Roster Spots Filling Up

[mjt328]

With the draft flying around the corner, most of us are looking at the team's biggest needs.  But I thought it would be interesting to see how many roster spots we can legitimately fill with rookies.  I was surprised how tough it will be to cut-down to 53 spots this year.

 

Barring trade/injury, I consider the following starting players to be roster locks:

Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, Patrick DiMarco, Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox, Mitch Morse, Quinton Spain, Jon Feliciano, Dion Dawkins, Cody Ford, Mario Addison, Jerry Hughes, Star Lotulelei, Ed Oliver, AJ Klein, Tremaine Edmunds, Matt Milano, Tre White, Levi Wallace, Taron Johnson, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Steven Hauschka and Reid Ferguson.  That comes to 26 players.

 

There are also several backups that I expect to be guarantees, either because of their value to the team or because their contract makes it extremely tough to cut them:

Spencer Long, Ryan Bates, Daryl Williams, Quinton Jefferson, Harrison Phillips, Vernon Butler, Tyler Matakevich and Siran Neal.  The Bills must carry a punter, whether that is Corey Bojorquez or someone else.  Since they haven't added a veteran QB, I expect Matt Barkley to stick.  Tyler Kroft's restructured contract pretty much guarantees he will stick.  That is 11 additional depth guys, bringing the total to 37 players.

 

 

If I am correct, this would leave only 16 roster spots technically up-for-grabs.  Let's take a look at these positions, and who would be forced out if we draft someone:

 

Quarterback

Highly unlikely we keep more than 2 on the active roster.  Not sure if Davis Webb has practice squad eligibility, but that probably determines whether he sticks as the #3 guy or if we replace him with a Day 3 draft pick.

 

Running Back

Currently, TJ Yeldon is the only "veteran" RB in the locker room.  Which is something this particular coaching staff seems to want.  Taiwan Jones is probably safe because of his role as a special teams gunner.  If we carry 4 backs and draft someone, that probably pushes Christian Wade back to the practice squad.

 

Wide Receiver

Andre Roberts is our only return specialist.  Duke Williams is our only WR with good size.  Isaiah McKenzie is our gadget player.  If we carry 6 WRs and draft someone, that pushes one of these guys off the roster - and that's without even considering Robert Foster, Nick Easley and Ray-Ray McCloud.

 

Offensive Line

I consider 8 O-Linemen above to be roster locks.  And that is without counting Ty Nsekhe, who technically could get released without much dead cap.  If we draft anyone, we can probably say goodbye to Ike Boettger and Victor Salako.

 

Defensive Line

We are completely set at tackle, so say goodbye to Vincent Taylor.  If we draft an edge rusher, that would likely cause us to cut Trent Murphy and push Darryl Johnson back to the practice squad.  Just can't see us carrying more than 8 on the active roster.  It's unlikely Jonathan Woodard and Mike Love make it.

 

Linebacker

Vosean Joseph was showing promise during training camp before getting hurt.  If we add someone, then likely Corey Thompson, Tyrel Dodson and Del'Shawn Phillips get cut.

 

Defensive Backs

I considered 4 CBs to be locks, without even counting Josh Norman or EJ Gaines.  It's unlikely we carry more than 6 guys here.  So wave goodbye to Cam Lewis.  At backup safety, they seem to like Jaquan Johnson and brought back Dean Marlowe.  Both are expendable if we draft someone.

 

 

[TigerJ]

I don't recall where, but someone observed that rather than acquiring compensatory picks from a net loss of free agents, Beane has developed a knack for acquiring more quality on the roster than the team can actually use, then trading away the excess for draft picks.  That could happen, for instance on the offensive line.

[thurst44]

29 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

With the draft flying around the corner, most of us are looking at the team's biggest needs.  But I thought it would be interesting to see how many roster spots we can legitimately fill with rookies.  I was surprised how tough it will be to cut-down to 53 spots this year.

 

Barring trade/injury, I consider the following starting players to be roster locks:

Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, Patrick DiMarco, Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox, Mitch Morse, Quinton Spain, Jon Feliciano, Dion Dawkins, Cody Ford, Mario Addison, Jerry Hughes, Star Lotulelei, Ed Oliver, AJ Klein, Tremaine Edmunds, Matt Milano, Tre White, Levi Wallace, Taron Johnson, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Steven Hauschka and Reid Ferguson.  That comes to 26 players.

 

There are also several backups that I expect to be guarantees, either because of their value to the team or because their contract makes it extremely tough to cut them:

Spencer Long, Ryan Bates, Daryl Williams, Quinton Jefferson, Harrison Phillips, Vernon Butler, Tyler Matakevich and Siran Neal.  The Bills must carry a punter, whether that is Corey Bojorquez or someone else.  Since they haven't added a veteran QB, I expect Matt Barkley to stick.  Tyler Kroft's restructured contract pretty much guarantees he will stick.  That is 11 additional depth guys, bringing the total to 37 players.

 

 

If I am correct, this would leave only 16 roster spots technically up-for-grabs.  Let's take a look at these positions, and who would be forced out if we draft someone:

 

 

This is some excellent analysis, but good news as I think we have two more roster spots to fill this year as it's up to 55 players (I could be wrong here)

[Mark Vader]

30 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

I don't recall where, but someone observed that rather than acquiring compensatory picks from a net loss of free agents, Beane has developed a knack for acquiring more quality on the roster than the team can actually use, then trading away the excess for draft picks.  That could happen, for instance on the offensive line.

Beane got a draft pick for Russell Bodine.

 

What more needs to be said?

[Steve Billieve]

We get more than 53 immediately though?

[BigBuff423]

This is why I don't believe the Bills have any true interest in Drafting more than a few players, just no room for them. The roster is in a condition that can cast off players that are just mediocre to players that are good to great to elite. Filling three or four spots via mid-high picks is more valuable to the Bills at this point than in years past when we all hoped they'd hit the lottery in Rounds 5-7 because they NEEDED good players from those rounds just to be able to fill a serviceable team. 

 

Now, we want a couple 2nds or 2nd, 3rd, and two 4ths in order to feel they've actually upgraded the team with quality depth players, not guys we're wishing on a rainbow will be just good enough to make the roster and not embarrass the team next year. My oh my what a good GM / Front Office and competent HC can do for a team. Bring...it....on.

1 minute ago, Steve Billieve said:

We get more than 53 immediately though?

 

True - but really you don't spend vital, valuable Draft capital on players you believe will need to be cut down before the season - those spots are for UDFAs or FAs with low money numbers attached. You spend Draft picks on guys you truly believe will be long-term contributors and with the depth and quality they have at nearly every position, you take quality over quantity. In this year's Draft, that's three maybe four picks in Rounds 2 to 4....RB / WR / Edge / CB....that's it. And maybe not CB depending on how that room is perceived by the FO and HC.

[Steve Billieve]

5 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

True - but really you don't spend vital, valuable Draft capital on players you believe will need to be cut down before the season - those spots are for UDFAs or FAs with low money numbers attached. You spend Draft picks on guys you truly believe will be long-term contributors and with the depth and quality they have at nearly every position, you take quality over quantity. In this year's Draft, that's three maybe four picks in Rounds 2 to 4....RB / WR / Edge / CB....that's it. And maybe not CB depending on how that room is perceived by the FO and HC.

I thought they bumped it up to 55 or 58 or something. Maybe that's only when the new cba kicks in?

[hjnick]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

With the draft flying around the corner, most of us are looking at the team's biggest needs.  But I thought it would be interesting to see how many roster spots we can legitimately fill with rookies.  I was surprised how tough it will be to cut-down to 53 spots this year.

 

Barring trade/injury, I consider the following starting players to be roster locks:

Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, Patrick DiMarco, Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox, Mitch Morse, Quinton Spain, Jon Feliciano, Dion Dawkins, Cody Ford, Mario Addison, Jerry Hughes, Star Lotulelei, Ed Oliver, AJ Klein, Tremaine Edmunds, Matt Milano, Tre White, Levi Wallace, Taron Johnson, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Steven Hauschka and Reid Ferguson.  That comes to 26 players.

 

There are also several backups that I expect to be guarantees, either because of their value to the team or because their contract makes it extremely tough to cut them:

Spencer Long, Ryan Bates, Daryl Williams, Quinton Jefferson, Harrison Phillips, Vernon Butler, Tyler Matakevich and Siran Neal.  The Bills must carry a punter, whether that is Corey Bojorquez or someone else.  Since they haven't added a veteran QB, I expect Matt Barkley to stick.  Tyler Kroft's restructured contract pretty much guarantees he will stick.  That is 11 additional depth guys, bringing the total to 37 players.

 

 

If I am correct, this would leave only 16 roster spots technically up-for-grabs.  Let's take a look at these positions, and who would be forced out if we draft someone:

 

Quarterback

Highly unlikely we keep more than 2 on the active roster.  Not sure if Davis Webb has practice squad eligibility, but that probably determines whether he sticks as the #3 guy or if we replace him with a Day 3 draft pick.

 

Running Back

Currently, TJ Yeldon is the only "veteran" RB in the locker room.  Which is something this particular coaching staff seems to want.  Taiwan Jones is probably safe because of his role as a special teams gunner.  If we carry 4 backs and draft someone, that probably pushes Christian Wade back to the practice squad.

 

Wide Receiver

Andre Roberts is our only return specialist.  Duke Williams is our only WR with good size.  Isaiah McKenzie is our gadget player.  If we carry 6 WRs and draft someone, that pushes one of these guys off the roster - and that's without even considering Robert Foster, Nick Easley and Ray-Ray McCloud.

 

Offensive Line

I consider 8 O-Linemen above to be roster locks.  And that is without counting Ty Nsekhe, who technically could get released without much dead cap.  If we draft anyone, we can probably say goodbye to Ike Boettger and Victor Salako.

 

Defensive Line

We are completely set at tackle, so say goodbye to Vincent Taylor.  If we draft an edge rusher, that would likely cause us to cut Trent Murphy and push Darryl Johnson back to the practice squad.  Just can't see us carrying more than 8 on the active roster.  It's unlikely Jonathan Woodard and Mike Love make it.

 

Linebacker

Vosean Joseph was showing promise during training camp before getting hurt.  If we add someone, then likely Corey Thompson, Tyrel Dodson and Del'Shawn Phillips get cut.

 

Defensive Backs

I considered 4 CBs to be locks, without even counting Josh Norman or EJ Gaines.  It's unlikely we carry more than 6 guys here.  So wave goodbye to Cam Lewis.  At backup safety, they seem to like Jaquan Johnson and brought back Dean Marlowe.  Both are expendable if we draft someone.

 

 

Wow! great roster breakdown.

 

I think someone else said this, but I thought the new CBA expanded the roster size, active gameday roster size, and practice squad size.

[mjt328]

23 minutes ago, hjnick said:

Wow! great roster breakdown.

 

I think someone else said this, but I thought the new CBA expanded the roster size, active gameday roster size, and practice squad size.

 

Just looked up the article on ESPN.  Starting this season, the new CBA expands the practice squad from 10 to 12, and the game-day active roster from 46 to 48.  It then allows teams to elevate 2 players from the practice squad to the active roster per week.

 

So technically - yes, the roster will now carry 55 players instead of 53 players.  But those last two guys are still eligible to get poached from other teams.  

This is good for stashing some extra late-round picks and undrafted free agents, but doesn't really help those back-end veterans who are looking to stick.

 

Either way, the Bills don't have very many spots available.  I have a tough time believing we keep all 7 picks.  My guess is that Beane trades up once or twice.

And even those guys we pick in the 2nd and 3rd will be playing backup for quite a while.

 

 

Just noticed that I left off Tight End, but I think this position is likely pretty much set.  Not much room for another body.

 

The Bills generally carry 4 guys, and I see both Knox/Kroft as roster locks.  They seem to like keeping one blocking specialist, which for the time-being is Lee Smith.  They also seem to like Tommy Sweeney's potential.  So right now, Jason Croom and Nate Becker on are on the outside looking in.  

Edited April 1, 2020 by mjt328

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

 

Just looked up the article on ESPN.  Starting this season, the new CBA expands the practice squad from 10 to 12, and the game-day active roster from 46 to 48.  It then allows teams to elevate 2 players from the practice squad to the active roster per week.

 

So technically - yes, the roster will now carry 55 players instead of 53 players.  But those last two guys are still eligible to get poached from other teams.  

This is good for stashing some extra late-round picks and undrafted free agents, but doesn't really help those back-end veterans who are looking to stick.

 

Either way, the Bills don't have very many spots available.  I have a tough time believing we keep all 7 picks.  My guess is that Beane trades up once or twice.

And even those guys we pick in the 2nd and 3rd will be playing backup for quite a while.

 

 

Just noticed that I left off Tight End, but I think this position is likely pretty much set.  Not much room for another body.

 

The Bills generally carry 4 guys, and I see both Knox/Kroft as roster locks.  They seem to like keeping one blocking specialist, which for the time-being is Lee Smith.  They also seem to like Tommy Sweeney's potential.  So right now, Jason Croom and Nate Becker on are on the outside looking in.  

I have an idea. Teach Knox, Kroft, Sweeney and Croom how to block. Then they can easily discard "penalty Smith".....

[Saxum]

14 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I have an idea. Teach Knox, Kroft, Sweeney and Croom how to block. Then they can easily discard "penalty Smith".....

 

Do you know how many penalties had or are you "guesser" backer?

[Heffay]

10 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

Do you know how many penalties had or are you "guesser" backer?

He had 9 penalties last season.

[First Round Bust]

welcome Heffay - thanks for the lookup 

[Ennjay]

3 hours ago, BigBuff423 said:

This is why I don't believe the Bills have any true interest in Drafting more than a few players, just no room for them. The roster is in a condition that can cast off players that are just mediocre to players that are good to great to elite. Filling three or four spots via mid-high picks is more valuable to the Bills at this point than in years past when we all hoped they'd hit the lottery in Rounds 5-7 because they NEEDED good players from those rounds just to be able to fill a serviceable team. 

 

Good analysis in the OP.  As for the quote above, we could quibble about what "a few" means, but the roster breakdown reinforces why people (well, at least me) don't care about the number of picks Beane gave up in the Diggs trade.  I think he's worth the #1 if you want to win now (which we do) and the rest of the package was a bunch of ???'s that would have a hard time making this team -- picks from the rounds Beane added to with the Bodine and Teller trades.

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, TigerJ said:

I don't recall where, but someone observed that rather than acquiring compensatory picks from a net loss of free agents, Beane has developed a knack for acquiring more quality on the roster than the team can actually use, then trading away the excess for draft picks.  That could happen, for instance on the offensive line.

 

Yep. I expect the same again. We will trade two or three guys for late round picks around the end of camp. Oline certainly possible, maybe linebacker and maybe wide receiver if Foster ends up on the bubble. 

[Don Otreply]

Nice read mjt328, 

The roster is in good shape and we will be trading/releasing quality players for a second straight year, nothing like a competent FO & Coach combo.

 

Go Bills!!!

[ROCBillsBeliever]

16 hours ago, mjt328 said:

 

I have a tough time believing we keep all 7 picks.  My guess is that Beane trades up once or twice.

 

I agree, but I also think that Beane wants next year's 4th rounder back. Picks in the current year are generally worth one round higher in the next. He could trade the 7th and a 6th (this year) for a 5th, then trade this year's 5th for a 4th next year. That would leave us with:

 

2020

2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th

 

2021 - Full slate (haven't looked into any moves, beyond the 2021 4th we traded for Diggs). 

 

Those 4th rounders are valuable to Beane, and I have to believe he will be on the hunt to bring 2021's back. 

[BarleyNY]

18 hours ago, TigerJ said:

I don't recall where, but someone observed that rather than acquiring compensatory picks from a net loss of free agents, Beane has developed a knack for acquiring more quality on the roster than the team can actually use, then trading away the excess for draft picks.  That could happen, for instance on the offensive line.

That is a good strategy in general, but in seasons when a team is signing a lot of qualifying FAs it is especially important.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

20 hours ago, mjt328 said:

With the draft flying around the corner, most of us are looking at the team's biggest needs.  But I thought it would be interesting to see how many roster spots we can legitimately fill with rookies.  I was surprised how tough it will be to cut-down to 53 spots this year.

 

Barring trade/injury, I consider the following starting players to be roster locks:

Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, Patrick DiMarco, Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox, Mitch Morse, Quinton Spain, Jon Feliciano, Dion Dawkins, Cody Ford, Mario Addison, Jerry Hughes, Star Lotulelei, Ed Oliver, AJ Klein, Tremaine Edmunds, Matt Milano, Tre White, Levi Wallace, Taron Johnson, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Steven Hauschka and Reid Ferguson.  That comes to 26 players.

 

There are also several backups that I expect to be guarantees, either because of their value to the team or because their contract makes it extremely tough to cut them:

Spencer Long, Ryan Bates, Daryl Williams, Quinton Jefferson, Harrison Phillips, Vernon Butler, Tyler Matakevich and Siran Neal.  The Bills must carry a punter, whether that is Corey Bojorquez or someone else.  Since they haven't added a veteran QB, I expect Matt Barkley to stick.  Tyler Kroft's restructured contract pretty much guarantees he will stick.  That is 11 additional depth guys, bringing the total to 37 players.

 

 

If I am correct, this would leave only 16 roster spots technically up-for-grabs.  Let's take a look at these positions, and who would be forced out if we draft someone:

 

Quarterback

Highly unlikely we keep more than 2 on the active roster.  Not sure if Davis Webb has practice squad eligibility, but that probably determines whether he sticks as the #3 guy or if we replace him with a Day 3 draft pick.

 

Running Back

Currently, TJ Yeldon is the only "veteran" RB in the locker room.  Which is something this particular coaching staff seems to want.  Taiwan Jones is probably safe because of his role as a special teams gunner.  If we carry 4 backs and draft someone, that probably pushes Christian Wade back to the practice squad.

 

Wide Receiver

Andre Roberts is our only return specialist.  Duke Williams is our only WR with good size.  Isaiah McKenzie is our gadget player.  If we carry 6 WRs and draft someone, that pushes one of these guys off the roster - and that's without even considering Robert Foster, Nick Easley and Ray-Ray McCloud.

 

Offensive Line

I consider 8 O-Linemen above to be roster locks.  And that is without counting Ty Nsekhe, who technically could get released without much dead cap.  If we draft anyone, we can probably say goodbye to Ike Boettger and Victor Salako.

 

Defensive Line

We are completely set at tackle, so say goodbye to Vincent Taylor.  If we draft an edge rusher, that would likely cause us to cut Trent Murphy and push Darryl Johnson back to the practice squad.  Just can't see us carrying more than 8 on the active roster.  It's unlikely Jonathan Woodard and Mike Love make it.

 

Linebacker

Vosean Joseph was showing promise during training camp before getting hurt.  If we add someone, then likely Corey Thompson, Tyrel Dodson and Del'Shawn Phillips get cut.

 

Defensive Backs

I considered 4 CBs to be locks, without even counting Josh Norman or EJ Gaines.  It's unlikely we carry more than 6 guys here.  So wave goodbye to Cam Lewis.  At backup safety, they seem to like Jaquan Johnson and brought back Dean Marlowe.  Both are expendable if we draft someone.

 

 

 

For WR think they will draft someone, particularly if someone with size  likely Williams is the odd man out as McKenzie gives them the gadget plats, maybe get Williams back to PS

 

Will depend how Ford looks pre-season, if he looks fine, then maybe Ty or Williams is cut, or they keep 9.

 

Same with D line I think they keep 9 total.  Can't see that they'd sign all these guys, pay roster bonuses only then to turn around and cut Murphy who was the lineman last year that played the most.  If they draft someone , then Johnson goes to PS   Remember McD seems like like fresh bodies on the line

 

With re-signing Proyer, could see them waiting a year before drafting a safety

 

They get two extra roster spots this year, think it will be two of the following three groups taking those spots: D line, O-line, secondary.  Which two not certain, if I had to guess I'd go with secondary and D-line

[maryland-bills-fan]

6 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

For WR think they will draft someone, particularly if someone with size  likely Williams is the odd man out as McKenzie gives them the gadget plats, maybe get Williams back to PS

 

Will depend how Ford looks pre-season, if he looks fine, then maybe Ty or Williams is cut, or they keep 9.

 

Same with D line I think they keep 9 total.  Can't see that they'd sign all these guys, pay roster bonuses only then to turn around and cut Murphy who was the lineman last year that played the most.  If they draft someone , then Johnson goes to PS   Remember McD seems like like fresh bodies on the line

 

With re-signing Proyer, could see them waiting a year before drafting a safety

 

They get two extra roster spots this year, think it will be two of the following three groups taking those spots: D line, O-line, secondary.  Which two not certain, if I had to guess I'd go with secondary and D-line

Well, about cutting somebody you paid a roster bonus to.  Maybe rather than cutting those guys, they might trade them away near the end of the preseason to other teams that find holes or injuries in their lineups.   You could then (maybe) justify the roster bonus as an investment in getting a 4,5,6 draft pick next year.   If they stockpile a bunch of these, they can use them as ammo to move up in the 1st three rounds to get targeted players- like they have been doing.

Edited April 2, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan