GG Posted June 29, 2020 Posted June 29, 2020 32 minutes ago, Magox said: I rarely look at one indicator to conclude a view. It's just a data point a positive one at that to support that there are green shoots. With that said, and we've discussed it before there are cross currents at play. This just happens to be a potential positive indicator. I'm not onboard just yet. To me it's swayed by people running from big cities. 1
Buffalo_Gal Posted June 29, 2020 Posted June 29, 2020 15 minutes ago, GG said: I'm not onboard just yet. To me it's swayed by people running from big cities. My son said all his friends are in flee-mode. Early 30s, few are married, only one has kids. If those people are moving out to the ‘burbs, I’d guess a lot of people who do have small children are making the dash.
Magox Posted June 30, 2020 Author Posted June 30, 2020 The question is will it continue with some of the economic pauses and pullbacks? But it goes to show you on just about every economic indicator that the rebound so far has been vastly over performing expectations 1
plenzmd1 Posted June 30, 2020 Posted June 30, 2020 17 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said: My son said all his friends are in flee-mode. Early 30s, few are married, only one has kids. If those people are moving out to the ‘burbs, I’d guess a lot of people who do have small children are making the dash. Hmm, certainly not seeing that in Richmond Va or the District as of yet, at least in terms of supply and pricing in the cities. One person in our building in DC just sold above asking in less than 4 days..all done virtually. We are about 1 mile from White House. In Richmond, we were hoping to make the switch from burbs to the Fan district, which contains Monument Ave..where the protests are all going on..nothing for sale. Conversely, nothing is selling in our burb neighborhood right now...and pricing dropping. Anecdotal for sure, and not Manhattan or Brooklyn if that is where your son lives...but sure wish it would happen here!!!!!
RochesterRob Posted June 30, 2020 Posted June 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Magox said: The question is will it continue with some of the economic pauses and pullbacks? But it goes to show you on just about every economic indicator that the rebound so far has been vastly over performing expectations I don't see how that there can not be ebbs and flows in this. Plus the view on the economy is peripheral. If you see nothing but good then your opinion will be optimistic. As pointed out by my college stats prof many years ago surveys and polls can be skewed. What I see in my view in WNY is restaurants that are now up for sale and closed complexes such as casinos and indoor malls that employ thousands of people. Small auto lots that had very little income for a couple of months are now getting uncomfortable calls from creditors who are no longer interested in "we are all in this together" euphoria. Their bills are now getting uncomfortably behind so now they have to shake the tree even though there may not be enough money on it to catch up.
Magox Posted June 30, 2020 Author Posted June 30, 2020 13 minutes ago, RochesterRob said: I don't see how that there can not be ebbs and flows in this. Plus the view on the economy is peripheral. If you see nothing but good then your opinion will be optimistic. As pointed out by my college stats prof many years ago surveys and polls can be skewed. What I see in my view in WNY is restaurants that are now up for sale and closed complexes such as casinos and indoor malls that employ thousands of people. Small auto lots that had very little income for a couple of months are now getting uncomfortable calls from creditors who are no longer interested in "we are all in this together" euphoria. Their bills are now getting uncomfortably behind so now they have to shake the tree even though there may not be enough money on it to catch up. The economic data that is coming out is very encouraging. But as you and I have discussed a few times before, I do see lots of layoffs continuing to happen as good economic news comes in as well. At some point the economic data will stop over performing expectations. Crosscurrents is the theme that I'm sticking with.
RochesterRob Posted June 30, 2020 Posted June 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Magox said: The economic data that is coming out is very encouraging. But as you and I have discussed a few times before, I do see lots of layoffs continuing to happen as good economic news comes in as well. At some point the economic data will stop over performing expectations. Crosscurrents is the theme that I'm sticking with. The layoffs are real cold buckets of water that will push attention away from websites and associations that have an agenda. The expected layoffs in government if they have started are not in full swing at this point. Can't have layoffs indefinitely and not affect the economy of an area. I just don't see the economy of WNY as being real rosy at this point in time which is the primary worry for me or anybody I know. 1
shoshin Posted June 30, 2020 Posted June 30, 2020 17 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said: My son said all his friends are in flee-mode. Early 30s, few are married, only one has kids. If those people are moving out to the ‘burbs, I’d guess a lot of people who do have small children are making the dash. I have heard this trend and am hopeful: We are about sell our 'burb house and move into the city in the next 6 months. Happy to swap out properties at a lower price.
3rdnlng Posted June 30, 2020 Posted June 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Magox said: The economic data that is coming out is very encouraging. But as you and I have discussed a few times before, I do see lots of layoffs continuing to happen as good economic news comes in as well. At some point the economic data will stop over performing expectations. Crosscurrents is the theme that I'm sticking with. Go into a Walmart or a Dick's Sporting Goods store and look at the shelves. Walmart basically has no TVs for sale or bicycles or fishing equipment. I wanted to outfit my two GS with bass fishing equipment and the shelves were pretty bare at both places. All I could do is scrape together a couple "starter kits". I noticed that Walmart had an abundance of fans and they were made here in the USA. Looks to me like there is a great opportunity for domestic manufacturers to maybe at least partially fill the gap. 1
Reality Check Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/book-your-dome-yoga-bubbles-social-distancing-world Yoga classes will never be the same.
B-Man Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 Two Americas: Risk-Tolerant vs Zero-Risk — Will One Ruin the Other? There really are two Americas: The Risk-Tolerant America, and Zero-Risk America. Before we get to that, however, I’m afraid I have some very good news for you: Americans are catching the Wuhan virus at record rates. Now, if you’re a card-carrying member of Zero-Risk America, your panties just spontaneously wadded. Those of us who live in Risk Tolerant America — and if you’re a regular VodkaPundit or PJMedia reader, I’m guessing that includes you — understand that this is very good news indeed. Still, some details would be helpful in order to explain our Two Americas. Read the whole thing 1
Magox Posted July 1, 2020 Author Posted July 1, 2020 Quote More than half of U.S. manufacturers reported better-than-expected expansion in June, the first time that has happened since the coronavirus pandemic locked down the domestic economy. The Institute for Supply Manufacturing survey showed that 52.6% of companies said their businesses are growing. That’s up from May’s 43.1% and a 41.5% trough in April that came a month after shelter-in-place orders took much of the nation’s productive capacity offline. productive capacity offline. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 49.5% reading. “As predicted, the growth cycle has returned after three straight months of COVID-19 disruptions,” said Timothy R. Fiore, ISM chair. “Demand, consumption and inputs are reaching parity and are positioned for a demand-driven expansion cycle as we enter the second half of the year.” Better than expected Manufacturing report. 2
Magox Posted July 2, 2020 Author Posted July 2, 2020 Huge Employment Report! Quote Nonfarm payrolls jumped by 4.8 million in June and the unemployment rate fell to 11.1% as the U.S. continued its reopening from the coronavirus pandemic, the Labor Department said Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting a 2.9 million increase and a jobless rate of 12.4%. The report was released a day earlier than usual due to the July Fourth U.S. holiday. The recovery is certainly over performing expectations on just about every metric. The only one where it continue to slightly under perform are weekly jobless claims, which goes back to the cross currents that I have mentioned a few times. Now that we have some rollbacks and pauses, I wouldn't expect the gains to increase from this huge blow out 4.8 million number. My guess is that the gains from here moving forward will be much more tempered. With that said, the hole that we have to dig ourselves out of are MUCH MUCH less shallow than where we believed we'd be in the beginning of July. There were economists who didn't believe we'd reach 11% unemployment until the end of the year. I had predicted that we could be at around 10% by the end of the year, I would say based off of what we are seeing, We could possibly be at around 7-8% by then. With that said, I do think it's going to get a lot tougher pretty soon. 3
B-Man Posted July 2, 2020 Posted July 2, 2020 RECOVERY SUMMER! Record jobs gain of 4.8 million in June smashes expectations; unemployment rate falls to 11.1%. Democrats, media hardest hit. 1
Orlando Buffalo Posted July 3, 2020 Posted July 3, 2020 On 6/30/2020 at 10:42 AM, plenzmd1 said: Hmm, certainly not seeing that in Richmond Va or the District as of yet, at least in terms of supply and pricing in the cities. One person in our building in DC just sold above asking in less than 4 days..all done virtually. We are about 1 mile from White House. In Richmond, we were hoping to make the switch from burbs to the Fan district, which contains Monument Ave..where the protests are all going on..nothing for sale. Conversely, nothing is selling in our burb neighborhood right now...and pricing dropping. Anecdotal for sure, and not Manhattan or Brooklyn if that is where your son lives...but sure wish it would happen here!!!!! My prediction is that only the very high population areas will have a negative impact(NYC, SF, SEA maybe a few others) with most other places staying neutral. I initially hoped it would cause values to drop along coast in FL but there is no indication of that happening according to a real estate agent I spoke with this week. I will admit I had a very different prediction in March.
B-Man Posted July 3, 2020 Posted July 3, 2020 Keep telling me that it's about safety. The State of California has banned singing in any indoor religious services, even with masks on, under new guidelines issued by the Department of Public Health to control the spread of the coronavirus. The new guidelines state Even with adherence to physical distancing, convening in a congregational setting of multiple different households to practice a personal faith carries a relatively higher risk for widespread transmission of the COVID-19 virus, and may result in increased rates of infection, hospitalization, and death, especially among more vulnerable populations. In particular, activities such as singing and chanting negate the risk- reduction achieved through six feet of physical distancing. *Places of worship must therefore discontinue singing and chanting activities and limit indoor attendance to 25% of building capacity or a maximum of 100 attendees, whichever is lower. Local Health Officers are advised to consider appropriate limitations on outdoor attendance capacities, factoring their jurisdiction’s key COVID- 19 health indicators. At a minimum, outdoor attendance should be limited naturally through implementation of strict physical distancing measures of a minimum of six feet between attendees from different households, in addition to other relevant protocols within this document. California had begun re-opening places of worship a few weeks ago, as the state had succeeded in slowing the spread of the disease. But a surge of cases since early June — coinciding with the eruption of the Black Lives Matter protests — has caused the state to reinstate many restrictions.
B-Man Posted July 3, 2020 Posted July 3, 2020 THE GREAT REOPENING: Judge Nukes Ill. Lockdown: Pritzker ‘Had No Authority’ to Restrict Movement and Close Businesses. 1 1
B-Man Posted July 3, 2020 Posted July 3, 2020 It’s Time to Unplug From the Media’s Pandemic Porn Posted by Leslie Eastman ▪ July 3, 2020 at 12:00pm The good news related to the coronavirus the press just won’t share. 1
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