For those that want a RB in the first few rounds

[DJB]

29 minutes ago, 32ABBA said:

 

 

I think you are underestimating  Singletary. He is a sensation waiting for more opportunities.

 

Akers will never be as good as Singletary, I could see Swift or Taylor being a challenge, though.

 

 

The issue I have with Singletary is he isnt built to carry a huge workload and like Knox I hope he ordered a juggs machine during the pandemic. All except maybe Taylor are all better at pass catching than Singletary is. 

 

I love when he runs the ball but he has areas to improve. 

[RocCityRoller]

Hey Virgil, like the post as usual. The team is bereft of ball carriers after Motor. The RB position is devalued, but is still important. Nothing helps a young QB better than a good O-line and a good running game.

 

If I ran a team I would draft a RB every year/ every other year in rounds 3-5. If I was a GM and had two capable RBs with 2-3 yrs on their rookie contract I would pass on drafting one unless they were the clear BPA. I also wouldn't shell out Todd Gurley/ LeVeon Bell money on FAs or guys about to become FA. If I had an Elliott/ Henry type I may extend, but only in those circumstances.

 

Right now Buffalo has 1 capable RB with 3 yrs left on is rookie contract, that is Motor. So I would draft one in rounds 3-5 this year. Now if a Jonathan Taylor who almost had 3x2000 seasons falls to me in the 2nd, I do it immediately. I would also want complimentary backs. A big guy and a fast guy, or  mauler/blocker and a pass catcher.

 

With a plethora of 1-2nd round graded QBs/ WRs and OT's and a shortage of impact DE and Edge this is the perfect year to snag a top tier RB in the 2nd round. I've been on plenty of simulated drafts and seen mocks with Taylor or Dobbins fall to 54. If there is some DE/Edge, RT, TE, CB that falls to 54 fine take him, but you better bet I am dialing up a RB in the 3rd.

 

 

[gobills404]

6 minutes ago, 32ABBA said:

It's funny, because when I watch all these guy's highlights, none of them look any better than TJ Yeldon did in college....

 

 

Yeah I agree his NFL career has definitely been disappointing

[Prickly Pete]

10 minutes ago, gobills404 said:

Yeah I agree his NFL career has definitely been disappointing

 

 

There's a thin line between "Really-Good-Back" and "Just -A-Guy".

 

 

Edited April 1, 2020 by 32ABBA

[RocCityRoller]

So I just did another Fanspeak mock draft Steve (March 31 Big Board) / Steve needs/ Difficult. I had my pick of Dobbins and Taylor at Buffalo's pick.

 

Pretty sure there will be an impact RB available at 54.

 

Draft will be posted on the fanspeak thread.

[Phil The Thrill]

On 3/29/2020 at 10:06 PM, Logic said:

I hear what you're saying, but it doesn't concern me.

I look at New England, for instance. Last year, obviously, they weren't so great on offense. In the couple of years prior to that, though, it seemed like the amount of carries given to each back varied from game to game. If they were facing a lighter, faster defense, they'd pound it between the tackles with Michel. If they were facing bigger, slower linebackers, they'd toss it in the flats all day to James White or Rex Burkhead.

I want variety in the running game. I want a short yardage back not named Josh Allen. I want someone who, if 5 foot 7 Devin Singletary misses a stretch of games, can sub in and the offense won't miss a beat.

Attitude/confidence wise, I believe Beane and McDermott have been brining in team-first guys, not me-first guys, so that part doesn't concern me.

This is the same match-up based philosophy that Brian Daboll believes in.  I think we’re likely to see a back with a different style than Motor

[maryland-bills-fan]

8 hours ago, 32ABBA said:

It's funny, because when I watch all these guy's highlights, none of them look any better than TJ Yeldon did in college....

 

 

I agree.  Every good college player can get together a highlight video and look like superman. The defenders are smaller and slower and dumber than the average player that they will work against in the pros.  It is hard for us non-experts to figure things out- the pro scouts have enough knowledge to know the level of opposition they faced and have better opinions.

4 hours ago, Phil The Thrill said:

This is the same match-up based philosophy that Brian Daboll believes in.  I think we’re likely to see a back with a different style than Motor

But, then there is the argument that if the newbie is too different, it will restrict the type of plays we can run and tip our hand on what play is coming.  Also if the 1a goes down, then the entire offense has to be altered. I think there should be quite a bit of overlap in abilities.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I agree.  Every good college player can get together a highlight video and look like superman. The defenders are smaller and slower and dumber than the average player that they will work against in the pros.  It is hard for us non-experts to figure things out- the pro scouts have enough knowledge to know the level of opposition they faced and have better opinions.

But, then there is the argument that if the newbie is too different, it will restrict the type of plays we can run and tip our hand on what play is coming.  Also if the 1a goes down, then the entire offense has to be altered. I think there should be quite a bit of overlap in abilities.

 

Yet it sort of worked in one way or another for NE for like 20 years.  Their Oline struggles hindered it in 2019 - but previous years

Michel, White, Burkhead

Gillislee lewis white

Blount lewis white

Back in the day with Faulk and Sammy Morris.  Danny Woodhead.  Vereen, Ridley, Gray... 

 

Definitely a pattern there of matchup running backs and receiving backs.  

[T master]

On 3/29/2020 at 8:40 PM, Virgil said:

I’m probably going to regret this post as it even sounds dumb in my head to a degree, but that’s means it’s perfect for the offseason. 
 

There’s a lot of talk about the Bills getting a RB in rounds 2-4 in April’s draft.  In recent years, your top 3 runningbacks might fall into that range and there’s some serious studs in this years draft.  
 

With that....

 

Does anyone worry about bringing in a guy that could also be a full blown, every down back in with Singletary?   I am of the camp that RB’s need to get into a rhythm throughout a game.  Look at Derrick Henry.  He doesn’t just knock people over out of the gate.  He builds abs builds until he starts busting off long runs in the second half.  
 

Also, I worry about confidence to a certain degree.  Motor isn’t a seasoned vet.  You want people out there who know they are “the guy”.
 

That’s pretty much all I’ve got.  Feel free to tell me how they are all millionaires and there’s no crying in baseball  

 

It use to be said that it took a RB time to get into the rhythm of the game but now it's a RB by comity soon 1 back gets to get into the so called rhythm of the game & i don't know how that can change from what was to what is now doesn't make a lot of sense .

 

A good running game is paramount to winning a championship IMHO all pieces of the team need to be working but some need to be more than others the run game is one of those that needs to be better than say ST's & you need that 1 back that will get into that rhythm to make it work.

 

I think Singletary can be that guy to take the bulk of the carry's but there will be a time they need a #2 that can step in & give him a breather but i would rather have a bigger back for those times .

[Einstein's Dog]

After reading some of the comments here, I wouldn't be upset seeing the Bills take 2 RBs.  A CEH in round 2 or if possible 3, and an AJ Dillon type in round 4 or 5.   Get an RB2 that is on the level of D Singletary, that can split carries and take over the same game plan in case of injuries.  And get a different type, a bruiser who can gut out the short yardage, even if the other team knows it's coming.

Yes, that might seem like a lot of draft capital but it is not investing a lot of money into the position.  It seems like the FO has intentionally left the RB situation unfilled for the draft.  It seems like a given that they'll grab one.  But if they could use the almost useless later round picks and combine them into AJ Dillon, I'd be on board with that.

 

[maryland-bills-fan]

A thing to look at is what other teams might be doing with regard to RB and other needs.  I think that at the following positions, there is a good number of 1st round/early 2nd round talent, but then a significant drop off after that. (OT, DE, LB, S  QB & LB).  Teams will use up their early picks taking those guys while the getting is good. This might let good RB's drop lower in the draft.   At WR and RB, there are a good number of top talent and also good players available in the 3rd and 4th round. It might mean that teams with a mild need for WR & RB could wait to later rounds to get an okay to good JAG, and not use a higher pick for RB.

 

It looks like the following teams will take a RB high.  Miami (picks 5, 39,,, we can't complete and they have a lotof picks) = SWIFT gone?   Tampa pikcs at 14 and 45 = Taylor gone?  KC at #32 can take BPA and could use a RB upgrade. .... Others looking in the 3-4 round area are Colts, Texans, Steelers Jags(38) and Baltimore.    Any of these might also move up.   We might see the top 3 go and have Akens, Dobbins or E-H still around at #54

https://nfldraftlounge.com/5-teams-that-need-a-2020-running-back/

[Thurman#1]

On 3/30/2020 at 5:59 PM, papazoid said:

Gore led the team in carries,  that must be replaced.

 

ok, so singletary replaces gore. who replaces singletary ? cause it ain't yeldons career 4.0 yards per carry.

 

as of today, RB2 is the biggest need on roster.....until and unless  beanne signs a free agent.

 

 

 

Yeldon's 4.0 could do it, if necessary. It looks like the Bills love the guy. And for RBs who have 150 carries or more, Yeldon's 4.0 would tie for 20th in the league, which isn't bad. Not great either, certainly. But not that bad.

 

I expect them to bring somebody in, but I'd bet they don't feel compelled so much as happy to do so if the opportunity makes sense. No need whatsoever for them to overpay or reach.

 

And while I don't agree with you on that assertion, if RB2 is the biggest need on the roster, that's less a sign of what a big need it is than of what a solid roster they've put together.

 

My guess ... a 3rd, 4th or 5th in this draft and a happy bunch of fans later. I hope it's A.J. Dillon, myself.

Edited April 2, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Lurker]

On 3/31/2020 at 8:35 PM, gobills404 said:

Yeah I agree his NFL career has definitely been disappointing

 

He hasn't had Alabama's O-line to block for him against over-matched 20-year old kids.

 

His upright running style may have worked against air in college but it's not been effective in the NFL, where holes are smaller and contact balance is a necessity...

[Thurman#1]

On 3/31/2020 at 2:14 AM, maryland-bills-fan said:

[1] Beane takes advantage of what will be in the draft around our pick.  [2] Beane uses the draft to get difference maker players, and get them cheaply on rookie contracts. [3] what he did this year was use FA to improve the offensive and defensive lines, and NOT the running back position, where we don't have a second running back. [4] because one of the top 5 RB will be drafted using our 2nd round pick and whatever else is necessary to get a TD difference maker and break away threat to help Allen.  That RB will be the BPA at our pick (or move up). [5] If there is a run on the RB's that is beyond our reach, we lose and will get JAG using the 3rd round pick and use BPA at #54.  LB or CB.

 

 

 

This is a perfect example of how to talk yourself into a reach.

 

More, you're wrong at nearly every one of those five steps. Your second idea is that he gets difference makers in the draft. Nonsense. He sometimes gets difference makers and sometimes not. Oliver, Edmunds, maybe Singletary, Allen was developmental, hell they weren't going to start him till late in the season till they were forced to ... that's about it as far as difference makers. What he does is pick the BPA. If he'd wanted difference makers he wouldn't have grabbed Ford - especially when they clearly are still trying him at tackle rather than guard - when guys like Greedy Williams, AJ Brown and Mecole Hardman were available. 

 

Third, yeah, he didn't get an RB in FA. Yet. No particular reason to think he won't though. There are five or six very solid vets sweating it out watching their price go down. That could easily still happen. And we do have a 2nd running back, just not one with any glamor. 

 

Fourth, if they do grab an RB at some point, it could very very easily be a change of pace back, a hammer such as AJ Dillon or Perine or Eno Benjamin. The kind of guy you're talking about is what you want. Which is fine. But no reason to think it's what Beane and McDermott want. Was last year's RB2 a home run hitter?

 

And fifth, there is absolutely no reason to think that the guys beyond the top five are JAGs, none whatsoever. This is a terrific draft for RBs in the mid-rounds.

 

We get it that you won't be happy without an RB in round two. But that's precisely how reaches happen, when guys fix on what they want and then let confirmation bias have it's merry way with them. It's not how this FO operates, though, luckily. You're not hiding your desperation, I'll give you that. You come right out in your last sentence and say it, "If ... we lose and ... use BPA at #54."

 

Using BPA isn't losing. It's the smart play. It's their draft strategy and a major part of what has gotten this roster so good so fast.

Edited April 2, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Lurker]

17 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 What he does is pick the BPA.

 

 

Well, not according to him...

 

 

[maryland-bills-fan]

50 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

This is a perfect example of how to talk yourself into a reach.

 

More, you're wrong at nearly every one of those five steps. Your second idea is that he gets difference makers in the draft. Nonsense. He sometimes gets difference makers and sometimes not. Oliver, Edmunds, maybe Singletary, Allen was developmental, hell they weren't going to start him till late in the season till they were forced to ... that's about it as far as difference makers. What he does is pick the BPA. If he'd wanted difference makers he wouldn't have grabbed Ford - especially when they clearly are still trying him at tackle rather than guard - when guys like Greedy Williams, AJ Brown and Mecole Hardman were available. 

 

Third, yeah, he didn't get an RB in FA. Yet. No particular reason to think he won't though. There are five or six very solid vets sweating it out watching their price go down. That could easily still happen. And we do have a 2nd running back, just not one with any glamor. 

 

Fourth, if they do grab an RB at some point, it could very very easily be a change of pace back, a hammer such as AJ Dillon or Perine or Eno Benjamin. The kind of guy you're talking about is what you want. Which is fine. But no reason to think it's what Beane and McDermott want. Was last year's RB2 a home run hitter?

 

And fifth, there is absolutely no reason to think that the guys beyond the top five are JAGs, none whatsoever. This is a terrific draft for RBs in the mid-rounds.

 

We get it that you won't be happy without an RB in round two. But that's precisely how reaches happen, when guys fix on what they want and then let confirmation bias have it's merry way with them. It's not how this FO operates, though, luckily. You're not hiding your desperation, I'll give you that. You come right out in your last sentence and say it, "If ... we lose and ... use BPA at #54."

 

Using BPA isn't losing. It's the smart play. It's their draft strategy and a major part of what has gotten this roster so good so fast.

Sorry but you are wrong.  You forget that the Bills DID move up at least twice in the last 3 drafts. Jones, Dawkins,  Allen, Edmonds, Ford,  Knox,  obtained by move ups using 1st, 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks. (Diggs is essentially a "trade up" that gets a top WR  by using draft picks)That is NOT taking BPA, it is moving up-you would call that reaching. You seem to confuse Beane getting the players he wants to improve the team, with "reaching". ... ... There IS no magic Big Board in the sky that always leads to heaven.  You have to build a balanced team. .. Beane has coordenated the use of FA, trades and the draft.

 

Edited April 2, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan

[billsfan89]

On 4/1/2020 at 6:20 AM, dneveu said:

 

Yet it sort of worked in one way or another for NE for like 20 years.  Their Oline struggles hindered it in 2019 - but previous years

Michel, White, Burkhead

Gillislee lewis white

Blount lewis white

Back in the day with Faulk and Sammy Morris.  Danny Woodhead.  Vereen, Ridley, Gray... 

 

Definitely a pattern there of matchup running backs and receiving backs.  

 

Faulk was the most annoying player ever. Any time the Pats were struggling to move the ball he would get them a couple of critical first downs in clutch moments to set up a winning field goal or grind out the clock. 

28 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Well, not according to him...

 

 

 

I would be shocked if Beane trades up from 54 unless it is a minor trade up 3-6 spots. I think given the need for critical depth and youth at several positions (DE, Secondary, LB, WR, and RB) trading away significant picks to make a major trade up could end up costing the Bills the ability to plug smaller holes on the roster in the mid to late rounds. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

BigBuff423

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Posted yesterday at 02:57 PM     ROTER SPOTS FILLING UP

This is why I don't believe the Bills have any true interest in Drafting more than a few players, just no room for them. The roster is in a condition that can cast off players that are just mediocre to players that are good to great to elite. Filling three or four spots via mid-high picks is more valuable to the Bills at this point than in years past when we all hoped they'd hit the lottery in Rounds 5-7 because they NEEDED good players from those rounds just to be able to fill a serviceable team. 

 

Now, we want a couple 2nds or 2nd, 3rd, and two 4ths in order to feel they've actually upgraded the team with quality depth players, not guys we're wishing on a rainbow will be just good enough to make the roster and not embarrass the team next year. My oh my what a good GM / Front Office and competent HC can do for a team. Bring...it....on.

On 4/1/2020 at 2:56 PM, Steve Billieve said:

We get more than 53 immediately though?

 

True - but really you don't spend vital, valuable Draft capital on players you believe will need to be cut down before the season - those spots are for UDFAs or FAs with low money numbers attached. You spend Draft picks on guys you truly believe will be long-term contributors and with the depth and quality they have at nearly every position, you take quality over quantity. In this year's Draft, that's three maybe four picks in Rounds 2 to 4....RB / WR / Edge / CB....that's it. And maybe not CB depending on how that room is perceived by the FO and HC.

[maryland-bills-fan]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

This is a perfect example of how to talk yourself into a reach.

 

More, you're wrong at nearly every one of those five steps. Your second idea is that he gets difference makers in the draft. Nonsense. He sometimes gets difference makers and sometimes not. Oliver, Edmunds, maybe Singletary, Allen was developmental, hell they weren't going to start him till late in the season till they were forced to ... that's about it as far as difference makers. What he does is pick the BPA. If he'd wanted difference makers he wouldn't have grabbed Ford - especially when they clearly are still trying him at tackle rather than guard - when guys like Greedy Williams, AJ Brown and Mecole Hardman were available. 

 

Third, yeah, he didn't get an RB in FA. Yet. No particular reason to think he won't though. There are five or six very solid vets sweating it out watching their price go down. That could easily still happen. And we do have a 2nd running back, just not one with any glamor. 

 

Fourth, if they do grab an RB at some point, it could very very easily be a change of pace back, a hammer such as AJ Dillon or Perine or Eno Benjamin. The kind of guy you're talking about is what you want. Which is fine. But no reason to think it's what Beane and McDermott want. Was last year's RB2 a home run hitter?

 

And fifth, there is absolutely no reason to think that the guys beyond the top five are JAGs, none whatsoever. This is a terrific draft for RBs in the mid-rounds.

 

We get it that you won't be happy without an RB in round two. But that's precisely how reaches happen, when guys fix on what they want and then let confirmation bias have it's merry way with them. It's not how this FO operates, though, luckily. You're not hiding your desperation, I'll give you that. You come right out in your last sentence and say it, "If ... we lose and ... use BPA at #54."

 

Using BPA isn't losing. It's the smart play. It's their draft strategy and a major part of what has gotten this roster so good so fast.

Using BPA isn't losing. It's the smart play. It's their draft strategy and a major part of what has gotten this roster so good so fast.

 

Sorry, but you seem to be living in the past and staying with a strategy that is not appropriate to a team that is in the top 10 or so. If a team is in the bottom eight, BPA is a good idea, because nearly every draft pick will make the roster and be an improvement. That is not where the Bills are at right now.

 

What we need to get in the draft is not “best value from every pick” but to get players who can beat the opponent’s players on very good teams. You don’t seem to be able to understand that. So using lower round draft picks (who might not even make the team) to move up to get such superior players is what we need to do.

 

If you have a good roster, you look for holes in the roster and look for places where you can put in a stud to replace a good player. Quality, not “cost effective 3^rd teamers. .. If you still have lower draft picks left over- then take moon shots.

 

Right now RB1b/RB1a is the best place to get the biggest improvement and a place where we can put in a player that other teams will have to account for. The top 5 are very very good and we even have a shot at one of the top 3. I think Beane anticipated this would likely happened and made his FA moves accordingly.

Edited April 2, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan

[maryland-bills-fan]

cf: https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

Quote

 

This post has a simple criteria: How many players were drafted by position and round over the last decade and how many went on to become a starter........

..........

Running Backs

The position has been devalued over the years but the statistics still show that it is better to draft early if you are looking for a starter.

• Of the 207 players drafted 33 have become starters for half their careers. This gives an indication that there is a lot of Running Back By Committee (RBBC).
• There is a very high bust rate for RBs. The first round gives you a 58% chance of finding a starter followed by 25% in the second, 16% in the third, 11% in the fourth, 9% in the fifth, 6% in the sixth and 0% in the 7th.
• If you rank the rounds by the total RBs drafted you find that the greatest number are drafted in the 7th, followed by the 4th, 6th, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, and 5th.

If you want a stud RB, they are likely to come from the first round. If you are looking for depth, the fourth round seems to be the place to go. This year Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon have the first round grades based on statistics it seems likely that one of the two will be a bust. However, this could be like 2007 when AP and Beastmode went in the first round. For the Chiefs, since 2007 they have taken a RB every draft except 2010. Both Charles and Davis were the highest drafted both coming in the 3rd round.