There should be a national dialogue in getting back to work

[SoCal Deek]

2 minutes ago, ALF said:

“Currently our neighbourhood is an epidemic-free community - it’s been 45 days so far, so we don’t have this situation,” she said.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china/chinas-wuhan-to-keep-testing-residents-as-coronavirus-lockdown-eases-idUSKCN21S0FV
 

This will be the place to keep a eye on

Yeah, right! And I remember when Baghdad Bob reported there was absolutely no bombing going on.

[Chef Jim]

40 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Was that really the chronology? Somehow I would’ve had Supertramp after Queen, not before....but you may be right.

 

Me too.  But I looked it up.  They were right about the exact same time.  Mid to late 70's.  Crime of the Century was probably the album the put ST on the map in 1974.  Yes Breakfast in America was 1979 which put them mainstream.  Queen's Day at the Races came out in 1976.  

 

Keep in mind the only reason I said that is the reason ST disappeared was because I listened to Dreamer that @ScotSHO posted and thought "hmmm Queeen."

 

 

 

[123719bwiqrb]

10 minutes ago, shoshin said:

You think that from December to May, over 75% of the country will have gotten Covid19?

 

So this is the most contagious disease of all time by a fantastic margin never before seen in history? 
 

I am guessing you don’t work at the CDC. 

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that you don't work for the CDC either.  Not sure what that means on a football BS talkie board?

 

But you did say the most important part - it "is the most contagious disease of all time".  By that theory, it should have ripped around the world in no time.

 

Like I said, it is a working theory.  Just like the current media narrative information out there.  Has the media, CDC, President, or Joe Biden's wife said how many people have it, definitively? 

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, Chef Jim said:

 

Me too.  But I looked it up.  They were right about the exact same time.  Mid to late 70's.  Crime of the Century was probably the album the put ST on the map in 1974.  Yes Breakfast in America was 1979 which put them mainstream.  Queen's Day at the Races came out in 1976.  

 

Keep in mind the only reason I said that is the reason ST disappeared was because I listened to Dreamer that @ScotSHO posted and thought "hmmm Queeen."

 

 

 

Thanks Chef. And now you see what it’s come down to. A month of sequestration and we’ve been reduced to debating late ‘70s pop/rock bands. Give it another two weeks and we’ll be scratching our heads over whether Wade should’ve started Rob over Doug.....oh wait, that’s the other chat room! 

[shoshin]

9 minutes ago, ALF said:

 China's Wuhan to keep testing residents as coronavirus lockdown eases

 

WUHAN, China (Reuters) - China’s Wuhan city, where the global coronavirus pandemic began, is still testing residents regularly despite relaxing its tough two-month lockdown, with the country wary of a rebound in cases even as it sets its sights on normalising the economy.

 

“We carry out comprehensive health checks everyday and keep detailed records of their health condition,” she said, adding that there is no likelihood of asymptomatic cases in her community.

 

“Currently our neighbourhood is an epidemic-free community - it’s been 45 days so far, so we don’t have this situation,” she said.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china/chinas-wuhan-to-keep-testing-residents-as-coronavirus-lockdown-eases-idUSKCN21S0FV
 

This will be the place to keep a eye on

I wish I could believe anything out of China. But I hope this is true and shows a path forward. 

[Chef Jim]

46 minutes ago, ScotSHO said:

 

Ahh yes.  I was too young during this music time period, but I can definitely relate as I was a Metallica/Anthrax/Pantera/etc. metal head growing up.  I had to reject liking any "hair metal" band, even if their music sounded great.  Poison, Crue, Ratt, Bon Jovi, nuh-uh.

 

I was living in LA from 1984-1991 and the hair band scene was actually very cool.  I remember driving by the Troubadour every day for work and seeing this band on the marque:  Guns n' Roses and thinking "cool name".  And I'll never forget where I was when I first heard Welcome to the Jungle.  I immediately fell in love with it.  The DJ comes on and says "that was Welcome to the Jungle from Guns n' Roses debut album Appetite for Destruction."  I was "get...the....*****....out!!"

 

I love when "younger" people look at me (I'll be 59 in a couple days) weird when I tell them how much I like that music.  Uhhh dude I was 27 when Appetite came out 22 with Kill 'em All came out. 

[shoshin]

1 minute ago, ScotSHO said:

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that you don't work for the CDC either.  Not sure what that means on a football BS talkie board?

 

But you did say the most important part - it "is the most contagious disease of all time".  By that theory, it should have ripped around the world in no time.

 

Like I said, it is a working theory.  Just like the current media narrative information out there.  Has the media, CDC, President, or Joe Biden's wife said how many people have it, definitively? 

You said over 75% of Americans have it in a 6 month span if I give you through May. That would dwarf the spread of any known disease ever. It’s bold. Not too likely, but bold. 
 

Why do you think, out of curiousity, we are getting such a high percentage of negative tests back? Are those part of the 25% that don’t have it and everyone untested does have it?

 

I ask you to question your amped up and unreasonable numbers. 

[Chef Jim]

3 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Thanks Chef. And now you see what it’s come down to. A month of sequestration and we’ve been reduced to debating late ‘70s pop/rock bands. Give it another two weeks and we’ll be scratching our heads over whether Wade should’ve started Rob over Doug.....oh wait, that’s the other chat room! 

 

Dude I've been busier than ever.  I'm working 12 hour days, working today and tomorrow.  I had 21 zoom meetings this week.  I'm beat. 

[123719bwiqrb]

1 minute ago, shoshin said:

You said over 75% of Americans have it in a 6 month span if I give you through May. That would dwarf the spread of any known disease ever. It’s bold. Not too likely, but bold. 
 

Why do you think, out of curiousity, we are getting such a high percentage of negative tests back? Are those part of the 25% that don’t have it and everyone untested does have it?

 

I ask you to question your amped up and unreasonable numbers. 

 

Are those tests representative of the US population?

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, Chef Jim said:

 

Dude I've been busier than ever.  I'm working 12 hour days, working today and tomorrow.  I had 21 zoom meetings this week.  I'm beat. 

Likewise busy. I go into an empty office building in the morning and then work from home in the afternoon. We’re using the Webex platform. The best thing about this mess is that you can finally drive on the SoCal freeways again! 

[shoshin]

3 minutes ago, ScotSHO said:

 

Are those tests representative of the US population?

No. Those are people who had symptoms or are in high risk jobs. So if you expect 75% of people are already infected, those tests should be running much much higher. Yet they are not. 

[Chef Jim]

3 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Likewise busy. I go into an empty office building in the morning and then work from home in the afternoon. We’re using the Webex platform. The best thing about this mess is that you can finally drive on the SoCal freeways again! 

 

Yes I'm in the office three days a week.  Pick up mail and process biz for my team.  I really hope they all appreciate that.  And I was just thinking as I was driving home Thursday at 6pm "when this is over I'm going to hate the ***** freeways again."  

[123719bwiqrb]

5 minutes ago, shoshin said:

No. Those are people who had symptoms or are in high risk jobs. So if you expect 75% of people are already infected, those tests should be running much much higher. Yet they are not. 

I think what we (or at least what I am thinking) is without good data, we are just guessing.  I'd love to get 300M tests out there, but I on't see that happening for 12 months

[Magox]

31 minutes ago, ALF said:

 China's Wuhan to keep testing residents as coronavirus lockdown eases

 

WUHAN, China (Reuters) - China’s Wuhan city, where the global coronavirus pandemic began, is still testing residents regularly despite relaxing its tough two-month lockdown, with the country wary of a rebound in cases even as it sets its sights on normalising the economy.

 

“We carry out comprehensive health checks everyday and keep detailed records of their health condition,” she said, adding that there is no likelihood of asymptomatic cases in her community.

 

“Currently our neighbourhood is an epidemic-free community - it’s been 45 days so far, so we don’t have this situation,” she said.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china/chinas-wuhan-to-keep-testing-residents-as-coronavirus-lockdown-eases-idUSKCN21S0FV
 

This will be the place to keep a eye on

 

Why should anyone trust anything coming from China?   They have discredited themselves and the only way that any government should believe what they have to say is if they can somehow verify it for themselves.

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

I loved that album! Played it over and over again. What ever happened to those guys?

Their material got progressively worse, then the main singer split off from the other guys. That about did it for Supertramp. 

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

Terrible idea.   Hopefully they reject this abomination of a proposal.

I agree completely.  I traveled out of the country in late Jan until almost mid February and passed through JFK both ways. I may have been exposed, don’t recall any major symptoms though. Anyway, what if I wasn’t ? The government told  me to stay home so I didn’t get or spread Corona, but now they’re going to give hall passes only to those who had it ? WTF ? Can they just give me the virus so I can get a hall pass and not a scarlet letter ? 

[shoshin]

36 minutes ago, ScotSHO said:

I think what we (or at least what I am thinking) is without good data, we are just guessing.  I'd love to get 300M tests out there, but I on't see that happening for 12 months

 

 

This is just PA, but *most* of the tests (83%) are running negative. And those would be people who are getting tested because they had symptoms or are in high risk jobs so you would expect them to have a much higher rate of positives than your 75%, yet the positives among that group is only 17%. The 75% number doesn't hold water for a lot of reasons. I find it strange that you and others try to minimize this. It's real and it's serious.  

 

I say this from the perspective of someone who is desperate to reactivate the economy. Personally and as a citizen, I am desperate to do this. But we need to do it with some foresight and planning to avoid a much worse outbreak or future shutdowns. I'm not sure we can but I'd like to give it a try. 

Edited April 11, 2020 by shoshin

[ALF]

34 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

Why should anyone trust anything coming from China?   They have discredited themselves and the only way that any government should believe what they have to say is if they can somehow verify it for themselves.

 

No one should trust China . Have the CDC  and WHO  go there to verify.  I know WHO lost credibility also , now they have to rebuild their trust if they want funding.

[123719bwiqrb]

8 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

 

This is just PA, but *most* of the tests (83%) are running negative. And those would be people who are getting tested because they had symptoms or are in high risk jobs so you would expect them to have a much higher rate of positives than your 75%, yet the positives among that group is only 17%. The 75% number doesn't hold water for a lot of reasons. I find it strange that you and others try to minimize this. It's real and it's serious.  

 

I say this from the perspective of someone who is desperate to reactivate the economy. Personally and as a citizen, I am desperate to do this. But we need to do it with some foresight and planning to avoid a much worse outbreak or future shutdowns. I'm not sure we can but I'd like to give it a try. 

 

These are tests of active cases!  Not people that had it for 2 weeks and self resolved.  This data reveals very little.

 

I agree we are in a serious conundrum.  Lack of both tests are what is going to ultimately kill the american dream.  It's over without mass testing in a few weeks.

[shoshin]

47 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

Why should anyone trust anything coming from China?   They have discredited themselves and the only way that any government should believe what they have to say is if they can somehow verify it for themselves.

 

So much of what we knew initially came from China. Then Italy (mostly) lead the way with data. Now it's us. The only good news is that with every country trying a different approach, we are getting a fast look at what works well in treatment and social measures. If you take a look at the UK, which was open way longer than the rest of Europe, they are getting bombed now in deaths. Boris Johnson (who I personally hope is doing well) looks to have made a bad choice keeping things open. The UK's deaths/day is already higher than Italy ever got. 

 

Sweden is doing well but that's probably a demographic blip where something like 50% of their U30 population lives alone, and they tend to socially distance a little more naturally, plus they live more spread out. 

 

Still can't explain some places: Japan (!!!), Mexico, Brazil, India. Possibly the latter 3 have bad data but you would think given population density, those would be huge outbreak centers. And Japan with 38 million people in Tokyo and an aging population...same, even given their culture of distance and cleanliness.

 

My armchair CDC opinion is that come June 1, we should act in behavior like the Japanese (masks, distancing, no handshakes etc), trace and test like the Koreans if we have the capability, protect the older populations by asking them to stay home, and keep gatherings of over [a small number...20?] to a bare minimum. Then if cases remain under control, start raising that minimal number gradually. I don't love the idea of the certificates but I would have to know more what that line of thinking is. If I could flash my digital certificate that I was either immune or had a clean test in the last 2 days and that allowed me to go into a crowded restaurant, I might be OK with that. It's better than the restaurant staying empty. But if we're saying anyone without a negative test or immunity has to stay home, that would be troubling. 

 

5 minutes ago, ScotSHO said:

 

I agree we are in a serious conundrum.  Lack of both tests are what is going to ultimately kill the american dream.  It's over without mass testing in a few weeks.

 

I agree with this. We can brag all we want about the progress we have made, and that's legitimate, but until the tests are as easy to get as a tic tac, we need magnitudes more. Daily tests for many jobs (people who come into lots of contact with others like nursing home workers) should be a requirement if/once we have the capability. 

Edited April 11, 2020 by shoshin