There should be a national dialogue in getting back to work

[B-Man]

 

 

ANYONE SURPRISED ?

 

Massive Unemployment Fraud Uncovered In Washington State, Others

When the first massive coronavirus aid package was passed in Congress it included substantial benefits for workers who lost their jobs because of the government-mandated shutdown. One of the biggest was the federal enhancement of state unemployment benefits, increasing weekly payments by up to six hundred dollars. As we quickly learned, Senate Republicans’ concerns over not having a cap on those benefits to prevent the payments from exceeding the employee’s previous salary were fully justified.

 

That didn’t wind up being the only problem with the plan, however. We’re now learning that the hastily rushed through bill and the flood of people applying for benefits left the door open for scammers and identity thieves to tap into the system and falsely claim benefits to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars. The first epicenter of this massive scheme was detected in Washington State, but it quickly spread to others. (Associated Press)

 

 

More at the link: https://hotair.com/archives/jazz-shaw/2020/05/28/massive-unemployment-fraud-uncovered-washington-state-others/

[MILFHUNTER#518]

 

[RochesterRob]

6 hours ago, Magox said:

 

No one claimed it would.

  I just don't know how a comprehensive study that has real meaning could be put together so fast.  Not trying to be a Negative Ned but as a business person I have heard the sunny skies speech many times from business leaders.  I had a chance to add capital items to my business several years ago but did so conservatively.  If I had listened to industry leaders I would have spent way more than I should have and would have already faced the prospect of selling some of it off as things resumed a normal pattern.  

[GG]

1 hour ago, Chef Jim said:

 

Keep in mind the bank "has" the money not the account holder until they take it out.  And the bank is not sitting on the money.  

 

Looks like 2020 will blow away the record for investment grade bond issuance.

 

On the other hand, everyone is bracing for massive defaults on the other end of the bond spectrum.

 

A truly bizarre year for the fixed income markets.

[ComradeKayAdams]

On 5/26/2020 at 3:45 PM, Magox said:

I know this is an unpopular position on this board, but with interest rates near 0%, it makes a lot of sense for the government to borrow to stimulate the economy.  I'm not a full Keynesian sort of guy, I disagreed with much of it under Obama because I thought the problems the economy had were structural which required structural policy prescriptions.

 

This is not structural, this is a matter of reopening and giving stimulus in targeted manners to get the economy more quickly back to whole.

 

Yeah that’s how I look at it too. Targeted, short-term, government emergency stimulus measures shouldn’t be conflated with long-term Keynesian economic policies. We are in an acute economic situation where our government has forced its citizens to not work for a period of time. Therefore, the government should have an obligation to financially support its citizens for the period of time they are not allowed to work. When I say short-term government stimulus measures, I’m referring to stimulus checks/sunset UBI’s, pandemic universal health care, student loan deferments, rent/mortgage deferments, and alterations to unemployment benefits. Stuff like that. It’s a shame that our country creates so much pushback for basic emergency government relief that so many other civilized countries assume as givens. Take Germany for example. Their government successfully froze their economy during the lockdown and kept their citizens on business payrolls, rather than allow everyone to get laid off like what has happened here in the US. Granted, Germany is still facing an almost inevitable recession like the rest of Europe, but to me they look to be much more equipped to handle it than the US. By the way, Germany is handling the health crisis aspect to the COVID-19 pandemic equally well with their universal health care system for all 85 million citizens…thought I’d throw that out there and provoke the board a little this afternoon…

 

You’ve noted in this thread a couple reasons for possible optimism in a v-shaped economic recovery: increased activity in the housing market and recent stock market surges. I don’t see the housing sales data as anything more than a reflection of the lingering pre-pandemic economy, if we are to glean anything from it at all. The people purchasing homes are probably merely carrying out their life plans before this mess began, and these are probably the people whose jobs weren’t negatively impacted from the pandemic. There are way too many variables that have yet to play out in the housing market. A third of Americans didn’t pay rent or mortgage in May. Similarly, stock market Pollyannas need to remember that it is only a quantitative prediction of future economic activity and only reflects the current collective psychology among investors. At some eventual point in time, these companies with publicly traded stocks will inevitably require a sufficient demand pool for their goods and services. With something reported like 75-80% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck before the pandemic, this demand pool is looking terrible at the moment. A non-trivial portion of the American economy depends on the purchase of non-essential goods and services, but the people subsisting on unemployment benefits or reduced income are much less likely to consider buying stuff they want until they can first pay for all the things they need. So we’re 2.5 months into the pandemic response, with hardly anyone fully reopened, most places opening gradually, and with our two most economically important cities (NYC and LA) still closed. The longer this carries on, the worse our prospects will be for a v-shaped recovery WITHOUT significant federal government stimulus.

 

Sorry for being such a wet blanket! Hopefully someone will poke holes in my negativity???

 

 

On 5/26/2020 at 4:16 PM, 3rdnlng said:

 while Zubaz Pants might become popular again.

 

If Zubaz pants become popular again, then all of this will have been totally worth it.

[Buffalo_Gal]

21 minutes ago, MILFHUNTER#518 said:

 

I thought we'd slide right over to phase 2 once phase 1 is over. This newspaper article from today says differently.

Wording on phase 2 of NY reopening tweaked: All office jobs now included
 

</snip>
 

Tomorrow will be two weeks since Central New York and several other regions began the first phase of the state’s reopening plan. Officials had previously said there would be a two-week pause between phases to monitor how the virus responded to increased activity.
 

Assuming the pandemic didn’t worsen considerably, the idea was to move to the next phase after that.
 

Given the earlier message from Cuomo and others, many phase two businesses have started preparing to reopen tomorrow. But the state has yet to give official, public clearance for phase two in any regions.
 

</snip>

Edited May 28, 2020 by Buffalo_Gal

[3rdnlng]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

I thought we slide right over to phase 2 once phase 1 is over. This newspaper article from today says differently.

Wording on phase 2 of NY reopening tweaked: All office jobs now included
 

</snip>
 

Tomorrow will be two weeks since Central New York and several other regions began the first phase of the state’s reopening plan. Officials had previously said there would be a two-week pause between phases to monitor how the virus responded to increased activity.
 

Assuming the pandemic didn’t worsen considerably, the idea was to move to the next phase after that.
 

Given the earlier message from Cuomo and others, many phase two businesses have started preparing to reopen tomorrow. But the state has yet to give official, public clearance for phase two in any regions.
 

</snip>

So, how is this pause between phases any different than Purgatory? Isn't it just the same as extending Phase 1? 

[Chef Jim]

5 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Looks like 2020 will blow away the record for investment grade bond issuance.

 

On the other hand, everyone is bracing for massive defaults on the other end of the bond spectrum.

 

A truly bizarre year for the fixed income markets.

 

Fixed income is always a bit tricky.  Why I tell my retired clients any fixed income you need for 3-5 years should be pretty much in cash.  They usually look at me like I'm crazy but they are loving me this year. And I'm talking fixed income needs above and beyond their SS. 

[Magox]

21 minutes ago, RealKayAdams said:

 

Yeah that’s how I look at it too. Targeted, short-term, government emergency stimulus measures shouldn’t be conflated with long-term Keynesian economic policies. We are in an acute economic situation where our government has forced its citizens to not work for a period of time. Therefore, the government should have an obligation to financially support its citizens for the period of time they are not allowed to work. When I say short-term government stimulus measures, I’m referring to stimulus checks/sunset UBI’s, pandemic universal health care, student loan deferments, rent/mortgage deferments, and alterations to unemployment benefits. Stuff like that. It’s a shame that our country creates so much pushback for basic emergency government relief that so many other civilized countries assume as givens. Take Germany for example. Their government successfully froze their economy during the lockdown and kept their citizens on business payrolls, rather than allow everyone to get laid off like what has happened here in the US. Granted, Germany is still facing an almost inevitable recession like the rest of Europe, but to me they look to be much more equipped to handle it than the US. By the way, Germany is handling the health crisis aspect to the COVID-19 pandemic equally well with their universal health care system for all 85 million citizens…thought I’d throw that out there and provoke the board a little this afternoon…

 

You’ve noted in this thread a couple reasons for possible optimism in a v-shaped economic recovery: increased activity in the housing market and recent stock market surges. I don’t see the housing sales data as anything more than a reflection of the lingering pre-pandemic economy, if we are to glean anything from it at all. The people purchasing homes are probably merely carrying out their life plans before this mess began, and these are probably the people whose jobs weren’t negatively impacted from the pandemic. There are way too many variables that have yet to play out in the housing market. A third of Americans didn’t pay rent or mortgage in May. Similarly, stock market Pollyannas need to remember that it is only a quantitative prediction of future economic activity and only reflects the current collective psychology among investors. At some eventual point in time, these companies with publicly traded stocks will inevitably require a sufficient demand pool for their goods and services. With something reported like 75-80% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck before the pandemic, this demand pool is looking terrible at the moment. A non-trivial portion of the American economy depends on the purchase of non-essential goods and services, but the people subsisting on unemployment benefits or reduced income are much less likely to consider buying stuff they want until they can first pay for all the things they need. So we’re 2.5 months into the pandemic response, with hardly anyone fully reopened, most places opening gradually, and with our two most economically important cities (NYC and LA) still closed. The longer this carries on, the worse our prospects will be for a v-shaped recovery WITHOUT significant federal government stimulus.

 

Sorry for being such a wet blanket! Hopefully someone will poke holes in my negativity???

 

 

 

If Zubaz pants become popular again, then all of this will have been totally worth it.

 

I'm largely in agreement with what you are saying, my views over the years have moderated and changed some.  I'm no longer a believer in net national debt being nearly as much of an issue as the countries ability to repay the servicing costs of the debt that satisfies the bond markets.  And let's face it, as long as the dollar is king, there is no better game in town.  And there is nothing remotely on the horizon that will replace it's status.  With that said, just like the Roman empire, there will be a day of reckoning. But, even the Roman empire lasted 1500 years before it's reign ended.

 

I may quibble with some of your policy prescriptions but in spirit we are on similar tracks.   

 

Just to be clear, I don't believe it will be a V recovery, I think it will be more like a Nike Swoosh.  There will be quite a few small businesses that will permanently shudder and those aren't replaced overnight.  Provided that confidence continues and that the media doesn't scare the ***** out of people with inklings of a "second wave" and that a vaccine is in place by the end of the year, I see strong growth beginning in the 3rd and continuing on through for a few quarters.  I think there is a decent chance we could get back down to 7-8% unemployment by the end of next summer.  That will be the low hanging fruit, getting it down from 8-5% could take years.  Which is why I am a big proponent of borrowing the crap out of money right now while interest rates are near 0%, with a federal reserve that will purchase up the growing junk bonds that could present a problem but won't because of the Fed.  And if there could be more targeted stimulus that gets small businesses back to whole with some infrastructure, maybe we could get back to 5% unemployment in 2 years as opposed to maybe 3-4 without the added stimulus.  

22 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Looks like 2020 will blow away the record for investment grade bond issuance.

 

On the other hand, everyone is bracing for massive defaults on the other end of the bond spectrum.

 

A truly bizarre year for the fixed income markets.

 

I just alluded to this in my previous post.  Corporate bond market is gonna get awfully hairy in the next 3-18 months.   Luckily for them, the federal reserve will backstop it.

Edited May 28, 2020 by Magox

[RochesterRob]

11 minutes ago, RealKayAdams said:

 

Yeah that’s how I look at it too. Targeted, short-term, government emergency stimulus measures shouldn’t be conflated with long-term Keynesian economic policies. We are in an acute economic situation where our government has forced its citizens to not work for a period of time. Therefore, the government should have an obligation to financially support its citizens for the period of time they are not allowed to work. When I say short-term government stimulus measures, I’m referring to stimulus checks/sunset UBI’s, pandemic universal health care, student loan deferments, rent/mortgage deferments, and alterations to unemployment benefits. Stuff like that. It’s a shame that our country creates so much pushback for basic emergency government relief that so many other civilized countries assume as givens. Take Germany for example. Their government successfully froze their economy during the lockdown and kept their citizens on business payrolls, rather than allow everyone to get laid off like what has happened here in the US. Granted, Germany is still facing an almost inevitable recession like the rest of Europe, but to me they look to be much more equipped to handle it than the US. By the way, Germany is handling the health crisis aspect to the COVID-19 pandemic equally well with their universal health care system for all 85 million citizens…thought I’d throw that out there and provoke the board a little this afternoon…

 

You’ve noted in this thread a couple reasons for possible optimism in a v-shaped economic recovery: increased activity in the housing market and recent stock market surges. I don’t see the housing sales data as anything more than a reflection of the lingering pre-pandemic economy, if we are to glean anything from it at all. The people purchasing homes are probably merely carrying out their life plans before this mess began, and these are probably the people whose jobs weren’t negatively impacted from the pandemic. There are way too many variables that have yet to play out in the housing market. A third of Americans didn’t pay rent or mortgage in May. Similarly, stock market Pollyannas need to remember that it is only a quantitative prediction of future economic activity and only reflects the current collective psychology among investors. At some eventual point in time, these companies with publicly traded stocks will inevitably require a sufficient demand pool for their goods and services. With something reported like 75-80% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck before the pandemic, this demand pool is looking terrible at the moment. A non-trivial portion of the American economy depends on the purchase of non-essential goods and services, but the people subsisting on unemployment benefits or reduced income are much less likely to consider buying stuff they want until they can first pay for all the things they need. So we’re 2.5 months into the pandemic response, with hardly anyone fully reopened, most places opening gradually, and with our two most economically important cities (NYC and LA) still closed. The longer this carries on, the worse our prospects will be for a v-shaped recovery WITHOUT significant federal government stimulus.

 

Sorry for being such a wet blanket! Hopefully someone will poke holes in my negativity???

 

 

 

If Zubaz pants become popular again, then all of this will have been totally worth it.

  I studied economics at Cornell many years ago and a big concern I have is that a dollar needs to change hands many times per month to sustain salaries.  Stifling the movement of money through the economy for a couple of months is crippling long term with the more serious effects needing a few months to make themselves apparent.  People use credit cards to maintain their lives.  What is to stop the credit card companies from following their own instincts and raising rates on those who do not pay on time through no fault of their own?  Money that would have been available to spend generally is now needed to chase interest and other fees.  The reports you hear at present do not show this happening but the credit card companies could go for the jugular when the media attention shifts away from the fallout of the pandemic.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

....are you kidding me??...MS-DOS?......I have a 386SX-16 or IBM 8088 computer for sale if you're interested.......

 

NYS using MS-DOS to process unemployment claims

Jennifer Lewke
Updated: May 26, 2020 06:11 PM
Created: May 26, 2020 03:03 PM 

 

 

 

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WHEC) — The New York State Labor Department says it has now paid out $10 billion in unemployment benefits to 2 million New Yorkers, but as so many of you know, the process has not been a smooth one.

 

News10NBC Investigative Reporter Jennifer Lewke has been exposing major issues with the unemployment system for weeks and now she is in possession of an internal training video that shows just how antiquated the system is. 

 

Hundreds, if not thousands of New Yorkers have contacted News10NBC over the past two months, people who lost their jobs due to the pandemic and have been struggling to get the unemployment benefits they are entitled to. When non-essential businesses were closed, New York’s unemployment system was crushed with claims. Making matters worse, that system is antiquated at best, archaic to most. 

 

In June 2017, when asking for bids to update the system, the Labor Department wrote in an RFP, “the state has faced the pressing problem of maintaining, modifying, and extending outdated and expensive mainframe-based UI benefits and contributions systems that were written in the 1970’s and 1980’s and remain constrained by the technology of that era.”

 

https://www.whec.com/news/nys-using-ms-dos-to-process-unemployment-claims/5741693/

[B-Man]

 

 

 

LIST: Where Restaurants Have Reopened Across the USA.

 

 

 

 

 

[Buffalo_Gal]

56 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

So, how is this pause between phases any different than Purgatory? Isn't it just the same as extending Phase 1? 

?‍♂️

 

[B-Man]

 

 

BOSTON MARATHON CALLED OFF OVER CORONAVIRUS, RACE WILL BE ONLINE ONLY.

 

“Boston Athletic Association officials said they plan a ‘historic virtual marathon.’”

 

More details at the Boston Athletic Association Website:

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

6 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

BOSTON MARATHON CALLED OFF OVER CORONAVIRUS, RACE WILL BE ONLINE ONLY.

 

“Boston Athletic Association officials said they plan a ‘historic virtual marathon.’”

 

More details at the Boston Athletic Association Website:

Virtual. Marathon.

 

Good God.

 

[RochesterRob]

  Erie County Fair cancelled for 2020.  A loss of income for local vendors and probably not the only cancellation for national vendors and entertainment providers.

[B-Man]

3 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  Erie County Fair cancelled for 2020.  A loss of income for local vendors and probably not the only cancellation for national vendors and entertainment providers.

 

 

Over 10 weeks away.

 

 

?

[RochesterRob]

9 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

Over 10 weeks away.

 

 

?

  Not my thing anymore but a county fair can be a pretty big deal to some kids.  I'm surprised that whoever runs the fair made a call to cancel this far ahead of when it was to run.

[Buffalo_Gal]

2 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said:

Virtual. Marathon.

 

Good God.

 

Hush-up.  This is my only chance win finish compete pretend I am a runner.

 

[Koko78]

1 hour ago, RochesterRob said:

  Erie County Fair cancelled for 2020.  A loss of income for local vendors and probably not the only cancellation for national vendors and entertainment providers.

 

They cancelled the Genesee and Wyoming County fairs as well.