Edge in the upcoming draft

[OldTimer1960]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Two very good ones is a bit unlikely. Few teams manage "2 very good backs." But yeah, they need a second one who's good. Yeldon might be that guy, but my guess is we bring in another guy at some point, through FA or the draft.

Denver just signed Bennett and they also have Lindsey.  The league always evolves it went to more pass prevalent offenses and defenses had to adjust by finding quicker and lighter players.  It wouldn't be the worst thing to have an offense that is very good at running to attack those lighter defenses.

 

I love what Singletary showed last season, but he isn't built to handle 20 touches per game for 16 games - really not many guys are.  I think it would be a good idea to pair Singletary with another good RB.  If there isn't good value at OT (don't think there will be), DE (don't think there will be) or CB (I think there will be some good value there), then why not a RB like Akers or Edwards-Helaire in round 2?  Splitting 25-30 touches per game between two good backs helps the offense and takes pressure off of Allen.

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Thanks for the response.  I think that most people think of BPA means staying at your draft slot and taking the highest rated player regardless of position.   I do not think that all those 150-200-300 players are that widely separated in value (best), so team needs and position choice also  play a role in the guys who are maybe in your 48-59 window.  Beane has shown he will spend lower draft picks to move up 5-10 slots when he thinks there is a real gem player available.

I think most of us agree with this point.  There may be groups of players at same and different positions that a team has graded closely.  

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Thanks for the response.  I think that most people think of BPA means staying at your draft slot and taking the highest rated player regardless of position.   I do not think that all those 150-200-300 players are that widely separated in value (best), so team needs and position choice also  play a role in the guys who are maybe in your 48-59 window.  Beane has shown he will spend lower draft picks to move up 5-10 slots when he thinks there is a real gem player available.

 

 

What Beane has actually showed is that he will spend lower draft picks to move up ... under certain circumstances. Specifically, he'll spend those lower picks if he has two picks in a round and can give one up while keeping a pick in each round. He's only emptied a round twice, both times when he's already had an extra pick earlier (he emptied the 4th round last year when he'd already made four picks in the first three rounds, and he emptied the 2nd round in 2018 when he'd already had two picks.

 

I haven't looked, so correct me if I'm wrong, but I think we now have no extra picks to trade away this year without creating empty rounds. He has no history on doing this.

[Thurman#1]

24 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Denver just signed Bennett and they also have Lindsey.  The league always evolves it went to more pass prevalent offenses and defenses had to adjust by finding quicker and lighter players.  It wouldn't be the worst thing to have an offense that is very good at running to attack those lighter defenses.

 

I love what Singletary showed last season, but he isn't built to handle 20 touches per game for 16 games - really not many guys are.  I think it would be a good idea to pair Singletary with another good RB.  If there isn't good value at OT (don't think there will be), DE (don't think there will be) or CB (I think there will be some good value there), then why not a RB like Akers or Edwards-Helaire in round 2?  Splitting 25-30 touches per game between two good backs helps the offense and takes pressure off of Allen.

 

 

 

Who's Bennett? Denver signed Bennett?

 

In any case, I didn't say there are no teams with two very good backs. I said there are FEW teams with two very good backs, and that is correct.

 

As for why not an RB in round two, because you can get NFL-ready backs much later every year and even more so this year, a very good year for good RB prospects  in rounds 3 - 5.

 

I do agree with you that we need another good back, but you can get a good back pretty easily these days, later in the draft or cheap in FA a guy like Carlos Hyde or Dion Lewis, someone like that. That's how I guess they will do it. It's how they filled the RB gaps last year, a mid-round pick and some cheaper good but not great FAs. I wouldn't expect them to go RB any earlier than the 3rd, or probably the 4th.

 

We'll see, I guess.

Edited March 26, 2020 by Thurman#1

[OldTimer1960]

33 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Who's Bennett? Denver signed Bennett?

 

In any case, I didn't say there are no teams with two very good backs. I said there are FEW teams with two very good backs, and that is correct.

 

As for why not an RB in round two, because you can get NFL-ready backs much later every year and even more so this year, a very good year for good RB prospects  in rounds 3 - 5.

 

I do agree with you that we need another good back, but you can get a good back pretty easily these days, later in the draft or cheap in FA a guy like Carlos Hyde or Dion Lewis, someone like that. That's how I guess they will do it. It's how they filled the RB gaps last year, a mid-round pick and some cheaper good but not great FAs. I wouldn't expect them to go RB any earlier than the 3rd, or probably the 4th.

 

We'll see, I guess.

Oops, meant Melvin Gordon.  I don't know where I got Bennett from.

[BarleyNY]

Edge is definitely a need that we should address.  Murphy is a FA after this season and Hughes has two seasons left on his deal.  Time to start getting the next wave of DEs in the door. I see is a slew of players that could be taken in the second or (more likely) third round that can be good DEs.  If I’m Beane I’m coming away with a developmental starting DE with upside in this draft. 

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

Edge is definitely a need that we should address.  Murphy is a FA after this season and Hughes has two seasons left on his deal.  Time to start getting the next wave of DEs in the door. I see is a slew of players that could be taken in the second or (more likely) third round that can be good DEs.  If I’m Beane I’m coming away with a developmental starting DE with upside in this draft. 

Who do you like among the DEs for pick 54?  I could *maybe* see Okwara fro Notre Dame or possibly Greenard from Florida.  I wanted to like Anae, but I just don't see it (not that I am an expert).  I wasn't that impressed with Terrell Lewis, either.

 

Alton Robinson looks to have some upside, but round 2 seems a little rich for him.

 

i have to believe that there will be better prospects available at 54 at CB and RB.  

 

I just don't think that the DE class is very good this year.  If I am right, it is too bad, because the Bills could certainly use a young talent there.

[maryland-bills-fan]

13 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Two very good ones is a bit unlikely. Few teams manage "2 very good backs." But yeah, they need a second one who's good. Yeldon might be that guy, but my guess is we bring in another guy at some point, through FA or the draft.

Gee, Thurman. You forgot Kenneth Davis already?

 

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Who's Bennett? Denver signed Bennett?

 

In any case, I didn't say there are no teams with two very good backs. I said there are FEW teams with two very good backs, and that is correct.

 

As for why not an RB in round two, because you can get NFL-ready backs much later every year and even more so this year, a very good year for good RB prospects  in rounds 3 - 5.

 

I do agree with you that we need another good back, but you can get a good back pretty easily these days, later in the draft or cheap in FA a guy like Carlos Hyde or Dion Lewis, someone like that. That's how I guess they will do it. It's how they filled the RB gaps last year, a mid-round pick and some cheaper good but not great FAs. I wouldn't expect them to go RB any earlier than the 3rd, or probably the 4th.

 

We'll see, I guess.

If there is an injury, do you want the running back to be somebody one step away from being a street free agent?

6 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

Edge is definitely a need that we should address.  Murphy is a FA after this season and Hughes has two seasons left on his deal.  Time to start getting the next wave of DEs in the door. I see is a slew of players that could be taken in the second or (more likely) third round that can be good DEs.  If I’m Beane I’m coming away with a developmental starting DE with upside in this draft. 

I don't agree.  You are in the "drafting for need" extreme as opposed to the "BPA" extreme.  So gauche. !!

[Saxum]

On 3/24/2020 at 2:52 PM, CEN-CAL17 said:

I like the kid out of North Dakota St. Derrek Tuszka.

He is more of a 3-4 OLB but the kid can get after it. 6’3” 245, conference defensive player of the year. 13.5 sacks I think it was. Super quick off the ball. His 3 cone was a 6.8 which is quick. A non stop motor type guy. I see him being a round 5 guy maybe 4 if a team falls in love with him. But he’s roughly the same size as Lorax. More edge capable vs OLB.

 

Remember Lorenzo (One Man Gang) Alexander used to be much bigger and lost weight as he got older deliberately.   He was 289 in combine,  he was a TE briefly, gained weight, moved to defense line and lost weight to be more explosive and played LB. Can Derrek Tuszka add weight and still be effective and be fast enough to play special teams so he can be on active roster?  If not I cannot see Bills drafting him.

[BarleyNY]

9 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Who do you like among the DEs for pick 54?  I could *maybe* see Okwara fro Notre Dame or possibly Greenard from Florida.  I wanted to like Anae, but I just don't see it (not that I am an expert).  I wasn't that impressed with Terrell Lewis, either.

 

Alton Robinson looks to have some upside, but round 2 seems a little rich for him.

 

i have to believe that there will be better prospects available at 54 at CB and RB.  

 

I just don't think that the DE class is very good this year.  If I am right, it is too bad, because the Bills could certainly use a young talent there.

I wish I could give you a good answer.  I have done zero film study on those players. I’ve just been reading draft reports on some of them.

[Dkollidas]

Honestly I’m getting the vibe they’re going to roll with Addison/Hughes and Murphy/Jefferson/Johnson. It’s got enough depth that they can rotate well enough and keep guys fresh. 
 

If they see a guy like Epenesa slip, he could be a target in round 2. But really I think they’re going to look to draft a running back relatively early, and add at least one more  receiver on Day 3.

[BarleyNY]

5 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 

I don't agree.  You are in the "drafting for need" extreme as opposed to the "BPA" extreme.  So gauche. !!

Gauche!?!  How dare you!  Well, actually that’s fair point if it means we’d be taking a lesser prospect because we forced the position.  But I really didn’t mean it that way.  I just meant that we should look to find a DE that can develop into a good starter in the third or fourth round range.  There should be worthwhile prospects in that range and we can always move around a bit if needed.  If it doesn’t work out, then so be it.  But we should be proactive at the DE position if we can be. 

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Gee, Thurman. You forgot Kenneth Davis already?

 

 

 

No, I didn't forget Kenneth Davis. He's a perfect example of what I'm saying, that you don't need two very good backs. Davis was a good back. Not very good. He was good. You look at how he looked when he wasn't running behind the Bills absolutely excellent OL and spelling Thurman against defenses Thurman had already worn out, and it wasn't that great. 4.0 yards a carry in his first three years in the league in Green Bay. The Packers cut him after three years. The best offer he got was Buffalo where Thurman (already there for a year) was clearly going to get most of the snaps. I really liked Kenny Davis, he was an important part of that team, but he wasn't very good.

 

Then in Buffalo, fresh later in the games and running behind Jim Ritcher, Kent Hull and the rest, suddenly he manages 4.4 YPC the rest of his career. A good back in a good situation. He was a fine back, but he wasn't among, say, the top ten to twenty backs in the league, a reasonable definition of "very good."

 

 

11 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 

If there is an injury, do you want the running back to be somebody one step away from being a street free agent?

I don't agree.  You are in the "drafting for need" extreme as opposed to the "BPA" extreme.  So gauche. !!

 

If there is an injury, I would be perfectly happy with someone like Carlos Hyde, Spencer Ware, Devonta Freeman, Ty Montgomery, available good free agents sitting at home sweating as their projected contracts shrink, or a rookie like 247 pound AJ Dillon, who ran a 4.52 40 at the combine, or Lamical Perine, Joshua Kelley, Darrynton Evans, Scottie Phillips, or Ke'Shawn Vaughn. I'm plenty confident in Beane to look at that group and find a good solid pro running back, which is what the Bills need. He found Singletary in the 3rd, and this is a much better year for backs.

 

And again, no, I'm with Beane, as a BPA guy. The guy absolutely desperate for a running back in the 2nd, whoever he is ... that's the guy who's desperate to fill his need. You know, the guy so desperate for an RB that he runs over to a thread about edge rushers and does his best to kidnap the thread so he can talk more about his 2nd round RB obsession.  That's need.

 

I could see them going RB in the 2nd if it's BPA, say if Taylor or Dobbins fell to us and was clearly the BPA. I just don't think that's very likely.

Edited March 27, 2020 by Thurman#1

[maryland-bills-fan]

Davis was considered a 1st round draft pick by 1986 NFL Draft by Mel Kiper and Gil Brandt,^[1   . As a junior, he rushed for 1,611 yards (#3 in the NCAA) and 16 touchdowns, earning him a first team selection on the College Football All-America Team. He also had the 5th most votes of all candidates for the Heisman Trophy that year. He was selected by the Packers in the second round of the 1986 NFL Draft.^[6]    As a rookie, he was the team's leading rusher with 519 yards, returned 12 kickoffs for 231 yards, and caught 21 passes for 142 yards. In 1987, he was their leading rusher again, although he only rushed for 413 yards. Davis played only 9 games with the Packers in 1988 due to injuries, and signed with the Bills after the season ended.   In 1990, he rushed for 302 yards on just 64 carries (a 4.7 yards per carry average), caught 9 passes for 78 yards, and scored 5 touchdowns.  In 1992, Davis had the best season of his career. He rushed for 613 yards, caught 15 passes for 80 yards, returned 14 kickoffs for 251 yards, and scored a career-high 6 touchdowns. But he is best remembered for his superb performance in the post season. In Buffalo's wild card game against the Houston Oilers, Thomas was knocked out of the game early with a hip injury, and Houston built up a 28–3 first half lead. Then, they increased it to 35–3 early in the third quarter when backup quarterback Frank Reich's pass was intercepted and returned for a touchdown. But in what became known as The Comeback, Buffalo stormed back and won the game 41–38 in overtime; the rally from the 32-point deficit^[8] was the largest comeback in NFL history. Davis was instrumental in the Bills victory, rushing for 68 yards, catching 2 passes for 25 yards, and scoring the first touchdown of the game for Buffalo.    cf https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Davis_(American_football)

 

Okay, so the facts are that Davis was the backup, played well and at least once got the Bills into the Superbowl.  I like that, although others might differ.  He was a 1-2ndr round guy and was drafted in the second round.   I don't think it was a wasted pickup for the Bills. 

[Thurman#1]

Yes, I guess we agree on that. He was good, not very good.

 

And was by no means a wasted pickup for the Bills. He was indeed a second round guy, but he absolutely did not live up to that, which was why the Pack cut him after his third year. Picking him in the second round was a mistake. Getting him on a backup contract as a free agent was a great move.

 

So doing what I want us to do here, picking up a solid guy as an FA, was a great move for the Bills. And doing what you want us to do, drafting Kenny Davis, a guy who has what you and I both want in a platooning second RB, in the 2nd round, was a bad move by the Pack. Exactly.

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

The Athletic has us picking up Akers in the third:

 

"Round 3, pick 86: Cam Akers, running back, Florida State

 

"In recent years, the Bills have taken a liking to veteran running backs. So far, they haven’t addressed the position in free agency, leaving only T.J. Yeldon behind Devin Singletary in the backfield. At this point, maybe it’s fair to consider Singletary the veteran presence at the position. He’s already looking like a potential star who also sets the right example off the field after having a year to learn from Frank Gore.

 

"Both McDermott and Beane have talked about the need to have multiple backs. This is a deep class at running back, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them dip into the pool of talent at some point. While this may seem early to take a back, [my color and bolding] Florida State’s Cam Akers presents a lot of value. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler had him as a third-round pick in his latest mock draft and he may be too good to pass up there. His attacking style could be a nice complement to the shifty, patient Singletary."

 

https://theathletic.com/1700219/2020/03/25/bills-seven-round-mock-draft-how-free-agency-shook-things-up/

 

Now, see, this would make sense, if Akers is still there, which would be far from a sure thing. What really is all but a sure thing is that there'll be good value at RB in this draft through the 3rd, 4th and 5th round.

 

It's a good seven-round mock, OL Wanogho in the 2nd, and edge rusher Willekes in the 4th, among others. That would be sweet.

Edited March 27, 2020 by Thurman#1

[OldTimer1960]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

The Athletic has us picking up Akers in the third:

 

"Round 3, pick 86: Cam Akers, running back, Florida State

 

"In recent years, the Bills have taken a liking to veteran running backs. So far, they haven’t addressed the position in free agency, leaving only T.J. Yeldon behind Devin Singletary in the backfield. At this point, maybe it’s fair to consider Singletary the veteran presence at the position. He’s already looking like a potential star who also sets the right example off the field after having a year to learn from Frank Gore.

 

"Both McDermott and Beane have talked about the need to have multiple backs. This is a deep class at running back, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them dip into the pool of talent at some point. While this may seem early to take a back, [my color and bolding] Florida State’s Cam Akers presents a lot of value. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler had him as a third-round pick in his latest mock draft and he may be too good to pass up there. His attacking style could be a nice complement to the shifty, patient Singletary."

 

https://theathletic.com/1700219/2020/03/25/bills-seven-round-mock-draft-how-free-agency-shook-things-up/

 

Now, see, this would make sense, if Akers is still there, which would be far from a sure thing. What really is all but a sure thing is that there'll be good value at RB in this draft through the 3rd, 4th and 5th round.

 

It's a good seven-round mock, OL Wanogho in the 2nd, and edge rusher Willekes in the 4th, among others. That would be sweet.

I would love to get Akers, but can't imagine him being available in the last 1/3 of round 3.  

[maryland-bills-fan]

11 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I would love to get Akers, but can't imagine him being ava find milable in the last 1/3 of round 3.  

As I find more about the RB's, I'm finding this knock on Akers.   Although he is a good physical specimen and got good production the fact that he played on a college team without a great QB and with a poor offensive line both hurts and helps the estimate of how he would do in the pro's.   Taking those views as two extremes: [1] imagine how much better he would have done with a real OL?  [2] he doesn't know how to run behind a real offensive line and maybe he can't learn.   ....  He may not have learned how to use good offensive linemen to set up their blocks to break loose and use patience to let plays develop before making his move.  Can he still learn this?   He may not take care of the ball well and has never had to learn to pass block- on a poorer team they didn't waste him doing that. ....  He might come with some risks. Remember EJ who on paper was a great QB for his college, but was a step slow in  processing information in the pros.  Could be great. Could be a flop/

 

[gonzo1105]

35 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

As I find more about the RB's, I'm finding this knock on Akers.   Although he is a good physical specimen and got good production the fact that he played on a college team without a great QB and with a poor offensive line both hurts and helps the estimate of how he would do in the pro's.   Taking those views as two extremes: [1] imagine how much better he would have done with a real OL?  [2] he doesn't know how to run behind a real offensive line and maybe he can't learn.   ....  He may not have learned how to use good offensive linemen to set up their blocks to break loose and use patience to let plays develop before making his move.  Can he still learn this?   He may not take care of the ball well and has never had to learn to pass block- on a poorer team they didn't waste him doing that. ....  He might come with some risks. Remember EJ who on paper was a great QB for his college, but was a step slow in  processing information in the pros.  Could be great. Could be a flop/

 

 

I'm an FSU fan and trust me Akers is an absolute stud. He'd constantly be getting mugged at the line of scrimmage and get 2-4 yards. He usually broke a couple of big ones a game, which is what got him his majority of yards. He's also a great receiver out of the backfield. He's very comparable to Dalvin Cook in my opinion. If Cook went in the first and Akers goes in the 3rd its an absolute steal.

 

I could have told you EJ Manuel was gonna be a bust and probably did on these boards but everyone looked at his stats and said man he's got a really good shot. The thing about Manuel was he was a huge reason why Florida State went 12-2 in 2012. That is not a positive. That team was loaded and he cost FSU both games against NC State and Florida. If Jameis Winston started over Manuel as a true Freshmen I have little doubt that FSU would have been back to back national champions.

[maryland-bills-fan]

On 3/27/2020 at 2:40 PM, gonzo1105 said:

 

I'm an FSU fan and trust me Akers is an absolute stud. He'd constantly be getting mugged at the line of scrimmage and get 2-4 yards. He usually broke a couple of big ones a game, which is what got him his majority of yards. He's also a great receiver out of the backfield. He's very comparable to Dalvin Cook in my opinion. If Cook went in the first and Akers goes in the 3rd its an absolute steal.

 

I could have told you EJ Manuel was gonna be a bust and probably did on these boards but everyone looked at his stats and said man he's got a really good shot. The thing about Manuel was he was a huge reason why Florida State went 12-2 in 2012. That is not a positive. That team was loaded and he cost FSU both games against NC State and Florida. If Jameis Winston started over Manuel as a true Freshmen I have little doubt that FSU would have been back to back national champions.

Glad to hear from someone who saw him a lot. Of the top 5, he is the most likely to be available at #54 or even (on maybe a quarter of the mocks) 5-10 picks below #54.

[BillsFanForever19]

I really think they're done at DE. Hughes isn't going anywhere. Mario Addison was brought in to start on the other side. Quinton Jefferson was Seattle's most consistent pass rusher last season and will be first off the bench, at worst. Trent Murphy is still on the roster and I don't think Beane and McDermott are as eager to dump him as the fan base is. I could see him restructuring if push came to shove. And then there's Daryl Johnson who showed a lot of promise as a late round pick last season. 

 

That's 5. Traditionally, you keep 4 DE's. Even if they were to move on from Murphy, I think DE's all set.

Edited March 29, 2020 by BillsFanForever19