Bills are 3 pieces away from Super Bowl

[Inigo Montoya]

I believe the Bills are just three pieces away from being a serious Super Bowl contender.  One of those pieces is already on the roster, one should not be too hard to come by, and the final piece will cost a pretty penny.

 

The first piece is a QB who is able to lead an offense that can score an average of 24 points a week.  Last season the Bills averaged 19.6.  The top six offenses last season were Ravens 33.2, San Fran 29.9,  Saints 28.6, Bucs 28.6, Chiefs 28.2, and Dallas 27.2 points per game.  Obviously averaging 28 points a week from Josh Allen and Co. would be even better, but I think that with our defense coming back essentially intact, we can probably be in every game if the offense can just score 24 points. 

 

Josh Allen needs to take another step and with another year in the League and in this offense, with O-Line stability and more playmakers, the table is set for him to play much better.  He wasn't a turn over machine last year, far from it, he had 9 INTs and 4 lost fumbles for a very respectable 13 turnovers during the regular season.  A QB averaging less than one turn over a game is solid.  Allen protects the ball, now he needs to start putting some more points on the board.

 

The second piece is a solid backfield compliment to Singletary.  Whoever they are is not on the roster yet.  The RB back position is the one position that a rookie can step in from the college ranks and make a difference.  That may be the way to go because the free agent RB market is drying up fast.  Devonta Freeman, Lamar Miller, and Chris Thompson are probably the three best still out there.  Not very inspiring.  That is why I think the Bills go best RB on the board with their pick in the 2nd or 3rd round like J.K. Dobbins out of Ohio State or A.J. Dillon out of Boston College who is a bruiser at 6'0' and 247 lbs.  Our own version of a thunder and lightning with him and Motor in the backfield.  A second RB is still a big hole on this roster and it needs to be addressed if we are going to contend for a championship

 

The third piece is an honest to god EDGE rushing beast who can consistently get after the QB.  This is going to be the expensive part.  The Bills finished 12th in the League last year with 44 sacks.  For reference, the top squad was Pittsburgh with 54.  Watching our defense last year swarm the ball, repeatedly bend but not break, and only give up an incredible 16.2 points per game (behind only the Pats at 14.1), I think many would be happy to just stand pat where we are and that would be a reasonable argument, but I would disagree.  We are trying to beat out 31 other teams to the championship.  We are in a two year window with Allen on his rookie contract and a wide open division.  We need to strike now.

 

I think adding Yannick Ngakoue from the Jags would be the final piece of the puzzle.  It would be expensive and would almost certainly cost us next year's first and eat up a bunch of our remaining cap space this year.  Would Clowney on a 1 year "prove it" deal be a reasonable, less expensive option?  Maybe.  I'd rather go with Ngakoue who by all accounts seems more like a "Process" guy than Clowney.   Ngakoue is only 25 and Clowney is 27 with more of an injury history.  

 

We are not going to draft a rookie EDGE in the 2nd round this year who is going to be an immediate difference maker.  I don't think that anyone we would add with a late 1st round pick next year would have the kind of impact that Ngakoue would.  More to the point, that 1st round pick in next year's draft doesn't help us at all this year when we have a real chance to make a run. Putting a beast like Ngakoue on this defense right now would create the scariest defense in the NFL and would make life very tough on Lamar Jackson and Mahomes who we need to get past to get to the Super Bowl.  Having a stronger defense would provide Allen and the offense with an even bigger cushion this year. 

 

I think now is the time to make these moves. (1) Allen takes a step,  (2) grab a solid RB2,  (3) make a deal for Ngakoue, and the Buffalo Bills will be true contenders for the AFC crown and a Super Bowl berth.  It's time for Beane to push his chips into the middle of the table.

 

Edited March 25, 2020 by Inigo Montoya

[John from Riverside]

So I’m not disagreeing with one and two

 

our defense was super bowl caliber last year 

 

offense needs to be consistently better next year

[Inigo Montoya]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

So I’m not disagreeing with one and two

 

our defense was super bowl caliber last year 

 

offense needs to be consistently better next year

 

I agree with you, last year's D was elite.  I think our D could be historically great with a legitimate edge rusher like Ngakoue.  The Ravens won the Super Bowl in '01 with that amazing defense and Trent Dilfer at QB.  The Ravens didn't even bring him back next year.  For better or worse, our offense is pretty much set right now for 2020 except for the RB2.  If we can put Ngakoue on this D we might not need as much out of Josh Allen and the offense. 

 

Defenses can win championships. The final score of Super Bowl LIII, just the year before last, was Patriots 13 --- LA Rams 3.

[White Linen]

How is our defense coming back essentially intact when 4 players that had significant playing time are not coming back?  There's more changes there than on offense.

[familykwi]

I really thought the 3 steps might be:

1)  Buy a ticket

2)  Arrange a flight & hotel room

3)  Book an Uber

 

Your list certainly is a better read

[Inigo Montoya]

43 minutes ago, White Linen said:

How is our defense coming back essentially intact when 4 players that had significant playing time are not coming back?  There's more changes there than on offense.

 

We lost ;

Zo Alexander   OLB

Jordan Phillips  DT

Shaq Lawson   DE

Kevin Johnson   CB

 

We added;

Mario Addison  OLB

Vernon Butler   DT

Quinton Jefferson  DE

Josh Norman  CB

AJ Klein OLB

Tyler Matakevich  ILB

 

We will also get Harrison Phillips back at DT

 

We did lose some pieces on D, but I think we added some decent replacements, even possible upgrades at those positions.  Some of them have played in McDermott's system before.  I still think our D will be solid this year.

 

Edited March 25, 2020 by Inigo Montoya

[Thurman#1]

IMO it's less a matter of missing pieces than it is that development is needed and the pieces have to come together. 

 

IMO there's very little chance of the Ngakoue move or anything like it, and it's not really needed anyway. Yeah, certainly a great rusher would help us. But they schemed a rush last year and managed with solid guys and the defense was plenty good enough. McDermott has made a superior whole of defensive pieces that shouldn't have added up to anywhere near as good. I expect 'em to maybe try to draft and develop a rusher.

 

This is a team that is more than the sum of it's parts. I don't think "a few parts missing" is the right perspective. More how well will Allen play and will the team come together enough, particularly on offense.

 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

QB development and pass rusher. 

[MJS]

I don't believe that a backup running back will make or break a team's Superbowl chances.

[maryland-bills-fan]

"....The Bills finished 12th in the League last year with 44 sacks.  For reference, the top squad was Pittsburgh with 54..."    That is only a difference of 10 sacks over 16 + games.  Sorry, but I wonder if the extra sack might be balanced out by the opposing offense getting 10 extra big chunk plays by running inside the tackle when the DE took a wide loop, or slipping a TE into that vacated part of the field. or a QB scramble or a QB leaving the pocket & breaking down the pass defense structure to find somebody open.   Maybe we could compare Buffalo and Pittsburg passing defense in 2019. Bills 3123 yards,,, Steelers 3113 yards.  Essentially the same. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/opp.htm

 

A DE can not both strongly rush the passer AND control his gap and area of the field.

[Motorin']

25 minutes ago, MJS said:

I don't believe that a backup running back will make or break a team's Superbowl chances.

It's not really a backup rb the Bills need, but a 1b who can produce for a quarter or half per game. 

 

I also think the Bills OLine needs to improve. 

Edited March 25, 2020 by Motorin'

[billsfan1959]

2 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I believe the Bills are just three pieces away from being a serious Super Bowl contender. 

 

Good post, as always. I agree with your three points. In regard to Allen, he certainly needs to show more improvement and consistency; however, I would also add in the receiver group and Oline to the "consistent 24+ points per game" equation. Edge is certainly the area on defense in which I would love to see an addition of a talent such as Ngakoue. 

[Chaos]

2 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

So I’m not disagreeing with one and two

 

our defense was super bowl caliber last year 

 

offense needs to be consistently better next year

Its a shame last years defense was not playoff win caliber. If they had held on to beat the Texans, apparently they would have led us to victory in the Super Bowl. 

[GunnerBill]

We need better EDGE play. I do not think we have upgraded there. 

[longtimebillsfan]

These three pieces are very doable. With Allen's work ethic, we should expect him to display continued improvement.  I'm not sure he will be a Mahomes in year three, but he will be much closer to where we want him to be.

 

I expect we will sign a veteran RB before the draft.  we will most likely draft a RB in the middle rounds of the draft.

 

If Beane follows what he has done in the past, he will move up in the second round and get the edge rusher he covets.

 

3 for 3.  Super Bowl in 2020!!

[Pete]

2 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

We lost ;

Zo Alexander   OLB

Jordan Phillips  DT

Shaq Lawson   DE

Kevin Johnson   CB

 

We added;

Mario Addison  OLB

Vernon Butler   DT

Quinton Jefferson  DE

Josh Norman  CB

AJ Klein OLB

Tyler Matakevich  ILB

 

We will also get Harrison Phillips back at DT

 

We did lose some pieces on D, but I think we added some decent replacements, even possible upgrades at those positions.  Some of them have played in McDermott's system before.  I still think our D will be solid this year.

 

The only big loss is Lorax IMO.  He's a swiss army knife and oozes process.  It's easy to improve upon the other positons.  On paper we have already IMO

[Chandler#81]

Love the team, but frankly, the biggest piece from last year was the schedule. Its a missing piece now.

[Real McClappy]

NIce post OP. 

 

I'd would add the ? marks to RT and TE as well.  I'm truly pulling for Knox and Co. to take that next step along with Ford at RT. These are still big unknowns at this phase though.

 

Injuries are always a obvious concern to any team as well. I still think the Bills need to get at another solid BU QB, with Josh's playing style he could be lost a few games here and there.

Edited March 25, 2020 by Real McNasty

[Just in Atlanta]

You're right. We need to score a lot more points. 19.6 points a game will not cut it next season. 

 

It's tough for many fans to evaluate line talent. But given Allen's penchant for not getting rid of the ball quickly, our No. 1 piece after Allen is getting a playoff caliber O line. I believe we are multiple pieces away from that right now and will draft O line in Round 2. 

 

We were lacking last season in receiver but improved it immensely with Diggs. Not sure how to feel about TE. There were flashes with Knox. 

 

I'm not concerned with RB at this point. Don't see the validity of drafting this position in the second or even third unless he's an elite Round 1 talent who escaped. 

 

Defense is a bit iffy loosing so many guys but our new adds look nice. Multiple years of data indicate any defense under McD will be above average. Not opposed to a stud edge rusher. But, again, I do believe the biggest piece to send us to the big game is Allen and the O line. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[machine gun kelly]

38 minutes ago, Real McNasty said:

NIce post OP. 

 

I'd would add the ? marks to RT and TE as well.  I'm truly pulling for Knox and Co. to take that next step along with Ford at RT. These are still big unknowns at this phase though.

 

Injuries are always and obvious concern to any team as well. I still think the Bills need to get at another solid BU QB, with Josh's playing style he could be lost a few games here and there.

Inigo, I agree with McNasty in nice post as usual, but believe we really missed when even with these changes had the $ to get Hooper before Cleveland.  Given their disarray, and our current ascension, if we even offered the same $, Hooper would have signed with us.  It’s too early to pull the trigger on another QB, and I know you’re not saying that point.  Agreed, Allen needs to take another step, and my guess is this regime will see out his contract before they get in the QB race again.