RB is a really GLARING need, right?

[Einstein's Dog]

8 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Nothing about signing a player prohibits them from drafting a player.  I think 54 is early though - considering they drafted the starter last year at 74.  Bring in a talented player... at whatever position at 54.  

True, but I'm hoping they could reallocate resources.  Save on signing these Gore/ broken Shady types and put that money, along w Murphy cut and a few mill into Clowney.  I would get a lot more excited seeing Clowney added than Hyde/Shady/Gore etc.

[ColoradoBills]

13 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Agreed.  Singletary is not a Bell Cow RB and that era is over anyway.   And if Singletary is 1a, Yeldon is not 1b.

 

I don't agree with the posters who seem to think RBs are a dime-a-dozen.  There's just as big a difference between JAGs and Superstars at the RB position as any other position.  I'd like the Bills 1b to be someone who's good-to-great, not just a JAG like Yeldon.  

 

Ideally, the 1a and 1b possess different skillsets.  So I'd love to see us draft a strong between-the-tackles bruiser.  

 

Agree with the notion of "RBs being a dime-a-dozen" is false.  Most teams are going to the 1a/1b system which means you probably don't

want to use a 1st round on those players.  2nd round is MAYBE too high but the thought that 5-7 and UDFAs are viable is wrong.

 

9 hours ago, nucci said:

I've heard they are a dime a dozen and you can get a really good one in 5th or 6th round....or so I've read

 

LOL so have I and I don't believe everything I read.

I go get my own facts.  I've posted this last week and I will do it again.

Sweet spot for a decent RB is the 3rd round IMHO.

People thinking they can get a good RB in rounds 5-7 need to look at the facts.

 

Last 6 years of drafted RBs ROUND 1-2.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2014&year_max=2019&draft_round_min=1&draft_round_max=2&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&pick_type=overall&pos[]=rb&conference=any&show=all&order_by=rush_yds

 

Last 6 years of drafted RBs Round 3-4

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2014&year_max=2019&draft_round_min=3&draft_round_max=4&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&pick_type=overall&pos[]=rb&conference=any&show=all&order_by=rush_yds

 

Last 6 years of drafted RBs Round 5-7

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2014&year_max=2019&draft_round_min=5&draft_round_max=7&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&pick_type=overall&pos[]=rb&conference=any&show=all&order_by=rush_yds

[YoloinOhio]

22 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

In actually think the backs will go higher than usual in this draft. If said it a few times, but with this virus situation, it’s going to be very difficult to get production out of rookies who play positions that will need significant development time. It will be more of a crapshoot than ever before. So I think teams are going to go heavy on corners, defensive line, running backs...the plug and play positions. I think the high risk, low floor players may go later than usual. 

Depends on if you are only looking at this year or are projecting the value of the pick over 4-5 years

[Happy Days Lois & Clark]

54 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

With all due resptect lets play out what is very likely to happen......"Tiny" Singletary is out for4 games like he was last year,  the load has to be carried by a 5th rounder?   There are about 130 scrimmage plays in a game. Say 65 offensive.  Say 33 run and 33 pass.  So for 33 plays you want to have a "value" pick from Dollar General Store carrying the ball for the Bills?     A third string cornerack  or a fourth string DE on the bench is not going to help us then.

The Bills still have TJ Yeldon too.

[MrEpsYtown]

2 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Depends on if you are only looking at this year or are projecting the value of the pick over 4-5 years

I just think the circumstances this year may force teams into going for immediate value and impact over projected value.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

The thought of moving up for a RB in this draft makes me ill. I don’t think any of them would be worth it to the Bills. Now watch them do it, and me throw things at the TV. 

 

What did you throw at the TV when Ryan was "coach?"  Or did it go out the window?

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I just think the circumstances this year may force teams into going for immediate value and impact over projected value.

I think you're whole train of thought here makes sense.  

 

Because the Bills want to win now, and because this position really does seem to be a position of immediate need, it makes sense that Beane would be aggressive.   Add in your guess, and I think there's some validity to it, that this year many GMs will see value in plug-n-play positions.   That will just put more pressure on Beane to move early.   

 

Bottom line, an aggressive move, trade or draft pick, is almost certain.   Diggs was an investment for this year, with ongoing value to the team.  A running back is the other investment they need to make, and it has to be a guy who promises immediate returns.  

[Turk71]

  Bring back Jonathan Williams cheap and draft one. Williams looked really good when Mack was injured last year.

  Use the money saved on another position.

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

19 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I actually have no problem with Yeldon as a #2 if they actually dress him and let him play. He’s not amazing or anything, but he’s a solid #2 who could excel in the passing game. 

But it does seem likely that a Devonta Freeman type winds up here once people can take physicals. 

I’ve seen yeldon do good things. So unsure why he just never played, eve when it was clear the season was wearing gore down.

 

if I remember right, he had the most spectacular preseason catch from josh in a wheel route. 

Edited March 27, 2020 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Buddo]

2 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I just think the circumstances this year may force teams into going for immediate value and impact over projected value.

 

I think it's an interesting point. My best guess would be that teams who genuinely (note the genuinely bit) believe they are going to be contenders this year (they have to assume it's going to happen), will be much more likely to go after the immediate impact guys, while those who are in building, or rebuilding mode, will still go after the higher risk (and ceiling) guys.

 

In an odd way, that could help poorer teams a year or two down the line, by letting them get some better talent that needs a year or two to develop.

 

Back to the OP.

 

RB is, quite simply, a glaring need. We do not have adequate numbers (or quality) on the roster at the moment. People seem to be missing the point somewhat. We need RB help. Where we may or may not get it, is the question that comes after, 'Do we need RB help?'

 

Where we may get that help, is quite obviously through either the draft or FA.

 

The 3rd round last year, where we got Singletary, represents pretty much a steal, and a number of the prognosticators about the draft, felt that at the time, not just with the benefit of hindsight. That being the case, should an equivalent talent come up, then imho we would be foolish not to take it, as it gives us the 1-2 punch we obviously want at RB - even if that is with our 2nd round pick.

 

Failing that, or getting a later round pick the FO is high on, there is always FA. As a number of people have pointed out in this thread, some of the better veterans, (left) may not be readily available due to the lack of physicals being able to be done. It might be a blessing in disguise for the odd one or two of those vets, as they get more time to heal fully. I wouldn't necessarily rule out trying to add another one anyway, and the longer things go on, the weaker the market will be for them, so a potential bargain may be had.

 

I'm sure that something will be done to address the need, as, as Shaw pointed out, there currently is no 'Plan B' at RB, and there are plenty of options for it to be done.

 

Personally, I'm well in favour of drafting another good one, assuming there is one available to us at either our 2nd or 3rd round pick. Now we have Diggs, we can draft another WR at any point. Beane has said that the WR class is as deep as he's seen it, and I'm sure we will have draftable grades on WRs, all the way through the 7th round. 

 

We've made some very interesting additions to the D-Line, and while we definitely need to find a younger DE, I'm not sure rounds 2 or 3 are the ones to do it in. Seems like a big drop off from the top guys, who we won't get a sniff at. Next year, either with a 1st round pick, or FA, (possibly both) may be when we look to get younger at DE - sometimes you have to be realistic and understand that you can't do better than what you've got - even with future 'upside' as it were.

 

The additions of Norman and Gaines make our CB group look more solid than last year - no disrespect to Kevin Johnson, who I thought did a decent job.

 

With re-signing Waddle, and the addition of Williams, we've also pretty much covered the weakness at RT - may the best man win, with a possible 'perm any one from 4' competition.

 

While I'd prefer it if we manage to acquire a decent vet (RB) before the draft, I'm not too worried about it, as there are still plenty around. My preference being because it does mean we can purely follow our board, with no potential distractions off of need.

[Cal]

No. Edge rusher and size at WR are my top two

[maryland-bills-fan]

14 hours ago, Turk71 said:

  Bring back Jonathan Williams cheap and draft one. Williams looked really good when Mack was injured last year.

  Use the money saved on another position.

 

When you pay cheap, you get cheap.  Even if it is  a good deal and investment,  3 times and average player gives you just a better average player.  We need to get a guy at Rnning Back who other teams have to scheme against.  That makes all the WR look better if it keeps the LB shallow and the safeties keeping an eye on the line of scrimage.   How would you like to be playing CB, when the WR, instead of making a break, plows into you and drives you into the ground when it is a run.?

12 hours ago, Cal said:

No. Edge rusher and size at WR are my top two

The 10th edge rusher in  draft is not going to take playing time from the guys already on the roster. There are NOT a dozen Bruce Smiths in the draft this year. Take that to the bank.

Edited March 28, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan

[maryland-bills-fan]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

This makes a lot of sense.   I'd add that what they say about running back being the most instinctive position on the field, it's a possition where you really can count on a rookie making a difference.   Couple that with the fact that Beane and McDermott know exactly the kind of guy they're looking, and that guy may not be what the public values - the glamour runners.  Coming out of college, SIngletary didn't look the kind of guy you'd expect to be a dominant ball carrier.   McBeane understood that he a collection of attributes that could make him a dominant football player.   

 

Since McBeane are looking for a different combination of attributes, guys they like seem to last longer in the draft.   Allen, Edmunds, Ford, Singletary all are examples. 

 

 t win-now statement with the Diggs trade.    He can't sit back and just let the running back situation work itself out - the win-now decision has already been made.    McDermott needs someone he can count on in that role.    

Here is a concept that I am being to be able to articulate.  Beane is using the cap money to get good playoers to fill the needs of the team in free agency. He is good at seeing quality, often buried in other teams depth sand grabbing the right guys.  BelliCheck was good at that. Beane is was well.  ONCE he fills as many holes as possible with FA, then he goes to the draft and gets the players he didn't get in FA and will move up to get them. HE ALSO DOES IT THE OTHER WAY AROUND. He sees where we are going to draft, goes over who will likely be at our pick or that we can get with a trade up, and then goes shopping in FA for the guys to improve the other positions that need upgrading.   The nice thing about this second method (and they try out both approaches to see which works best), is that you can concentrate on getting real game changers in the draft AND get them with rookie contracts.  THAT is where we are right now.   Gee, no long-in-the tooth runningback?  Oh, we are going to show everyone how smart we are and get a 3rd round quality RB in the 6th round.  (BS)

Edited March 27, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan

[MJS]

Nope. It's a nice to have piece. We can sign guys off the street to come in and be competent backups if we really need. But I fully expect the Bills to draft someone or sign someone because we have the space and it would be nice to have.

 

Singletary is a good starter. You would only say a position is a huge need if you don't have a good starter.

[maryland-bills-fan]

8 hours ago, dneveu said:

They're going to sign someone.  Beane has basically always said - i like to use FA to fill gaps, and then have flexibility in the draft.  

No, you look at the draft and who you might get,  fill the other holes with FA, and then get a real game changer cheap in the draft.

6 hours ago, Putin said:

I wouldn’t say glaring Bob 

go kick a cactus.

[Motor26]

2 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

No, you look at the draft and who you might get,  fill the other holes with FA, and then gt a real game changer cheap in the 

I think edge is where they need to find a real game changer in the early rounds. Grab a guy like Moss, Dillon in the later rounds. Bills have a good starting running back already. They just need a guy to supplement him with. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

7 hours ago, Dopey said:

We have 1 rb who played any significant downs last year. The fact that the rb position is "easy" to fill does not mean it's not a glaring position of need. 1 guys, 1. Definitely a glaring need.

What about the 4 games when Singleton was out with a hammie.  Do we get a mulligan on those games?  Do your remember Davis getting us into the SuperBowl with the comeback against Houston?

 

Just now, Motor26 said:

I think edge is where they need to find a real game changer in the early rounds. Grab a guy like Moss, Dillon in the later rounds. Bills have a good starting running back already. They just need a guy to supplement him with. 

The 10th defensive end in the draft is going to be a game changer?   Why didn't the other 53 picks grab that guy?

[Motor26]

3 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

What about the 4 games when Singleton was out with a hammie.  Do we get a mulligan on those games?  Do your remember Davis getting us into the SuperBowl with the comeback against Houston?

 

The 10th defensive end in the draft is going to be a game changer?   Why didn't the other 53 picks grab that guy?

If someone drops into the early to mid  2nd I could see Beane trading up. 

[Turk71]

16 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

When you pay cheap, you get cheap.  Even if it is  a good deal and investment,  3X and average player gives you just a better average player.  We need to get a guy at Rnning Back who other teams have to scheme against.  That makes all the WR look better if it keeps the LB shallow and the safeties keeping an eye on the line of scrimage.   How would you like to be playing CB, when the WR, instead of making a break, plows into you and drives you into the ground when it is a run.?

 

  Paying more doesn't guarantee better play and players outperform their contracts every year. The Bills already have a starting rb, are you suggesting giving a big contract to a backup? Or replacing Singletary as starter?

   Also, I have no idea what '3X and average player' means.

[maryland-bills-fan]

12 hours ago, Turk71 said:

  Paying more doesn't guarantee better play and players outperform their contracts every year. The Bills already have a starting rb, are you suggesting giving a big contract to a backup? Or replacing Singletary as starter?

   Also, I have no idea what '3X and average player' means.

What I mean is that if you fish in the 10 guys who "were not important enough for their team to franchise them" pond or even offer them a good contract... you can get a good solid just another guy, who will do an okay job.  Or maybe a real good (3x) okay job. What we can and should get is somebody who will be a couple of levels above that and scare the other defensive coordinators.  There are 3 guys who could be that and another 2-3 who have a good chance to be that guy.  Remember that the RB gets the ball on about half or a quarter of the offensive plays. Why not make that something else then plain vanilla?

12 hours ago, Turk71 said:

  Paying more doesn't guarantee better play and players outperform their contracts every year. The Bills already have a starting rb, are you suggesting giving a big contract to a backup? Or replacing Singletary as starter?

   Also, I have no idea what '3X and average player' means.

Also rookie contracts are cheap.

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan