Matt Waldman Detailed Reports on Draft RBs in Rockpile Podcast

[stinky finger]

10 hours ago, DCOrange said:

If Beane wants him, there's pretty much a 100% chance he'll be available to us. It would be shocking to see him taken before our 3rd round pick, much less our 2nd.

 

I wouldn't be shocked if he went before we picked in the 3rd round.

 

I love the kid. I'd have zero issue making him the 54 selection. 

 

We would do well to ride this horse.

[DCOrange]

49 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Is he any good (i.e., worth $20)? 

 

I stopped reading 'draft guru's' after Joel Buchsbaum died, as none seemed to get the 'essence' and intangibles of the player the way he did...

I don’t buy his draft guide but he’s a good Twitter follow at least. I assume his draft guide is good too. 

[stinky finger]

11 hours ago, DJB said:

 

I could easily  see a team fall in love with his combine measurables and believe he's the next D Henry. Could go in the 2-3 range for sure. 

 

This

 

I think he goes before we pick in the 3rd.

[DJB]

15 minutes ago, inaugural balls said:

 

This

 

I think he goes before we pick in the 3rd.

 

I agree 100%. If we want him we will have to take him at 54. 

[billsfan_34]

14 hours ago, BigBuff423 said:

Akers and Vaughn are two of the RBs I really like in the 3rd, but I don't see Akers lasting that long except for maybe the WRs draw enough juice from the league to ignore the position a bit. Dillon is a good back and no doubt he will be a good one, but I think he'll sneak into a team few people saw coming and a bit earlier than expected. Akers / Vaughn IMHO are at the right value in the 3rd who can be a phenomenal complement to Motor and vice versa. To me, because of Motor already firmly on the team and in an established role, any RB that runs slower than a 4.5ish range should not be in consideration. 

 

Motor does so well with shiftiness and slugging out a couple extra yards and squirting through defenders, but to add some lightning to that mix - I would hope the Bills would have a guy who runs through people but with a little bit more top end speed to make that 7 yard carry a 30 yard carry (or longer, lol). IMO, Akers and Vaughn are those two guys - on the nose. 

Then Jonathan Taylor is your man

[BigBuff423]

3 minutes ago, billsfan_34 said:

Then Jonathan Taylor is your man

 
Oh yeah man, I know!!! To me, he’ll never make it to 54, let alone the 3rd Round where I suspect the Bills are truly targeting a RB. I love Taylor as an NFL RB, even more than as a college RB. 

[Thurman#1]

15 hours ago, SCBills said:

Yup... we need a speed back.  Singletary is a beast, but we lack that breakaway guy.  With Allen, I’m really not too worried about 3rd/4th and short. 

 

 

So, no discussion on Waldman's info, which was fantastic? Jeez. Ok.

 

In any case, no, we don't need a speed back. That's one of several directions we could go, though. Beane indicated that the reason they used Gore more than Yeldon was that he was a pounder, a hammer, in the last interview.

 

Based on that, seems very possible that if they grab someone, there's a good chance it will be a physical smashmouth guy, ala Dillon or Benjamin.

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, Lurker said:

"Who is this Matt Waldman guy?"

 

So, I go to his 'about' page and I get nothing that tells me who he is.    What makes this guy any better than a TSW poster?    Anybody know?...

 

 

He's an extremely thoughtful and well-connected guy. Puts out videos breaking down individual players virtually daily and all you have to do is watch to know that he knows what he is talking about. He's been a guest on Murph's show a bunch of times. As he says below, he's written for the New York Times, Football Outsiders and he makes his living these days mostly by selling his excellent draft guide the RSP (Rookie Scouting Portfolio).

 

 

 

Look at this, and scroll down for a ton of videos:

 

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxk6t1o84XOM67FL7YoxC1Q

 

 

4 hours ago, BigBuff423 said:

 
Oh yeah man, I know!!! To me, he’ll never make it to 54, let alone the 3rd Round where I suspect the Bills are truly targeting a RB. I love Taylor as an NFL RB, even more than as a college RB. 

 

 

 

If Waldman is right and Taylor is an excellent pure runner but a matador as far as a pass blocker, he does not sound anything like a McDermott/Beane guy.

[BigBuff423]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

He's an extremely thoughtful and well-connected guy. Puts out videos breaking down individual players virtually daily and all you have to do is watch to know that he knows what he is talking about. He's been a guest on Murph's show a bunch of times. As he says below, he's written for the New York Times, Football Outsiders and he makes his living these days mostly by selling his excellent draft guide the RSP (Rookie Scouting Portfolio).

 

 

 

Look at this, and scroll down for a ton of videos:

 

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxk6t1o84XOM67FL7YoxC1Q

 

 

 

 

 

If Waldman is right and Taylor is an excellent pure runner but a matador as far as a pass blocker, he does not sound anything like a McDermott/Beane guy.

I don’t claim to be an expert, and everyone is obviously entitled to their opinion, but there are plenty of times “experts” have been wrong and IMHO, this one of them. I’m not saying he’ll be a fantastic pass blocker from the start or that any team will require him to be one often, but IMO a RB like Taylor’s upside & potential as a RB is too tremendous to ignore or discount for pass blocking reasons. 
 

All of that said, as noted earlier I’d be very happy with Akers or Vaughn because of what they’d add or complement to the RB game.

[billsfan_34]

18 hours ago, BigBuff423 said:

 
Oh yeah man, I know!!! To me, he’ll never make it to 54, let alone the 3rd Round where I suspect the Bills are truly targeting a RB. I love Taylor as an NFL RB, even more than as a college RB. 

You are right- and don’t be surprised if he goes early in the 2nd. Running backs are slowly becoming more important again, especially rookie RB’s on cap friendly rookie contracts.

[Lurker]

On 4/9/2020 at 6:23 AM, Thurman#1 said:

https://rockpilereport.podbean.com/e/rockpile-report-199-2020-draft-series-running-backs-wmatt-waldman-of-the-rsp-filmroom/

 

Just gave it a listen.  Waldman sounds interesting and I'll give his work a lookie loo.

 

OTOH, the host of that podcast was like fingernails on a chalkboard.    I never want to listen to that site again...

[Mr. K]

On 4/9/2020 at 4:57 PM, PIZ said:

Zack Moss......Travis Henry? I loved Travis Henry on the Bills. Guy was like a bowling ball. This is an excellent post. Thanks Thurman#1. Best post that I’ve read in a while. 

 

Travis Henry was one of my favorite Bills (minus the fumbles and questionable character). I usually wear the blue clown puke Henry jersey if I go to any away preseason games.  Can you locate a Travis Henry highlight pack. Seems like people dont want you to see him play football...

 

 

[PIZ]

1 hour ago, Mr. K said:

 

Travis Henry was one of my favorite Bills (minus the fumbles and questionable character). I usually wear the blue clown puke Henry jersey if I go to any away preseason games.  Can you locate a Travis Henry highlight pack. Seems like people dont want you to see him play football...

 

 

 

Uh.......Wow! You are right! There are not any videos of Travis Henry. I only found 1. Weird. 
 

 

[Mr. K]

12 hours ago, PIZ said:

 

Uh.......Wow! You are right! There are not any videos of Travis Henry. I only found 1. Weird. 
 

 

Eat that Zach Thomas! Yeah, the no Travis Henry highlights is a bummer. Come on Bills, I know somebody in the A/V department can get something together with all this time they got on their hands. Or maybe just fix the press room so you can hear questions being asked...

[PIZ]

Know anything about TCU RB Sewo Olonilua?

 

6’3” - 232lbs. 

 

 

[Buffalo Junction]

On 4/9/2020 at 8:20 AM, DCOrange said:

If Beane wants him, there's pretty much a 100% chance he'll be available to us. It would be shocking to see him taken before our 3rd round pick, much less our 2nd.

People keep comparing Dillon to Henry (2nd round), and assuming that he’ll be picked earlier because of that. IMO, it’s much more likely that he’s being valued similarly to Brandon Jacobs (4th round) by front offices. Zack Moss is more ready to contribute immediately on all three downs. 

[Buffalo Junction]

6 hours ago, PIZ said:

Know anything about TCU RB Sewo Olonilua?

 

6’3” - 232lbs. 

 

 

Rather patient for a power back. Good vision. Can hit cutbacks. I like his foot movement and subtle elusiveness. Isn’t going to outrun a defense. Solid choice for a hammer in a committee.  

Edited April 13, 2020 by Buffalo Junction

[FireChans]

On 4/9/2020 at 6:23 AM, Thurman#1 said:

https://rockpilereport.podbean.com/e/rockpile-report-199-2020-draft-series-running-backs-wmatt-waldman-of-the-rsp-filmroom/

 

 

It's a long podcast. The RB stuff with Waldman starts at about 1:07:00. It's a two-hour thing, and I wish I had skipped right to there, myself. But Waldman's always a good listen and has a ton of info.

 

On A.J. Dillon, "There are a lot of people I think who are sleeping on A.J. Dillon out of B.C., who I wonder if people think he's an Andre Williams clone. And if there's anyone who he's a clone of it would be Derrick Henry. I mean, I think this is a guy who can be a very good running back. He's nimble for a big man. Got the vision ... And he leaped 41 inches at the combine which is a very explosive mark, so you're talking about a quick-twitch athlete who, from a vision standpoint  understands how to set up his blockers, and the thing that I love about him is that he carried the ball 866 times in his career. There are a lot of people that you hear this and they say, "Well, there's not enough tread still on the tire, I'm worried about the odometer breaking down." Man, I discussed this ten years ago with a little-known back by the name of Bobby Raney, who used to play for the Buccaneers and Giants and Ravens because he had a high workload and people were worried about that in a small back.

 

"And I was trying to explain to people that if you look at people, the histories of RBs  in the college game? If they have a high workload, there's a high correlation to them being able to deliver with a high workload in the pros, if they have the talent to get on the field. You know, guys like Steven Jackson and Michael Turner, Cedric Benson, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, these are all guys who led the NCAA one year in carries. They didn't break down. There's a lot of guys ... as long as they didn't have consistent chronic health issues and there's nothing in their medical report to be concerned about, the only guy I saw on an extensive list that had a chronic health issue, which was a knee, which was Jay Ajayi. And everyone knew that he had a ticking time bomb in the knee. Otherwise, most of these backs that they get into a starting role and they've had that high workload, they generally prove that they can continue to get a high workload and produce for you so A.J. Dillon's the guy that I just don't get why he's not getting more conversation."

 

 

Waldman's #1 is JK Dobbins, "by a fairly good margin." Asked about Jonathan Taylor he says that as a pure runner, Taylor is probably the best pure runner in the class, but in terms of pass receiving, blocking and ball security, other guys give you more upside. Swift catches the ball well. "But his biggest issue, as good as he is as a runner, it's as bad as he is as a pass protector." He brought up the Seinfeld where Jerry is dating a masseuse who never wants to give him a massage because she's off work. "Jonathan Taylor is like this stud running back but when you ask him to apply his skills at home in the pocket, forget it, he's done for the day. You see that. He's almost an artful dodger when it comes to his effort in pass protection." Waldman still has him at #2, and thinks maybe he could be good if he tried, but you have to project. Doesn't sound like a Beane guy, though.

 

He also said that last year's RB class wasn't as strong as 2016, 2017 or this one coming up. He was asked, "Do you look at [the 2020 RB draft class], do you look at them and think there's more top end talent than what came in last season?" The question specifically mentioned Miles Sanders, who was the 2nd RB picked last year and went at #53.

 

Waldman's reply was this, "This year I think there are a dozen guys that I think, just from the standpoint - obviously potential is always different from the reality of the situation - but there's twelve guys in this class who have what I would call a grade that would put them in a starting role ... they could play in a starting role, maybe in a rotation in a committee, but there are literally eleven guys who are graded higher than where I graded Miles Sanders last year.

 

"Now, Sanders is in a tier ... to me the grade isn't as big a difference as the tier. So, let's look, ummmmmm, there's probably about six guys in the second tier last year, that Miles Sanders was in. And then in this particular class, there are also six guys in here but the class goes deeper, because there's also a bigger first tier. So this is a richer class, there's probably five ... I would say there's four guys who can be immediate starters depending on where they land, and then there's another eight guys I think that half of those eight guys that I'm thinking about in tier two will probably get a significant committee contribution and will look like ... I'll say Devin Singletary was a significant committee contributor, I would say for the offense in terms of production. And then I would say there's another four who probably won't be immediate committee contributors but when they see the field, you'll see the flashes of talent. And then you look at the rest and there's probably another twelve guys in this class who could give you contributions and maybe three to four of them could emerge into lead committee contributors at some point. So this is a rich group that ... we may see some guys out of this class who may give you top twelve, top fifteen production right off of the bat."

 

 

 

 

Around 1:41 ... And for the Bills he likes Cam Akers in the 3rd or 4th, likes him a lot. Likes Eno Benjamin and Antonio Gibson ("around 98 proof of LeSean McCoy") for the Bills also. And just after that ...

 

Interviewer Drew Gier: "There's people who exist out there, probably listening right now yelling at their radios, talking about, "We need the top tier running back." It sounds like there's some depth there to be had that if there's a running back by committee ... that's the way you should probably handle running back in the new NFL now. Is that correct?"

 

Matt Waldman: "I mean, I certainly think there's a reason for that, and I'll just say real quickly that the fan inside of me would love for you guys to take Jonathan Taylor first overall and roll with that, but I think the more mature perspective again is, obviously you're not going to be able to do that. But also there are players that you can get that can work with Devin Singletary in a committee and who would be very effective."

 

Then of Zack Moss, "very close to my first tier," has him #5, and breaks him down. Pointed out that at Utah they left him alone against defensive ends and that is so rugged that he wins. Can grow into a real blocker, screen guy, etc. Mentioned Travis Henry as a guy with some similarities.

 

Interesting stuff, IMO.

 

 

 

This dude is an idiot. Michael Turner handled 5 years total as a starting back in the NFL. Steven Jackson was about 6. Ray Rice started to suck when he was banished at the age of 26. Benson had like 3-4 decent years. 

[CEN-CAL17]

On 4/9/2020 at 6:16 AM, Gambit said:

I need Beane to work his magic so AJ Dillon falls to us. He is going to be a monster in this league. 

See I think the opposite. I don’t think Dillion get draft til like round 5, late 4th at best. I think the game will be to fast for him, he won’t break tackles like in college and his ability to make NFL caliber players miss is not there.

 

We will see in 2-3 years.... I just don’t see value there.

[NewEra]

On 4/9/2020 at 7:11 PM, billsfan_34 said:

Then Jonathan Taylor is your man

And picking at 54, you're sool