Why do we need a WR in the draft?

[MrSarcasm]

12 hours ago, Doc said:

Apparently we don't need talented WR's because they won't make any difference.

Yes, as the 4th Wideout they would make little difference this year and possibly next.

[Doc]

10 hours ago, BigBobby said:

People who look at averages and think they mean something are funny. I didn't check your math, but you even shared a 13% drop off from 1st half of year which is pretty significant to me. He had a "big" game against pitt with a whopping 99 yards. Other than that, here's his other 4 games to finish the year...26, 26, 36, 53. Yeah - that's garbage. He was a complete non factor.

 

Fast forward to playoffs, he sucked. And I mean, he REALLY SUCKED. John brown showing up and playing at least a half-focused game and we win that game by a lot. He came in lazy, he made rookie mistakes that rookies don't even make. Trash in the playoffs and 2nd half of the year. We can't count on him. 

 

Oh and the duke drop. I totally agree that duke should have caught that.  BUT, if he caught that pass, we would be talking about him like made the toughest catch ever. Other than knox, there wasn't ONE SINGLE PASS that looked like a tough catch. If the ball wasn't between the numbers, it was a drop-guaranteed.

 

That's funny because I think people who claim guys "did next to nothing" and then are shown that that's not true but still keep at it...are funny.  And sure, while he had a 13% drop, he still led all the Bills' receivers in yards and TDs in those 7 games.  What you're seeing as "doing nothing" is more of a factor of gameplan and/or Josh's preferences, and Josh had a problem hitting him on the long ball many times. 

 

As for the playoff game, it might not have been his best game, but you could say that about a lot of Bills players.  And the Bills added Diggs so he won't need to be counted on going forward.

 

1 hour ago, MrSarcasm said:

Yes, as the 4th Wideout they would make little difference this year and possibly next.

 

No, apparently even adding a #1 WR won't make a difference.

Edited April 7, 2020 by Doc

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, MrSarcasm said:

Yes, as the 4th Wideout they would make little difference this year and possibly next.

Jarvis Landry was the 12th WR taken in 2014 and put up 758 yards as a rookie.

[ndirish1978]

V+A+L+U+E. The draft is deep at WR and you can get 1st round talent in the 2nd and starter-quality into the 4th round according to most experts. That said, WR does have one of the highest bust rates of any position, so it'd be a good idea to double up. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

16 hours ago, glazeduck said:

Why draft a wr? Man... lot's of reasons...

• No proven vet >6'0 (and that's being generous) -- while this draft is chalk full of talent, it's especially full of talent WITH SIZE
• Young QBs need weapons -- invest in your QB. Yes Diggs/Smokey/Beas are a solid trio, but as other's have mentioned, age is an issue with the latter two and injuries with the former two. Given that our QB has less than pinpoint accuracy, a bigger target could make for some easy completions and gained confidence with Josh.
• Historically great draft means the talent that we'll be looking at would likely be rated significantly higher in another year
• Needs elsewhere, yes, but what's the reality of what we'll be looking at with those needs?
  • This is a garbage year for edge; RB is similarly deep but RBs are now undervalued and thus can be waited upon; OT will unlikely be off the board before we pick; CB would be the only other position I'd realistically consider in the 2nd
• New weapons = new attacks: with Smokey and Diggs we should be able to stretch the field vertical plenty, but by bringing in a different type of WR, we'll be able to add new approaches to the offense, stressing defenses more and finding more mismatches... each new way you can stress the defense gives every other approach an improved shot at success.

I'm all aboard the Claypool train at this point. 

I agree we need more good offensive weapons.  I agree we need to give Allen more receivers.   Singletary is about #45 in receiving in 2019. It wasn't a strong suit in college and it was noted in draft publications.  Of the top 5 running backs, three are good receivers. Swift, E-H and Dobbins (I'm pretty sure he is the third).  This is a weapon that we haven't been using.  Remember T.Thomas sneaking out of the backfield and taking a short pass and routinely getting a big chunk?   10-15 yards is the sweet one for Allen right now and several of these top RB's would be a mismatch with LB's  in that area. It would also give fits the the defensive backfields. They have to cover the slot, they would like to double cover both wide outs and now they have to worry about a fast RB coming out of the backfield or being the hot read.  I think this would really help the offense much more than a development OT or a rookie WR.

[maryland-bills-fan]

13 hours ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:

Because there's an obsession on this board with wide receivers.

That is true.  It is a glamor position. Everyone wants to be smart and pick one of those because everyone else is.   A RB1A, who is an upgrade on Singletary will get 10-20 running touches a game. (60-70 offensive plays 45% rushing = ~ 30 rushing).   Singletary  had 14 catches all season in about 10 games.  We can expect even more passes to the RB with a new guy.    There is no way that rookie WR4 is going to have that much improvement in the offense and help to Allen.

[billsfan89]

The team needs depth and to get younger at WR long term. I would love to see one of the Bills first two picks spent at WR. Brown and Beasley are 30 and 31 respectively. WR's fall off around 32-34 so Brown and Beasley aren't long term fits and it would be smart to have an heir apparent esp in a deep WR class. There is also the issue of depth one injury (and Brown especially has been injury prone most of his career) to one of the top 3 WR's and the team is possibly in the same situation they were last season only having 2 consistent receiving options. 

 

So yes the long term need is there and the short term depth need is there to justify taking a WR early. There also aren't many pressing needs on the roster. The needs on the roster are depth and youth at certain positions. They can find a RB to pair with Singletary in round 4, the only other pressing depth/youth need on the roster is DE. In my mind if the Bills can find a good DE and WR in rounds 2 and 3 that would be ideal, take a RB in round 4 and you solidified potential weak points on the roster long and short term. 

[DrDawkinstein]

On 4/5/2020 at 9:16 PM, MrSarcasm said:

So then when will this young whippersnapper start, 2 years, 3 years? Drafting a guy early so he can start in a couple years is just dumb IMHO, especially after we traded to get a stud WR because 'now is the time to be bold'/'make moves'.

 

Our current backups don't help here?

Mckendrick, Foster, Duke and Robert's have all started some and can surely fill the roll when needed to, for a few games at least.

 

Start? Next year maybe, when both Beasely and Brown become very cut-able, and doing so would free a lot of cap space.

 

But they could get playing time this year as well. We run a lot of empty backfield sets.

 

And with the way this class looks, anyone we get in the 2nd-4th should easily be better than McKenzie/Foster/Duke/Roberts

[maryland-bills-fan]

13 hours ago, 4BillsintheBurgh said:

For me this draft will tell me about Beane's mindset - are we going for it this year or are we still looking to add talent. Because a wr at 54 is not a player who will help that much this year (probably). I think an edge rusher (either de or olb) can help this year, probably a te since ours haven't proven a darn thing, a cb could help this year and a rb would probably have the easiest path to help. I would love to see an OL who could upgrade a position at 54, but it doesn't seem like there will be one there. 

 

It will be interesting to see if talent will be enough to trump need this year with the 2nd and 3rd round picks. I am coming around to the OP's thought process, mainly because I think Beane is looking to put the best team possible out on the field in 2020 and a wr taken before round 4 will not make a big enough impact. I think there might be a draft pick later or maybe a cheap FA to try and fill the remaining spots on the roster.

Notice that our second running back did not play or dress for 10 games last year.

[billsfan89]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Start? Next year maybe, when both Beasely and Brown become very cut-able, and doing so would free a lot of cap space.

 

But they could get playing time this year as well. We run a lot of empty backfield sets.

 

And with the way this class looks, anyone we get in the 2nd-4th should easily be better than McKenzie/Foster/Duke/Roberts

 

I fully agree no WR drafted in round 2 or 3 is likely to start esp over proven options. However there exists a need for depth and a need to replace Brown and Beasley long term. This is a deep WR class, the team would be foolish to not get younger at the position when they lack depth. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

2 hours ago, ndirish1978 said:

V+A+L+U+E. The draft is deep at WR and you can get 1st round talent in the 2nd and starter-quality into the 4th round according to most experts. That said, WR does have one of the highest bust rates of any position, so it'd be a good idea to double up. 

...Or you might stay away from a crapshoot and get good professional players who have proven that they can do it.  You know, people like Diggs, Brown, and Beasly.  Naw, the Bills would never do something like that.

[Bangarang]

4 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

...Or you might stay away from a crapshoot and get good professional players who have proven that they can do it.  You know, people like Diggs, Brown, and Beasly.  Naw, the Bills would never do something like that.

The entire draft is a crapshoot. Let’s just forfeit all of our picks. 
 

This a strong WR draft class and outside of our top 3, we have garbage. Beasley and Brown are on the wrong side of 30 and have 2 years left on their respective contracts. It would be wise to get a young guy with talent to develop for a year or 2 who could eventually take over for either Brown or Beasley. That’s kind of the whole point of the draft.

[Mr. WEO]

On 4/5/2020 at 9:16 PM, MrSarcasm said:

So then when will this young whippersnapper start, 2 years, 3 years? Drafting a guy early so he can start in a couple years is just dumb IMHO, especially after we traded to get a stud WR because 'now is the time to be bold'/'make moves'.

 

Our current backups don't help here?

Mckendrick, Foster, Duke and Robert's have all started some and can surely fill the roll when needed to, for a few games at least.

 

 

Yikes.  The question answered itself

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Bangarang said:

The entire draft is a crapshoot. Let’s just forfeit all of our picks. 
 

This a strong WR draft class and outside of our top 3, we have garbage. Beasley and Brown are on the wrong side of 30 and have 2 years left on their respective contracts. It would be wise to get a young guy with talent to develop for a year or 2 who could eventually take over for either Brown or Beasley. That’s kind of the whole point of the draft.

 

Just depends how it falls.  Using a first on diggs means its very unlikely that the 2nd or 3rd rounder would be used on a WR.  Even with a small role to cut out, thats just a lot of draft capital to spend on a single position with already going 3 deep at the position.  Depth is important too, so if there's like 1st round talent leaping out on your board in the 2nd round, i guess you have to take a shot?  It's definitely tricky. 

3 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Yikes.  The question answered itself

 

 

I mean Mckenzie and Foster are both like 25.  Roberts has made his money as a returner (5 return TDs career) - but he also has 3000 yards receiving in his career.  Duke Williams played his way onto the team last year too.  The guy we're talking about might not even be active on gamedays if everyone is healthy. 

[Mr. WEO]

35 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Just depends how it falls.  Using a first on diggs means its very unlikely that the 2nd or 3rd rounder would be used on a WR.  Even with a small role to cut out, thats just a lot of draft capital to spend on a single position with already going 3 deep at the position.  Depth is important too, so if there's like 1st round talent leaping out on your board in the 2nd round, i guess you have to take a shot?  It's definitely tricky. 

 

I mean Mckenzie and Foster are both like 25.  Roberts has made his money as a returner (5 return TDs career) - but he also has 3000 yards receiving in his career.  Duke Williams played his way onto the team last year too.  The guy we're talking about might not even be active on gamedays if everyone is healthy. 

 

Williams is a guy that McD and Daboll were avoiding at all coasts nearly all season---despite that crew of WR and the results.  Roberts can still be a returner.

[maryland-bills-fan]

56 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

The entire draft is a crapshoot. Let’s just forfeit all of our picks. 
 

This a strong WR draft class and outside of our top 3, we have garbage. Beasley and Brown are on the wrong side of 30 and have 2 years left on their respective contracts. It would be wise to get a young guy with talent to develop for a year or 2 who could eventually take over for either Brown or Beasley. That’s kind of the whole point of the draft.

You are ignoring that WR has the highest bust rate of all positions.

[Bangarang]

6 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

You are ignoring that WR has the highest bust rate of all positions.

According to who? What is considered when determining who is a bust? Is there a source that illustrates this?

Edited April 7, 2020 by Bangarang

[Doc]

29 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Williams is a guy that McD and Daboll were avoiding at all coasts nearly all season---despite that crew of WR and the results.  Roberts can still be a returner.

 

Yeah but you don't think upgrading at WR will help at all.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Start? Next year maybe, when both Beasely and Brown become very cut-able, and doing so would free a lot of cap space.

 

But they could get playing time this year as well. We run a lot of empty backfield sets.

 

And with the way this class looks, anyone we get in the 2nd-4th should easily be better than McKenzie/Foster/Duke/Roberts

Maybe Brown battles a hammy all year and he gets a ton of playing time this year. Maybe Diggs breaks his arm and misses 7 weeks. It’s silly to pretend any unit is set at this point.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

35 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Williams is a guy that McD and Daboll were avoiding at all coasts nearly all season---despite that crew of WR and the results.  Roberts can still be a returner.

 

Mckenzie played about 40% of snaps, and Duke/Foster about 20 each with roberts at about 10.  Now Diggs basically takes all of those snaps.  Even a 2nd round rookie is looking at like 10-15% of game snaps... IF he can push Mckenzie out of gadget snaps.  I assume Foster will be the cut - he was alright on special teams... but Between taiwan, neal, wallace/Gaines/rookie, and other depth safeties... its not like he's matthew slater. 

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Maybe Brown battles a hammy all year and he gets a ton of playing time this year. Maybe Diggs breaks his arm and misses 7 weeks. It’s silly to pretend any unit is set at this point.

 

Correct - its also silly to assume a rookie pushes out veterans on a depth chart.  It's also a bit of a luxury to draft a player who if all goes to plan, might get like 100 snaps.