Edge in the upcoming draft

[soflabillsfan1]

I don't see anyway Dobbins falls to us in the 2nd.  Guy is way too talented.  If he did though, we'd be fools to pass.  Devin is a really nice player but I don't see him as a workhorse back in the NFL. As far as edge rushers, I think Jabari Zuniga From Florida in the 3rd would be a steal.  IMO he's better than Greenard.  He just unfortunately sprained his ankle this season and never got healthy.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Yes. DE, OLB, RB in the draft. Then get a punter.

[Dkollidas]

I think they’ve put themselves in a strong position to draft BPA. If a guy like Epenesa, Gross-Matos, or Baun fall into the 2nd round, I could see Beane moving up a bit to snag one of those guys.

 

The only position I believe they’re still pretty thin at is running back. But there are plenty of guys still on the market and the position can be filled on Day-3 of the draft as well. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You're missing the point.

 

It doesn't matter whether there are 10 defensive ends or offensive tackles out there or one each or 47 each.

 

Ranking guys against their own position group doesn't matter. It doesn't matter whether at #54 you get the best at a given position, the 8th best or the leventy-seventh best. What matters is only how good he is compared to everybody. If he's still available and he's the 40th best player in the draft, the BPA, terrific, grab him. That guy might be the 12th best WR this year, or the 2nd best TE, but that doesn't matter, not even a slight tiny bit.

 

"Which position do you feed with your top remaining draft pick," you ask? Dude, here's the answer ... wait for it ... whichever position the BPA plays. Nobody's pure BPA, including Beane, they won't be picking a QB in the second this year, but they also won't pick a guy because he's the best available RB, they simply won't do this, nor should they. This is my opinion, but that's entirely beside the point ... the point is that that's how our GM rolls, thank goodness, because it's the smart way to go. Over the past three years he's said it dozens of times in different ways, again and again, and thank goodness he gets this, because it's how the best teams work.

 

Here's one, but again, there are dozens: 

“When we get to draft day we’re not going to reach. We’re not. I have seen that and it rarely works when you reach,” he said. “I’ve seen where decisions were made and it’s decided that a team will not come out of the draft without ‘X’ position filled. I have a lot of examples in my head right now that happened.

 

“Most teams say they won’t reach. I’ve told my guys to hold me accountable. If they see me starting to reach somewhere that doesn’t match our value I’ve told them to grab me.

 

“We can’t just go say, ‘Hey I’m going to take this guy in the first and this guy in the second and now we’ve checked those boxes.’ We have to draft best player available.”

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/04/13/bills-g-m-brandon-beane-we-have-to-draft-best-player-available/

You are a bit locked into your own view and haven't listened to what is going on.  First of all,   "....What matters is only how good he is compared to everybody...."  Do you really believe that there are going to be 12 top notch defensive tackles or offensive tackles in the draft this year?  I'll give you a chance to tell us all, the last time that a draft produced the top 10 DE's  AND OT 's in the league.  We will wait and evalutate that say in 2022.   The reaching is going on by the other teams, if we can trust the mock draft people. ...   This year there are 3-5 running backs who would be able to spell or replace Singletary AND there is a hole on the Bills for backup RB, AND there is not much available by trade or FA AND Beane has made no effort to fill that hole. It looks like one of those top 5 RB may be best player available and ALSO fill a need for the Bills. ..  That looks to be the plan.  

     It is bad thinking to fasten onto a mantra and demand it has to be followed regardless.  Let's say the BPA is a center or a safety. We have very good players at those positions so the rookie would be sitting on the bench for 2-3 years, learning the pro game. We might agree that would not be smart.

 

The top 3 RB are not at reach at #54 and even the top 5 are not a reach. Bean is playing his cards well. A good one will drop to us or be available with a trade up.

[njbuff]

On 3/24/2020 at 2:35 PM, ndirish1978 said:

I don't get this rush to draft a RB in the 2nd. Edge and CB are much bigger concerns. We could roll out there tomorrow with a street FA, Yeldon and Singletary and be ok.

 

If we stay put in the 2nd we're looking at Weaver from Boise State, Okwara from ND and Uche from Michigan being the top Edge performers estimated to still be on the board by most mocks. Conversely at CB we're likely looking at Dantzler from Miss St, Arnette from OSU (my fav), or Bryce Hall from VA and Troy Pride from ND being the top available guys. I see some more value at S in Chin and Dugger in rd 2 or WR in Pittman or Claypool, but who knows. I'm a big AJ Dillon guy and he should be a rd 3-4 guy at RB. I'd rather go Edge/WR/CB/S in Rd 2 than RB. 

 

It's because a guy like Cam Akers is a better prospect than any of the guys you mention here.

 

If Dobbins, Swift, Taylor and Akers (all of whom are better than any of the names you mention) aren't there at 54, then the Bills might go with an edge player.

 

Pretty simple.

[maryland-bills-fan]

On 3/24/2020 at 2:35 PM, ndirish1978 said:

I don't get this rush to draft a RB in the 2nd. Edge and CB are much bigger concerns. We could roll out there tomorrow with a street FA, Yeldon and Singletary and be ok.

 

If we stay put in the 2nd we're looking at Weaver from Boise State, Okwara from ND and Uche from Michigan being the top Edge performers estimated to still be on the board by most mocks. Conversely at CB we're likely looking at Dantzler from Miss St, Arnette from OSU (my fav), or Bryce Hall from VA and Troy Pride from ND being the top available guys. I see some more value at S in Chin and Dugger in rd 2 or WR in Pittman or Claypool, but who knows. I'm a big AJ Dillon guy and he should be a rd 3-4 guy at RB. I'd rather go Edge/WR/CB/S in Rd 2 than RB. 

 

 

A second RB who doesn't even play half the runs still gets 7-10 carries a game.  He carries the frigging ball  and can make or break the game.  A third string defensive end, who still has to learn the prog game and plays 3-4 plays a game,  and most of the time it doesn't matter what he does- the playcall takes him out of the play.  Which is more valuable?  IF your 3rd string defensive end (what you will get with not a top 10 draft pick, not a top 20 draft pick, not a first round pick, not at early or middle second round pick) gets hurt, who even notices?

 

[ny33]

On 3/24/2020 at 1:16 PM, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

The Bills have 9 defensive lineman on their roster right now.  Why sign all of them give them signing bonuses only to turn around and cut some. 

 

And I'm sure I'll get many responses back to cut Murphy but there's also other threads and articles stating he's valuable to the team, admittedly somewhat overpaid, but you're not likely to get a better return once you take the cap hit on him and sign someone else in particualr a rookie filling the shoes of  the defensive lineman who played the most snaps last season.

I agree; it feels like they didn’t see value at edge early in the draft and went for FA instead. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

50 minutes ago, ny33 said:

I agree; it feels like they didn’t see value at edge early in the draft and went for FA instead. 

 

True the question is then how do you ever get young?  They are in decent shape at tackle with Phillips and Oliver and even Jefferson is only 27.  But at end they are a little gray in the tooth.  I believe this is Murphy's last contract year so could see next year replacing him wit ha high draft pick, though good chance they won't have a low pick

[ny33]

5 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

True the question is then how do you ever get young?  They are in decent shape at tackle with Phillips and Oliver and even Jefferson is only 27.  But at end they are a little gray in the tooth.  I believe this is Murphy's last contract year so could see next year replacing him wit ha high draft pick, though good chance they won't have a low pick

Yeah, I think we are ok waiting till next year. Could easily see us drafting DE twice in the first three rounds. 

[GoBills808]

love a good edge

[qwksilver]

2 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

True the question is then how do you ever get young?  They are in decent shape at tackle with Phillips and Oliver and even Jefferson is only 27.  But at end they are a little gray in the tooth.  I believe this is Murphy's last contract year so could see next year replacing him wit ha high draft pick, though good chance they won't have a low pick

That was one of my questions. I think we have to take one  this year or we will be looking at FA next year as well.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

22 minutes ago, qwksilver said:

That was one of my questions. I think we have to take one  this year or we will be looking at FA next year as well.

 

But it makes little sense to sign 3 DL payers, pay signing bonuses to then cut someone.  Currently there are 9 DL on roster, suppose you could cut Johnson, maybe get him to PS if he gets picked up by someone else so be it.

[qwksilver]

24 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

But it makes little sense to sign 3 DL payers, pay signing bonuses to then cut someone.  Currently there are 9 DL on roster, suppose you could cut Johnson, maybe get him to PS if he gets picked up by someone else so be it.

McDermott does like to rotate them in so maybe we keep 10 or maybe Murphy gets let go or they trade someone. They definitely need to get younger and find someone for next year.

[Mat68]

I dont see the value there at 54.  A De selection at that point you are picking a position not the beat player.  Maybe one of the 2 Big 10 Des fall.  Yetur-Matos or Espinosa?? Most likley they are gone.  At 54 you are in a prime position for offensive skill players imo.

[qwksilver]

16 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

I dont see the value there at 54.  A De selection at that point you are picking a position not the beat player.  Maybe one of the 2 Big 10 Des fall.  Yetur-Matos or Espinosa?? Most likley they are gone.  At 54 you are in a prime position for offensive skill players imo.

Agreed more than likely DE is not a great value ar 54. CB, RB or OT works though. Although I could see Epenesa falling to the 2nd round with the poor combine. That would be interesting.

[Mat68]

6 minutes ago, qwksilver said:

Agreed more than likely DE is not a great value ar 54. CB, RB or OT works though. Although I could see Epenesa falling to the 2nd round with the poor combine. That would be interesting.

Ya him an Matos dont look like first rd Des to me.  Kinda like Lawson here.  You pick a guy in Rd 1 at De you expect sacks, hurries, and big plays.  Being a solid, not flashy De on day 2 makes more sense.

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

You are a bit locked into your own view and haven't listened to what is going on.  First of all,   "....What matters is only how good he is compared to everybody...."  Do you really believe that there are going to be 12 top notch defensive tackles or offensive tackles in the draft this year?  I'll give you a chance to tell us all, the last time that a draft produced the top 10 DE's  AND OT 's in the league.  We will wait and evalutate that say in 2022.   The reaching is going on by the other teams, if we can trust the mock draft people. ...   This year there are 3-5 running backs who would be able to spell or replace Singletary AND there is a hole on the Bills for backup RB, AND there is not much available by trade or FA AND Beane has made no effort to fill that hole. It looks like one of those top 5 RB may be best player available and ALSO fill a need for the Bills. ..  That looks to be the plan.  

     It is bad thinking to fasten onto a mantra and demand it has to be followed regardless.  Let's say the BPA is a center or a safety. We have very good players at those positions so the rookie would be sitting on the bench for 2-3 years, learning the pro game. We might agree that would not be smart.

 

The top 3 RB are not at reach at #54 and even the top 5 are not a reach. Bean is playing his cards well. A good one will drop to us or be available with a trade up.

 

 

Dude, if you want to say I'm not listening, fine I guess, but it takes one to know one, and you're not listening either.

 

You keep focusing in on whether there are going to be 12 top notch DTs or DEs in the draft. And for what is now the third time, that is completely and entirely irrelevant. More, you may keep wanting to restrict our choices to DT, DE or RB, but that's a false choice. There are few positions they would not consider in the 2nd ... QB of course,  but that's just about it. If I was going to add another position in there as 2nd least likely to be picked in the 2nd, it would probably be RB. TE or G, maybe, as well?

 

We would have good use for CB, a DB jack of all trades like Dugger, OL, WR, TE, LB, DL.

 

What they won't do, though, is draft a position or player because of this year's needs.

 

In the end, the only thing that matters is whether a guy is BPA. If he is, then terrific, pick him. If he's not then where he ranks within his position group is only a reason to make a mistake and reach for him. That is all the relevance it has.

 

And if you want to say that BPA is a mantra ... fine, it's a mantra. But it's the mantra of Brandon Beane, among others, and the mantra as well of pretty much every single excellent GM in the league.

 

This year in RBs, the interesting thing is precisely that there are so many guys who would be good solid value in the 3rd and 4th rounds, guys like Perine, Kelley and Dillon. Good guys will likely be available even in the 5th. That's the range where an RB will be BPA a pretty fair amount of the time.

Edited March 26, 2020 by Thurman#1

[NewEra]

On 3/24/2020 at 3:00 AM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

We have our #1 RB going forward. They don't need to spend a #2 on RB.  Doesn't make much sense to pay someone more to be a backup/injury insurance. They've noticed that you can get a starter level RB later in the draft than you can most other positions. It's certainly not impossible, but not likely.

 

Also, your statement that "there are a number of players who can play edge at a high level" is questionable. People are always looking for good edge talent, as you can find plenty of replacement-level talent but not much in the way of guys who can pressure the QB. Teams are always looking and rarely finding. In the list of positions at which there are a number of guys who can play at a high level, RB is far higher than edge.

Until Singletary goes out and then we’re stuck with frank gore esque production.  We should have 2 good backs.  Not saying we have to take one with our first pick, but I’d like to have 2 very good backs.  You should too.

[Thurman#1]

10 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Until Singletary goes out and then we’re stuck with frank gore esque production.  We should have 2 good backs.  Not saying we have to take one with our first pick, but I’d like to have 2 very good backs.  You should too.

 

 

Two very good ones is a bit unlikely. Few teams manage "2 very good backs." But yeah, they need a second one who's good. Yeldon might be that guy, but my guess is we bring in another guy at some point, through FA or the draft.

[maryland-bills-fan]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Dude, if you want to say I'm not listening, fine I guess, but it takes one to know one, and you're not listening either.

 

You keep focusing in on whether there are going to be 12 top notch DTs or DEs in the draft. And for what is now the third time, that is completely and entirely irrelevant. More, you may keep wanting to restrict our choices to DT, DE or RB, but that's a false choice. There are few positions they would not consider in the 2nd ... QB of course,  but that's just about it. If I was going to add another position in there as 2nd least likely to be picked in the 2nd, it would probably be RB. TE or G, maybe, as well?

 

We would have good use for CB, a DB jack of all trades like Dugger, OL, WR, TE, LB, DL.

 

What they won't do, though, is draft a position or player because of this year's needs.

 

In the end, the only thing that matters is whether a guy is BPA. If he is, then terrific, pick him. If he's not then where he ranks within his position group is only a reason to make a mistake and reach for him. That is all the relevance it has.

 

And if you want to say that BPA is a mantra ... fine, it's a mantra. But it's the mantra of Brandon Beane, among others, and the mantra as well of pretty much every single excellent GM in the league.

 

This year in RBs, the interesting thing is precisely that there are so many guys who would be good solid value in the 3rd and 4th rounds, guys like Perine, Kelley and Dillon. Good guys will likely be available even in the 5th. That's the range where an RB will be BPA a pretty fair amount of the time.

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Dude, if you want to say I'm not listening, fine I guess, but it takes one to know one, and you're not listening either.

 

You keep focusing in on whether there are going to be 12 top notch DTs or DEs in the draft. And for what is now the third time, that is completely and entirely irrelevant. More, you may keep wanting to restrict our choices to DT, DE or RB, but that's a false choice. There are few positions they would not consider in the 2nd ... QB of course,  but that's just about it. If I was going to add another position in there as 2nd least likely to be picked in the 2nd, it would probably be RB. TE or G, maybe, as well?

 

We would have good use for CB, a DB jack of all trades like Dugger, OL, WR, TE, LB, DL.

 

What they won't do, though, is draft a position or player because of this year's needs.

 

In the end, the only thing that matters is whether a guy is BPA. If he is, then terrific, pick him. If he's not then where he ranks within his position group is only a reason to make a mistake and reach for him. That is all the relevance it has.

 

And if you want to say that BPA is a mantra ... fine, it's a mantra. But it's the mantra of Brandon Beane, among others, and the mantra as well of pretty much every single excellent GM in the league.

 

This year in RBs, the interesting thing is precisely that there are so many guys who would be good solid value in the 3rd and 4th rounds, guys like Perine, Kelley and Dillon. Good guys will likely be available even in the 5th. That's the range where an RB will be BPA a pretty fair amount of the time.

Thanks for the response.  I think that most people think of BPA means staying at your draft slot and taking the highest rated player regardless of position.   I do not think that all those 150-200-300 players are that widely separated in value (best), so team needs and position choice also  play a role in the guys who are maybe in your 48-59 window.  Beane has shown he will spend lower draft picks to move up 5-10 slots when he thinks there is a real gem player available.