Josh Allen "Prove it" Season In Year 3

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Why is this the year?  What if 2020 and  2021 are just like 2019 and 2022-2029 are as you request.  Why does it have to happen in 2020?

 

2020 has to show progress. I don't think the numbers mentioned are that crazy. They are pretty realistic. 

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

2020 has to show progress. I don't think the numbers mentioned are that crazy. They are pretty realistic. 

I actually don’t care about the numbers. I want to see faster decision making and knowing when to give up on the play.

 

Every deficiency stems from those two things.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

I actually don’t care about the numbers. I want to see faster decision making and knowing when to give up on the play.

 

Every deficiency stems from those two things.

 

No I am not a slave to the numbers either. I just don't think they are the crazy if you are wanting to set numerical benchmarks. 

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I actually don’t care about the numbers. I want to see faster decision making and knowing when to give up on the play.

 

Every deficiency stems from those two things.

Exactly.  He is a young QB.  He still has things to learn.  He needs to make better and faster reads and needs to know when to get rid of the ball.  For him to become what we’d all like it is more than mental than physical.

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No I am not a slave to the numbers either. I just don't think they are the crazy if you are wanting to set numerical benchmarks. 

I’d be fine with 3500/25/62%

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I’d be fine with 3500/25/62%

 

Exactly - it is in that ballpark that he needs to be. 

[jrober38]

12 hours ago, Billl said:

Just so I’m clear, you’re saying that all a QB has to do in order to get respect is to throw 56 TDs, 15 INTs in 2 seasons, win on the road in the playoffs at New Orleans, and then win on the road against the best defense in the NFL when his team gets outrushed by 160 yards?  I’m assuming he’d have had to outduel Mahomes in the Super Bowl as well or we’d be having this same conversation.

 

He’s a guy people love to disrespect, but he’s absolutely a top 10 QB.  Honestly, I kind of do get it.  I’ve watched him enough to know that there are 2 plays a game when he does something that seems totally gutless, but he puts up numbers and wins a ton of games.  Alex Smith was the same way, but Cousins puts up bigger numbers.  The Vikings would be a perfect candidate to draft a QB with huge upside similar to what KC did.

 

He's played on a team with two elite receivers, an elite running back, an elite tight end. 

 

Just because his stats are good doesn't mean he's an elite QB.

 

I think a lot of QBs in the NFL could do what he's done with that supporting cast. 

[Billl]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Crap with Carr? Patently false.

 

He had 1,070 and 1,153 yards in seasons 1 and 2, respectively.

You deliberately misrepresented the situation by only using data from 5 years ago before Carr fell off a cliff.  Cooper’s production was in a free fall prior to the trade. He averaged 49 YPG with Carr in 2017 and 47 YPG with him in 2018 (plus 1 TD in 6 games).  He averaged 81 YPG with 6 TDs in 9 games after the trade in 2018 then backed it up with 74 YPG and 8 TDs in 2019.  
 

The difference between his career arc prior to the trade and after it is striking.

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, Billl said:

You deliberately misrepresented the situation by only using data from 5 years ago before Carr fell off a cliff.  Cooper’s production was in a free fall prior to the trade. He averaged 49 YPG with Carr in 2017 and 47 YPG with him in 2018 (plus 1 TD in 6 games).  He averaged 81 YPG with 6 TDs in 9 games after the trade in 2018 then backed it up with 74 YPG and 8 TDs in 2019.  
 

The difference between his career arc prior to the trade and after it is striking.

Wait, so what you’re saying is that Cooper was great until his QB “fell off a cliff”, and wasn’t actually “crap” with Carr?

 

Yeah, that’s what I said too. There was this other poster (think his name was Billl) that called Cooper “crap” with Carr, which was totally absurd for a guy that had 2300 yards in 2 seasons before the QB fell off a cliff.

[Billl]

6 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Wait, so what you’re saying is that Cooper was great until his QB “fell off a cliff”, and wasn’t actually “crap” with Carr?

 

Yeah, that’s what I said too. There was this other poster (think his name was Billl) that called Cooper “crap” with Carr, which was totally absurd for a guy that had 2300 yards in 2 seasons before the QB fell off a cliff.

Maybe we’re just talking past each other.  I’m saying that Cooper is a good player when he’s got a good QB.  Give him Dak, and you get big numbers.  Give him modern day Carr, and you get pedestrian numbers.  Give him whatever QB you can get for league minimum, and you’ll get less than that.  
 

My point is that paying Cooper $20,000,000 is a complete  waste if they decide to save money by not paying Dak.

[Billl]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

300 yards games remain a meh for me. The only game last year where I honestly feel like Josh failing to get to 300 played a part in us losing was Cleveland - which I thought was his worst game. There were plays to be made that day that he missed and I think he ended on 260 odd yards. If he hits one or two of those plays, even on the final drive, we probably win and he goes over 300. 

 

Generally though playing with this defense you are not gonna need Josh to go over 300 that often. Rather than arbitrary numbers I am looking at how many times do we require him to do it next year and does he step up to the plate on those occasions. I had him 0/1 in 2019 but as yet that isn't enough of a pattern for me to worry about it. 

In two games against NE, he threw for 153 and 208.  The margins of those games were 6 and 7.  Got to think an extra 147 yards and 92 yards would have made a difference.  (He threw 28 passes before he got hurt in the first game). He also threw for 146 yards in a 7 point loss to Baltimore.

 

That isn’t to say that 300 is some magic number, but NFL QBs routinely exceed that threshold.  It’s not even a “wow” number.  Allen’s never even come close.  His best is 266, and that took him 41 attempts to reach.  Just for comparison, Mahomes has played 35 career games including the postseason.  He’s exceeded 266 yards 28 times, 300 yards 19 times, and 400 yards 3 times.

 

At some point, a franchise QB needs to have the ability to get into the zone and start throwing the ball all over the yard.  I’m pretty confident he will hit 300 multiple times this season.

[Billl]

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

It’s funny.  I’ve been accused by some of incorrectly stating there are people on this board who do not want to see Allen succeed.

 

To all of you, here you go.

So if my kids get four Fs and two Ds on their report cards, does it mean I don’t want them to succeed if I point out that their grades are terrible?

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

2020 has to show progress. I don't think the numbers mentioned are that crazy. They are pretty realistic. 

Why does he have to show progress?   He should show progress, but he doesn't have to. 

 

If Josh Allen becomes a true franchise quarterback, he's going to give us ten or more seasons of top 10 quarterbacking.   I don't care if those ten seasons start in 2020 or 2023.   I'd like them to start in 2020.  But if I told you today Josh Allen was going to be exactly the same in 2020 as he was in 2019, and then he was going to be exactly the same again in 2021, and then he has going to have ten seasons in a row where his stats by any reasonable measure are in the top 10 every year, would you cut him after 2020?   That's absurd.  

 

Young men have been trying there hands at playing quarterback for 75 years, millions of them.   Over all that time and all those guys slinging it, only 30 or so have gotten to be outstanding.   The 30 or so that made it didn't all get there the same way.  Curt Warner didn't do it like Steve Young, who didn't do it like Peyton, who didn't do it like Brady, who didn't do it like Bart Starr, who didn't do it like Brees.   There is no well-defined path to greatness at quarterback. 

 

In a word that we talked about a lot a year or two ago, we should all remember that it's a process.   Allen is going through a process.   The process isn't written in a textbook somewhere.   The process doesn't involve straight line improvement; there are ups and downs.   

 

The only judgment to be made in evaluating the process is the extent to which the person is reaching his limit.   Has he reached his potential?   If he hasn't reached his potential, then you keep looking for ways to move him along.   

 

Sure, at some point, you give up and move on, but with Allen's potential and give his age, we aren't anywhere close to the time when it makes sense to give up.   

 

I discovered a month ago and keep talking about Elway, who I've always thought was more like Allen in terms of skill set than any other quarterback.   Size, running ability, arm strength at the very top of the charts.   Here's Elway's rank in the league, year after year, in passer rating:   27, 17, 17, 11, 11, 18, 17, 14, 19, 20.   That's ten years of quarterbacking where Elway did not perform in the top 10 in the league.   Imagine what the fans in Denver were saying.   Those numbers mean that his play was completely mediocre in terms of things like TD-INT ratio, completion percentage, yards per attempt.   Mediocre.   Bronco management didn't give up on him.   Why not?  Potential.   Big body, big arm, good runner, good leader.  They were content to wait for him.  

 

What happened for the last five years of his career?   3, 4, 14, 4, 7, two Super Bowls.  

 

People will say it doesn't take that long to succeed in the NFL any more, but that's incorrect.   It may not take some people that long to succeed, but successful QBs don't follow the same paths.  

 

It makes no sense to me to say that Allen MUST do anything at all next season.   He will have the season he has.  Then the coaches will evaluate it, decide how he needs to improve, and work on it.   Then Allen will play another season, the coaches will evaluate that season, decide how he has to improve, and work on it.   When the coaches decide that he no longer has reasonable room for improvement, they'll move on.   There's no reason apparent today why he won't be able to improve in 2021 if he doesn't improve in 2020.  

 

There are position players in the Pro Bowl every year who played their first three or four years in the NFL without being a full-time starter.   Why does that happen?   Because they learn and improve.   If it takes position players four years or more to get good at their position, why should we think that at the most difficult position in all of sports, Josh Allen is supposed to get good in three?   

 

There's a big difference between what we want from him and what he must do in 2020.   I want him to be a top 10 quarterback.   I'm not cutting or trading him if he isn't.  

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

Why does he have to show progress?   He should show progress, but he doesn't have to. 

 

If Josh Allen becomes a true franchise quarterback, he's going to give us ten or more seasons of top 10 quarterbacking.   I don't care if those ten seasons start in 2020 or 2023.   I'd like them to start in 2020.  But if I told you today Josh Allen was going to be exactly the same in 2020 as he was in 2019, and then he was going to be exactly the same again in 2021, and then he has going to have ten seasons in a row where his stats by any reasonable measure are in the top 10 every year, would you cut him after 2020?   That's absurd.  

 

Young men have been trying there hands at playing quarterback for 75 years, millions of them.   Over all that time and all those guys slinging it, only 30 or so have gotten to be outstanding.   The 30 or so that made it didn't all get there the same way.  Curt Warner didn't do it like Steve Young, who didn't do it like Peyton, who didn't do it like Brady, who didn't do it like Bart Starr, who didn't do it like Brees.   There is no well-defined path to greatness at quarterback. 

 

In a word that we talked about a lot a year or two ago, we should all remember that it's a process.   Allen is going through a process.   The process isn't written in a textbook somewhere.   The process doesn't involve straight line improvement; there are ups and downs.   

 

The only judgment to be made in evaluating the process is the extent to which the person is reaching his limit.   Has he reached his potential?   If he hasn't reached his potential, then you keep looking for ways to move him along.   

 

Sure, at some point, you give up and move on, but with Allen's potential and give his age, we aren't anywhere close to the time when it makes sense to give up.   

 

I discovered a month ago and keep talking about Elway, who I've always thought was more like Allen in terms of skill set than any other quarterback.   Size, running ability, arm strength at the very top of the charts.   Here's Elway's rank in the league, year after year, in passer rating:   27, 17, 17, 11, 11, 18, 17, 14, 19, 20.   That's ten years of quarterbacking where Elway did not perform in the top 10 in the league.   Imagine what the fans in Denver were saying.   Those numbers mean that his play was completely mediocre in terms of things like TD-INT ratio, completion percentage, yards per attempt.   Mediocre.   Bronco management didn't give up on him.   Why not?  Potential.   Big body, big arm, good runner, good leader.  They were content to wait for him.  

 

What happened for the last five years of his career?   3, 4, 14, 4, 7, two Super Bowls.  

 

People will say it doesn't take that long to succeed in the NFL any more, but that's incorrect.   It may not take some people that long to succeed, but successful QBs don't follow the same paths.  

 

It makes no sense to me to say that Allen MUST do anything at all next season.   He will have the season he has.  Then the coaches will evaluate it, decide how he needs to improve, and work on it.   Then Allen will play another season, the coaches will evaluate that season, decide how he has to improve, and work on it.   When the coaches decide that he no longer has reasonable room for improvement, they'll move on.   There's no reason apparent today why he won't be able to improve in 2021 if he doesn't improve in 2020.  

 

There are position players in the Pro Bowl every year who played their first three or four years in the NFL without being a full-time starter.   Why does that happen?   Because they learn and improve.   If it takes position players four years or more to get good at their position, why should we think that at the most difficult position in all of sports, Josh Allen is supposed to get good in three?   

 

There's a big difference between what we want from him and what he must do in 2020.   I want him to be a top 10 quarterback.   I'm not cutting or trading him if he isn't.  

 

If Josh is the same in 2020 as he was in 2019 then I would bring in a proper vet who could compete to start. I don't know what next year's market would look like but if we look at this year's for comparison sake then I am talking a Winston or a Newton type.  Josh would still go into 2021 as "the guy" but his leash would be reduced. If he was the same guy again in 2021 then I would look to draft a Quarterback early in 2022 and prepare to move on.

 

He doesn't have to be a top 10 Quarterback in 2020 but he has to continue to show signs of forward progress. Is it possible that Josh plateaus now for two seasons and then suddenly ascends again and ends up an elite Quarterback? Yes. But would I consider that likely? No. In fact I'd consider it highly unlikely. And that is why there comes a point wen you have to start looking beyond him.

 

I think all this is moot by the way, because I think and expect Josh will improve again in 2020. But would I accept two more seasons of his 2019 play and continue to tie myself to him? No. At that point I'd be ready to move on.

[BigBillsFan]

2 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

No need to pull up Jones’ stats...I actually thought he had a better rookie season than Allen’s sophomore season...and, imo, he has already proven he is much more efficient as a passer- even with Allen’s improvements...

 

And that really says something because that’s how low Allen’s bar was...Next year Allen’s goal is to show he can be as efficient as Jones’ rookie season...

 

If he can do that, I will start to think maybe we have a chance at something...I remain cautiously hopeful though...

 

That's an interesting, but true statement. If Allen can pull of Jones's #s as a passer that would be unbelievably great.

 

I would still say that bar is maybe too high IMO. If Jones started the whole season he would have ended up with over 4,000 yards and over 30-32 TDs thrown. He only started 12 games.

 

I don't expect Allen to throw for 4k yards and 30 TDs, I'm more than happy to see him 3500 and 25-28 TDs thrown and just grow situationally because he'll rush for more yards than Jones and change some of the layout whereas Jones is more of a pure passer. I expect Jones, if healthy, to hit 4k to 4200 yards and 30 TDs which is unreasonable for Josh to hit.

[Shaw66]

11 minutes ago, Billl said:

In two games against NE, he threw for 153 and 208.  The margins of those games were 6 and 7.  Got to think an extra 147 yards and 92 yards would have made a difference.  (He threw 28 passes before he got hurt in the first game). He also threw for 146 yards in a 7 point loss to Baltimore.

 

That isn’t to say that 300 is some magic number, but NFL QBs routinely exceed that threshold.  It’s not even a “wow” number.  Allen’s never even come close.  His best is 266, and that took him 41 attempts to reach.  Just for comparison, Mahomes has played 35 career games including the postseason.  He’s exceeded 266 yards 28 times, 300 yards 19 times, and 400 yards 3 times.

 

At some point, a franchise QB needs to have the ability to get into the zone and start throwing the ball all over the yard.  I’m pretty confident he will hit 300 multiple times this season.

And one other point that is lost in this conversation.   For a month or so, plenty of people were talking here about Daboll being a problem.   That talk has died down, and I've never been a serious subscriber to that theory, but it's relevant here.   How does any of us know that the extra 147 and extra 92 yards weren't on Daboll, not Allen?   

 

These men have a goal, a variety of goals.   They are operating in a complicated game where everyone needs to perform to achieve the goals.   Their roles are interconnected enough that it often is not easy to ascribe responsibility for particular outcomes.   

 

As I reminded us all a minute ago, there is a process.   McDermott is driving a process to achieve some goals.   Allen is a participant in the process.  He hasn't achieved his personal goals yet.   The process does not establish deadlines.   It seeks improvement.  2020 is not some magical year by which certain things must happen.  

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If Josh is the same in 2020 as he was in 2019 then I would bring in a proper vet who could compete to start. I don't know what next year's market would look like but if we look at this year's for comparison sake then I am talking a Winston or a Newton type.  Josh would still go into 2021 as "the guy" but his leash would be reduced. If he was the same guy again in 2021 then I would look to draft a Quarterback early in 2022 and prepare to move on.

 

He doesn't have to be a top 10 Quarterback in 2020 but he has to continue to show signs of forward progress. Is it possible that Josh plateaus now for two seasons and then suddenly ascends again and ends up an elite Quarterback? Yes. But would I consider that likely? No. In fact I'd consider it highly unlikely. And that is why there comes a point wen you have to start looking beyond him.

 

I think all this is moot by the way, because I think and expect Josh will improve again in 2020. But would I accept two more seasons of his 2019 play and continue to tie myself to him? No. At that point I'd be ready to move on.

I agree, I expect he will improve.   I agree with most everything you say all the time, including this post.   

 

However, and simply for the sake of intellectual curiosity, I would challenge you to explain how anything you said leads to the conclusion that he "has to continue to show signs of forward progress."   There is no reason he "has" to do anything.   His 2020 season does not determine his future, any more than his 2019 season determined his future.  I agree, that if he isn't progressing, his leash probably gets short - GMs actually have to make decisions.   But even the short leash isn't automatic, by any means.   Allen's in a process.  The process evaluates him every week and every season.   His coaches make a judgment about how much potential for improvement he has and how likely it is that they, the coaches, will be able to help him achieve that improvement.   When the determination is made that he's more or less reached his potential, then they decide what to do with him.   

 

It is quite possible that even off a no-improvement year in 2020 the coaches will have the exact same view of Allen's potential and how likely it is that will achieve it.  The guy is only 24 this season, and there's nothing wrong if he doesn't reach is prime until he's 27 or 28.   Look at Elway's numbers.   He played 10 seasons without being in the top 10 in passer rating.   In his 10th season he was 20th in the league; the next season he was 3rd, the beginning of a five-year Hall of Fame run.      

 

There simply is no reason to conclude that Allen "has" to do anything in 2020 except be committed to the process.   

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree, I expect he will improve.   I agree with most everything you say all the time, including this post.   

 

However, and simply for the sake of intellectual curiosity, I would challenge you to explain how anything you said leads to the conclusion that he "has to continue to show signs of forward progress."   There is no reason he "has" to do anything.   His 2020 season does not determine his future, any more than his 2019 season determined his future.  I agree, that if he isn't progressing, his leash probably gets short - GMs actually have to make decisions.   But even the short leash isn't automatic, by any means.   Allen's in a process.  The process evaluates him every week and every season.   His coaches make a judgment about how much potential for improvement he has and how likely it is that they, the coaches, will be able to help him achieve that improvement.   When the determination is made that he's more or less reached his potential, then they decide what to do with him.   

 

It is quite possible that even off a no-improvement year in 2020 the coaches will have the exact same view of Allen's potential and how likely it is that will achieve it.  The guy is only 24 this season, and there's nothing wrong if he doesn't reach is prime until he's 27 or 28.   Look at Elway's numbers.   He played 10 seasons without being in the top 10 in passer rating.   In his 10th season he was 20th in the league; the next season he was 3rd, the beginning of a five-year Hall of Fame run.      

 

There simply is no reason to conclude that Allen "has" to do anything in 2020 except be committed to the process.   

 

Regardless of the process I believe the next two seasons do ultimately determine his future.

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Regardless of the process I believe the next two seasons do ultimately determine his future.

I don't.  

 

I actually believe that if he plays two seasons like 2019 and the Bills don't exercise the fifth year option, he will be a star someplace else.   

 

I think Allen is a star in the making.   I understand that's just an opinion, but I think he's too talented and too committed to succeeding to fail.   I think he found the perfect head coach to nurture and grow him, year after year.   I think Allen understands that.   

 

Five years from now Allen will have mastered a complex offensive system for the Buffalo Bills, the Bills will be winning a lot of games, and Allen will be recognized as on his way to the Hall of Fame.  Allen and McDermott are Brady and Belichick.   

 

I've been enjoying the ride since Allen wowed me with a couple of passes in his rookie preseason, and I see no reason why it is going to stop.   I just hope I live long enough to see Allen in full bloom.  

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

Maybe we’re just talking past each other.  I’m saying that Cooper is a good player when he’s got a good QB.  Give him Dak, and you get big numbers.  Give him modern day Carr, and you get pedestrian numbers.  Give him whatever QB you can get for league minimum, and you’ll get less than that.  
 

My point is that paying Cooper $20,000,000 is a complete  waste if they decide to save money by not paying Dak.

Ok that makes way more sense ??