Josh Allen "Prove it" Season In Year 3

[C.Biscuit97]

13 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I would suggest that you may be seeing your theory blown out of the water by Ryan Tannehill.  

My man averaged 123 yards passing in the playoffs.  When push comes to shove, he’s still the qb that no one is afraid of.  

[Shaw66]

16 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

My man averaged 123 yards passing in the playoffs.  When push comes to shove, he’s still the qb that no one is afraid of.  

I know.  He still is, until he isn't.  Someone in that organization has to make a judgment about him, and it isn't an easy call to make.  He has a lot of history that says don't do it.  But the most important history is the recent history, and a passer rating north of 110 has to make you stop and reconsider.   Playoffs is the last piece of the puzzle, so the fact that he hasn't met your standard in the playoffs yet isn't surprising.   

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I know.  He still is, until he isn't.  Someone in that organization has to make a judgment about him, and it isn't an easy call to make.  He has a lot of history that says don't do it.  But the most important history is the recent history, and a passer rating north of 110 has to make you stop and reconsider.   Playoffs is the last piece of the puzzle, so the fact that he hasn't met your standard in the playoffs yet isn't surprising.   

 

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

My man averaged 123 yards passing in the playoffs.  When push comes to shove, he’s still the qb that no one is afraid of.  

 

Allen will be an interesting study. Quarterbacks usually are judged long term by how they pass the ball, but he does have 17 combined rushing touchdowns in 2-years. 

 

Tannehill was judged a disappointment in his time with Miami, and Allen has work to do to reach the passing numbers Tannehill was putting up in 2nd, 3rd and 4th seasons. 

 

Jameis Winston is viewed as a turnover machine now, but came out of the gate as a 4,000 yard/20 TD passer. 

 

When considering the long term, the most important thing is Allen leads the offense to more points, which is a way of saying I wonder if he can get there as a passer.

 

Edited April 16, 2020 by Straight Hucklebuck

[jrober38]

44 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

 

 

Allen will be an interesting study. Quarterbacks usually are judged long term by how they pass the ball, but he does have 17 combined rushing touchdowns in 2-years. 

 

Tannehill was judged a disappointment in his time with Miami, and Allen has work to do to reach the passing numbers Tannehill was putting up in 2nd, 3rd and 4th seasons. 

 

Jameis Winston is viewed as a turnover machine now, but came out of the gate as a 4,000 yard/20 TD passer. 

 

When considering the long term, the most important thing is Allen leads the offense to more points, which is a way of saying I wonder if he can get there as a passer.

 

 

Agreed. 

 

If we don't produce more points, why would we marry ourselves to this QB when we're in the bottom 3rd of the league in scoring.

 

Why would anyone we satisfied with that type of production, let alone reward that offense's QB with a $40 mil/year contract. 

[Shaw66]

10 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Agreed. 

 

If we don't produce more points, why would we marry ourselves to this QB when we're in the bottom 3rd of the league in scoring.

 

Why would anyone we satisfied with that type of production, let alone reward that offense's QB with a $40 mil/year contract. 

No one would be satisfied with that kind of production.  When they re-sign those guys, it's not because they're satisfied with the production.   It's because they think they have a better chance of getting the production they want out of the guy than the other reasonable options available.  

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

No one would be satisfied with that kind of production.  When they re-sign those guys, it's not because they're satisfied with the production.   It's because they think they have a better chance of getting the production they want out of the guy than the other reasonable options available.  

 

I get that, I'm just really hung up on the fact that there's hardly any track record that says you should be making major contract decisions based off "potential" once a guy is 4 years into the league.

 

The list of QBs who make big jumps after that point is very small, and practically non-existent over the past 20 years. 

 

If the dilemma is paying someone like Josh $40 mil/year to post a QB rating in the mid 80s because they might get better, I'd probably opt to go and try to sign someone like Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton or even Cam Newton for a fraction of that cost with plenty of evidence that I'll be getting the same passing production. 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

I get that, I'm just really hung up on the fact that there's hardly any track record that says you should be making major contract decisions based off "potential" once a guy is 4 years into the league.

 

The list of QBs who make big jumps after that point is very small, and practically non-existent over the past 20 years. 

 

If the dilemma is paying someone like Josh $40 mil/year to post a QB rating in the mid 80s because they might get better, I'd probably opt to go and try to sign someone like Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton or even Cam Newton for a fraction of that cost with plenty of evidence that I'll be getting the same passing production. 

I've enjoyed talking about this.  I'm not sure the is a one size fits all answer.

 

I just hope we see a couple of years of solid improvement from Josh and then we wont have to worry that the Bills are wasting all that money.   

[DuckyBoys]

If he's not significantly better they will at best tender a 5th year option  .  I am not panicking, he showed enough to have me excited for what he can improve upon in 2020.  I expect playoffs, 25+ passing tds and 3500 yards.  I'm not prepared for the frustration of another reboot and if Allen fails we'll see a whole turnover again

[jrober38]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I've enjoyed talking about this.  I'm not sure the is a one size fits all answer.

 

I just hope we see a couple of years of solid improvement from Josh and then we wont have to worry that the Bills are wasting all that money.   

 

Agreed.

 

It's all set up for him to be successful. Let's see his efficiency jump into the low to mid 90s and we might be one of the few teams that finds a quality QB they can build around for many years. 

[Mango]

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Agreed.

 

It's all set up for him to be successful. Let's see his efficiency jump into the low to mid 90s and we might be one of the few teams that finds a quality QB they can build around for many years. 

 

This is why I am not too worried about the QB position. I’ve been critical of some of McB’s moves in year one and two, but all in all he’s done a good job with the roster. They’ve also shown a willingness to be aggressive in the draft. Allen will either show he’s the guy over the next 2-3 years. Or he won’t and our FO will go get the next guy. This doesn’t have feel of a full FO turnover if he doesn’t pan out. All we have to do is not draft more Zay Jones and trade for more KB’s. 

[BullBuchanan]

If he could hit a wide open receiver down the field in stride, that would be a good start.

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

If he could hit a wide open receiver down the field in stride, that would be a good start.

Then consider it a good start!

[Straight Hucklebuck]

8 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

No one would be satisfied with that kind of production.  When they re-sign those guys, it's not because they're satisfied with the production.   It's because they think they have a better chance of getting the production they want out of the guy than the other reasonable options available.  

 

Shaw, we’re coming to a mutual place on this Allen issue, it’s been a fun discussion. 

I think there a few reasonable starting points:

 

1. Allen showed real growth in 2019 verses 2018.

 

2. 2019 Allen is not good enough to really win at a high level.

 

3. Allen’s performance has been inline with his Scouting Reports with regards to accuracy, and lack of dominant college, now NFL production, but with the great tools. So it was a classic prototype size and arm pick, hoping to Coach up out the flaws, without Coaching out the aggressiveness.

 

The best case scenario is Allen breaks away from his game manager numbers and harnesses his potential. 
 

The worst case scenario is the Cincinnati Bengals. A talented roster ready to win, but ultimately held back by their QB going 0-5 in the Playoffs until slowly but surely the roster got older and piece by piece was taken apart by free agency losses.

 

So while Beane and McDermott take the long view, they also have to face ownership and the fans. Being in the Playoffs 2/3 years has bought them goodwill and trust. The bar has been so low, for so long, that 2019 was refreshing. A true, no gimmick, 10

win season.

 

The Bills are still building. Tre White will need an extension, Milano will need one, Dawkins will need one, and the 5th year option will need to be picked up on Allen. Balancing out an aging Jerry Hughes, Star L, and Trent Murphy. You have to enjoy Beane’s aggressiveness, with better awareness and discretion than Whaley showed. 
 

The Bills are making the push now to win, and plateauing with first round Playoff exits will eventually necessitate at minimum a real threat at backup QB. 
 

So all this to say, after the Draft, it will be interesting to see the tone of expectations that Beane and McDernott set when they face those questions. 

 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

 

Shaw, we’re coming to a mutual place on this Allen issue, it’s been a fun discussion. 

I think there a few reasonable starting points:

 

1. Allen showed real growth in 2019 verses 2018.

 

2. 2019 Allen is not good enough to really win at a high level.

 

3. Allen’s performance has been inline with his Scouting Reports with regards to accuracy, and lack of dominant college, now NFL production, but with the great tools. So it was a classic prototype size and arm pick, hoping to Coach up out the flaws, without Coaching out the aggressiveness.

 

The best case scenario is Allen breaks away from his game manager numbers and harnesses his potential. 
 

The worst case scenario is the Cincinnati Bengals. A talented roster ready to win, but ultimately held back by their QB going 0-5 in the Playoffs until slowly but surely the roster got older and piece by piece was taken apart by free agency losses.

 

So while Beane and McDermott take the long view, they also have to face ownership and the fans. Being in the Playoffs 2/3 years has bought them goodwill and trust. The bar has been so low, for so long, that 2019 was refreshing. A true, no gimmick, 10

win season.

 

The Bills are still building. Tre White will need an extension, Milano will need one, Dawkins will need one, and the 5th year option will need to be picked up on Allen. Balancing out an aging Jerry Hughes, Star L, and Trent Murphy. You have to enjoy Beane’s aggressiveness, with better awareness and discretion than Whaley showed. 
 

The Bills are making the push now to win, and plateauing with first round Playoff exits will eventually necessitate at minimum a real threat at backup QB. 
 

So all this to say, after the Draft, it will be interesting to see the tone of expectations that Beane and McDernott set when they face those questions. 

 

Cool summary.  Excellent, in fact.  Your #2 is correct and your #3 is a great description of the pick. 

 

Yes, they're still building.   I don't believe 2020 was their target year; I think 2021 was the year, and still is the year, that they expect to have quality throughout the lineup.   They're still fiddling with the offensive line, they're still fiddling at linebacker.   Tight end needs to get settled.  

 

But I thought from the get go that the Diggs deal said that Beane and McDermott are ready to win now.   If they thought 2021 was the year, something about 2019 got them to begin looking more aggressively at 2020, and the Diggs deal was the signal.    The Diggs deal said to Allen and Daboll "we expect to win now."   It put a lot of pressure on them.   

 

Still, they know they have a very young core, starting with Edmunds and Allen.   2021 is still their target year.   I don't think ownership will be too upset with a first round exit in 2020, provided the team seems to be progressing.   It's tough to win in the playoffs, and as of right now they have an unproven roster.    

 

None of that changes my mind about Allen.   Allen's their guy, he will still be their guy in 2021, unless he really melts down this year.  They will be patient, so long as they see the kinds of progress from him that they're looking for.   

 

Thanks for chatting.   I learn a lot about football in these discussions.