Josh Allen "Prove it" Season In Year 3

[C.Biscuit97]

3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

So wait, if total TDs is the only thing that matters TD-wise, why fight back against the fact that Allen was 21st and try to campaign that any additional context is required?

 

And why pick those stats? If you’re looking for a correlation to winning, there was a study a few years ago that concluded that Adjusted-Net-Yards-Per-Attempt was the stat most closely correlated with winning.

Actually, he was 21st in attempts, and he was 21st in passing TDs, so that would seem to be a solid correlation on the surface.

Can you explain the adjusted net yards per attempt stat?  I looked it briefly and saw Tannehill led it this year (and he’s a total fraud imo).  
 

it’s seems like a stat that favors game managers and not qbs who have to carry their teams.  Am I wrong?

Edited March 24, 2020 by C.Biscuit97

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Can you explain the adjusted net yards per attempt stat?  I looked it briefly and saw Tannehill led it this year (and he’s a total fraud imo).  

 

As I recall that study it was more about consistency over QB careers rather than year to year. The QBs who have good adjusted net yards per attempt over their careers tend to win. And it stays consistent from the 50s onwards. Whereas things like completion %s  and TD passes vary greatly by era. 

[BigBillsFan]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

So wait, if total TDs is the only thing that matters TD-wise, why fight back against the fact that Allen was 21st and try to campaign that any additional context is required?

 

And why pick those stats? If you’re looking for a correlation to winning, there was a study a few years ago that concluded that Adjusted-Net-Yards-Per-Attempt was the stat most closely correlated with winning.

 

Because he wasn't 21st. He's 21st if you're comparing him with Stafford who played 8 games and Bridgewater or Darnold who played 13 games. How many TDs you throw per game was what I was comparing.

 

You've changed the argument because you know I'm right. I never said total TDs.

 

If you throw for less TDs per game your odds of being a good QB go down over time. TD % has no corollary.

 

Another study showed that the stat mostly closely connected to QB success is completion %.

[thebandit27]

10 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Can you explain the adjusted net yards per attempt stat?  I looked it briefly and saw Tannehill led it this year (and he’s a total fraud imo).  
 

it’s seems like a stat that favors game managers and not qbs who have to carry their teams.  Am I wrong?

Probably best to Google the study; I won’t do it justice.

 

As for the attempts thing, I did a bit of digging while dinner cooks...

 

Looks like there were 8 teams with a positive “average lead per drive” in 2019 (per Football Outsiders). Of the 8, 5 of them ranked in the bottom 8 in the NFL in pass attempts, so maybe playing with a lead played into it some.

6 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Because he wasn't 21st. He's 21st if you're comparing him with Stafford who played 8 games and Bridgewater or Darnold who played 13 games. How many TDs you throw per game was what I was comparing.

 

You've changed the argument because you know I'm right. I never said total TDs.

 

If you throw for less TDs per game your odds of being a good QB go down over time. TD % has no corollary.

 

Another study showed that the stat mostly closely connected to QB success is completion %.

Yes, you did say total TDs, then you amended it.

 

And no, I didn’t change anything. You wanted to point out that on a per-game basis he was bottom-5. I said that if you’re looking for context that you need to factor in attempts.

 

Re completion percentage, that must be why Derek Carr’s team represented the AFC in the Super Bowl; I mean, he did lead the conference in completion percentage!

Edited March 24, 2020 by thebandit27

[Pokebball]

2 hours ago, Cripple Creek said:

How long are you willing to wait?  If you don't see marked improvement year 3 vs. 2 what's your play?

 

Bring in a vet to compete?

Give him year 4?

Draft some competition?

Give him year 3

2 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

At the end of this season you have to decide if we're picking up his 5th year option which will come with a payday of approximately $30-32 million in 2022. 

 

I think that by default makes this year a prove it year for Allen. 

My point is to give him year 3 and then we'll see

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

Give him year 3

My point is to give him year 3 and then we'll see

I agree, but that's true for every player on the team.  A judgment for 2021 and the future will be made after the 2020 season.

 

But that's only the beginning of the discussion.   The point is, what does he have to do in 2020 to have a 2021 in Buffalo?   The notion of a "prove it" year is that if you don't do it that year, you're done for the future.   You didn't prove it, so you're done. 

 

I don't think it's a prove it year at all.   That is, he could have, statistically something like 2019, maybe a little better, so that maybe he's the 15th best QB in the league.  That wouldn't prove anything, it would be a disappointment and it wouldn't be enough, but I'd keep him.   

 

A guy like a Trent Murphy is in a "prove it" year, or maybe a Levi Wallace, but not Allen.   He's shown too much promise to quit on him after 2020 even if he hasn't had a top-10 QB season.  

[BigBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Yes, you did say total TDs, then you amended it.

 

And no, I didn’t change anything. You wanted to point out that on a per-game basis he was bottom-5. I said that if you’re looking for context that you need to factor in attempts.

 

Total TDs is how they rate you for greatness. I made 2 separate arguments.

 

Total TDs thrown per game is a far better metric to understand if the QB will make it past 26-28 yrs old and still be a good QB. If it's total QBs you're destroying your body. TD % is worthless stat. Sure there are exceptions, but exceptions prove the rule. I'd rather take a guy who threw for 35 TDs with a lower TD % than a guy who threw for 20 with a higher one if the turn-overs are about the same.

 

 

[Pokebball]

8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree, but that's true for every player on the team.  A judgment for 2021 and the future will be made after the 2020 season.

 

But that's only the beginning of the discussion.   The point is, what does he have to do in 2020 to have a 2021 in Buffalo?   The notion of a "prove it" year is that if you don't do it that year, you're done for the future.   You didn't prove it, so you're done. 

 

I don't think it's a prove it year at all.   That is, he could have, statistically something like 2019, maybe a little better, so that maybe he's the 15th best QB in the league.  That wouldn't prove anything, it would be a disappointment and it wouldn't be enough, but I'd keep him.   

 

A guy like a Trent Murphy is in a "prove it" year, or maybe a Levi Wallace, but not Allen.   He's shown too much promise to quit on him after 2020 even if he hasn't had a top-10 QB season.  

I think it's difficult to define what he needs to do right now.  Someone above tossed out a yards passing per game of 235 yds, or something like that.  What if he averages something less, like 210, but he leads the team to a dozen wins (and you can credit his leadership).  What if the team becomes a strong running team behind Singletary and the passing game is there to compliment the running game, with JA scrambling effectively in the game plan, gaining 50+ yds rushing each game.  I do expect and would like to see JA passing for 235 yds per game.  All I'm saying is let's allow JA and everyone else to do what they need to do this coming year to win and evaluate JA based on that.

[SoTier]

On 3/23/2020 at 1:31 PM, longtimebillsfan said:

I am a Josh Allen fan.  I believe that he has the physical gifts to be a generational quarterback.  I also am aware of his weaknesses.

 

Now that Josh has one of the best trio starting wide receivers in the league, what does he have to do to show that he is the Bills franchise quarterback?

 

I think that Allen has to improve his decision making.  There is probably no more important trait that separates great QBs from mediocre ones than learning what to do  ... when and when not to do it.  A lot of a QB's decision making ability stems from how fast he can process what he sees in front of him and acting accordingly.  when the game "slows down" for a QB and he starts understanding what he sees, his decision making should improve.  Allen started doing that last season.  He should become better this season with more experience as well as having more options.  We need to see less "hero ball".

[Shaw66]

16 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

I think it's difficult to define what he needs to do right now.  Someone above tossed out a yards passing per game of 235 yds, or something like that.  What if he averages something less, like 210, but he leads the team to a dozen wins (and you can credit his leadership).  What if the team becomes a strong running team behind Singletary and the passing game is there to compliment the running game, with JA scrambling effectively in the game plan, gaining 50+ yds rushing each game.  I do expect and would like to see JA passing for 235 yds per game.  All I'm saying is let's allow JA and everyone else to do what they need to do this coming year to win and evaluate JA based on that.

Absolutely sensible.   

 

All I'm saying is that unless he has something like a total meltdown, some kind of serious regression, he's the guy for 2021.   If Allen is the same in 2020 as 2019, I think the Bills keep as their 2021 starter.   

 

I guess what I'm really saying is that unless Allen is really bad in 2020, his performance in 2020 will really only determine how seriously the Bills start looking for a possible replacement.   Allen will still be the presumptive 2021 starter, but he mind find the level of competition for his job going up.  

[34-78-83]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

Absolutely sensible.   

 

All I'm saying is that unless he has something like a total meltdown, some kind of serious regression, he's the guy for 2021.   If Allen is the same in 2020 as 2019, I think the Bills keep as their 2021 starter.   

 

I guess what I'm really saying is that unless Allen is really bad in 2020, his performance in 2020 will really only determine how seriously the Bills start looking for a possible replacement.   Allen will still be the presumptive 2021 starter, but he mind find the level of competition for his job going up.  

Facts...and also this ^^ is how the team would treat it too. Because they understand who and what he is and and what he can be.

[Shaw66]

7 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

I think that Allen has to improve his decision making.  There is probably no more important trait that separates great QBs from mediocre ones than learning what to do  ... when and when not to do it.  A lot of a QB's decision making ability stems from how fast he can process what he sees in front of him and acting accordingly.  when the game "slows down" for a QB and he starts understanding what he sees, his decision making should improve.  Allen started doing that last season.  He should become better this season with more experience as well as having more options.  We need to see less "hero ball".

I'm completely in agreement.   It's all about decision making.   

 

Watch Brady or Brees.   They know what they're doing all the time.   They make the right play all the time.   They don't necessarily execute all the time, but they make the right choice, and they recognize what the right choice is very quickly.   That is, they don't go back to the bench, look at a replay and say "oh, I see it now."   They see the right choice as it's happening.   they're really quite amazing at it.   

 

Allen has to progress in that direction.   He has to increase the percentage of plays where he understands what he is supposed to do soon enough that he actually has time to do it.   

[YattaOkasan]

32 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Total TDs is how they rate you for greatness. I made 2 separate arguments.

 

Total TDs thrown per game is a far better metric to understand if the QB will make it past 26-28 yrs old and still be a good QB. If it's total QBs you're destroying your body. TD % is worthless stat. Sure there are exceptions, but exceptions prove the rule. I'd rather take a guy who threw for 35 TDs with a lower TD % than a guy who threw for 20 with a higher one if the turn-overs are about the same.

 

 

Please show me the receipts that TDs per game is a better predictor than TDs per attempt. 

[SoTier]

36 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree, but that's true for every player on the team.  A judgment for 2021 and the future will be made after the 2020 season.

 

But that's only the beginning of the discussion.   The point is, what does he have to do in 2020 to have a 2021 in Buffalo?   The notion of a "prove it" year is that if you don't do it that year, you're done for the future.   You didn't prove it, so you're done. 

 

I don't think it's a prove it year at all.   That is, he could have, statistically something like 2019, maybe a little better, so that maybe he's the 15th best QB in the league.  That wouldn't prove anything, it would be a disappointment and it wouldn't be enough, but I'd keep him.   

 

A guy like a Trent Murphy is in a "prove it" year, or maybe a Levi Wallace, but not Allen.   He's shown too much promise to quit on him after 2020 even if he hasn't had a top-10 QB season.  

 

If Allen does not show significant improvement in his general QBing skills, then he should be on a short leash going forward, just like Trubisky in Chicago will be in 2020 and Mariota in Tennessee was in 2019.  Trubisky showed great promise, too, in 2018, but he failed to take the next step in his third year. There always seemed to be an excuse for why Mariota could never get that Titans team rolling, so the Titans brought in Tannehill in 2019.  

 

QBs continue to improve as they gain experience until they reach their ceiling, and after that they don't get much better, and that usually takes 2 or 3 years of being a starter to achieve.   A team with a QB who's been a starter for three seasons and is still not playing well enough for a team to seriously consider giving him a big pay raise in the form of an extension should seriously be considering a Plan B.   A GOAT QB falling into team's lap in FA doesn't happen every day.

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

If Allen does not show significant improvement in his general QBing skills, then he should be on a short leash going forward, just like Trubisky in Chicago will be in 2020 and Mariota in Tennessee was in 2019.  Trubisky showed great promise, too, in 2018, but he failed to take the next step in his third year. There always seemed to be an excuse for why Mariota could never get that Titans team rolling, so the Titans brought in Tannehill in 2019.  

 

QBs continue to improve as they gain experience until they reach their ceiling, and after that they don't get much better, and that usually takes 2 or 3 years of being a starter to achieve.   A team with a QB who's been a starter for three seasons and is still not playing well enough for a team to seriously consider giving him a big pay raise in the form of an extension should seriously be considering a Plan B.   A GOAT QB falling into team's lap in FA doesn't happen every day.

I agree.  I think Trubisky is a good example.   Allen is a year behind him.   This is a prove it year for Trubisky.   2021 could be a prove it year for Allen.   But not 2020.  

[Billl]

1 hour ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

That's why Rob Johnson went to Canton faster than Manning, Farve and Marino because in 1998 he beat them by a landslide in TD per pass ratio. in some cases from 50% to 200% better.

 

In fact he did it again in 1999 and still beat Farve in 2000 for TD%.

 

The only measurement which stack up time and time again are completion %, TDs, YPA, and turnovers.

John Brown is the GOAT QB.  He threw two passes this season, and both went for TDs.

[Bangarang]

EJ Manuel got 4 years here so I don’t expect Allen to get any less.

 

I don’t look at it as a make or break year in a sense that Allen would be at risk of getting cut before year 4. I think Allen needs to continue making significant strides before I would feel comfortable saying he’s our guy and there’s no questions about it. 
 

Given our addition of Diggs, if the improvements dont continue this year then I’d be less confident about it ever happening. At that point, I’d at least consider the idea of him not being who we had hoped and looking for a possible upgrade down the road.

[Mango]

50 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Please show me the receipts that TDs per game is a better predictor than TDs per attempt. 

Dude, haven’t you ever been to a Bills game where we put up 19 points (our average) and lose and people say “yeah but did you see how many TD’s per throw we scored, it’s basically a tie”

[Teddy KGB]

14 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

EJ Manuel got 4 years here so I don’t expect Allen to get any less.

 

I don’t look at it as a make or break year in a sense that Allen would be at risk of getting cut before year 4. I think Allen needs to continue making significant strides before I would feel comfortable saying he’s our guy and there’s no questions about it. 
 

Given our addition of Diggs, if the improvements dont continue this year then I’d be less confident about it ever happening. At that point, I’d at least consider the idea of him not being who we had hoped and looking for a possible upgrade down the road.

If Knox makes that block is he “our guy” 

[GoBills808]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

So wait, if total TDs is the only thing that matters TD-wise, why fight back against the fact that Allen was 21st and try to campaign that any additional context is required?

 

And why pick those stats? If you’re looking for a correlation to winning, there was a study a few years ago that concluded that Adjusted-Net-Yards-Per-Attempt was the stat most closely correlated with winning.

Actually, he was 21st in attempts, and he was 21st in passing TDs, so that would seem to be a solid correlation on the surface.

I think ANY/A might be going a little far. 

 

7 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

If Knox makes that block is he “our guy” 

If Milano makes the tackle same story