There should be a national dialogue in getting back to work

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

It’s not the first time that I misinterpreted things and won’t be the last.  That I promise. 
 

 

 

1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

In regards to Sweden, they are somewhat of anomaly but it will be a fascinating case study and it’s still relatively early in the virus process and there could be valuable tidbits to learn from them if indeed they end up managing this well.

 

The UK, I believe, tried to do this originally, had a non-compliant citizenry of people wanting to go to the local pub and hang out in large groups, and now has more deaths/day than any country in Europe by nearly 2X. The approach can probably work (Sweden, Japan), but only as much as people will do the right things with respect to masks, voluntary distancing, extra hygiene...and once available, testing like mad and probably tracing to bring it well in hand. 

Edited April 12, 2020 by shoshin

[reddogblitz]

5 hours ago, Artful Dodger said:

 

I actually agree with you.  If people are going to die anyway, we might has well have a working economy.   We can't all sit around for an entire next year waiting for a vaccine to be developed.   So once we've got enough masks and ventilators and hospital beds, then people should gradually get back to work and practice social distancing as much as possible, recognizing that some people are going to get sick and some will die.  But once you've  had the virus and survived, you've got immunity, and then you can resume living a normal life.

 

I just don't understand why so many people celebrate a plateauing in the number of cases as some kind of major victory.   If you can't leave your home, it's not much of a victory.

 

I don't think this is known yet.  Will it be like chicken pox immunity?  Get it once never get it again.  Or will it be like flu immunity?  I heard Dr. Bird say last week or maybe the week before that if you get the flu, you get some immunity but you might catch it again but it won't be as bad.

 

I hear a lot of people running with this theory, but is not a given.

 

If you have more definitive information please share.

[Taro T]

54 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

 

 

The UK, I believe, tried to do this originally, had a non-compliant citizenry of people wanting to go to the local pub and hang out in large groups, and now has more deaths/day than any country in Europe by nearly 2X. The approach can probably work (Sweden, Japan), but only as much as people will do the right things with respect to masks, voluntary distancing, extra hygiene...and once available, testing like mad and probably tracing to bring it well in hand. 

 

Personally, my expectation is that we've and we'll continue to make this overblown by a bit, but due to our tendency as a whole to ignore guidelines, doubt that we wouldn't be royally ####ed without having shut stuff down.

 

UK tried to use common sense with this trusting the citizenry not to be idjits, but it seems that last part was the unrealistic part of it.

 

Still expect we'll be able to open back up sooner than later, but people will need to try to do the right thing on their own or all this tracking bull#### that people are proposing will actually happen and then we'll be ####ed way worse than we were.  Seeing how bad NYC got hit and NO likely will has to be kept as a reminder of how not looking out for each other when stuff reopens will put us back where we were/are.  (Because we can repeat that if we aren't smart.)

 

We really are at a very real cross roads for keeping our freedom.  Don't let the fascists or communists simply take it from us.  Practice good hygiene and stay home from work if you're sick.  

 

Oh, and thinking China needs to forgive about $2T worth of our debt and probably a comparable amount around the rest of the world too.  They've got the reserves to cover it and maybe next time their government will get their heads out of their arses rather than just let it get out into the world.

[snafu]

On 4/9/2020 at 8:46 AM, SoCal Deek said:

Excellent discussion Foxx. You have to remember that there’s a social aspect to work, shopping, sports, school and especially worship. While it’s futuristic to envision a world where we all sit in our homes and have drones plop everything at our front door, I’m guessing it’d be a pretty miserable existence. Consider dating for example. How’s anyone going to get together if the government says you can’t meet anyone in public? 
 

This isn’t the first pandemic by a long shot...and it won’t be the last. (WWI was so horrible that it was dubbed the ‘war to end all wars’ but look how that turned out.)

 

On 4/9/2020 at 9:09 AM, Foxx said:

well, now you're getting into the deep end of the pool.

 

it doesn't have to be a bad thing. it can be all about the continued evolution of mankind. look at what happened with the industrial revolution, it freed man to not work as hard, to pursue other more worthwhile endeavours. the same is happening with the transition to the Information Age, though there are surely growing pains, we are freeing man up more than ever. the coming age of Technocracy is perhaps the most scarey and one that will have the most prolonged growing pains but if implemented in the right ways, will be the most rewarding for mankind. my problem with the coming technocracy is that the elite are going to use it to further cement their stranglehold on the plebs (you and i). it doesn't have to be that way though, i'm not sure how we prevent it.

 

choke me in the shallow waters...

 

On 4/9/2020 at 9:14 AM, SoCal Deek said:

Thanks. The deep end of the pool is a way better place than the endless blame game and name calling in the other threads. Again, I see this is yet another evolutionary challenge. There’ll be some changes in society for sure but I highly doubt they’ll override mankind’s natural desire to socialize.  The technology examples you cite gave people more time for leisure. But what happens when we’re instructed not to ‘leisure’? 

 

On 4/9/2020 at 9:32 AM, Foxx said:

for one thing, they will never be able to mandate socialization out of existence. only man will do that and we have been trending in that direction now for a few years. kids no longer go out and play like they used to. i can't tell you the amount of nice Spring, Summer, Fall days that i could not believe there was noone outside enjoying the fresh air doing something, anything. look at you an i, we are no different right now, sitting here on the 'net, conversing.

 

perhaps part of that evolution means a change of intercourse. of course i don't mean that all physical interaction goes away, but again, it is and has been changing.

 

 

I’m not one for change — at least not the drastic change that this social distancing has brought on.

And I’ll speak for all my kids that they’re going 100% nuts by not being in school and socializing. 

People need face to face interaction — even simple interactions like grocery shopping and commenting to a total stranger about the quality of the produce that day.

 

We can and will open up as a society without tracking and tracing. It will take awhile and require people to be diligent and honest. Maybe that’s a pipe dream, but it is what I’d greatly prefer to go with. 

 

Happy Easter!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Boatdrinks said:

The New York Times; the print version of CNN. 

 

CNN is the video version of the NYT. 

 

 

[Foxx]

54 minutes ago, snafu said:

 

 

 

 

 

I’m not one for change — at least not the drastic change that this social distancing has brought on.

And I’ll speak for all my kids that they’re going 100% nuts by not being in school and socializing. 

People need face to face interaction — even simple interactions like grocery shopping and commenting to a total stranger about the quality of the produce that day.

 

We can and will open up as a society without tracking and tracing. It will take awhile and require people to be diligent and honest. Maybe that’s a pipe dream, but it is what I’d greatly prefer to go with. 

 

Happy Easter!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CNN is the video version of the NYT. 

 

 

good to see you, man. Happy Easter to you!

[Artful Dodger]

1 hour ago, reddogblitz said:

 

I don't think this is known yet.  Will it be like chicken pox immunity?  Get it once never get it again.  Or will it be like flu immunity?  I heard Dr. Bird say last week or maybe the week before that if you get the flu, you get some immunity but you might catch it again but it won't be as bad.

 

I hear a lot of people running with this theory, but is not a given.

 

If you have more definitive information please share.

 

I don't have any more information.  But if it's not true, then we're royally effed until they develop a vaccine.

[Boatdrinks]

24 minutes ago, Artful Dodger said:

 

I don't have any more information.  But if it's not true, then we're royally effed until they develop a vaccine.

It may not be true. If it’s not though, we’re not effed by any means. Estimates are that anywhere from 25 to 40% of people with Coronavirus are asymptomatic. The vast majority ( probably in the high 90% range) of people will recover. It’s not going to wipe out a huge swath of the population. There will eventually be a vaccine, but there will likely be effective treatments long before that. 

[3rdnlng]

The question has been repeatedly asked regarding when we should go back to at least somewhat normal. Pretend that we never had the severe predictions of hospitalizations and deaths and what was predicted instead was what is being predicted now. Would we have shut down like we did? The time to go back to work and living is at the point where we would not have shut down in the first place. Give it a couple extra weeks and maybe keep NYC or any other hotbed pretty much locked up and get back to work based on that criteria. 

[shoshin]

9 hours ago, 3rdnlng said:

The question has been repeatedly asked regarding when we should go back to at least somewhat normal. Pretend that we never had the severe predictions of hospitalizations and deaths and what was predicted instead was what is being predicted now. Would we have shut down like we did? The time to go back to work and living is at the point where we would not have shut down in the first place. Give it a couple extra weeks and maybe keep NYC or any other hotbed pretty much locked up and get back to work based on that criteria. 

What do you think the daily death rate would be if we didn’t lockdown? We peaked at 2K/day in a lockdown situation. At lest double to quadruple seems right. And it would go on longer. The numbers get really bad quickly. 

Edited April 13, 2020 by shoshin

[3rdnlng]

21 minutes ago, shoshin said:

What do you think the daily death rate would be if we didn’t lockdown? We peaked at 2K/day in a lockdown situation. At lest double to quadruple seems right. And it would go on longer. The numbers get really bad quickly. 

I haven't claimed that 2000, 20,000, 200 or 2 are acceptable. I was clearly addressing a philosophical approach as to how to consider getting back to something close to normal. 

[shoshin]

2 hours ago, 3rdnlng said:

I haven't claimed that 2000, 20,000, 200 or 2 are acceptable. I was clearly addressing a philosophical approach as to how to consider getting back to something close to normal. 

Somewhere there’s an acceptable deaths and hospitalization number, not that I expect or would want anyone in government to state it but it exists. To reopen the economy, our peak of 2000/day until vaccine is too high for deaths. At 100-200, it’s probably an acceptable risk. (Horrible conversation but it’s happening somewhere.)
 

Right now we are probably looking at 4000+ per day easy without any restrictions/testing/tracking. 

Edited April 13, 2020 by shoshin

[B-Man]

 

 

Cuomo says he wants New York 'to reopen as soon as possible'

Hill [Washington DC], by John Bowden

Original Article

 

 

 

.

[Magox]

21 hours ago, B-Man said:

 

 

As if Biden really contributed to that article.

 

Voting for Biden is voting for a generic Democrat.  If he were to win, he wouldn't be the one making the decisions, it would be his unelected staff. 

[shoshin]

37 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

As if Biden really contributed to that article.

 

Voting for Biden is voting for a generic Democrat.  If he were to win, he wouldn't be the one making the decisions, it would be his unelected staff. 

I read that today. Generic and non-specific. Nothingburger. 
 

Several lead stories today forecasting very slow economic recovery. This makes sense. Some of it may be fear but I also just don’t see companies jumping back to capacity quickly. My clients who just fired 30+% of their workforce won’t be getting 100% of their orders back for a while. 
 

I am watching the university scene with interest. I am guessing this is going to be a catastrophic year for private colleges. It’s not easy to get 70K/year commitments from families right now. 

Edited April 13, 2020 by shoshin

[Magox]

21 minutes ago, shoshin said:

I read that today. Generic and non-specific. Nothingburger. 
 

Several lead stories today forecasting very slow economic recovery. This makes sense. Some of it may be fear but I also just don’t see companies jumping back to capacity quickly. My clients who just fired 30+% of their workforce won’t be getting 100% of their orders back for a while. 
 

I am watching the university scene with interest. I am guessing this is going to be a catastrophic year for private colleges. It’s not easy to get 70K/year commitments from families right now. 

 

Yeah, it won't be a V recovery.

[Magox]

2 hours ago, B-Man said:

 

 

Cuomo says he wants New York 'to reopen as soon as possible'

Hill [Washington DC], by John Bowden

Original Article

 

 

 

.

 

Interesting meeting of the governors led by Cuomo.   Almost seems like a power play of sorts.

[B-Man]

 

 

 

SHOCKING NEWS FROM THE WORLD OF SCIENCE:

 

 Analysis Reveals Most US Jobs Simply Can’t Be Done From Home.

 

 

 

 

.

[RochesterRob]

8 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

Interesting meeting of the governors led by Cuomo.   Almost seems like a power play of sorts.

  Meh.  Cuomo can say that all he wants but it is an entirely different matter to actually reopen ASAP.  It sounds like he is leaving himself plenty of room to put off a restart for at least the next few weeks.  I still think entertainment venues and nonessential shopping stay closed for quite a while.

2 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

 

SHOCKING NEWS FROM THE WORLD OF SCIENCE:

 

 Analysis Reveals Most US Jobs Simply Can’t Be Done From Home.

 

 

 

 

.

  Actual illness along with fear is hurting meat processing.  This in turn hurts farmers.  

Edited April 13, 2020 by RochesterRob

[Deranged Rhino]

8 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

Interesting meeting of the governors led by Cuomo.   Almost seems like a power play of sorts.

 

Yup. He wants to get ahead of Trump... 

(which I'm thinking is what Trump wants)

[B-Man]

 

Planning the Great Escape from House Arrest—and From Communist China.

 

 

FTA:

 

Perhaps nothing will prove more difficult to salvage from the train wreck than individual rights, the fundamental building block of subsidiarity, which are being eroded at an unprecedented rate. The need to track the whereabouts of literally every citizen in the name of "contact tracing" the public means government will demand to know exactly where you've been and who you've ever met with. Scrupulous records will be kept on the public's biometric profile to make offices habitable again. 

 

 

.