Matt Waldman Detailed Reports on Draft RBs in Rockpile Podcast

[Thurman#1]

https://rockpilereport.podbean.com/e/rockpile-report-199-2020-draft-series-running-backs-wmatt-waldman-of-the-rsp-filmroom/

 

 

It's a long podcast. The RB stuff with Waldman starts at about 1:07:00. It's a two-hour thing, and I wish I had skipped right to there, myself. But Waldman's always a good listen and has a ton of info.

 

On A.J. Dillon, "There are a lot of people I think who are sleeping on A.J. Dillon out of B.C., who I wonder if people think he's an Andre Williams clone. And if there's anyone who he's a clone of it would be Derrick Henry. I mean, I think this is a guy who can be a very good running back. He's nimble for a big man. Got the vision ... And he leaped 41 inches at the combine which is a very explosive mark, so you're talking about a quick-twitch athlete who, from a vision standpoint  understands how to set up his blockers, and the thing that I love about him is that he carried the ball 866 times in his career. There are a lot of people that you hear this and they say, "Well, there's not enough tread still on the tire, I'm worried about the odometer breaking down." Man, I discussed this ten years ago with a little-known back by the name of Bobby Raney, who used to play for the Buccaneers and Giants and Ravens because he had a high workload and people were worried about that in a small back.

 

"And I was trying to explain to people that if you look at people, the histories of RBs  in the college game? If they have a high workload, there's a high correlation to them being able to deliver with a high workload in the pros, if they have the talent to get on the field. You know, guys like Steven Jackson and Michael Turner, Cedric Benson, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, these are all guys who led the NCAA one year in carries. They didn't break down. There's a lot of guys ... as long as they didn't have consistent chronic health issues and there's nothing in their medical report to be concerned about, the only guy I saw on an extensive list that had a chronic health issue, which was a knee, which was Jay Ajayi. And everyone knew that he had a ticking time bomb in the knee. Otherwise, most of these backs that they get into a starting role and they've had that high workload, they generally prove that they can continue to get a high workload and produce for you so A.J. Dillon's the guy that I just don't get why he's not getting more conversation."

 

 

Waldman's #1 is JK Dobbins, "by a fairly good margin." Asked about Jonathan Taylor he says that as a pure runner, Taylor is probably the best pure runner in the class, but in terms of pass receiving, blocking and ball security, other guys give you more upside. Swift catches the ball well. "But his biggest issue, as good as he is as a runner, it's as bad as he is as a pass protector." He brought up the Seinfeld where Jerry is dating a masseuse who never wants to give him a massage because she's off work. "Jonathan Taylor is like this stud running back but when you ask him to apply his skills at home in the pocket, forget it, he's done for the day. You see that. He's almost an artful dodger when it comes to his effort in pass protection." Waldman still has him at #2, and thinks maybe he could be good if he tried, but you have to project. Doesn't sound like a Beane guy, though.

 

He also said that last year's RB class wasn't as strong as 2016, 2017 or this one coming up. He was asked, "Do you look at [the 2020 RB draft class], do you look at them and think there's more top end talent than what came in last season?" The question specifically mentioned Miles Sanders, who was the 2nd RB picked last year and went at #53.

 

Waldman's reply was this, "This year I think there are a dozen guys that I think, just from the standpoint - obviously potential is always different from the reality of the situation - but there's twelve guys in this class who have what I would call a grade that would put them in a starting role ... they could play in a starting role, maybe in a rotation in a committee, but there are literally eleven guys who are graded higher than where I graded Miles Sanders last year.

 

"Now, Sanders is in a tier ... to me the grade isn't as big a difference as the tier. So, let's look, ummmmmm, there's probably about six guys in the second tier last year, that Miles Sanders was in. And then in this particular class, there are also six guys in here but the class goes deeper, because there's also a bigger first tier. So this is a richer class, there's probably five ... I would say there's four guys who can be immediate starters depending on where they land, and then there's another eight guys I think that half of those eight guys that I'm thinking about in tier two will probably get a significant committee contribution and will look like ... I'll say Devin Singletary was a significant committee contributor, I would say for the offense in terms of production. And then I would say there's another four who probably won't be immediate committee contributors but when they see the field, you'll see the flashes of talent. And then you look at the rest and there's probably another twelve guys in this class who could give you contributions and maybe three to four of them could emerge into lead committee contributors at some point. So this is a rich group that ... we may see some guys out of this class who may give you top twelve, top fifteen production right off of the bat."

 

 

 

 

Around 1:41 ... And for the Bills he likes Cam Akers in the 3rd or 4th, likes him a lot. Likes Eno Benjamin and Antonio Gibson ("around 98 proof of LeSean McCoy") for the Bills also. And just after that ...

 

Interviewer Drew Gier: "There's people who exist out there, probably listening right now yelling at their radios, talking about, "We need the top tier running back." It sounds like there's some depth there to be had that if there's a running back by committee ... that's the way you should probably handle running back in the new NFL now. Is that correct?"

 

Matt Waldman: "I mean, I certainly think there's a reason for that, and I'll just say real quickly that the fan inside of me would love for you guys to take Jonathan Taylor first overall and roll with that, but I think the more mature perspective again is, obviously you're not going to be able to do that. But also there are players that you can get that can work with Devin Singletary in a committee and who would be very effective."

 

Then of Zack Moss, "very close to my first tier," has him #5, and breaks him down. Pointed out that at Utah they left him alone against defensive ends and that is so rugged that he wins. Can grow into a real blocker, screen guy, etc. Mentioned Travis Henry as a guy with some similarities.

 

Interesting stuff, IMO.

 

 

 

Edited April 9, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Gambit]

I need Beane to work his magic so AJ Dillon falls to us. He is going to be a monster in this league. 

[CapeBreton]

23 minutes ago, Gambit said:

I need Beane to work his magic so AJ Dillon falls to us. He is going to be a monster in this league. 

I’d prefer taking Dillon in the third as opposed to one of the top five RBs falling to us in the second - Dobbins, Taylor, Swift, CEH, Akers. 
 

I agree that Dillon isn’t getting the hype he deserves. I like the tape, solid lateral movement for a guy his size, combine numbers were fantastic, he looked good catching the ball at the combine, and just his size is impressive. His vertical number of 41” is also insane, that’s usually a good sign of an explosive running back. 

[BigBuff423]

Akers and Vaughn are two of the RBs I really like in the 3rd, but I don't see Akers lasting that long except for maybe the WRs draw enough juice from the league to ignore the position a bit. Dillon is a good back and no doubt he will be a good one, but I think he'll sneak into a team few people saw coming and a bit earlier than expected. Akers / Vaughn IMHO are at the right value in the 3rd who can be a phenomenal complement to Motor and vice versa. To me, because of Motor already firmly on the team and in an established role, any RB that runs slower than a 4.5ish range should not be in consideration. 

 

Motor does so well with shiftiness and slugging out a couple extra yards and squirting through defenders, but to add some lightning to that mix - I would hope the Bills would have a guy who runs through people but with a little bit more top end speed to make that 7 yard carry a 30 yard carry (or longer, lol). IMO, Akers and Vaughn are those two guys - on the nose. 

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, Gambit said:

I need Beane to work his magic so AJ Dillon falls to us. He is going to be a monster in this league. 

If Beane wants him, there's pretty much a 100% chance he'll be available to us. It would be shocking to see him taken before our 3rd round pick, much less our 2nd.

[DJB]

40 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

If Beane wants him, there's pretty much a 100% chance he'll be available to us. It would be shocking to see him taken before our 3rd round pick, much less our 2nd.

 

I could easily  see a team fall in love with his combine measurables and believe he's the next D Henry. Could go in the 2-3 range for sure. 

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

If Beane wants him, there's pretty much a 100% chance he'll be available to us. It would be shocking to see him taken before our 3rd round pick, much less our 2nd.

Agree.  
 

How do you see Moss vs Dillon?   I wasn’t initially super excited by either, but I’ve watched several games of each and can see some value to both (but definitely not before 3rd round).  I think I see Moss as a better option than Dillon even though Dillon’s combine testing was really something for his size and Moss’ left a bit to be desired.

[DCOrange]

40 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Agree.  
 

How do you see Moss vs Dillon?   I wasn’t initially super excited by either, but I’ve watched several games of each and can see some value to both (but definitely not before 3rd round).  I think I see Moss as a better option than Dillon even though Dillon’s combine testing was really something for his size and Moss’ left a bit to be desired.

I personally hate Dillon. He's pretty much the opposite of what I want in a running back.

 

I like Moss though and I think he's versatile enough to get me excited and enough of a power back to get Beane excited about using him as a complement to Singletary.

[Jay free]

You guys have it all wrong.....the bills need a good change of pace, speed, and vertical moving back, ala Jonathan taylor, anthony McFarland, swift, Gibson........they have to be able to hit the edges and break the big one......focus!

 

[SCBills]

Yup... we need a speed back.  Singletary is a beast, but we lack that breakaway guy.  With Allen, I’m really not too worried about 3rd/4th and short. 

[OldTimer1960]

55 minutes ago, Jay free said:

You guys have it all wrong.....the bills need a good change of pace, speed, and vertical moving back, ala Jonathan taylor, anthony McFarland, swift, Gibson........they have to be able to hit the edges and break the big one......focus!

 

I just think that they need another *good* back.  If they can help in the passing game, so much the better, but I am not married to "big power back" or "speedster" - just someone who can gain yards consistently and share the load with Singletary.

 

For example, if Edwards-Helaire is available, I wouldn't rule him out as an option just because he is similar in size/speed to Singletary.  

 

I see WR similarly - I don't think that there is a glaring hole in the offense because they don't have a 6'4" WR.  If a guy can make catches and gain yards - he is qualified in my opinion.

Edited April 9, 2020 by OldTimer1960

[Mojo44]

1 hour ago, Jay free said:

You guys have it all wrong.....the bills need a good change of pace, speed, and vertical moving back, ala Jonathan taylor, anthony McFarland, swift, Gibson........they have to be able to hit the edges and break the big one......focus!

 

I am laser focused! I would love to see Dillon on this team. His presence could make the entire offense better. Think about it. He’s in the game and the defense either has  to stack the box and open up our receivers or back away and let him run for big chunks. 

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Dobbin or Dillon; move up if you have to.

[Lurker]

"Who is this Matt Waldman guy?"

 

So, I go to his 'about' page and I get nothing that tells me who he is.    What makes this guy any better than a TSW poster?    Anybody know?...

[TC in St. Louis]

I watched a video of this kid from Appalachian State.  Holy moly.  

8. DARRYNTON EVANS | Appalachian St. 5103 | 203 lbs. | rJR. Oak Hill, Fla. (New Smyrna Beach) 7/9/1998 (age 21.79) #3 BACKGROUND: Darrynton (DARE-un-ton) Evans grew up in the small town of Oak Hill and attended New Smyrna Beach High School, which is located on the Atlantic coast just outside of Orlando. He earned his first varsity start as a safety on defense, replacing an injured Cole Holcomb (2019 fifth-round pick). Evans emerged as an offensive weapon as a junior, rushing for nearly 700 yards and 16 touchdowns before a broken thumb sidelined him for the rest of the season. An ankle injury plagued him as a senior, finishing with 940 rushing yards and nine touchdowns in just seven games in 2015. Evans also excelled in track, setting personal-bests as a senior in the 100 meters (10.74) and long jump (21’8.5”).

A two-star safety recruit out of high school, Evans ranked as the No. 282 safety in the country and the No. 525 recruit in the state of Florida. His injury-plagued junior and senior years was reflected in his recruiting as he didn’t receive an offer from a Power 5 program. Evans committed to Appalachian State (as a running back and slot receiver) over USF and several MAC schools. His father, Darryl, played college baseball at Bethune-Cookman. Evans elected to skip his senior season and enter the 2020 NFL Draft. YEAR (GP/GS) CAR YDS AVG TD REC YDS AVG TD NOTES

2016: (12/0) 48 217 2017: Redshirted due to injury 4.5 0 6 34 5.7 0 87 7.3 1 198 9.4 5 319 8.2 6 KR TD First team All-Sun Belt; Took over as the starter after Jalin Moore’s injury; KR TD Sun Belt Offensive POY; First team All-Sun Belt (RB); Second team All-Sun Belt (KR); KR TD 2018: (13/8) 179 2019: (14/14) 255 Total: (39/22) 482 1,187 6.6 1,480 5.8 2,884 6.0 7 12 18 21 25 39 HT WT ARM HAND WING 40-YD 20-YD 10-YD VJ BJ SS 3C BP

COMBINE 5103 203 31 5/8 09 1/4 76 5/8 4.41 2.60 1.58 37 10’05” - - 20 (no shuttle or 3cond – choice) PRO DAY N/A (Pro Day canceled) STRENGTHS: Quick out of the chute, hitting holes with speed...quick eyes to locate the crease or cutback lane...astute understanding of run angles and the geometry of the position...plays fast, but also mixes in patience to allow blocks to develop...stays balanced through traffic, absorbing and running through contact...also lined up at slot receiver in his career and catches the ball cleanly...averaged 25.7 yards per kick return with three touchdown returns (56/1,439/3)...touched the ball 467 times on offense the last two seasons with zero fumbles (fumbled once as a freshman). WEAKNESSES: Doesn’t boast an ideal body type or build for NFL work...below-average run strength and needs to attack with more physicality behind his pads...won’t be mistaken for a pounding runner...speeds toward space, but needs to better identify his key blocks...more of a straight-ahead runner and needs to be more creative in tight quarters...caught the ball when targeted, but didn’t have a high volume of targets in App State’s run-heavy scheme...his lack of lower body sand and core strength might limit his pass pro duties vs. NFL rushers...missed the 2017 season due to injury. SUMMARY: A two-year starter at Appalachian State, Evans was the featured runner in former head coach Eli Drinkwitz’s zone-heavy run scheme. Over his first two seasons, he returned kicks and bounced between running back and slot receiver on the depth chart before becoming the top running back midway through the 2018 season when Jalin Moore went down with an injury. Evans is a speedy, elusive runner who feels openings and makes quick decisions to force missed tackles. While competitive as a runner, he isn’t powerful and won’t be a high-volume yards-after-contact runner vs. NFL defenses. Overall, Evans might be limited by his lack of size and physicality, but he is a chug-to-daylight runner with excellent peripheral vision, projecting as a versatile complimentary back with kick return value.

 

If you subscribe to The Athletic, they have a breakdown of pretty much everybody in the draft plus a ton more.  

12. AJ DILLON | Boston College 6003 | 247 lbs. | JR. New London, Conn. (Lawrence) 5/2/1998 (age 21.98) #2 BACKGROUND: Algiers Jameal “AJ” Dillon, who was born in Baltimore and grew up with football as his focus in New London, started his prep career at Marine Science Magnet High School, where his mother, Jessyca Campbell, was the dean of students. He then enrolled and reclassified as a freshman at Lawrence Academy (Mass.), where he was coached by Paul Zukauskas, a seventh-round draft pick in 2001 who played five years in the NFL. After rushing for 1,368 yards as a sophomore, Dillon posted 1,887 rushing yards and 26 touchdowns (a 10.9 yards-per-carry average), leading the program to the 2015 League and Wayne Sanborn titles. He rushed for

635 yards and 12 total touchdowns the first four games as a senior before a broken leg (while playing linebacker) ended his 2016 season. A three-star running back recruit out of high school, Dillon was considered the No. 25-ranked running back (one spot behind Chuba Hubbard and Jonathan Taylor) and the top-ranked player from Massachusetts. He originally committed to Michigan as a junior, but was turned off by the Wolverines' continued pursuit of other backs (like five-star recruit Najee Harris). After his senior year, Dillon flipped to Boston College, which offered him the chance to stay closer to home. His grandfather Thom Gatewood is a College Football Hall of Fame wide receiver at Notre Dame, who was drafted in the fifth round (No. 107 overall) in the 1972 NFL Draft by the New York Giants. Dillon elected to skip his senior season and enter the 2020 NFL Draft. YEAR (GP/GS) CAR YDS AVG TD REC YDS AVG TD NOTES

2017: (13/4) 300 2018: (10/10) 227 2019: (12/12) 318 Total: (35/26) 845 1,589 5.3 14 1,108 4.9 10 1,685 5.3 14 4,382 5.2 38 0 0 8 41 13 195 21 236 0.0 0 5.1 1 15.0 1 11.2 2 ACC Rookie of the Year; First team All-ACC (first ACC freshman first team RB since 2002) First team All-ACC; Led team in rushing First team All-ACC; Led ACC in rushing

[23]

HT WT ARM HAND WING 40-YD 20-YD 10-YD VJ BJ SS 3C BP

COMBINE 6003 247 31 5/8 09 5/8 77 5/8 4.53 2.68 1.64 41 10’11” - 7.19 23 (no shuttle – choice) PRO DAY N/A (Pro Day canceled) STRENGTHS: Brawny physique with thick legs, knotted calves and strong trunk (and very little fat)...runs as physical as he looks with the core strength to fight through tackle attempts...good vision at the line of scrimmage to locate his blocks and clear the first wave...accelerates through the hole with better speed than expected for a back that size...stays square to the line of scrimmage...limited sample size as a pass catcher, but showed solid hands to be a serviceable screen target...tough-minded as a blocker, both in pass protection and as a lead blocker...durable and built to handle the load...elite production, leaving as Boston College’s all-time leading rusher. WEAKNESSES: Runs tall into contact with inconsistent pad level, allowing defenders to strike low and drive him backwards...bad habit of stopping his feet in the backfield...his cuts lack control, struggling to avoid his own blockers...slowed too easily by contact...takes a moment to get going after his momentum is stopped...sets up his first move, but doesn’t have the wiggle or vision to create at the second or third levels...physical enough to get the job done in pass pro when he can stay square, but quick blitzers will get around him...only 21 career catches in college...fumbled eight times over his career...missed two games as a sophomore with a left ankle sprain (October 2018); fractured the fibula in his right leg (October 2016), ending his senior year in high school. SUMMARY: A three-year starter at Boston College, Dillon was the lead back in former offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian’s pro-style scheme. He led the ACC in rushing as a junior and needed only 31 games to become the program’s all-time leading rusher in yards and touchdowns, finishing his career fourth in the ACC in rushing yards. Built like a brick house, Dillon has some freaky elements to his game with his combination of size, strength and straight-line speed, allowing him to run physical through contact. However, he has heavy feet in his redirect, struggling to string together moves and cleanly navigate through traffic. Overall, Dillon’s inconsistent pad level, creativity and third-down skills are concerns, but he is an athletic workhorse and chore to finish to the ground, projecting as a one-cut NFL power back.

GRADE: 4th-5th Round

[PIZ]

Zack Moss......Travis Henry? I loved Travis Henry on the Bills. Guy was like a bowling ball. This is an excellent post. Thanks Thurman#1. Best post that I’ve read in a while. 

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, Lurker said:

"Who is this Matt Waldman guy?"

 

So, I go to his 'about' page and I get nothing that tells me who he is.    What makes this guy any better than a TSW poster?    Anybody know?...

He's basically just a super well-known film guru guy. Publishes a huge NFL Draft document each year that people pay $20ish to download and access.

[CommonCents]

Six of Miles Sanders. Lol yah ok. Stops reading and goes back to the bottle of vodka. Toodles.

[njbuff]

The RB everyone is sleeping on is Darrynton Evans of App State.

 

Also, Mike Warren of Cincinnati could be a late round find.

[Lurker]

20 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

He's basically just a super well-known film guru guy. Publishes a huge NFL Draft document each year that people pay $20ish to download and access.

 

Is he any good (i.e., worth $20)? 

 

I stopped reading 'draft guru's' after Joel Buchsbaum died, as none seemed to get the 'essence' and intangibles of the player the way he did...