Josh Allen "Prove it" Season In Year 3

[reddogblitz]

12 hours ago, whorlnut said:

Make what happen?  Bring his team back to win games?  You realize that he already does that as well as anyone in the league right?

 

Too bad he used 'em all up before the playoff game.  Coulda used one there.

 

granted a lot of players could have impacted the game if they hadn't flubbed up, but if you are THE GUY, the $30,000,000.00 man, then THAT'S when you gotta make it happen, ie, win the game someway somehow.

[Teddy KGB]

6 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Too bad he used 'em all up before the playoff game.  Coulda used one there.

 

granted a lot of players could have impacted the game if they hadn't flubbed up, but if you are THE GUY, the $30,000,000.00 man, then THAT'S when you gotta make it happen, ie, win the game someway somehow.

like when he put them in fg range to win the game then the refs flagged Cody ford for nothing ? 
 

he’s not making 30 mil rn ftr. 

Edited March 24, 2020 by Teddy KGB

[BigBillsFan]

8 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

You are entitled to your own opinion; you are not entitled to your own facts.

 

Except I used facts, facts that don't fit narrative.

 

Look it's a fact so much so that all people who disagree say is "He changed the argument". Gotta say if that's the best you have you know you don't have an argument.

 

Let's try this again since I'm against "facts". He finished bottom 5 in starters for QBs thrown. Unless you want to factor in back-ups and guys that played 10 games that's the truth. He played a full season and was in the bottom 5.

 

The only QBs he finished above was Brissett, Dalton, tied Murray, tied Fitz, & Trubisky. Sorry I didn't include the back-up Kyle Murray.

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Except I used facts, facts that don't fit narrative.

 

Look it's a fact so much so that all people who disagree say is "He changed the argument". Gotta say if that's the best you have you know you don't have an argument.

 

Let's try this again since I'm against "facts". He finished bottom 5 in starters for QBs thrown. Unless you want to factor in back-ups and guys that played 10 games that's the truth. He played a full season and was in the bottom 5.

 

The only QBs he finished above was Brissett, Dalton, tied Murray, tied Fitz, & Trubisky. Sorry I didn't include the back-up Kyle Murray.

So in response to the idea that you changed the argument to fit a narrative, you decided to...change the argument to fit a narrative? ?

 

Dude, just use TD%; it provides all of the context that you’re pretending to want: it tells you how often a QB throws a TD pass relative to how many passing attempts that QB has.

 

Easy as it gets. And it isn’t like it props up Allen outrageously; he’s 18th. The problem is that you’re emotionally invested in an outcome, and that won’t allow you to be objective here.

 

Objectively, anywhere between 16 and 25 is a defensible take on Allen. Problem is that whackos come in here with these “bottom 5” type takes and then have to make things up or twist and flail wildly to shoehorn some barely-applicable statistic into becoming the de facto case.

 

And for the record, no, you didn’t make a fact-based argument. He isn’t bottom 5 in passing TDs, and factoring in TD-passes on a per-attempt basis actually raises his ranking relative to the guys you mention above.

 

Just look at it honestly and you won’t get hammered. @Biscuit_97 is a pretty big Allen doubter and he manages to stay grounded in his points the vast majority of the time.

[Troll Toll]

17 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

So in response to the idea that you changed the argument to fit a narrative, you decided to...change the argument to fit a narrative? ?

 

Dude, just use TD%; it provides all of the context that you’re pretending to want: it tells you how often a QB throws a TD pass relative to how many passing attempts that QB has.

 

Easy as it gets. And it isn’t like it props up Allen outrageously; he’s 18th. The problem is that you’re emotionally invested in an outcome, and that won’t allow you to be objective here.

 

Objectively, anywhere between 16 and 25 is a defensible take on Allen. Problem is that whackos come in here with these “bottom 5” type takes and then have to make things up or twist and flail wildly to shoehorn some barely-applicable statistic into becoming the de facto case.

 

And for the record, no, you didn’t make a fact-based argument. He isn’t bottom 5 in passing TDs, and factoring in TD-passes on a per-attempt basis actually raises his ranking relative to the guys you mention above.

 

Just look at it honestly and you won’t get hammered. @Biscuit_97 is a pretty big Allen doubter and he manages to stay grounded in his points the vast majority of the time.

TDs itself seems like a bad area to argue against Allen in. He was top 10 in NFL in total TDs. Given his skillset he can run a decent amount in with less risk than putting the ball in the air. IMO there were already very few QBs that could have gotten us to the playoffs last year. Josh was a workhorse and was basically our whole offense.

 

The biggest obstacle for Josh is Daboll. He killed a lot of drives with bad playcalling or run, run, pass. Josh converts a ton of 3rd and longs that hide Daboll’s inadequacy. 

 

 

[BigBillsFan]

40 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

So in response to the idea that you changed the argument to fit a narrative, you decided to...change the argument to fit a narrative? ?

 

Dude, just use TD%; it provides all of the context that you’re pretending to want: it tells you how often a QB throws a TD pass relative to how many passing attempts that QB has.

 

Easy as it gets. And it isn’t like it props up Allen outrageously; he’s 18th. The problem is that you’re emotionally invested in an outcome, and that won’t allow you to be objective here.

 

Objectively, anywhere between 16 and 25 is a defensible take on Allen. Problem is that whackos come in here with these “bottom 5” type takes and then have to make things up or twist and flail wildly to shoehorn some barely-applicable statistic into becoming the de facto case.

 

And for the record, no, you didn’t make a fact-based argument. He isn’t bottom 5 in passing TDs, and factoring in TD-passes on a per-attempt basis actually raises his ranking relative to the guys you mention above.

 

Just look at it honestly and you won’t get hammered. @Biscuit_97 is a pretty big Allen doubter and he manages to stay grounded in his points the vast majority of the time.

 

My facts weren't wrong, neither are yours. I don't dispute your argument or your facts. Your argument has merit and mine does as well.

 

Your argument is he throws at a higher percent of TDs per attempt and that's a better measure. Fine that's a good argument. Mine was as a starter for a season he is in the bottom 5 of TDs thrown and that has merit as well meaning you have to deliver with your arm as a QB no matter how many attempts you have. If you have less attempts that is also a measure of completion % giving you less chances. We'll see how this pans out next year, I'm not discussing it anymore, I don't have time.

 

Also, I'm going to get hammered for anything about Josh. Biscuit gets slammed too. He's not slam free. No amount of "grounding" stops people from calling you names, strangely if you did the same it would be seen as "crude" or "emotional" because you're the heel and they are championing the hero, or watch how insulting people are calling me a bull****** and no one calls them out for incivility. It's a strange hypocrisy.

 

I've read this forum for years and the other forum when it still existed and posted in them 15 years ago. Losman was championed, EJ was championed, and the slightest regress of Captain Checkdown because he was a 4th rounder was tolerated. I see how emotional people are when discussing 1st round QBs and in the incivility against people is tolerated when it's in favor of 1st round QBs.

[Mango]

7 hours ago, White Linen said:

 

The Dolphins draft after us.  They were better?  

 

So you go by how many teams are after us vs our 2019 finish?

 

The conversation is already over.  We were a top 10 team last year.

 

Ummmm....that was the Stills Tunsil trade with Houston. That is Houstons original pick. So yes, they were a better team than us last year.

 

And yes, that is how that draft works. It ranks everybody's overall season, and then you pick worst to best.

 

[thebandit27]

28 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

My facts weren't wrong, neither are yours. I don't dispute your argument or your facts. Your argument has merit and mine does as well.

 

Your argument is he throws at a higher percent of TDs per attempt and that's a better measure. Fine that's a good argument. Mine was as a starter for a season he is in the bottom 5 of TDs thrown and that has merit as well meaning you have to deliver with your arm as a QB no matter how many attempts you have. If you have less attempts that is also a measure of completion % giving you less chances. We'll see how this pans out next year, I'm not discussing it anymore, I don't have time.

 

Also, I'm going to get hammered for anything about Josh. Biscuit gets slammed too. He's not slam free. No amount of "grounding" stops people from calling you names, strangely if you did the same it would be seen as "crude" or "emotional" because you're the heel and they are championing the hero, or watch how insulting people are calling me a bull****** and no one calls them out for incivility. It's a strange hypocrisy.

 

I've read this forum for years and the other forum when it still existed and posted in them 15 years ago. Losman was championed, EJ was championed, and the slightest regress of Captain Checkdown because he was a 4th rounder was tolerated. I see how emotional people are when discussing 1st round QBs and in the incivility against people is tolerated when it's in favor of 1st round QBs.

Sorry, but judging quantity of TD passes without considering number of attempts isn’t reasonable. And the idea that a QB needs to produce a high number of TD passes regardless of number of attempts strikes me as the exact opposite of reasonable.

 

Incivility isn’t tolerated purely based on opinions differing; the folks that deserve blasting are the ones that can’t be honest about the discussion. Though I think we all know who those few are...and yeah, there are definitely posters that can’t abide any criticism of the kid without pitchforking. That’s equally stupid.

[Bulldog]

Amazing how quickly some people degenerate into name calling over almost any topic - not just Josh Allen. For goodness sake - every season is a prove it season in the NFL for every player - it is the nature of the business. If Josh Allen had not shown significant improvement in year #2 (which he did) - then the legitimate narrative this Spring would have been the search for his successor. In year three he must show significant improvement over year #2 if he hopes for a long term NFL career. This is a fact of life for all NFL players. Some superstars or high draft picks get a little longer of a leash than someone like an UDFA - however the "leash" has a limited length for any player in the NFL.     

[jrober38]

This thread should be re-titled "Would you pay Josh $35 million a year based off what he's shown so far?"

 

The answer to that question will tell you if he needs to "prove it". 

[Chicken Boo]

9 hours ago, pop gun said:

I dont understand this mindset. You admit he needs more weapons and better blocking up front but dis on him for not having great stats. Can't have it both ways. This kid is going to be a stud, you can see it happening, it's too bad if you cant because it is a thing of beauty to watch. He has it and I'm excited where this team is headed.

 

He needs more weapons because he isn't at the point in his career where he can make stars of average talent.  He needs better blocking because he doesn't go through his reads fast enough and holds on to the ball for too long.

 

He's developing, but he isn't there yet.  Surrounding him with more talent puts him in the best position to succeed.  

Edited March 24, 2020 by Chicken Boo

[thebandit27]

22 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

This thread should be re-titled "Would you pay Josh $35 million a year based off what he's shown so far?"

 

The answer to that question will tell you if he needs to "prove it". 

Well, since no QB in NFL history has ever been given that amount of money, and Allen literally can’t be extended right now, that’s a totally irrelevant question.

9 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

He needs more weapons because he isn't at the point in his career where he can make stars of average talent.  He needs better blocking because he doesn't go through his reads fast enough and holds on to the ball for too long.

 

He's developing, but he isn't there yet.  Surrounding him with more talent puts him in the best position to succeed.  

Well yes, that’s what smart teams do for their young QBs. You see it in KC, you saw it in LA with Goff, and you saw it in Chicago with Trubisky. 
 

Very few QBs are the types that can make average weapons into a high-octane offense. The better approach is to build up an arsenal of elite weapons when the QB is on his rookie deal and hope he’s a good enough playmaker to take advantage.

[whorlnut]

6 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Too bad he used 'em all up before the playoff game.  Coulda used one there.

 

granted a lot of players could have impacted the game if they hadn't flubbed up, but if you are THE GUY, the $30,000,000.00 man, then THAT'S when you gotta make it happen, ie, win the game someway somehow.

I think you are missing the fact that he moved the team down into FG range to tie the game and send it to overtime. And the fact that if Knox or Morse hits a block on the QB keeper in OT that we probably would have won the gMe on a FG. 
 

Yes...he had a poor second half. But let’s be honest...the defense let up when Watson started going off and the play calls from Daboll were very conservative. They were definitely playing not to lose, which is not what you want to do in the playoffs on the road. 

[Cripple Creek]

11 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Well, since no QB in NFL history has ever been given that amount of money, and Allen literally can’t be extended right now, that’s a totally irrelevant question.

 

Irrelevant to yourself, perhaps.  It is, however, exactly where the Bills are right now.  Allen performs well in 2020 and shows improvement in his personal performance then he buys the FO one more year.  If he regresses, isn't seen as improved over 2019 then it's a different story.  That extension isn't far off and I'd put $35m at the bottom end of what "franchise" QBs will be getting if our world returns to "normal."

[YattaOkasan]

Just now, Cripple Creek said:

Irrelevant to yourself, perhaps.  It is, however, exactly where the Bills are right now.  Allen performs well in 2020 and shows improvement in his personal performance then he buys the FO one more year.  If he regresses, isn't seen as improved over 2019 then it's a different story.  That extension isn't far off and I'd put $35m at the bottom end of what "franchise" QBs will be getting if our world returns to "normal."

So QB contracts in the next two years are gonna explode so much that an unprecedented contract will be bottom end for a franchise QB? I feel good that Mahomes will reset the QB market and it won’t be for 40 mil so I don’t think 35 mil will be bottom end. 

[whorlnut]

3 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Except I used facts, facts that don't fit narrative.

 

Look it's a fact so much so that all people who disagree say is "He changed the argument". Gotta say if that's the best you have you know you don't have an argument.

 

Let's try this again since I'm against "facts". He finished bottom 5 in starters for QBs thrown. Unless you want to factor in back-ups and guys that played 10 games that's the truth. He played a full season and was in the bottom 5.

 

The only QBs he finished above was Brissett, Dalton, tied Murray, tied Fitz, & Trubisky. Sorry I didn't include the back-up Kyle Murray.

If you are indeed a fan of the Bills, then why are you arguing so hard against Allen?  Is it because you have a burning desire to be right that you can’t let it go?  We should all want him to succeed, but you are seeming to make it your mission to trash him and tell us all why he won’t. It’s pretty sad. 

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

Irrelevant to yourself, perhaps.  It is, however, exactly where the Bills are right now.  Allen performs well in 2020 and shows improvement in his personal performance then he buys the FO one more year.  If he regresses, isn't seen as improved over 2019 then it's a different story.  That extension isn't far off and I'd put $35m at the bottom end of what "franchise" QBs will be getting if our world returns to "normal."

Nah, the point they’ll be at after 2020 is determining if Allen is trending toward the kind of player they’d be happy to pay after 2022.

 

If he is, great. If he’s not, then they need to find another guy to compete in 2021.

[Cripple Creek]

1 minute ago, YattaOkasan said:

So QB contracts in the next two years are gonna explode so much that an unprecedented contract will be bottom end for a franchise QB? I feel good that Mahomes will reset the QB market and it won’t be for 40 mil so I don’t think 35 mil will be bottom end. 

Time will tell.  If your memory is better than mine revisit this when the numbers are revealed.  I'll bet ya a beer.

Just now, thebandit27 said:

Nah, the point they’ll be at after 2020 is determining if Allen is trending toward the kind of player they’d be happy to pay after 2022.

 

 

That is the entire point of this thread.

[Big Gun]

1 hour ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Your argument is he throws at a higher percent of TDs per attempt and that's a better measure. Fine that's a good argument. Mine was as a starter for a season he is in the bottom 5 of TDs thrown and that has merit as well meaning you have to deliver with your arm as a QB no matter how many attempts you have. If you have less attempts that is also a measure of completion % giving you less chances. We'll see how this pans out next year, I'm not discussing it anymore, I don't have time.

 

If that is you argument, strictly TD passes thrown, Allen is tied for 21st, not bottom 5, IDK what to tell you as stats don't lie!

 

Rk	Player	Tm	Age	Pos	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD ▼	TD%	Int	Int%	1D	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD
1	Lamar Jackson*+	BAL	22	QB	15	15	13-2-0	265	401	66.1	3127	36	9.0	6	1.5	161	83	7.8	8.9	11.8	208.5	113.3		23	106	7.13	8.19	5.4	1	2
2	Jameis Winston	TAM	25	QB	16	16	7-9-0	380	626	60.7	5109	33	5.3	30	4.8	243	71	8.2	7.1	13.4	319.3	84.3		47	282	7.17	6.15	7.0	2	2
3	Russell Wilson*	SEA	31	QB	16	16	11-5-0	341	516	66.1	4110	31	6.0	5	1.0	190	60	8.0	8.7	12.1	256.9	106.3		48	319	6.72	7.42	8.5	4	5
4	Dak Prescott	DAL	26	QB	16	16	8-8-0	388	596	65.1	4902	30	5.0	11	1.8	229	62	8.2	8.4	12.6	306.4	99.7		23	151	7.68	7.84	3.7
5	Carson Wentz	PHI	27	QB	16	16	9-7-0	388	607	63.9	4039	27	4.4	7	1.2	213	53	6.7	7.0	10.4	252.4	93.1		37	230	5.91	6.26	5.7	2	4
6	Jimmy Garoppolo	SFO	28	QB	16	16	13-3-0	329	476	69.1	3978	27	5.7	13	2.7	193	75	8.4	8.3	12.1	248.6	102.0		36	237	7.31	7.22	7.0	4	4
7	Drew Brees*	NOR	40	QB	11	11	8-3-0	281	378	74.3	2979	27	7.1	4	1.1	159	61	7.9	8.8	10.6	270.8	116.3		12	89	7.41	8.33	3.1	1	2
8	Matt Ryan	ATL	34	QB	15	15	7-8-0	408	616	66.2	4466	26	4.2	14	2.3	228	93	7.3	7.1	10.9	297.7	92.1		48	316	6.25	6.08	7.2	3	2
9	Aaron Rodgers*	GNB	36	QB	16	16	13-3-0	353	569	62.0	4002	26	4.6	4	0.7	189	74	7.0	7.6	11.3	250.1	95.4		36	284	6.15	6.71	6.0	2	3
10	Deshaun Watson*	HOU	24	QB	15	15	10-5-0	333	495	67.3	3852	26	5.3	12	2.4	191	54	7.8	7.7	11.6	256.8	98.0		44	257	6.67	6.63	8.2	3	5
11	Patrick Mahomes*	KAN	24	QB	14	14	11-3-0	319	484	65.9	4031	26	5.4	5	1.0	176	83	8.3	8.9	12.6	287.9	105.3		17	127	7.79	8.38	3.4	1	1
12	Kirk Cousins*	MIN	31	QB	15	15	10-5-0	307	444	69.1	3603	26	5.9	6	1.4	165	66	8.1	8.7	11.7	240.2	107.4		28	206	7.20	7.73	5.9	1	1
13	Tom Brady	NWE	42	QB	16	16	12-4-0	373	613	60.8	4057	24	3.9	8	1.3	193	59	6.6	6.8	10.9	253.6	88.0		27	185	6.05	6.24	4.2	1	1
14	Daniel Jones	NYG	22	QB	13	12	3-9-0	284	459	61.9	3027	24	5.2	12	2.6	140	75	6.6	6.5	10.7	232.8	87.7		38	295	5.50	5.38	7.6	1	2
15	Philip Rivers	LAC	38	QB	16	16	5-11-0	390	591	66.0	4615	23	3.9	20	3.4	217	84	7.8	7.1	11.8	288.4	88.5		34	222	7.03	6.32	5.4	1	2
16	Jared Goff	LAR	25	QB	16	16	9-7-0	394	626	62.9	4638	22	3.5	16	2.6	220	66	7.4	7.0	11.8	289.9	86.5		22	170	6.90	6.46	3.4	1	2
17	Baker Mayfield	CLE	24	QB	16	16	6-10-0	317	534	59.4	3827	22	4.1	21	3.9	179	89	7.2	6.2	12.1	239.2	78.8		40	285	6.17	5.29	7.0	1	1
18	Ryan Tannehill*	TEN	31	QB	12	10	7-3-0	201	286	70.3	2742	22	7.7	6	2.1	126	91	9.6	10.2	13.6	228.5	117.5		31	212	7.98	8.52	9.8	2	3
19	Derek Carr	OAK	28	QB	16	16	7-9-0	361	513	70.4	4054	21	4.1	8	1.6	191	75	7.9	8.0	11.2	253.4	100.8		29	184	7.14	7.25	5.4	2	3
20	Gardner Minshew	JAX	23	QB	14	12	6-6-0	285	470	60.6	3271	21	4.5	6	1.3	150	70	7.0	7.3	11.5	233.6	91.2		33	184	6.14	6.44	6.6	3	3
21	Kyler Murray	ARI	22	QB	16	16	5-10-1	349	542	64.4	3722	20	3.7	12	2.2	173	88	6.9	6.6	10.7	232.6	87.4		48	309	5.78	5.55	8.1	1	2
22	Ryan Fitzpatrick	MIA	37	QB	15	13	5-8-0	311	502	62.0	3529	20	4.0	13	2.6	182	51	7.0	6.7	11.3	235.3	85.5		40	209	6.13	5.78	7.4	3	4
23	Josh Allen	BUF	23	QB	16	16	10-6-0	271	461	58.8	3089	20	4.3	9	2.0	146	53	6.7	6.7	11.4	193.1	85.3		38	237	5.72	5.71	7.6	4	5
24	Sam Darnold	NYJ	22	QB	13	13	7-6-0	273	441	61.9	3024	19	4.3	13	2.9	147	92	6.9	6.4	11.1	232.6	84.3		33	212	5.93	5.50	7.0	2	3
25	Matthew Stafford	DET	31	QB	8	8	3-4-1	187	291	64.3	2499	19	6.5	5	1.7	117	66	8.6	9.1	13.4	312.4	106.0		18	137	7.64	8.15	5.8	2	1
26	Jacoby Brissett	IND	27	QB	15	15	7-8-0	272	447	60.9	2942	18	4.0	6	1.3	143	50	6.6	6.8	10.8	196.1	88.0		27	159	5.87	6.06	5.7	2	2
27	Mitchell Trubisky	CHI	25	QB	15	15	8-7-0	326	516	63.2	3138	17	3.3	10	1.9	156	53	6.1	5.9	9.6	209.2	83.0		38	234	5.24	5.04	6.9	3	3
28	Kyle Allen	CAR	23	QB	13	12	5-7-0	303	489	62.0	3322	17	3.5	16	3.3	188	52	6.8	6.0	11.0	255.5	80.0		46	397	5.47	4.76	8.6	0	1
29	Andy Dalton	CIN	32	QB	13	13	2-11-0	314	528	59.5	3494	16	3.0	14	2.7	170	66	6.6	6.0	11.1	268.8	78.3		37	249	5.74	5.19	6.5
30	Mason Rudolph	PIT	24	QB	10	8	5-3-0	176	283	62.2	1765	13	4.6	9	3.2	80	76	6.2	5.7	10.0	176.5	82.0		15	124	5.51	5.02	5.0	1	1
31	Case Keenum	WAS	31	QB	10	8	1-7-0	160	247	64.8	1707	11	4.5	5	2.0	83	69	6.9	6.9	10.7	170.7	91.3		15	145	5.96	5.94	5.7
32	Teddy Bridgewater	NOR	27	qb	9	5	5-0-0	133	196	67.9	1384	9	4.6	2	1.0	67	45	7.1	7.5	10.4	153.8	99.1		12	89	6.23	6.66	5.8	1	2

[whorlnut]

2 hours ago, Troll Toll said:

TDs itself seems like a bad area to argue against Allen in. He was top 10 in NFL in total TDs. Given his skillset he can run a decent amount in with less risk than putting the ball in the air. IMO there were already very few QBs that could have gotten us to the playoffs last year. Josh was a workhorse and was basically our whole offense.

 

The biggest obstacle for Josh is Daboll. He killed a lot of drives with bad playcalling or run, run, pass. Josh converts a ton of 3rd and longs that hide Daboll’s inadequacy. 

 

 

Great point on Daboll. I have used this argument many times. Allen isn’t the one calling the conservative plays when we have a lead. It’s Daboll who trots out Gore and calls two running plays. I think if we allowed Allen to continue to play the way he was in the second half of the Houston game as the first half, we would have won that game. However, Daboll completely went into prevent and they put it in the hands of our defense who ran into a juiced up Watson. Before Daboll could counter, all the momentum had turned. Then, Allen had to feel like he had to do everything on his own and we all know it fell apart.