This is the best WR class of our generation

[LABILLBACKER]

On 4/4/2020 at 1:54 PM, Aussie Joe said:

If a guy they like is still there then sure...

 

Don’t pick one in the 2nd for the sake of picking one though 

Agreed. No one denies how deep this draft is for wrs. They'll be good ones available in the 3rd round. 

[GunnerBill]

17 hours ago, DCofNC said:

Its way too early to call this class anything more than a good looking group of prospects.  That said, because of the depth, there should be some real talent pushed into the later rounds.  Ideally you find a guy in round 3 or 4 that needs some polish, has a current injury or something that pushed them down and bring them in.  You might just get another Diggs type.  Diggs is nothing elite in terms of talent, but he works hard and produces, hopefully that will rub off.

 

I disagree. I think Diggs IS elite in terms of talent. 

[Doc Brown]

28 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I disagree. I think Diggs IS elite in terms of talent. 

He is.  He was the 2nd rated WR prospect by scout.com coming out of high school.  He turned down Ohio State, Florida, and USC to stay close to home in Maryland.  That was a mistake and a couple of injuries as well as declaring for the draft early caused him to split through the cracks.  He's absolutely as talented as most of these top prospects.

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

He is.  He was the 2nd rated WR prospect by scout.com coming out of high school.  He turned down Ohio State, Florida, and USC to stay close to home in Maryland.  That was a mistake and a couple of injuries as well as declaring for the draft early caused him to split through the cracks.  He's absolutely as talented as most of these top prospects.

 

Yea he was a guy I hadn't see at all in college hadn't watched at all leading up to the draft and knew nothing at all about. I remember watching Minnesota play Detroit his rookie year and he just leapt off the screen to me. I have been a huge fan ever since. Release and route running are special.

[BillsFan692]

On 4/4/2020 at 9:56 PM, Rc2catch said:

 You don’t have to use a higher round draft pick on receivers. This is just silly. Rounds 3-5 still produce great players especially at receiver. I hate to inform some of you but we’re not the chiefs or saints.  This is still a run first team. Don’t want to turn it into an Allen thread but until he takes his game to a new level we are a run team. We won’t be throwing 40+ times a game unless we’re losing big time. I am sure they will consider adding talent to the receiver room but I don’t think it’s high #1 priority as the OP demands 

I mean you say that but allen threw quite a bit last season, at times and through stretches almost head scratchingly so to the point of threads being created to talk about why Daboll didnt just run more singletary

Edited April 9, 2020 by BillsFan692

[BillsFan17]

The hype is there, absolutely. However, I aire on the side of caution. The Mayfield/Darnold/Rosen class was supposed to blow 2004 out of the water, and to date.

 

Lamar- they were all dead wrong about 

 

Allen- for my money is the second best in the class, but still has a long way to go.

 

Mayfield- chubby boy getting hummers behind chain restaurants while regressing mightily last year.

 

Darnold- All the talent in the world, no support from coaching down to the roster. They have a good GM in place, but like Carr with the Texans back in the day, the damage might just already be too much. Kid sees Bruce Willis for crying out loud.

 

Point is, the hyper train, while fun leading up to the draft, often leaves the station with less passengers than they started off with.

 

Hence why, I really do think Beane nailed it with landing Diggs. 

Edited April 9, 2020 by BillsFan17

[maryland-bills-fan]

On 4/4/2020 at 5:00 PM, MJS said:

Well, half of them will bust. They always do.

Here are two charts from: https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/#2064cbbe7495

 

The first chart shows (for all positions) the percent of players, by round that started 80% of their games   "...... I looked at all players drafted in the 2010 draft, and gauged what percentage of games over those five years (a max of 80 games) have players started.  The sample size here of 210 players produced these results:"

Percentage of Total Games Started
(Since 2010...80 games max)
Groups	Median
Overall	15.0% -----------
1st	67.5%
2nd	33.8%
3rd	36.3%
4th	6.3%
5th	4.4%
6th	1.9%
7th	0.0%

 

So, for all positions (QB, RB and WR are the most risky picks) there is a from the first round there is 67% chance you will get a starter,  Second round is 34% , overall is 15% for all 7 rounds,   etc.

=-======================================================================================

 

The Bills have a good roster and, my opinion, is that he is using the draft to try to get all-pro level players and uses FA to get solid players and backup players. (at lower draft rounds he takes moon shots at great athletes and hopes for development).  If you are going to beat other very good teams in the playoffs, you need to have the best players.   He is looking for all pro players. Here is their analysis of getting 1st and 2nd team all pros

Round	Freq.	Percent	Cuml.
1	83	48.5	48.5
2	24	14.0	62.6
3	15	8.8	71.4
4	12	7.0	78.4
5	9	5.3	83.6
6	6	3.5	87.1
7	2	1.2	88.3
Undrafted	18	10.5	98.8
Supplemental	2	1.2	100.0
Total	171	100

 

Once you are out of the first round the percent goes way down. 

......

 

The the comment that half of them are busts is more than true.  Overall the draft gives a 15% chance of getting a starter.

 

.....

 

 

 

.....

[ehfeuh57]

2014 class:

 

Mike Evans

Odell Beckham

Devante Adams

Brandin Cooks

Allen Robinson

Jarvis Landry

Sammy Watkins

John Brown

Paul Richardson

K Benjamin

M Lee

Jordan Mathews

Moncreif

C Latimer

Martavis Bryant

 

[Pete]

On 4/4/2020 at 6:57 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

There are 3 first rounders. The 4th best guy - Higgins - is an early round 2 type who will probably go higher. The Bills brass went in numbers to his pro day and came back and decided to trade for Diggs. Beane knows. The top 3 will gone and none of the others really justified pick #22. 

Higgins will slide on draft day IMO and will be nowhere near the 4th WR off board.   Lamb, Jeudy, and Ruggs obviously go top 3.  Mimms, Shenault, Aiyuk, Reagor, Pittman, Hamler, Claypool, Edward, Jefferson, etc all off board before Higgins IMO

[GunnerBill]

20 minutes ago, Pete said:

Higgins will slide on draft day IMO and will be nowhere near the 4th WR off board.   Lamb, Jeudy, and Ruggs obviously go top 3.  Mimms, Shenault, Aiyuk, Reagor, Pittman, Hamler, Claypool, Edward, Jefferson, etc all off board before Higgins IMO

 

I think you are wrong. I am not saying he will be the 4th off the board but no way he is 12th or 13th. He is a lot better than some of those you listed. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

On 4/4/2020 at 4:49 PM, Tesla03 said:

We have to take advantage. I think WR at pick 2 is almost a must if a top prospect is there. And there is a very very good chance a 1st round rated guy will drop to us. 

 

John Brown is 30, Cole Beasley is turning 31. We need a young WR here that can be our future and can learn under the vets while they are still here. Not to mention this offense really still needs more skill players. adding Diggs is huge but won't be enough to get us where we need to be on offense next season. 

 

people talking about drafting a DB or LB, what is gonna happen if our offense fails to score over 2 TD's per game again next season. Our defense was top 3 last season, as long as we are in the top 10 we will be fine. We arguably have the best secondary in the NFL, drafting a rookie CB won't improve us all that much on defense. 

 

Define "Generation".  Is it better than 96?  2014?  Is it that the top 3 are can't miss?  Or is it that it's super deep?  

 

Why does it HAVE to be in the 2nd?  Whats wrong with a WR in the 3rd?  We don't even know who's there in the 2nd vs. 3rd.

[Clyde Smith]

Class of '96 is still the best for me, hands down. Let's see in 10 yrs the impact class of '14 and '20 will have on the NFL.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

23 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think you are wrong. I am not saying he will be the 4th off the board but no way he is 12th or 13th. He is a lot better than some of those you listed. 

 

And just because players have high 2nd round grades doesn't mean they don't go in the first.  My guess is at least 5 WRs are off the board in the first.  Maybe 6.  And i think 10 or 11 will be selected before buffalo picks at 54.  

Edited April 9, 2020 by dneveu

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Here are two charts from: https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/#2064cbbe7495

 

The first chart shows (for all positions) the percent of players, by round that started 80% of their games   "...... I looked at all players drafted in the 2010 draft, and gauged what percentage of games over those five years (a max of 80 games) have players started.  The sample size here of 210 players produced these results:"

Percentage of Total Games Started
(Since 2010...80 games max)
Groups	Median
Overall	15.0% -----------
1st	67.5%
2nd	33.8%
3rd	36.3%
4th	6.3%
5th	4.4%
6th	1.9%
7th	0.0%

 

So, for all positions (QB, RB and WR are the most risky picks) there is a from the first round there is 67% chance you will get a starter,  Second round is 34% , overall is 15% for all 7 rounds,   etc.

=-======================================================================================

 

The Bills have a good roster and, my opinion, is that he is using the draft to try to get all-pro level players and uses FA to get solid players and backup players. (at lower draft rounds he takes moon shots at great athletes and hopes for development).  If you are going to beat other very good teams in the playoffs, you need to have the best players.   He is looking for all pro players. Here is their analysis of getting 1st and 2nd team all pros

Round	Freq.	Percent	Cuml.
1	83	48.5	48.5
2	24	14.0	62.6
3	15	8.8	71.4
4	12	7.0	78.4
5	9	5.3	83.6
6	6	3.5	87.1
7	2	1.2	88.3
Undrafted	18	10.5	98.8
Supplemental	2	1.2	100.0
Total	171	100

 

Once you are out of the first round the percent goes way down. 

......

 

The the comment that half of them are busts is more than true.  Overall the draft gives a 15% chance of getting a starter.

 

.....

 

 

 

.....

 

If the WR we get is the 10-12th off the board.  Who would you want it to be?  Do you think the 12th one off the board has all-pro potential?

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

And just because players have high 2nd round grades doesn't mean they don't go in the first.  My guess is at least 5 WRs are off the board in the first.  Maybe 6.  And i think 10 or 11 will be selected before buffalo picks at 54.  

 

Yea I think 6 receivers in the first. 

[ngbills]

On 4/4/2020 at 3:23 PM, papazoid said:

and if diggs was in this draft...he'd be the first WR off the board

 

which is likely to be no latter than pick #11

You could make that claim every year. There are a number of differences with the biggest being the $ being paid. Teams greatly benefit by having a guy on his rookie deal as you get a number of years of very low $ that can be used elsewhere. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

41 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I think 6 receivers in the first. 

 

Big 3.  Higgins probably.  Jefferson.  Mims or Reagor maybe?  Aiyuk could sneak in there too. 

 

I think all of those guys are gone by our pick, as well as probably shenault, Claypool, maybe Pittman too just because of size.  I'd like to see Tyler Johnson later in this draft, guys just a football player.  

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Big 3.  Higgins probably.  Jefferson.  Mims or Reagor maybe?  Aiyuk could sneak in there too. 

 

I think all of those guys are gone by our pick, as well as probably shenault, Claypool, maybe Pittman too just because of size.  I'd like to see Tyler Johnson later in this draft, guys just a football player.  

 

Yea big 3, Higgins, Jefferson (even though I wouldn't) Aiyuk. That is my 6. 

[FireChans]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea big 3, Higgins, Jefferson (even though I wouldn't) Aiyuk. That is my 6. 

I thought Reagor had a sneaky chance of being a late first but he wasn’t as fast as I thought he’d be.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea big 3, Higgins, Jefferson (even though I wouldn't) Aiyuk. That is my 6. 

 

If Jefferson ends up in NO, I think he'll do well.  Seattle might be interesting too - lockett metcalf and jefferson.  Maybe GB.

 

Somewhere where he's not expected to be #1, and can play in the slot, move around etc. 

Just now, FireChans said:

I thought Reagor had a sneaky chance of being a late first but he wasn’t as fast as I thought he’d be.

 

He probably slips - but deep ball tracking and actually catching the ball on deep routes is more important than running really fast.  Same with Getting off the line in press, as well as running more of a route tree.  I think a super fast 40 would have got him picked higher, and thus more money.  But it doesn't really change who he is as a player.