There should be a national dialogue in getting back to work

[Taro T]

6 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

It's plausible.  I'm not going to lie, the recovery is starting offer more rapidly than I anticipated.  With that said, my biggest worries wasn't so much the takeoff of the recovery, that I thought would happen.  It's the follow through.  There will be many restaurants and small businesses that will permanently shudder as a result of the lock downs.  They will eventually be replaced but that doesn't happen overnight and in order for the economy to be made whole, that means all those businesses that shut down will have to be revived again in some shape or form.   

 

I know this is an unpopular position on this board, but with interest rates near 0%, it makes a lot of sense for the government to borrow to stimulate the economy.  I'm not a full Keynesian sort of guy, I disagreed with much of it under Obama because I thought the problems the economy had were structural which required structural policy prescriptions.

 

This is not structural, this is a matter of reopening and giving stimulus in targeted manners to get the economy more quickly back to whole.

 

What I would be totally in favor of is the government helping small restaurateurs (say maybe 4 or fewer restaurants with no affiliation to major franchises) put in better HVAC systems to help them maintain "healthier" environments.  These places can't, for the most part, afford those systems & if they can't put in something like that really doubt states will let them fully reopen.  If they have to stay at 50% capacity, they'll all go under even more quickly than usual.  Could see offering very low interest loans or Grant's for other small businesses as well for similar measures.

 

But not in favor of pumping in much more unless it is very targeted.  The 1st 2 CARES Bill's couldn't be targeted because the governments forced the economy to close literally overnight.  They now can create much better legislation (though they likely won't).

 

And the resiliency of the economy will be highly "elastic" (for lack of a better word, maybe resilient fits better?) as to how quickly things reopen.  Stuff that's opening now, especially with the emergency loans that were given out, can hop right back to where it was.  But push this out another month or 2 & places that go bankrupt aren't coming back.

[Deranged Rhino]

2 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

I'm the head of sales for the company that I work for and we've been pushing out lots of content on Social Media primarily FB and we are currently conducting a poll.  The way they make their vote is via emoji lol.  However, we have provided more options than the polling companies.

 

1) Open up the economy

2) Wait until a vaccine/cure

3) Do what your governor suggests

4) I don't know.

 

When we did this we targeted people who were fans of Donald Trump and FOX news on one side and MSNBC, CNN and Joe Biden on the other side to try to get as even of a mix as possible of audience.

 

And so far we have over 1300 responses and the overwhelming majority of them want to open up.

 

It's not a scientific poll, but the numbers are striking.  And read the comments, it's crazy the amount of people that want to get back to more normalcy.    I have always believed that the polling results of people wanting more caution was a paper tiger.  I think the energy is definitely to get back to work.  As people are learning more about the Virus and seeing it not effect areas where they live, people are understandably rebelling.

 

Here is the polling of our FB thingy to see for yourself. lol  

 

 

 That's awesome. Thanks for sharing! 

[Taro T]

4 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

I'm the head of sales for the company that I work for and we've been pushing out lots of content on Social Media primarily FB and we are currently conducting a poll.  The way they make their vote is via emoji lol.  However, we have provided more options than the polling companies.

 

1) Open up the economy

2) Wait until a vaccine/cure

3) Do what your governor suggests

4) I don't know.

 

When we did this we targeted people who were fans of Donald Trump and FOX news on one side and MSNBC, CNN and Joe Biden on the other side to try to get as even of a mix as possible of audience.

 

And so far we have over 1300 responses and the overwhelming majority of them want to open up.

 

It's not a scientific poll, but the numbers are striking.  And read the comments, it's crazy the amount of people that want to get back to more normalcy.    I have always believed that the polling results of people wanting more caution was a paper tiger.  I think the energy is definitely to get back to work.  As people are learning more about the Virus and seeing it not effect areas where they live, people are understandably rebelling.

 

Here is the polling of our FB thingy to see for yourself. lol  

 

 

Unfortunately, don't have a FB account, so can't see any comments or poll results.  But that's a great idea to run the poll that way to get a feel for how your customers are looking at this. 

[dubs]

On 5/24/2020 at 2:04 PM, BillStime said:

Yeah where are they all?

 

these gotcha type memes are very disingenuous. 
 

im not a religious person, but I certainly value an individuals right to spend their time and money as they wish. If a person wants to give their money to these people or their church, at least it’s their own choice. As opposed to confiscation of personal property via government. 
 

and do we know what these people are doing or just their net worth?  What’s the appropriate amount to give that will be “helpful”?  Do we apply this standard to all multi millionaires or just Christian ones?  What’s the minimum amount of net worth to be in this category of shamed?

just some thoughts...

 

[Magox]

Just now, Deranged Rhino said:

 

 That's awesome. Thanks for sharing! 

 

 

We have created a lot of COVID content, I'm not the one writing them but I direct what sort of content to be written.   And the guy who writes the stuff for us is British and I think he has a leftward bent to him.  So when he writes things, often times I see bias in one shape or another.  I'm always like - Just give it straight, no bent.  We aren't trying to change people's minds about anything, we just want to inform them.  Give them the facts and let them make up their own minds. - 

 

And we are driving around 25,000 visitors per week to our blogs.  I thought - let's do a poll. -  I really wanted to do a poll with more proper options to them than what the polling is asking.   We tried to balance out the crowds by selecting Trump/FOX and MSNBC/CNN/Biden.   So I don't think that it's disproportionately going to Trump people.

 

I'm just guessing that they are more motivated to respond.

[SoCal Deek]

3 minutes ago, dubs said:

these gotcha type memes are very disingenuous. 
 

im not a religious person, but I certainly value an individuals right to spend their time and money as they wish. If a person wants to give their money to these people or their church, at least it’s their own choice. As opposed to confiscation of personal property via government. 
 

and do we know what these people are doing or just their net worth?  What’s the appropriate amount to give that will be “helpful”?  Do we apply this standard to all multi millionaires or just Christian ones?  What’s the minimum amount of net worth to be in this category of shamed?

just some thoughts...

 

I agree, and I am indeed a devoted Christian. I'm pretty sure that the pastors in this meme didn't TAKE money from their congregations.  There's no cover charge at the door to their Church. And, I have no idea what good work they are doing, or plan to do, with their estate. The Bible is pretty darn clear about judging not lest you be judged.

[3rdnlng]

14 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

It's plausible.  I'm not going to lie, the recovery is starting offer more rapidly than I anticipated.  With that said, my biggest worries wasn't so much the takeoff of the recovery, that I thought would happen.  It's the follow through.  There will be many restaurants and small businesses that will permanently shudder as a result of the lock downs.  They will eventually be replaced but that doesn't happen overnight and in order for the economy to be made whole, that means all those businesses that shut down will have to be revived again in some shape or form.   

 

I know this is an unpopular position on this board, but with interest rates near 0%, it makes a lot of sense for the government to borrow to stimulate the economy.  I'm not a full Keynesian sort of guy, I disagreed with much of it under Obama because I thought the problems the economy had were structural which required structural policy prescriptions.

 

This is not structural, this is a matter of reopening and giving stimulus in targeted manners to get the economy more quickly back to whole.

If we return to the old ways we will quickly recover. I'm not saying that is the best way to go though. If we do change with more people end up working from home then downtown restaurants will be hurt by loss of food and liquor sales while grocery and possibly liquor store sales will increase. In short, the service industry will see some real changes but it might be just a shuffling of the chairs. We will use our vehicles and mass transit differently (most likely less) and save money on fuel and other related items. Suit and tie business might go down while Zubaz Pants might become popular again. Whatever, there will definitely be changes and opportunities. 

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

If we return to the old ways we will quickly recover. I'm not saying that is the best way to go though. If we do change with more people end up working from home then downtown restaurants will be hurt by loss of food and liquor sales while grocery and possibly liquor store sales will increase. In short, the service industry will see some real changes but it might be just a shuffling of the chairs. We will use our vehicles and mass transit differently (most likely less) and save money on fuel and other related items. Suit and tie business might go down while Zubaz Pants might become popular again. Whatever, there will definitely be changes and opportunities. 

 

There'll definitely be changes.

 

Mass transit systems (that haven't already) upgraded disinfection of the carriers & sfaions/terminals will have to do so significantly. 

 

We will likely see a greater expansion of suburbs & even rural living as cities are where people will fear to live.

 

It'll be interesting to see if sporting events & concerts end up with a huge shift in how tightly they squeeze people in vs try to get even larger PPV audiences.  Whatever the Bills decide to do for their new home, we'll likely end up with one of the 1st stadiums (either a remodeled Rich/Ralph/NE or less likely a new one) built to the expectations of the new way of doing things for which many of the assumptions will turn out to have been wrong.  (Kind of like how the designers of UB decided that a "riot proof" campus far from the city's population center was the way to build the new campus or how Pilot Field with the cool retro look to it has all the seats facing forward rather than leaning towards home plate.)  So, the errors that get made on that project will be useful to show others what not to do on the following generation of new stadiums/ major remodels.

 

There'll be a bunch of other changes too.

[SoCal Deek]

2 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

There'll definitely be changes.

 

Mass transit systems (that haven't already) upgraded disinfection of the carriers & sfaions/terminals will have to do so significantly. 

 

We will likely see a greater expansion of suburbs & even rural living as cities are where people will fear to live.

 

It'll be interesting to see if sporting events & concerts end up with a huge shift in how tightly they squeeze people in vs try to get even larger PPV audiences.  Whatever the Bills decide to do for their new home, we'll likely end up with one of the 1st stadiums (either a remodeled Rich/Ralph/NE or less likely a new one) built to the expectations of the new way of doing things for which many of the assumptions will turn out to have been wrong.  (Kind of like how the designers of UB decided that a "riot proof" campus far from the city's population center was the way to build the new campus or how Pilot Field with the cool retro look to it has all the seats facing forward rather than leaning towards home plate.)  So, the errors that get made on that project will be useful to show others what not to do on the following generation of new stadiums/ major remodels.

 

There'll be a bunch of other changes too.

You do realize that every single sporting event you have ever attended has occurred in a world that has already lived through dozens of pandemics....right?  The current 'crisis' will not be the end of the world as you've known it, no more than every other over-hyped crisis you've watched and listened to since the advent of Facebook and Twitter.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

18 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

There'll definitely be changes.

 

Mass transit systems (that haven't already) upgraded disinfection of the carriers & sfaions/terminals will have to do so significantly. 

 

We will likely see a greater expansion of suburbs & even rural living as cities are where people will fear to live.

 

It'll be interesting to see if sporting events & concerts end up with a huge shift in how tightly they squeeze people in vs try to get even larger PPV audiences.  Whatever the Bills decide to do for their new home, we'll likely end up with one of the 1st stadiums (either a remodeled Rich/Ralph/NE or less likely a new one) built to the expectations of the new way of doing things for which many of the assumptions will turn out to have been wrong.  (Kind of like how the designers of UB decided that a "riot proof" campus far from the city's population center was the way to build the new campus or how Pilot Field with the cool retro look to it has all the seats facing forward rather than leaning towards home plate.)  So, the errors that get made on that project will be useful to show others what not to do on the following generation of new stadiums/ major remodels.

 

There'll be a bunch of other changes too.

 

...they sure as hell need to be measured and well thought out before jumping unnecessarily......see how the gradual re-openings go by state first....the Memorial Day weekend in Rochester yielded heavy police presence at three block parties of 200+ people each with no much luck in dispersal......and NO social distancing or masks......and they broke up numerous fights at Lake Ontario Beach Park......Chicago's Memorial Day tally was 27 shot with 9 dead.....keep tightening the screws and these occurrences replicate.....

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

On 5/25/2020 at 11:17 AM, B-Man said:

 

 

And in California:

 

 

 

 

 

The "state" in all of it's various iterations does more to snuff out jobs, livelihoods and businesses than the most aggressive corporate raider ever could.  I think it's awesome that they just cross out $100 and make it $1000, as if someone just made this ***** up on the fly.  

[Buffalo_Gal]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

In central Florida with over 5 million residents we just had our 200th death from Corona. I will not blast politicians for the initial shut down but at this point everyone except for high density cities should be reopened and trying to make up for lost time.

The experiment is not complete by any standard- we will only have an answer about it in about 18 more months and I will wait to see. The earliest we could make a decision is when the vaccine is ready.

It would be tough to blast anyone (state or federal) for the initial shut down.  But from "two weeks to flatten the curve" to "shut down until there is a vaccine" is simply an overplayed hand.  Adding to that the Governor dictators (partly because they can, partly for Uncle Sam dollars, partly to hope it hurts Trump) and most people have had enough. (I can definitely see why NYC-area residents would be fearful though.)

Will opening up spread COVID-19? Quite possibly. It may also lead to herd immunity, which is desirable. It could come back in the fall after heat and humidity have abated. Unfortunately, no one knows for certain right now. We do have better treatments than what was available in January and February, and hopefully the world will be on the way to a vaccine. I do not think we will see another shut down in the fall, however. And the question of whether or not states with shut down again without a Federal shut down, especially if there is no Federal disaster declaration (aid money), will be interesting.

If mail-in-voting can be staved off for this November, the election may tell us whether people will stand for being locked down in the future or not.
 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

....differing schools of thought....Treasury Secretary Mnuchin vs Kudlow..............Mnuchin said if your employer calls you back to work from unemployment as states re-open and you refuse, you're disqualified from the $600 stipend....Kudlow wants to consider a "back to work bonus" for returning......Mnuchin>Kudlow IMO......WSJ said 50% of people on unemployment are earning MORE staying home and we have to now pay them a bonus?....sorry Larry..............

[Taro T]

59 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

You do realize that every single sporting event you have ever attended has occurred in a world that has already lived through dozens of pandemics....right?  The current 'crisis' will not be the end of the world as you've known it, no more than every other over-hyped crisis you've watched and listened to since the advent of Facebook and Twitter.

 

You do realize that the Pegulas were already having planning studies conducted to determine how to replace Rich Stadium & upgrade/ renovate the MMArena that included significantly reducing the seating capacity of both venues to include very spacious premium seating down low between the BL's for hockey & between the 30's for football, right?

 

The owners of all the major league teams have been looking at ways of ramping up the prices they can charge for high amenity seating before anyone ever thought about doing whatever they did to bats over there.  Would not be surprised at all to see our teams' owners to tag onto this current call for distancing in public spaces & overstep the degree of "distancing" & exclusivity that gets built into the renovations/ replacements.

 

Obviously, this crisis isn't going to end life (or lifestyles) as we know it (or them).  But it seems unlikely that opportunists aren't going to push for modifications in the way things are done to put even more money in their pockets.  Making it a far more exclusive, nicer, & pricier thing to attend a sporting event or concert in person while taking advantage of 4K HDTVs to make it essentially seem like you're at the show (minus the faint smell of ganja wafting through the air) while paying the equivalent of the price of a cheap seat seems a reasonable expectation from here.  Ymmv.

[3rdnlng]

21 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

....differing schools of thought....Treasury Secretary Mnuchin vs Kudlow..............Mnuchin said if your employer calls you back to work from unemployment as states re-open and you refuse, you're disqualified from the $600 stipend....Kudlow wants to consider a "back to work bonus" for returning......Mnuchin>Kudlow IMO......WSJ said 50% of people on unemployment are earning MORE staying home and we have to now pay them a bonus?....sorry Larry..............

I think the difference is if a person is called back vs. if a person has to go out and find a new job because they are not going to be called back. Kudlow wants to encourage them to find a new job while Mnuchin has a right approach for the people who refuse to get called back. Apples and cucumbers. 

[SoCal Deek]

2 hours ago, Taro T said:

 

Obviously, this crisis isn't going to end life (or lifestyles) as we know it (or them).  But it seems unlikely that opportunists aren't going to push for modifications in the way things are done to put even more money in their pockets.  Making it a far more exclusive, nicer, & pricier thing to attend a sporting event or concert in person while taking advantage of 4K HDTVs to make it essentially seem like you're at the show (minus the faint smell of ganja wafting through the air) while paying the equivalent of the price of a cheap seat seems a reasonable expectation from here.  Ymmv.

Stadium projects take years and years to design and construct. I highly doubt that the Spring 2020 Corona Virus will have much of an impact on future stadium designs.  Other factors might, but not the Covid issue. I guess we'll both wait and see. (Think about the impact on Las Vegas and Los Angeles, both of which haven't even opened their new facilities yet.....YIKES)

[Magox]

Mortgage applications up 9%

 

FROM LAST YEAR!

 

Quote

 

Mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 9% last week from the previous week and from a year earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. It was the sixth straight week of gains and a 54% recovery since early April.

 

“The home purchase market continued its path to recovery as various states reopen, leading to more buyers resuming their home search,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist. “Additionally, the purchase loan amount has increased steadily in recent weeks and is now at its highest level since mid-March.” 

The gain mirrors an unexpectedly strong sales pace just reported for newly built homes in April. They were forecast to fall 22% but instead rose nearly 1% for the month, according to the U.S. Census. Buyers are rushing into the new home market, as the supply of existing homes keeps falling to new record lows. Some analysts also believe there is now a flight from urban downtowns, where people have been sheltered in small apartments, to suburban markets, where they can find more space, especially backyards and home offices. 

 

 

Interesting little tidbit there at the end.

 

I would like to see some proof of that.  I don't doubt it, I do think that the virus will change some consumer and migratory behavior.  

 

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, Magox said:

Mortgage applications up 9%

 

FROM LAST YEAR!

 

 

Interesting little tidbit there at the end.

 

I would like to see some proof of that.  I don't doubt it, I do think that the virus will change some consumer and migratory behavior.  

 

We’ll see. Americans have been dealing with winter snows and summer humidity and bugs for over two centuries, and yet there are millions who still choose to live in the northeast. 

[Warren Zevon]

4 minutes ago, Magox said:

Mortgage applications up 9%

 

FROM LAST YEAR!

 

 

Interesting little tidbit there at the end.

 

I would like to see some proof of that.  I don't doubt it, I do think that the virus will change some consumer and migratory behavior.  

 

 

More people working from home permanently will give more people the opportunity to live wherever they want.

[Magox]

26 minutes ago, Warren Zevon said:

 

More people working from home permanently will give more people the opportunity to live wherever they want.

 

Possibly.  Makes sense.   I do think that there will be more companies employing work-at-home models.

 

I know our company, we made the decision to have more of our employees work from home.  We had the luxury to first have seasonal 1099  contracted  workers sort of show their mettle first and it gave us the chance to observe their habits, ethics and results to give us an opportunity to pick the cream of the crop.   That's helped us greatly.

 

The thing about work-at-home jobs is that there are trade offs.  If you can only go by a resume and some referrals and you have a newly hired employee there are logistical challenges to getting the employee up-to-speed and you truly don't know their work habits in a somewhat unsupervised environment.  Clearly working in an office you have more control of these issues.

 

But the on the positive side of the ledger, it's less costly, you can attract better nationwide talent as opposed to being stuck with what is available in the region where the company resides and now with these sort of virus disaster issues you are less affected.

 

We actually opened up a call center this past year and now they are all working from home for now.  We are about to open up another office in Savannah GA. and Boca. Florida,  but most of our team works from home.   There are advantages and disadvantages to both models.