Why do we need a WR in the draft?

[DrDawkinstein]

3 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Correct - its also silly to assume a rookie pushes out veterans on a depth chart.  It's also a bit of a luxury to draft a player who if all goes to plan, might get like 100 snaps.

 

With the way Beane has the roster situated right now, almost any pick can be seen as a luxury pick. We arent desperate for any starter. Anyone and everyone we pick this year will be depth. If they happen to beat out a vet for a spot this year, that is just bonus.

A DE will be fighting for time behind Hughes, Addison, Murphy, and maybe even Johnson. A RB will be splitting time with Singletary, and maybe even sharing with Yeldon. Etc etc

[Doc]

19 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Maybe Brown battles a hammy all year and he gets a ton of playing time this year. Maybe Diggs breaks his arm and misses 7 weeks. It’s silly to pretend any unit is set at this point.

 

No team has All-Pros at every position so no unit is ever set.  And you could apply the "what if X player at Y position gets hurt..." to any team and they'd be in trouble.  Few teams have 3, much 4, top WRs. Take a WR, but not in the 2nd.  Personally I think LB is the way they should go there and take a WR later.

[MrSarcasm]

4 hours ago, FireChans said:

Jarvis Landry was the 12th WR taken in 2014 and put up 758 yards as a rookie.

Jarvis Landry saw playing time in Miami his rookie year. If we take a WR this year he will likely see MAYBE 15% playing time. I'm all for taking a WR in the draft, just not rounds 2-3.

[ndirish1978]

2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

...Or you might stay away from a crapshoot and get good professional players who have proven that they can do it.  You know, people like Diggs, Brown, and Beasly.  Naw, the Bills would never do something like that.

 

At what point in time did I advocate taking a receiver with our first pick or poo-poo'd the idea of the Diggs trade? Looks like you're still sore I made jest of you getting names wrong in that thread you started. The OP asked for the argument of why we need to pick a WR in the draft, I gave him my argument. I should note that you misspelled Beasley, might want to work on that. My days of not taking you seriously are definitely coming to a middle. 

[4BillsintheBurgh]

2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Notice that our second running back did not play or dress for 10 games last year.

Yes I did, surprised he even played that much. They can say they like what he brings, but I always take actions for what they really mean. And it seemed last year that they liked him bringing the gear instead of wearing it on Sunday.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

40 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

With the way Beane has the roster situated right now, almost any pick can be seen as a luxury pick. We arent desperate for any starter. Anyone and everyone we pick this year will be depth. If they happen to beat out a vet for a spot this year, that is just bonus.

A DE will be fighting for time behind Hughes, Addison, Murphy, and maybe even Johnson. A RB will be splitting time with Singletary, and maybe even sharing with Yeldon. Etc etc

 

I'm not against it - If someone they have as a first round talent is there, go for it.  Especially if the other targets aren't as appealing. 

 

I personally want to see a 3rd safety there to use big nickel a bit more.  Between Neal and Johnson you're somewhat suited to handle slot WRs, but neither player there is irreplaceable.  Neal brings more to special teams, but Johnson has been hurt in consecutive years and has had some tackling issues.  I also think adding another layer to stopping TEs is huge.  Especially when the class of the AFC is Baltimore and KC who both use that part of the game a lot.  Steelers added Ebron as well.  

[maryland-bills-fan]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Maybe Brown battles a hammy all year and he gets a ton of playing time this year. Maybe Diggs breaks his arm and misses 7 weeks. It’s silly to pretend any unit is set at this point.

Frankly, I am more worried about running back. Our backup, didn't play or suit up in 10 of the games. One ACL and our entire season is down the drain.

 

[TBBills Fan]

On 4/5/2020 at 9:34 PM, Augie said:

 

Other than needing a RB 1B, I agree with this. That’s a serious need, but they will fill it. I’m not worried. I trust this FO more than any other in a long, long time. 

 

 

We think so...however they saw the PS kid play all year in practice....it may not be as glaring a need as we think just cause we didnt see him progress this year, the coaches did.

[Doc]

I'm not worried about RB2.  There are many options.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

5 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Frankly, I am more worried about running back. Our backup, didn't play or suit up in 10 of the games. One ACL and our entire season is down the drain.

 

 

Disagree.  The super bowl was played with damien williams and raheem mostert as the feature backs.  How many more YPC will singletary get than yeldon and taiwan jones anyway?  

 

I believe they're going to bring more people in, whether a 2nd 3rd or whatever pick.  They'll probably also sign another free agent.  

[maryland-bills-fan]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

According to who? What is considered when determining who is a bust? Is there a source that illustrates this?

Well, I would say that a high draft pick who is off the roster and almost out of the league in 2 years would be a bust.  I had the opinion that WR was the most risky position- I've seen that said a lot and didn't challenge it.  I was wrong.  There are a couple of articles that look by position and round to see who has made starter for half their career, and on the basis of those, I'll take back my view that WR is the most risky.  Looking at https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round 

 

"I did not distinguish superstars from regular starters. The determination of a starter comes from whether the player started at least half of their career."

 

There is a very high bust rate for RBs. The first round gives you a 58% chance of finding a starter followed by 25% in the second, 16% in the third, 11% in the fourth, 9% in the fifth, 6% in the sixth and 0% in the 7th.

 

• The first round success rate is 58% and the second round is almost as good at 49%.
• The third round has the second highest number of receivers drafted with 52 but only a 25% success rate.

A couple of other articles give about the same results.  Not=starters are QB, RB, WR DL and the other.s

 

[maryland-bills-fan]

7 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Disagree.  The super bowl was played with damien williams and raheem mostert as the feature backs.  How many more YPC will singletary get than yeldon and taiwan jones anyway?  

 

I believe they're going to bring more people in, whether a 2nd 3rd or whatever pick.  They'll probably also sign another free agent.  

I think the difference is that we can get a scary guy rather than just a plug-and-play JAG.  We could also jazz up the circle route by the RB and (gasp !!) use the "screen pass", whatever that is. I think it is the best way to improve the offense.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 minutes ago, Doc said:

I'm not worried about RB2.  There are many options.

 

Hyde, Freeman Miller.  All older, and would need a workout before a team would sign them.  Crowells coming off an achilles so he'll probably be cheap.  

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Hyde, Freeman Miller.  All older, and would need a workout before a team would sign them.  Crowells coming off an achilles so he'll probably be cheap.  

Gonna keep banging the Chris Thompson drum

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Gonna keep banging the Chris Thompson drum

 

I like him too.  Injury prone.  But it seems like almost all of these guys have some injury concern.  They're basically free agents due to coronavirus.  But i think one of these guys ends up here, and a rookie.  At the very least need to push Yeldon. 

 

I don't even know why they hate yeldon so much.  Had 900 total yards and 5 TDs in 2018, career YPA of around 4.  I know he doesn't play special teams but yeesh, we carried dimarco and perry for 27 games and yeldon played 6... mostly when singletary was out.  Some strange frank gore obsession by the coaching staff. 

 

Maybe beane likes yeldon and is trying to convince mcdermott that we already have the backup RB? 

[glazeduck]

3 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I agree we need more good offensive weapons.  I agree we need to give Allen more receivers.   Singletary is about #45 in receiving in 2019. It wasn't a strong suit in college and it was noted in draft publications.  Of the top 5 running backs, three are good receivers. Swift, E-H and Dobbins (I'm pretty sure he is the third).  This is a weapon that we haven't been using.  Remember T.Thomas sneaking out of the backfield and taking a short pass and routinely getting a big chunk?   10-15 yards is the sweet one for Allen right now and several of these top RB's would be a mismatch with LB's  in that area. It would also give fits the the defensive backfields. They have to cover the slot, they would like to double cover both wide outs and now they have to worry about a fast RB coming out of the backfield or being the hot read.  I think this would really help the offense much more than a development OT or a rookie WR.

I don't think you're wrong, a pass-catching RB is certainly a weapon that we're missing. 

 

I come at this purely from a value perspective. RBs are now a dime a dozen and there are quite a few in this draft who can catch the football in the later rounds (Gibson, Benjamin, Corbin, Robinson to name a few.......) Motor is talented enough to be our 75% back, no need to spend a top pick on a satellite back when the aforementioned can be had MUUUUCH later. How often are you going to get a guy at the end of 2, that should be in the 1st without major red flags? 

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, dneveu said:

 

Mckenzie played about 40% of snaps, and Duke/Foster about 20 each with roberts at about 10.  Now Diggs basically takes all of those snaps.  Even a 2nd round rookie is looking at like 10-15% of game snaps... IF he can push Mckenzie out of gadget snaps.  I assume Foster will be the cut - he was alright on special teams... but Between taiwan, neal, wallace/Gaines/rookie, and other depth safeties... its not like he's matthew slater. 

 

Correct - its also silly to assume a rookie pushes out veterans on a depth chart.  It's also a bit of a luxury to draft a player who if all goes to plan, might get like 100 snaps.

There is no position on this team that a rookie will be getting >500 snaps barring injuring.

 

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

No team has All-Pros at every position so no unit is ever set.  And you could apply the "what if X player at Y position gets hurt..." to any team and they'd be in trouble.  Few teams have 3, much 4, top WRs. Take a WR, but not in the 2nd.  Personally I think LB is the way they should go there and take a WR later.

It has nothing to do with “being in trouble.” It has everything to do with “we shouldn’t draft BPA because everyone will definitely be healthy all year and there’s no reason to have a quality player in the wings.” 

 

The crux of the whole discussion is that you will have early 2nd round grade players in the middle 2nd and third rounds at WR in this draft. That’s a value you simply cannot pass with the 22nd pick in the second round. If there’s a LB or RB that Beane ranks higher at our pick, then that’s the guy I want. But if the BPA is a WR, you don’t reach for a DE or OT or whatever.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

There is no position on this team that a rookie will be getting >500 snaps barring injuring.

 

It has nothing to do with “being in trouble.” It has everything to do with “we shouldn’t draft BPA because everyone will definitely be healthy all year and there’s no reason to have a quality player in the wings.” 

 

The crux of the whole discussion is that you will have early 2nd round grade players in the middle 2nd and third rounds at WR in this draft. That’s a value you simply cannot pass with the 22nd pick in the second round. If there’s a LB or RB that Beane ranks higher at our pick, then that’s the guy I want. But if the BPA is a WR, you don’t reach for a DE or OT or whatever.

 

 

I don't disagree.  But you're using your first and 2nd round picks on WRs.  They brought McKenzie back after the Diggs trade, so I think they're planning on a later round developmental guy imo.  

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 minutes ago, dneveu said:

I don't disagree.  But you're using your first and 2nd round picks on WRs.  They brought McKenzie back after the Diggs trade, so I think they're planning on a later round developmental guy imo.  

It really depends on who's there come pick 54. If it's a Hamler, Reagor, Aiyuk, or Higgins type you pull the trigger for value. They can contribute year 1 and potentially save us money or let us dangle a vet for value next year.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

It really depends on who's there come pick 54. If it's a Hamler, Reagor, Aiyuk, or Higgins type you pull the trigger for value. They can contribute year 1 and potentially save us money or let us dangle a vet for value next year.

 

I'd argue Shenault too.  But again - we don't know who else is there.  Their board isn't the same as kipers, and they probably have some players higher than others.