There should be a national dialogue in getting back to work

[Magox]

There needs to be a national dialogue about this. Unfortunately with the way Trump oafishly says things and the way the media likes to cover the minutia of his words as opposed to the substance of it, it is nearly impossible to have that dialogue.

 

At some point, the country will need to begin phasing back in the workforce. We just need to know what the metrics that they will be looking at, how a phased in workforce would look like and what the risks would be?

 

The economic cost of a protracted downturn is mind bending, but there is a human health component to it as well. The 2008 downturn according to studies caused over 12,000 suicides and Tens of thousands of indirect deaths due to added stress which lowers people's immune systems that makes those with heart and cancer afflictions specially at risk.  This DOES NOT HAVE TO BE A BINARY CHOICE! - It does NOT HAVE TO BE ONE OR THE OTHER. There is a responsible way to decide when we can begin this and how it would look like. For those of you that are interested in seeing this Harvard study on the impacts of protracted unemployment to people's health you can read that here.

 

 

 

 

[Tiberius]

2 minutes ago, Magox said:

There needs to be a national dialogue about this. Unfortunately with the way Trump oafishly says things and the way the media likes to cover the minutia of his words as opposed to the substance of it, it is nearly impossible to have that dialogue.

 

At some point, the country will need to begin phasing back in the workforce. We just need to know what the metrics that they will be looking at, how a phased in workforce would look like and what the risks would be?

 

The economic cost of a protracted downturn is mind bending, but there is a human health component to it as well. The 2008 downturn according to studies caused over 12,000 suicides and Tens of thousands of indirect deaths due to added stress which lowers people's immune systems that makes those with heart and cancer afflictions specially at risk.  This DOES NOT HAVE TO BE A BINARY CHOICE! - It does NOT HAVE TO BE ONE OR THE OTHER. There is a responsible way to decide when we can begin this and how it would look like. For those of you that are interested in seeing this Harvard study on the impacts of protracted unemployment to people's health you can read that here.

 

 

 

 

Cuomo was discussing a study about how testing can determine people who had the virus and are now safe and that they should be the first ones going back. A sort of rolling response to get the country going again. 

[B-Man]

 

 

Excellent post Magox.

 

 

In particular your point about it not having to be one choice or the other.

 

 

Unfortunately, every time this topic has been brought up in multiple other threads, the response has been that "we are willing to sacrifice people so that big business won't be hurt."

 

 

No forward thinking at all.

 

 

. 

Edited March 24, 2020 by B-Man

[Magox]

5 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Cuomo was discussing a study about how testing can determine people who had the virus and are now safe and that they should be the first ones going back. A sort of rolling response to get the country going again. 

 

I am sure that is what Trump's team's suggestions will look like as well.  A gradual phasing approach.  Trump doesn't do nuance, he talks about things with a sledgehammer and since the country has been told ad nauseum to continue social distancing and then he comes out with his Two by Four that the U.S will be back in Biz soon it sends shock waves.

 

But in reality, he and Cuomo are most likely not that far apart, just that Cuomo's approach comes one from a bit more of empathy and factual data to make his case.  But again, they really are not that far apart because if you can get past the bluster which I understand is hard to do, Trump has excellent instincts and decision making and he is someone who listens to his advisers.  His job is not to go along with what his advisers say but to listen to them all and as commander in chief to make the best decision possible.  

 

I certainly hope he makes a good decision here and doesn't steer the country in the wrong direction.   This without doubt will be his most consequential decision.

 

With that said, all Trump can do is provide Federal guidance.  Ultimately it will be the governors and businesses that make the decision.  Don't get me wrong, federal guidance will be a powerful tool but it is the governors and businesses decision.

 

9 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

Excellent post Magox.

 

 

In particular your point about it not having to be one choice or the other.

 

 

Unfortunately, every time this topic has been brought up in multiple other threads, the response has been that "we are willing to sacrifice people so that big business won't be hurt."

 

 

No forward thinking at all.

 

 

. 

 

I haven't even read any of the other threads.  I can just imagine, I can generally understand what is going on in the threads and get similar information in the comments section from news outlets on social media.  Just a bunch of vapid back-and-forth.  

 

Don't get me wrong, we have some very good posters here but lots of it is just ughh.....

 

 

[B-Man]

ALL OR NOTHING.......

 

 

As an example

#NotDying4WallStreet....... is trending, all parroting the same misinformation

 

OR:

 

 

 

 

 

.

[IDBillzFan]

As the last 48 hours has proven, the last three years of politics have brought us to a place where the leaders remain too interested in their own agendas than that of the American people.

 

I'm convinced the children in DC are incapable of doing this at this moment in time.

[123719bwiqrb]

Unfortunately, the typical #RESIST bs will win out.

 

It can be done in a phased approach, but there is no way a test an be put together in 3 weeks to clear people.  It will have to be using good old fashioned common sense.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

COMMENCE THE SHAMING

 

"how dare you endanger the elderly and the sick with such loose talk!"

 

SHAME!
 

[Gary M]

35 minutes ago, B-Man said:

ALL OR NOTHING.......

 

 

As an example

#NotDying4WallStreet....... is trending, all parroting the same misinformation

OR:

.

 

If you are sick or vulnerable stay home, if you absolutely need to go out wear a mask, don't touch your face and wash your hands when you get home.

 

Pretty simple

[3rdnlng]

It's going to be a nightmare to slowly get the economy back working by fazing it in. We can let those young workers back to working in the restaurant but what about crowding diners together?  This will be played out over and over in many different ways. 

[thenorthremembers]

You can't just say we will need to get the people who have survived corona back to work first.  Saying that assumes those people all work in the same profession.

 

Who are we talking about?  What professions?  

[Deranged Rhino]

1 minute ago, thenorthremembers said:

You can't just say we will need to get the people who have survived corona back to work first.  Saying that assumes those people all work in the same profession.

 

Who are we talking about?  What professions?  

 

No one is really saying that though. There has not been any concrete proposals or plans presented to the public, but it appears the plan is to reopen the economy in stages based on the data they're continuing to gather this week. If a state/city/area has low infections, that will be opened first compared to NYC let's say, or LA.  

 

And that makes sense.

 

They'll keep studying the data, and use that to best inform how and when they reopen. Not giving any sort of signal in terms of the duration of the shutdown is poison for the economy and the morale of the people. The drips and drabs coming out today from the WH are attempts to reassure that this isn't going to be months or permanent, and that the end is coming -- all while couching it by stating that it's their "hope" not "plan". Which means they'll listen to all the advice from the experts before deciding one way or the other.

[RochesterRob]

2 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

You can't just say we will need to get the people who have survived corona back to work first.  Saying that assumes those people all work in the same profession.

 

Who are we talking about?  What professions?  

  As I said in another thread on TSW going back to work has to allow for the employer being in a position to take the worker back.  If you work for a casino such as Del Lago you are locked out as an employee meaning you have no say in the matter.  If you have to pull the proverbial economic widget from the warehouse and pack it for shipping but there are not enough orders for you to come in to work I doubt your employer will schedule you much less provide a paycheck.  Once again I would suggest that people go out into the community away from their sheltered existence and see how others have to survive.  You might be surprised and perhaps shocked as to how the world works outside of your cubicle.

[Niagara Bill]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

There needs to be a national dialogue about this. Unfortunately with the way Trump oafishly says things and the way the media likes to cover the minutia of his words as opposed to the substance of it, it is nearly impossible to have that dialogue.

 

At some point, the country will need to begin phasing back in the workforce. We just need to know what the metrics that they will be looking at, how a phased in workforce would look like and what the risks would be?

 

The economic cost of a protracted downturn is mind bending, but there is a human health component to it as well. The 2008 downturn according to studies caused over 12,000 suicides and Tens of thousands of indirect deaths due to added stress which lowers people's immune systems that makes those with heart and cancer afflictions specially at risk.  This DOES NOT HAVE TO BE A BINARY CHOICE! - It does NOT HAVE TO BE ONE OR THE OTHER. There is a responsible way to decide when we can begin this and how it would look like. For those of you that are interested in seeing this Harvard study on the impacts of protracted unemployment to people's health you can read that here.

 

 

 

 

I suggest all the big talkers about sacrificing lives for the sake of the stock market should declare the type of jobs they have. 

The economy problem starts with all the baby mba'ers on wall street who discount stock prices of great companies based onTrump sneezing not 20 years of success. 

Same people created the lead up to the 2008 crisis. Remember derivatives.

 

[Deranged Rhino]

1 minute ago, Niagara Bill said:

I suggest all the big talkers about sacrificing lives for the sake of the stock market should declare the type of jobs they have. 

The economy problem starts with all the baby mba'ers on wall street who discount stock prices of great companies based onTrump sneezing not 20 years of success. 

Same people created the lead up to the 2008 crisis. Remember derivatives.

 

 

You're all the way wrong. 

 

The ones being hurt right now aren't the big corporations -- it's the small businesses who employ most Americans. 

[Magox]

18 minutes ago, Niagara Bill said:

I suggest all the big talkers about sacrificing lives for the sake of the stock market should declare the type of jobs they have. 

The economy problem starts with all the baby mba'ers on wall street who discount stock prices of great companies based onTrump sneezing not 20 years of success. 

Same people created the lead up to the 2008 crisis. Remember derivatives.

 

 

This is the sort of vapid talk that I do not miss in PPP.

 

But something for you to chew on how unemployment layoffs disproportionately hurts blacks and latinos

 

But carry on.

 

 

 

20 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

No one is really saying that though. There has not been any concrete proposals or plans presented to the public, but it appears the plan is to reopen the economy in stages based on the data they're continuing to gather this week. If a state/city/area has low infections, that will be opened first compared to NYC let's say, or LA.  

 

And that makes sense.

 

They'll keep studying the data, and use that to best inform how and when they reopen. Not giving any sort of signal in terms of the duration of the shutdown is poison for the economy and the morale of the people. The drips and drabs coming out today from the WH are attempts to reassure that this isn't going to be months or permanent, and that the end is coming -- all while couching it by stating that it's their "hope" not "plan". Which means they'll listen to all the advice from the experts before deciding one way or the other.

 

I really don't know what a gradual phasing in and guidance would look like.   My guess is that Trump is using his instincts to pit himself against the media knowing that by the time they actually begin to implement this phase in that the media will be on the wrong side of public sentiment.

 

With that said, public sentiment I'm sure is not ready to get back to work at this time.  They have been shell-shocked with social distancing and 24/7 news related to the Virus.  It's going to take some coaxing.

 

And unlike Cuomo, who can in detail explain things with empathy and data, Trump will have to somehow get the communication out that there is a coherent plan that has his medical team somehow on board.

 

I'm guessing that there is very little chance that most of the economy will roar right back.  I think it will be a regional approach, areas that are showing that they have things in control will be the first to get the go ahead's from their governors.   And state by state the governors will have too much pressure to get their workforce to get back to work.  I would think that they will advise for the elderly and those with pre existing afflictions to be extra careful and not go out unless necessary.  Which is very unfair but I'm guessing that will be on the table.  

 

And then the same jazz with the washing of hands, not shaking hands etc etc.

 

But, truth be told, I think they will need to have some sort of data of the mortality rates.  Right now the mortality rates are showing here in the U.S as 1.25%.  But it's actually a whole lot lower than that.  There are studies out there that show that the amount of people who have contracted the VIRUS who have gone undetected is anywhere from 500-1000%.  It makes sense because they are predominately testing those who are sickest and showing the most symptoms.  

 

It would be good if they could do random mass sampling throughout the country to get a good idea of what the actual contracted infected rate is along with the other data points that they have amassed and get the actual mortality rates.  My guess is that the actual mortality rate here in the U.S will probably be around .3%.  Most likely for those under 60 without health conditions it will be about as benign as the common flu and for those with respiratory, heart and cancer afflictions that it will be considerably more deadly.

 

But I think getting a true gauge of the mortality rate will play a long way in restoring public confidence to get them back to work.

 

I also don't think they guidance from the government will be ready by Easter.  I'm guessing about 4-8 weeks from now.

Edited March 24, 2020 by Magox

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

I am sure that is what Trump's team's suggestions will look like as well.  A gradual phasing approach.  Trump doesn't do nuance, he talks about things with a sledgehammer and since the country has been told ad nauseum to continue social distancing and then he comes out with his Two by Four that the U.S will be back in Biz soon it sends shock waves.

 

But in reality, he and Cuomo are most likely not that far apart, just that Cuomo's approach comes one from a bit more of empathy and factual data to make his case.  But again, they really are not that far apart because if you can get past the bluster which I understand is hard to do, Trump has excellent instincts and decision making and he is someone who listens to his advisers.  His job is not to go along with what his advisers say but to listen to them all and as commander in chief to make the best decision possible.  

 

I certainly hope he makes a good decision here and doesn't steer the country in the wrong direction.   This without doubt will be his most consequential decision.

 

With that said, all Trump can do is provide Federal guidance.  Ultimately it will be the governors and businesses that make the decision.  Don't get me wrong, federal guidance will be a powerful tool but it is the governors and businesses decision.

 

 

I haven't even read any of the other threads.  I can just imagine, I can generally understand what is going on in the threads and get similar information in the comments section from news outlets on social media.  Just a bunch of vapid back-and-forth.  

 

Don't get me wrong, we have some very good posters here but lots of it is just ughh.....

 

 

Hey Magox--part of me wants to join the parade with you.  A meeting somewhere in the middle, middle left or middle right makes the most sense.  I'm a Trump supporter, but consider myself pretty reasonable in general.  What you propose would generally make sense to me. 

 

The problem is that people are so ^%$#ing entrenched after 3+ years of garbage there is precious little common ground to be had.  I understand your concerns about Trump and his delivery, disagree on your perception on how Cuomo is perceived but give him credit for doing a tough job.  I am not sure how you get past the point of the entrenched masses, and frankly, I think we'll be at a point soon where Trump will simply act in his role as Chief Executive and do what he believes in the right thing to do on the federal level.  

 

In the end, we are here and we have to deal with it.  When all is said and done, if reasonable people disagree, Trump moves forward and Cuomo does what he feels is right for NY.  Ugly, sad, but certainly a byproduct of the past few years of hostility.  

Edited March 24, 2020 by leh-nerd skin-erd

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

Hey Magox--part of me wants to join the parade with you.  A meeting somewhere in the middle, middle left or middle right makes the most sense.  I'm a Trump supporter, but consider myself pretty reasonable in general.  What you propose would generally make sense to me. 

 

The problem is that people are so ^%$#ing entrenched after 3+ years of garbage there is precious little common ground to be had.  I understand your concerns about Trump and his delivery, disagree on your perception on how Cuomo is perceived but give him credit for doing a tough job.  I am not sure how you get past the point of the entrenched masses, and frankly, I think we'll be at a point soon where Trump will simply act in his role as Chief Executive and do what he believes in the right thing to do on the federal level.  

 

In the end, we are here and we have to deal with it.  When all is said and done, if reasonable people disagree, Trump moves forward and Cuomo does what he feels is fight for NY.  Ugly, sad, but certainly a byproduct of the past few years of hostility.  

 

Trump's supporters will ride with him to the end.  He needs to convince those outside of his base.  Let's be honest, he will never get the hardcore leftists or the center left media establishment types or for that matter the ones who want actual order and decorum and place more value in the establishments than anything else.   But there are large swaths of persuadables who are looking for direction.  I think he will need to come up with a cogent plan that is data driven with the approval of his Medical team.  If he can phase it in this manner, I think he will have the overwhelming support of the people.

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

7 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

Trump's supporters will ride with him to the end.  He needs to convince those outside of his base.  Let's be honest, he will never get the hardcore leftists or the center left media establishment types or for that matter the ones who want actual order and decorum and place more value in the establishments than anything else.   But there are large swaths of persuadables who are looking for direction.  I think he will need to come up with a cogent plan that is data driven with the approval of his Medical team.  If he can phase it in this manner, I think he will have the overwhelming support of the people.

Again, slight disagreement.  His supporters will ride with him up to the point where he %$#@s up royally, and then they'll call him on the carpet for ^%$#ing up royally.  That was always the deal, though supporters have likely gotten a bit more defensive over him since he was painted a treasonous rat b%stard by, well, some treasonous rat b%stards.  

 

No reasonable person wants death and bodies in the street like it is Vienna in the 1300s with bodies tossed into the catacombs of St. Stephens.  No reasonable person is willing to trade a million deaths for 4% growth in the equities market.  But when you cannot have a reasonable discussion about alternatives without being branded as a believer in such things, it's tough to move forward because the 'persuadables' often get most of their data from at least one media source.  

 

Let's hope you're correct on a cogent plan, let's hope many folks get onboard and let's hope that the plan works. Let's also have him on the teleprompter when he rolls it out. ?

[Bakin]

1 hour ago, 3rdnlng said:

It's going to be a nightmare to slowly get the economy back working by fazing it in. We can let those young workers back to working in the restaurant but what about crowding diners together?  This will be played out over and over in many different ways. 

Back In the day we used to have smoking sections in restaurants. 
Maybe now we will have a senior citizen section?  Or a COVID+ section?