Edge in the upcoming draft

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

The Bills have 9 defensive lineman on their roster right now.  Why sign all of them give them signing bonuses only to turn around and cut some. 

 

And I'm sure I'll get many responses back to cut Murphy but there's also other threads and articles stating he's valuable to the team, admittedly somewhat overpaid, but you're not likely to get a better return once you take the cap hit on him and sign someone else in particualr a rookie filling the shoes of  the defensive lineman who played the most snaps last season.

[RyanC883]

I think we get a Rd. 4 edge.  I don't envision one in the 2nd.  There do not seem to be many consensus high-value Edge players in this draft.  Like WR, they also appear to take some time to develop.  

[qwksilver]

4 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

I think we get a Rd. 4 edge.  I don't envision one in the 2nd.  There do not seem to be many consensus high-value Edge players in this draft.  Like WR, they also appear to take some time to develop.  

That's my point. Everyone in the clubhouse is 30+ (minus Johnson) so we will need to add some youth some where. The questions are who and how many? Maybe draft 1 this year and 1 in the next or more FAs next year. It's not a screaming need today but will be sooner than later. 

[MrEpsYtown]

Khalid Kareem is my kind of guy and the kind of guy I think McDermott would target. Long arms, nice size and strength, good run defender. Still has upside.  
 

Guys like Baun to me are too small for this scheme. Short arms etc...he’s a 3-4 OLB in my opinion. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

If an RB has a significant fall and is easily the best player on the board, yeah, I'd guess they would make the pick in that case.

 

For ex, if they have JK Dobbins ranked in the 30s and he falls to #54 as talked about in the "Mock with Dobbins" thread, yeah, that would make sense.

 burie

Oh, but whether you're getting the eighth-best at one position or the absolute best at another has no relevance or importance. What matters is whether another guy available at the time, whatever position he plays, is likely to become a better player. There's a rea t, a GM saying he goes BPA strategy - as Beane does - is pretty much saying that BPAATP isn't a factor in how he'll choose.

 

This year is a good year for WRs and a bad year for TEs, they say. GMs, though, won't be saying, yeah, we have this TE as the 55th best player but the 3rd best TE, and this receiver as the 40th best player, but only the ninth-best WR, so let's grab the TE 'cause he's the third-best TE this year. It doesn't matter how a guy ranks in this draft at his position, except that guys at a position that's rich might fall and become the BPA.

 

RB at #54 remains unlikely IMO. As you say though, we'll see.

Well, Do you really think that there are 10 defensive ends and offensive tackles out there this year?    I can not see taking the 10th best defensive end and seeing him buried on the practice squad or being a backup to a 3 or4 man rotation at DE.  A RB can play right away and a top one might become the starter or, at least, take a third of the running play snaps.  There are about 130 plays a game- maybe 50 offensive scrimage plays a game,  maybe 20 to 25 running plays... so you might expect this guy might get 7 or 8 carries a game.  He will be the only one carrying the ball on those plays. A back up DE might get 3-4 plays a game and he is only one of 11 defenders.  Which position do you feed with your top remaining draft pick?

Edited March 24, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan

[MrEpsYtown]

I’ll just add this...There are some edge players in college ranks who weight 240 lbs and have 31 inch arms. We ain’t drafting those guys. Anything smaller than Jerry Hughes is too small here, and I think he is right on the border. Look for those guys who are 6-3 plus, 33 inch plus arms, in the 260-280 range for this scheme. Guys who don’t have those types of measurables, I think you can ignore.  
 

More off the radar school guys who have length but need to put on weight like a Daryll Johnson make sense too. Like Trevis Gipson from Tulsa who has some skill and good length but probably has to gain like 10-15 lbs. 

Edited March 24, 2020 by MrEpsYtown

[ndirish1978]

I don't get this rush to draft a RB in the 2nd. Edge and CB are much bigger concerns. We could roll out there tomorrow with a street FA, Yeldon and Singletary and be ok.

 

If we stay put in the 2nd we're looking at Weaver from Boise State, Okwara from ND and Uche from Michigan being the top Edge performers estimated to still be on the board by most mocks. Conversely at CB we're likely looking at Dantzler from Miss St, Arnette from OSU (my fav), or Bryce Hall from VA and Troy Pride from ND being the top available guys. I see some more value at S in Chin and Dugger in rd 2 or WR in Pittman or Claypool, but who knows. I'm a big AJ Dillon guy and he should be a rd 3-4 guy at RB. I'd rather go Edge/WR/CB/S in Rd 2 than RB. 

Edited March 24, 2020 by ndirish1978

[Mr. WEO]

Face it,  the Draft is always the ultimate edging experience for true fans.... 

[papazoid]

if the draft was today....i'd say their first pick will be a RB

 

that could change via free agency

 

prior to free ageny, i would have said edge....but not anymore

Edited March 24, 2020 by papazoid

[OldTimer1960]

7 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

I don't get this rush to draft a RB in the 2nd. Edge and CB are much bigger concerns. We could roll out there tomorrow with a street FA, Yeldon and Singletary and be ok.

 Agree that DE and CB are more important positions and harder to fill than RB, but I think DE won’t be close to BPA at 54.  There are *maybe* a couple of guys like Greenard and Anae to think about there, but I’m willing to bet that there will be CB, and especially RB higher on most boards available at 54 than the DEs there,  I’m not an expert, but it seems more like you’ll have to talk yourself into really liking any of the DEs vs actually liking prospects at other positions.

[CEN-CAL17]

I like the kid out of North Dakota St. Derrek Tuszka.

He is more of a 3-4 OLB but the kid can get after it. 6’3” 245, conference defensive player of the year. 13.5 sacks I think it was. Super quick off the ball. His 3 cone was a 6.8 which is quick. A non stop motor type guy. I see him being a round 5 guy maybe 4 if a team falls in love with him. But he’s roughly the same size as Lorax. More edge capable vs OLB.

[Rocky Landing]

An interesting thing about this draft:

Last season, our #1, #2, and #3 draft picks all started week one. Our #4, Dawson, started week four. So far this season, the discussion seems to be around which back-up positions we draft in which round. 

 

It's not unlikely that we do not have a single draft pick starting the season. 

 

 

Edited March 24, 2020 by Rocky Landing

[qwksilver]

17 minutes ago, CEN-CAL17 said:

I like the kid out of North Dakota St. Derrek Tuszka.

He is more of a 3-4 OLB but the kid can get after it. 6’3” 245, conference defensive player of the year. 13.5 sacks I think it was. Super quick off the ball. His 3 cone was a 6.8 which is quick. A non stop motor type guy. I see him being a round 5 guy maybe 4 if a team falls in love with him. But he’s roughly the same size as Lorax. More edge capable vs OLB.

Late round gold nuggets. Keep them coming!

[CNYfan]

9 hours ago, Happy Days Lois & Clark said:

I think the Bills could use starter quality youth at the DE position. I wouldn’t concern myself with running back til the 5th round or so.

 

I recall the 2003 NFL Draft.  The Buffalo Bills were in need of a Defensive End who could rush the passer.   The Bills were drafting in the 20's that year.  Not because they were good the prior year but had traded their first away and then re-gained a first by trading Peerless Price to the Falcons.

 

Edge rushers kept going off the board and by the time the Bills came up the cupboard was bare.  Suggs, Ty Warren and Calvin Pace had gone off the Board as well as one Jeramie McDougal and the apple of Bills' fan's eye, Michael Haynes of Penn State.  

 

The Bills with Tom Donahoe as GM drafted Willis Mcgahee, which was ok.   Then they drafted for need, however, in the second at the 48th pick took lunch-pail favorite Chris Kelsay.   Kelsay's career was the epitome of pedestrian.   He made Shaq Lawson seem like a phenom.  

 

I guess I see a lesson that don't overdraft for need at that position.  Chris Kelsay's are prevalent and 54 should be a little better than pedestrian, I do really hope.  

 

If they believe in a DE there, fine, but don't reach for need.   CB, RB and OT Best player there.

1 hour ago, Rocky Landing said:

An interesting thing about this draft:

Last season, our #1, #2, and #3 draft picks all started week one. Our #4, Dawson, started week four. So far this season, the discussion seems to be around which back-up positions we draft in which round. 

 

It's not unlikely that we do not have a single draft pick starting the season. 

 

 

Devin didn't start week one?   

Edited March 24, 2020 by CNYfan
spelling and punctuation

[ndirish1978]

2 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

 Agree that DE and CB are more important positions and harder to fill than RB, but I think DE won’t be close to BPA at 54.  There are *maybe* a couple of guys like Greenard and Anae to think about there, but I’m willing to bet that there will be CB, and especially RB higher on most boards available at 54 than the DEs there,  I’m not an expert, but it seems more like you’ll have to talk yourself into really liking any of the DEs vs actually liking prospects at other positions.

 

Agreed that the value isn't really there at DE most likely. All things being equal though, if we find ourselves with equal value at CB/OT/RB/WR I think RB is last in that pecking order

[Sherlock Holmes]

6 hours ago, qwksilver said:

Agreed. Unless one of the top 3 has a significant slide, I think RB is not in play at 54. It is easier to plug and play a later round RB than other positions. 

 

But what round is he projected to go?

 

I've also seen Greenard from Florida mentioned as well as Anae from Utah. I just need more info on them all.

BEST TRAIT - Effort

WORST TRAIT - Play Strength 

RED FLAGS - None

NFL COMP - Chris Kelsay 

 

Noooooo... that should be under red flags

 

Projected Day 3 is what I keep seeing

[Rocky Landing]

1 hour ago, CNYfan said:

 

I recall the 2003 NFL Draft.  The Buffalo Bills were in need of a Defensive End who could rush the passer.   The Bills were drafting in the 20's that year.  Not because they were good the prior year but had traded their first away and then re-gained a first by trading Peerless Price to the Falcons.

 

Edge rushers kept going off the board and by the time the Bills came up the cupboard was bare.  Suggs, Ty Warren and Calvin Pace had gone off the Board as well as one Jeramie McDougal and the apple of Bills' fan's eye, Michael Haynes of Penn State.  

 

The Bills with Tom Donahoe as GM drafted Willis Mcgahee, which was ok.   Then they drafted for need, however, in the second at the 48th pick took lunch-pail favorite Chris Kelsay.   Kelsay's career was the epitome of pedestrian.   He made Shaq Lawson seem like a phenom.  

 

I guess I see a lesson that don't overdraft for need at that position.  Chris Kelsay's are prevalent and 54 should be a little better than pedestrian, I do really hope.  

 

If they believe in a DE there, fine, but don't reach for need.   CB, RB and OT Best player there.

Devin didn't start week one?   

He did. He started game one, and didn't start again until game nine.

[Pete]

With the numbers and resources we have devoted toDL, compared to other positions- we are better served drafting RB, OT, Secondary, backup QB- than DL IMO

[John from Riverside]

12 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

We have our #1 RB going forward. They don't need to spend a #2 on RB.  Doesn't make much sense to pay someone more to be a backup/injury insurance. They've noticed that you can get a starter level RB later in the draft than you can most other positions. It's certainly not impossible, but not likely.

 

Also, your statement that "there are a number of players who can play edge at a high level" is questionable. People are always looking for good edge talent, as you can find plenty of replacement-level talent but not much in the way of guys who can pressure the QB. Teams are always looking and rarely finding. In the list of positions at which there are a number of guys who can play at a high level, RB is far higher than edge.

I love Devin.....not looking to replace him in any way.....but the fact of the matter is Devin would probably work best for us in a rotational back setting.....we NEED another quality back.

 

It cant be GORE......Yeldon didn't get a shot at all last season for some reason.....get the best available player in the 2nd and if its a RB so be it

 

Me.....I think it might be Claypool if best available player....but that is just me

[Thurman#1]

16 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Well, Do you really think that there are 10 defensive ends and offensive tackles out there this year?    I can not see taking the 10th best defensive end and seeing him buried on the practice squad or being a backup to a 3 or4 man rotation at DE.  A RB can play right away and a top one might become the starter or, at least, take a third of the running play snaps.  There are about 130 plays a game- maybe 50 offensive scrimage plays a game,  maybe 20 to 25 running plays... so you might expect this guy might get 7 or 8 carries a game.  He will be the only one carrying the ball on those plays. A back up DE might get 3-4 plays a game and he is only one of 11 defenders.  Which position do you feed with your top remaining draft pick?

 

 

You're missing the point.

 

It doesn't matter whether there are 10 defensive ends or offensive tackles out there or one each or 47 each.

 

Ranking guys against their own position group doesn't matter. It doesn't matter whether at #54 you get the best at a given position, the 8th best or the leventy-seventh best. What matters is only how good he is compared to everybody. If he's still available and he's the 40th best player in the draft, the BPA, terrific, grab him. That guy might be the 12th best WR this year, or the 2nd best TE, but that doesn't matter, not even a slight tiny bit.

 

 

 

"Which position do you feed with your top remaining draft pick," you ask? Dude, here's the answer ... wait for it ... whichever position the BPA plays. Nobody's pure BPA, including Beane, they won't be picking a QB in the second this year, but they also won't pick a guy because he's the best available RB, they simply won't do this, nor should they. This is my opinion, but that's entirely beside the point ... the point is that that's how our GM rolls, thank goodness, because it's the smart way to go. Over the past three years he's said it dozens of times in different ways, again and again, and thank goodness he gets this, because it's how the best teams work.

 

Here's one, but again, there are dozens: 

 

“When we get to draft day we’re not going to reach. We’re not. I have seen that and it rarely works when you reach,” he said. “I’ve seen where decisions were made and it’s decided that a team will not come out of the draft without ‘X’ position filled. I have a lot of examples in my head right now that happened.

 

“Most teams say they won’t reach. I’ve told my guys to hold me accountable. If they see me starting to reach somewhere that doesn’t match our value I’ve told them to grab me.

 

“We can’t just go say, ‘Hey I’m going to take this guy in the first and this guy in the second and now we’ve checked those boxes.’ We have to draft best player available.”

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/04/13/bills-g-m-brandon-beane-we-have-to-draft-best-player-available/

Edited March 25, 2020 by Thurman#1