RB is a really GLARING need, right?

[The_Ripster]

54 minutes ago, Augie said:

To say Singletary struggled in the zone scheme and Moss excelled, while Singletary had a a slightly better YPC makes me wonder how you arrived at that point?  Your eye just might have lied. 

Hey man, stats can be twisted all kinds of ways.

[Teddy KGB]

Hear me out. 
 

Tremaine Edwards as RB1 

[The_Ripster]

6 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

Hear me out. 
 

Tremaine Edwards as RB1 

 
Lol who's Tremaine EDWARDS?

[JaCrispy]

13 minutes ago, The_Ripster said:

 
Lol who's Tremaine EDWARDS?

Not sure, but I hear Trent Edmunds is a sleeper pick at TE...stay tuned...😉

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, The_Ripster said:

Like @Hapless Bills Fan "Bills were bottom-3rd of the league (20th) with 1723 rush yards, and If we subtract out Allen's 421 rush yards, that would be even worse: 1302 yds which would put us....2nd to last in the league for rush yards."

Are you suggesting our OLine is 2nd to last in the league? Allen is gonna eat regardless IMO, he's just that good.

I think it would be disappointing if the RB's can't generate 1500+ yards between the 3 of them. 

 

You're taking one line out of context and seriously distorting my meaning thereby.  Frankly, when someone is attempting to address a question YOU asked in a realistic and meaningful way, that's somewhat tacky.

 

I am in response to your question "Is it safe to say this season is a make or break year for the current backfield? Assuming it is Singletary, Moss + Breida, would it be a failure if none of them come close to cracking 1000 yards?"

 

We know Allen and the WR are going to "eat" in the passing game, so the number of rush attempts is unlikely to increase substantially.

 

The point I was making is to address your question quoted above: establish where we were last season, and then look at what would be a realistic improvement goal for rush yards, given that we aren't likely to "change our spots" and become a run-first team - and that our backs are unlikely to become Chubb, Jones, or Henry (top backs in the league for YPA).

 

That was my point: "So where do we want to be?  I would say we want to improve to above average: ~2000 yds maybe? which would put us 11th in the league.  If we assume that Allen gets comparable rushing yards, that would say we need ~1500 yds from our backs. 

 

Last season we had 300 attempts from our backs.  With that # of attempts that would be 5 ypa from our backs, which seems unrealistic.  But 2019 Singletary had 5.1 ypa, so maybe it's not too unrealistic. 

 

Spitball conclusion: I don't think it would be a failure if none of the backs crack 1000 yds, but if it's (say) a 60/40 split, one of them better come pretty close."

 

The point I was trying to make is that unless you hypothesize that one back gets almost 70% of the attempts AND achieves >5 ypa, we're unlikely to see a back with >1000 yds unless the # rush attempts increases substantially - and I don't see that happening.  In fact I believe McDermott, Daboll, and Bobby Johnson have all pretty much indicated that change in quality, not quantity, is what

 

If you disagree with this assessment, spell out why - but please don't twist my words and attempt to make my post into an argument about whether the backs or the OL were to blame or some pronouncement on the quality of the OL - that's NOT the point. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, The_Ripster said:

I'm sorry, I'm not sure what your point is? We have a good OLine that is improving every year, BUT it is still 2nd last in the league in the run game?

Not much stat twisting going on here. Those are straight up report card marks. 

 

How are you getting "second to last in the league in the run game"?  You said this also in response to me, but it's not at all justified by the post you were responding to.

 

For example, in order to assess the quality of run blocking based upon run game production, you can't just look at the yards and say "second to last"

You would have to look at the YPA, 4.2, where the Bills were 19th in the league (and Allen, with his 4.1 YPA last season, did not alter this)

[Boxcar]

1 hour ago, ThurmanThomasEnglishMuffin said:

 

Easy Augie. I was mostly agreeing with you. The OL and run blocking scheme is the biggest hurdle the Offense has.

 

IOL should have been a higher draft priority. Do we not agree?

Bills passed on Wyatt Davis (OG) 3x and Creed Humphrey (C) 2x.

Both safe bets to be NFL starters for a decade.

 

I'm not convinced it has been figured out, and they may have passed on some very good OL this draft because of it.

Around week 5 Buffalo went from Power/Man to Zone blocking. It definitely helped Moss.

 

I was right about Moss and wrong about Singletary. Took some time to break it out by game log.

Considering Weeks 1-5 as power blocking (TN game) vs zone blocking (KC and after)

 

Moss:

Week 1-5

C      YDS    AVG    TD

17     48       2.8      0

Week 6-16

95     433    4.6      4

Clearly better, eyes don't lie Augie. Almost double the AVG Per Carry. That is what I saw and the stats prove it.

 

I have been wrong about Singletary though.

Singletary:

Week 1-5

C       YDS   AVG   TD

61      238    3.9     1

Week 6-16

95     449    4.7     1

 

The move to zone blocking helped both backs. This created a better time share between Moss and Singletary.

Moss was rated as one of the best blocking RBs in the NFL by multiple sources.

In a passing scheme you go with the better blocker who has a similar YPC.

Breida is a home run threat in a zone scheme.

Moss is proving to be a blocking beast with a better nose for the end zone.

 

Singletary is still the odd man out, and IOL should have been addressed. Hoping for Lamp to look good.

Did this not coincide with the return of Feliciano, who is a decent run blocker?

 

I also don't understand how you presume to know more than pro scouts. How do you know Humphrey and Davis are locks to have long careers, but Spencer Brown isn't?

Edited July 9, 2021 by Boxcar

[The_Ripster]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You're taking one line out of context and seriously distorting my meaning thereby.  Frankly, when someone is attempting to address a question YOU asked in a realistic and meaningful way, that's somewhat tacky.

 

I am in response to your question "Is it safe to say this season is a make or break year for the current backfield? Assuming it is Singletary, Moss + Breida, would it be a failure if none of them come close to cracking 1000 yards?"

 

We know Allen and the WR are going to "eat" in the passing game, so the number of rush attempts is unlikely to increase substantially.

 

The point I was making is to address your question quoted above: establish where we were last season, and then look at what would be a realistic improvement goal for rush yards, given that we aren't likely to "change our spots" and become a run-first team - and that our backs are unlikely to become Chubb, Jones, or Henry (top backs in the league for YPA).

unless you hypothesize that one back gets almost 70% of the attempts AND achieves >5 ypa, we're unlikely to see a back with >1000 yds unless the # rush attempts increases substantially - and I don't see that happening.  In fact I believe McDermott, Daboll, and Bobby Johnson have all pretty much indicated that change in quality, not quantity, is what

 

If you disagree with this assessment, spell out why - but please don't twist my words and attempt to make my post into an argument about whether the backs or the OL were to blame or some pronouncement on the quality of the OL - that's NOT the point. 

Mate, you're upset because I used the statistics that you posted to bolster my own opinion? Just because I gave you credit to posting the statistics does not thereby mean I was stating you were fully congruent with my own conclusion of what I would consider to be a successful season. 

In fact, with what many of you are saying, improved OLine play in addition to improved rushing from the backfield (aside from Allen), should significantly help team rushing yardage to an acceptable league average despite being a pass first team.  I believe that is an acceptable hypothesis.

I then retorted facetiously with the question, do we have a 2nd to last OLine when it comes to rushing the football because we would be 2nd last in the league without Allen's rushing stats, as I was exaggerating that I do NOT believe the OLine is THAT bad. In fact I think they are pretty good.

Now some excellent points have been made attributing low run success based on poor choice of scheme for RB play style and I can understand how that could be a detrimental issue. 

One would think that if they can reconfigure some of the schemes as well as increase the quality of play from the OLine and the RB's they should greatly improve.

[ThurmanThomasEnglishMuffin]

46 minutes ago, Boxcar said:

Did this not coincide with the return of Feliciano, who is a decent run blocker?

 

I also don't understand how you presume to know more than pro scouts. How do you know Humphrey and Davis are locks to have long careers, but Spencer Brown isn't?

 

Seem to misunderstand the post. I'm a Feliciano fan. Made that clear in multiple posts. But the other OG is a mess and C is not settled. I also clearly pointed out that Moss ran better in a zone scheme. 4.6 > 2.8. That is basic math. My consensus is that better linemen = better balance = better for Josh Allen. Also pretty clear.

 

The Buffalo Bills went from power blocking to zone blocking around week 5 or 6. That is also clear to many people. It helped Moss, maybe Singletary. Moss went from 2.8 YPC to 4.6 YPC. 0 TD to 4 TD. He went from 1:4 carries to 1:1 carries as ratio in that time. I can't explain this easier.

 

Also clear to most people; Spain, a very good power blocker was off the team shortly after the switch to zone blocking, even though Spain was re-signed the prior offseason. Oops. This created a NEED at OG. Obvious right?

 

For the draft:

Humphrey was the consensus #1C in the draft by everyone. He was there at Buffalo's 2nd round pick. The fact Andy Reid took 0 time to take him two picks later says everything. Andy Reid seems to agree with me. Andy Reid is a terrible dad, but knows something about NFL offense. Our starting C is a shot to the head away from being out of the league forever. I worry about his long term health. It may have been wise to draft his replacement now, instead of later. But hey, who wants to plan for the immediate future at round two???

 

Wyatt Davis was a consensus #1 or #2 OG in the draft. He went a pick or two before Buffalo's pick in the 3rd, Ben Cleveland (OG) was also there. Baltimore, who drafts well, took Ben Cleveland the pick right after Buffalo took a project OT. I guess me and Baltimore Ravens GM Eric DeCosta agree too.

 

I also knew ditching Teller was a mistake, as much as sticking with Ford is now. Doesn't take a genius.

Edited July 9, 2021 by ThurmanThomasEnglishMuffin

[GreggTX]

No. CB2 and LG and TE are glaring needs. DE remains a glaring need until proven otherwise. Singletary is not a big concern. We need to use him better. We also need to figure out how to make better use of Breida than Chan did last year.

[ThurmanThomasEnglishMuffin]

31 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

No. CB2 and LG and TE are glaring needs. DE remains a glaring need until proven otherwise. Singletary is not a big concern. We need to use him better. We also need to figure out how to make better use of Breida than Chan did last year.

 

C will become a glaring need when MM has another concussion. (not if, but when)

OG has been a glaring need since the switch from power to zone blocking. (hole now)

 

Breida will do well here as a zone run RB.

 

Buffalo failed even when OC #1 and OG #1 and OG #2 were available in round 2 and/or round 3 in the last draft.

You protect the franchise at all costs. (FAIL)

KC and BAL did though, they took OC #1 (2nd round #32) and OG #2 (2nd round #34) 2 picks and one pick after ours.

 

This is why we can't have nice things.

We took 2 DE in a weak DE class, and 2 OT projects when we needed IOL...

At best 2 of these top 4 picks will see starting time as regulars over the next 5 years.

 

2 of 3 players noted (Humphrey/ Davis/ Cleveland) that Buffalo passed on will be starters and pro-bowlers/ all pros, and we will regret this draft.

Edited July 9, 2021 by ThurmanThomasEnglishMuffin

[iccrewman112]

On 7/7/2021 at 6:02 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I said elsewhere and will say here. 

 

I agree, Josh Allen is probably the most talented rusher on the team. 

That's probably true of a number of other teams: Ravens (Lamar Jackson), Cardinals (Kyler Murray), New England (Cam Newton), Texans (Deshaun Watson), Seattle (Russ Wilson).  Even the Giants! (Daniel Jones) - which, Damn! Daniel -  was NOT supposed to be that way!

 

 

 

Saquon Barkley disagrees.

 

 

[Boxcar]

6 hours ago, ThurmanThomasEnglishMuffin said:

 

Seem to misunderstand the post. I'm a Feliciano fan. Made that clear in multiple posts. But the other OG is a mess and C is not settled. I also clearly pointed out that Moss ran better in a zone scheme. 4.6 > 2.8. That is basic math. My consensus is that better linemen = better balance = better for Josh Allen. Also pretty clear.

 

The Buffalo Bills went from power blocking to zone blocking around week 5 or 6. That is also clear to many people. It helped Moss, maybe Singletary. Moss went from 2.8 YPC to 4.6 YPC. 0 TD to 4 TD. He went from 1:4 carries to 1:1 carries as ratio in that time. I can't explain this easier.

 

Also clear to most people; Spain, a very good power blocker was off the team shortly after the switch to zone blocking, even though Spain was re-signed the prior offseason. Oops. This created a NEED at OG. Obvious right?

 

For the draft:

Humphrey was the consensus #1C in the draft by everyone. He was there at Buffalo's 2nd round pick. The fact Andy Reid took 0 time to take him two picks later says everything. Andy Reid seems to agree with me. Andy Reid is a terrible dad, but knows something about NFL offense. Our starting C is a shot to the head away from being out of the league forever. I worry about his long term health. It may have been wise to draft his replacement now, instead of later. But hey, who wants to plan for the immediate future at round two???

 

Wyatt Davis was a consensus #1 or #2 OG in the draft. He went a pick or two before Buffalo's pick in the 3rd, Ben Cleveland (OG) was also there. Baltimore, who drafts well, took Ben Cleveland the pick right after Buffalo took a project OT. I guess me and Baltimore Ravens GM Eric DeCosta agree too.

 

I also knew ditching Teller was a mistake, as much as sticking with Ford is now. Doesn't take a genius.

 

1. Quinton Spain started two games last year and then barely played until his release. This does not coincide with your timeline.

 

2. Good teams draft busts all the time. The draft is a crapshoot. Your appeals to authority mean nothing. By that post, you're also implying that the Bills have an inferior front office because they didn't take who ESPN told you was the best available player.

 

3. I was implying that the improvement in rushing numbers coincided more with replacing Winters, who sucked, with Feliciano rather than a change in scheme.

[BillsShredder83]

15 hours ago, Boxcar said:

Can anyone explain to me why CEH is so highly regarded? We are crapping on Singletary for having a bad year, and in that bad year he had the same ypc as CEH, around the same number of receptions and slightly less reception yards yet CEH ranks 17 and Singletary 31. I don't get it. People seem to act like he's a lot better than he actually is.

Hes over valued. I'm sure it's draft status, being on an elite team our fans followed most of the year, and the fact he was kryptonite against us. He's a solid back, but certainly not worthy of the praise I've seen on here

[Putin]

Right !

[JaCrispy]

I don’t know what I hate talking about more- our weak running game or our weak TE’s....either way, I see both holding this offense back from reaching it’s true potential...

[Zerovoltz]

@Hapless Bills Fan and others -

 

I can't speak for others, commentators etc...but here are my thoughts on this.

 

CEH didn't have a great season.  He was underwhelming, and perhaps most disappointing was his lack of presence in our passing game.  

 

I'd say, he had a few moments where you could see talent........specifically, if he got moving in some space, he could juke well and break tackles. 

 

I do think that CEH was hurt more than most by having no camp etc last year.  They didn't trust him in the pass/pass blocking game at all.  he was a non factor.  When it mattered, Darrell Williams was on the field.  

 

I think I share the opinion of many KC fans, that CEH, given a full camp, and especially given the revamped line....will have a much better year and look more like a guy who was taken in round 1 and the first RB off the board in his class.  He did NOT look like that last year, but he did have moments where you could see "it".

 

I saw some chatter here about Oline.....and I'd like to bring up again, without trying to sound too much like a KC Homer....that the O line changes are going to be of a huge impact to the KC offense.

 

Just an overview of what to expect, and how that relates to CEH ---->  As mentioned here in other posts, KC is going to likely have 5 new starting O linemen, and the expectation is, this will be the a much better unit than KC has had since Reid arrived and since Mahomes has started.  This matters in the case that KC struggled badly to gain rushing yards on 3rd and short, or goal to go.  Defenses understood this and didn't have to alter much of their d in short yardage....which resulted in KC either running and being stopped on 3rd and short...OR...without the D having to worry about the run....being aligned to defend the short passing game, wich KC resorted to OFTEN because they couldn't expect success running in these situations.  Not being a threat to run, has hurt the O overall as we miss on conversions, and we get jammed up in the Red Zone and at the Goal line for the same reasons...teams sell out to defend the pass because KC couldn't mount any threat at all to gain yards on the ground.  

 

If the line proves to be as adverstised, you will see CEH line up and pick up those yards....and if he is trusted to pass block and run routes...he'll be a big passing game threat as well.....as he was advertised to be.  If you don't see a dynmaic CEH with this line....then call him a bust.  He'll have every shot to succeed this year.

 

 

 

 

[Putin]

3 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

@Hapless Bills Fan and others -

 

I can't speak for others, commentators etc...but here are my thoughts on this.

 

CEH didn't have a great season.  He was underwhelming, and perhaps most disappointing was his lack of presence in our passing game.  

 

I'd say, he had a few moments where you could see talent........specifically, if he got moving in some space, he could juke well and break tackles. 

 

I do think that CEH was hurt more than most by having no camp etc last year.  They didn't trust him in the pass/pass blocking game at all.  he was a non factor.  When it mattered, Darrell Williams was on the field.  

 

I think I share the opinion of many KC fans, that CEH, given a full camp, and especially given the revamped line....will have a much better year and look more like a guy who was taken in round 1 and the first RB off the board in his class.  He did NOT look like that last year, but he did have moments where you could see "it".

 

I saw some chatter here about Oline.....and I'd like to bring up again, without trying to sound too much like a KC Homer....that the O line changes are going to be of a huge impact to the KC offense.

 

Just an overview of what to expect, and how that relates to CEH ---->  As mentioned here in other posts, KC is going to likely have 5 new starting O linemen, and the expectation is, this will be the a much better unit than KC has had since Reid arrived and since Mahomes has started.  This matters in the case that KC struggled badly to gain rushing yards on 3rd and short, or goal to go.  Defenses understood this and didn't have to alter much of their d in short yardage....which resulted in KC either running and being stopped on 3rd and short...OR...without the D having to worry about the run....being aligned to defend the short passing game, wich KC resorted to OFTEN because they couldn't expect success running in these situations.  Not being a threat to run, has hurt the O overall as we miss on conversions, and we get jammed up in the Red Zone and at the Goal line for the same reasons...teams sell out to defend the pass because KC couldn't mount any threat at all to gain yards on the ground.  

 

If the line proves to be as adverstised, you will see CEH line up and pick up those yards....and if he is trusted to pass block and run routes...he'll be a big passing game threat as well.....as he was advertised to be.  If you don't see a dynmaic CEH with this line....then call him a bust.  He'll have every shot to succeed this year.

 

 

 

 

I didn’t read any of it and I hope Chiefs suck 

[RyanC883]

On 7/9/2021 at 7:18 PM, Putin said:

I didn’t read any of it and I hope Chiefs suck 

 

I read it, agreed with most of it, but also hope KC sucks.  

Edited July 13, 2021 by RyanC883

[Big Blitz]

23 hours ago, ThurmanThomasEnglishMuffin said:

 

C will become a glaring need when MM has another concussion. (not if, but when)

OG has been a glaring need since the switch from power to zone blocking. (hole now)

 

Breida will do well here as a zone run RB.

 

Buffalo failed even when OC #1 and OG #1 and OG #2 were available in round 2 and/or round 3 in the last draft.

You protect the franchise at all costs. (FAIL)

KC and BAL did though, they took OC #1 (2nd round #32) and OG #2 (2nd round #34) 2 picks and one pick after ours.

 

This is why we can't have nice things.

We took 2 DE in a weak DE class, and 2 OT projects when we needed IOL...

At best 2 of these top 4 picks will see starting time as regulars over the next 5 years.

 

2 of 3 players noted (Humphrey/ Davis/ Cleveland) that Buffalo passed on will be starters and pro-bowlers/ all pros, and we will regret this draft.

 

 

Don't disagree with this.  Except that they clearly like the Oline group they have.  That's all I can say regarding the decision to pass on a IOL early in the draft - which I thought they'd do.

 

Or a CB.  But they like what they have.  Can't argue with what they've done on O or D except the area where they decided to go all in.

 

I think a lot of things changed when we didn't get Watt.  Did they over Compensate?  I don't know but if those 2 rookies aren't helping in year 1 and if AJ and Oliver don't take big leaps we're going to be in trouble on that D line.  And that's going to make the path to a SB difficult.  You have to be able to get home rushing 4 far more then we do.  Especially against this QB rich AFC.  And that's why I think they decided "we have to load up on that line - if the prospects are worth the pick (value)."  

 

And D line was the biggest weakness on the team IMO going into this off season.  Where would we be or what would we be thinking about the DL right now if the only "addition" was Star?

Edited July 10, 2021 by Big Blitz