teams and players get hot/cold, players get hurt or are limited in some way,  new players come in to picture (for example if the Titans and Pitt game were switched on the schedule, then you would imagine that the Titans game would be more difficult with R.T at QB, then again the Bills were playing some really good football at that time too)

 

Also I think the Eagles game could have been a different outcome if the Bills played them on a different week. (To me the weather played a huge factor with the wind, and looked the Bills gameplan was to throw the football which proved to be quite difficult)

Edited April 9, 2020 by letsgoteam

[below]

6 hours ago, Binghamton Beast said:

 

You don't know how tough a schedule is until after the season is played.

 

Why don't people understand this simple concept?

LOL how could the schedule possibly be as easy as last year?

 

Look no further than the draft order this year. We played FOUR of the five worst teams including the Fins twice.

 

And we were extremely fortunate to play Mariota (and Eli) before he got benched.

Edited April 9, 2020 by below

[Beast]

8 minutes ago, below said:

LOL how could the schedule possibly be as easy as last year?

 

Look no further than the draft order this year. We played FOUR of the five worst teams including the Fins twice.

 

And we were extremely fortunate to play Mariota (and Eli) before he got benched.

Reading comprehension is not your strong suit is it, rookie?

 

Where did I say we had an easier schedule?

 

I said, and I’ll say it sloooooooowly for your benefit, strength of schedule can not be determined until the schedule has been played.

 

Capiche?

[billsfan89]

2 hours ago, Kwai San said:

Tougher sched. 

Won't know how Allen will do this year

I see at most 2 Negatives.

 

Still have an awesome D.

Just got a fair to middling WR.....(pls note sarcasm voice here)

WR package as a whole will cause mismatches

Motor is now the feature RB and WILL have backup

O-Line has experience and should improve

I see at least 5 Positives.

 

As another poster said a few weeks ago.  McD needs to develop the Billicheat mentality that EVERY game is a BIG game and they ALL need to be won.  They do this, I will comfortably foresee 11 wins.  Wins the division, maybe gives a bye (BIG maybe) should lead to a decent season.  Yeah yeah yeah SB or bust.  They need to improve b4 visions of a SB is dancing in their eyes.  Coaching and QB improvements....nail that down?  SB appearance it should be.

 

Go Bills

 

 

You don't know how tough the schedule really is until the season starts to shake out. The NFL is far more volatile than any other league year to year. Injuries, regression teams falling flat happen to a lot of teams you would expect to be tough, whereas weak teams get lucky and develop better than they are projected to. I only look at the divisional opponents as the real test of the schedule and even that isn't super reliable. 

 

So I don't really put much stock into how difficult a schedule really is. However I do think that the team will win 11 games if I had to project pre-draft. Looking into the division I am not too impressed. The Pats* have a tough defense and ST unit but their QB situation is a bit rocky, I think they are a mid-level team. The Fins are improving from scrappy underdog but unless they have a QB (and unless they trade for Joe B I don't see that changing) I see their ceiling at 7 wins. The Jets are a bit tricky, they made modest improvements to the O-line but they still lack a lot of talent around a good QB. Unless the Jets nail their draft I don't see them having the talent level around their QB to get above 8 wins. 

 

So the division looks soft, Diggs is a big addition, the team keeps a strong defense and is young or in its prime at most positions. McD is a good coach and Allen is in his third year and should improve a bit I hope. I think they can go 4-2 in the division and then 7-3 against the rest of their schedule. Overall I think that this team is primed to win the division and a divisional win along with a playoff win is the bare minimum this team must achieve.

Edited April 9, 2020 by billsfan89

[Augie]

7 hours ago, Binghamton Beast said:

 

I'm we have your analysis. Tell me, will teams suffer injuries that will set them back? Will there be disappointing performances from teams? Will any teams catch the public by surprise and be good?

 

Again, strength of schedule can NOT be determined until after a season has been played.

 

True. I mean, I’d rather play the Bengals and the Redskins than the Ravens and the Chiefs, and I know that now. BUT, every year teams surprise for better or worse. I don’t put TOO much faith in it. Not crazy about the west coast trips, but you play who and where they line you up. JUST WIN! 

[CBD]

7 hours ago, Binghamton Beast said:

 

I'm we have your analysis. Tell me, will teams suffer injuries that will set them back? Will there be disappointing performances from teams? Will any teams catch the public by surprise and be good?

 

Again, strength of schedule can NOT be determined until after a season has been played.

Ultimately nothing can be determined until after the season is played. It's a projection. 

[Beast]

2 minutes ago, CBD said:

Ultimately nothing can be determined until after the season is played. It's a projection. 

 

Right. But people take the strength of schedule in April like it actually means something. That is looking at 13 different teams and attempting to project how good they will be. It's hard enough to project 1 team much less 13.