GunnerBill Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: I don't. I actually believe that if he plays two seasons like 2019 and the Bills don't exercise the fifth year option, he will be a star someplace else. I think Allen is a star in the making. I understand that's just an opinion, but I think he's too talented and too committed to succeeding to fail. I think he found the perfect head coach to nurture and grow him, year after year. I think Allen understands that. Five years from now Allen will have mastered a complex offensive system for the Buffalo Bills, the Bills will be winning a lot of games, and Allen will be recognized as on his way to the Hall of Fame. Allen and McDermott are Brady and Belichick. I've been enjoying the ride since Allen wowed me with a couple of passes in his rookie preseason, and I see no reason why it is going to stop. I just hope I live long enough to see Allen in full bloom. They have to take the option decision after 2020 and I think he would have to regress for them not to take up the option. I can't remember the last time a first round QB who was his team's starter did not have the option picked up? Christian Ponder maybe? But he had lost his job midway through year 3. I guess I am just still on the fence about his long term future whereas you are already committed pretty strongly one way. I am optimistic and I think you have a chance to be right but I'm not sold enough on what I have seen to say you will be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 25 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: They have to take the option decision after 2020 and I think he would have to regress for them not to take up the option. I can't remember the last time a first round QB who was his team's starter did not have the option picked up? Christian Ponder maybe? But he had lost his job midway through year 3. I guess I am just still on the fence about his long term future whereas you are already committed pretty strongly one way. I am optimistic and I think you have a chance to be right but I'm not sold enough on what I have seen to say you will be. I'm not committed. I believe, and I will believe until he shows me it's a mistake to believe in him. A flat 2020 won't show me. I didn't realize the option has to be exercised after the third year. I think there's no question they exercise the option. He'd have to be horrible in 2020, or run off with Kim Pegula, or Terry, or or Mrs. Beane and Mrs. McDermott, together, before they wouldn't exercise the option. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: I'm not committed. I believe, and I will believe until he shows me it's a mistake to believe in him. A flat 2020 won't show me. I didn't realize the option has to be exercised after the third year. I think there's no question they exercise the option. He'd have to be horrible in 2020, or run off with Kim Pegula, or Terry, or or Mrs. Beane and Mrs. McDermott, together, before they wouldn't exercise the option. I guess belief isn't a big thing in my life. I am a show me first guy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 3 hours ago, Shaw66 said: Why is this the year? What if 2020 and 2021 are just like 2019 and 2022-2029 are as you request. Why does it have to happen in 2020? Because we have to decide if we're going to pick up his 5th year option and the $30 mil price tag that comes with it at the end of the year. 4 hours ago, JaCrispy said: No need to pull up Jones’ stats...I actually thought he had a better rookie season than Allen’s sophomore season...and, imo, he has already proven he is much more efficient as a passer- even with Allen’s improvements... And that really says something because that’s how low Allen’s bar was...Next year Allen’s goal is to show he can be as efficient as Jones’ rookie season... If he can do that, I will start to think maybe we have a chance at something...I remain cautiously hopeful though... Jones did all this with one of the worst group of pass catchers in the NFL and a very poor offensive line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwistofFate Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 3 hours ago, Shaw66 said: Why is this the year? What if 2020 and 2021 are just like 2019 and 2022-2029 are as you request. Why does it have to happen in 2020? Its this year because if the light bulb doesn't stay on and real proof that this guy is our franchise guy doesn't materialize, you really need to examine that position in the off-season. If he isn't getting it in year 3 with the continuity, added weapons and growth of teammates around him, what makes you think it happens in year 4? Then when you get to year 4, whats your plan for year 5 at the position if he doesn't improve? Chosing wrong and hanging on too long puts you in Qb limbo. During this limbo you are wasting the rest of the talent on the team. What are you left with? The same thing we've been left with for decades....Holcombs, Ortons, Barkley's, Fitzpatricks, etc. If he flounders this year, im looking at a Qb in the first 3 rounds of the 2021 draft, or grabing the best free agent Qb out there, and looking at a 1st round Qb in 2022. There's no time to waste if a Qb isnt showing he's a franchise guy. Going by the 3 year rule, if your Qb is a bust, at best, you are set back 4-6 years. This team is legitimately a Qb away from being a SERIOUS contender. If its Allen, hooray, if not, do not waste the rest of the talent. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 1 minute ago, TwistofFate said: Its this year because if the light bulb doesn't stay on and real proof that this guy is our franchise guy doesn't materialize, you really need to examine that position in the off-season. If he isn't getting it in year 3 with the continuity, added weapons and growth of teammates around him, what makes you think it happens in year 4? Then when you get to year 4, whats your plan for year 5 at the position if he doesn't improve? Chosing wrong and hanging on too long puts you in Qb limbo. During this limbo you are wasting the rest of the talent on the team. What are you left with? The same thing we've been left with for decades....Holcombs, Ortons, Barkley's, Fitzpatricks, etc. If he flounders this year, im looking at a Qb in the first 3 rounds of the 2021 draft, or grabing the best free agent Qb out there, and looking at a 1st round Qb in 2022. There's no time to waste if a Qb isnt showing he's a franchise guy. Going by the 3 year rule, if your Qb is a bust, at best, you are set back 4-6 years. This team is legitimately a Qb away from being a SERIOUS contender. If its Allen, hooray, if not, do not waste the rest of the talent. No need to over complicate things. He needs to improve because we have to decide at the end of this year if we're picking up his 5th year option and the $30+ mil salary that comes with it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, TwistofFate said: Its this year because if the light bulb doesn't stay on and real proof that this guy is our franchise guy doesn't materialize, you really need to examine that position in the off-season. If he isn't getting it in year 3 with the continuity, added weapons and growth of teammates around him, what makes you think it happens in year 4? Then when you get to year 4, whats your plan for year 5 at the position if he doesn't improve? Chosing wrong and hanging on too long puts you in Qb limbo. During this limbo you are wasting the rest of the talent on the team. What are you left with? The same thing we've been left with for decades....Holcombs, Ortons, Barkley's, Fitzpatricks, etc. If he flounders this year, im looking at a Qb in the first 3 rounds of the 2021 draft, or grabing the best free agent Qb out there, and looking at a 1st round Qb in 2022. There's no time to waste if a Qb isnt showing he's a franchise guy. Going by the 3 year rule, if your Qb is a bust, at best, you are set back 4-6 years. This team is legitimately a Qb away from being a SERIOUS contender. If its Allen, hooray, if not, do not waste the rest of the talent. That's possible, but not necessarily the case. McDermott and his coaches will evaluate Josh after 2020 just like after 2019. They will decide what it is that he needs to learn, and they will decide whether they think he can learn it. If they think he can learn it, they keep going. The process is not about his numbers. It's about what he knows, what he still needs to learn and whether he can learn it. It isn't about his passer rating in 2020 or about his 300 yard games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: That's possible, but not necessarily the case. McDermott and his coaches will evaluate Josh after 2020 just like after 2019. They will decide what it is that he needs to learn, and they will decide whether they think he can learn it. If they think he can learn it, they keep going. The process is not about his numbers. It's about what he knows, what he still needs to learn and whether he can learn it. It isn't about his passer rating in 2020 or about his 300 yard games. In all seriousness, if Josh Allen doesn't improve considerably this year I'm drafting a new guy next year. He'll have had: - the same coaching staff for three years - one of the best receiving groups in the NFL - a solid running game - a solid line - an elite defense keeping scores low He needs to improve by leaps and bounds this year because reality is most guys don't get much better after their 3rd year starting. Their are outliers but it's rare. The big jumps are years 2 and 3. Also, I'm not paying $30 mil for bottom 5 QB passing play. But that might just be me. Edited April 15, 2020 by jrober38 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: That's possible, but not necessarily the case. McDermott and his coaches will evaluate Josh after 2020 just like after 2019. They will decide what it is that he needs to learn, and they will decide whether they think he can learn it. If they think he can learn it, they keep going. The process is not about his numbers. It's about what he knows, what he still needs to learn and whether he can learn it. It isn't about his passer rating in 2020 or about his 300 yard games. For sure it is not about pure numbers. But if he is improved I think the numbers will be improved as a result. That is the point really. The excuses for why the numbers might not improve are not plentiful..... sure maybe 3/5ths of his starting Oline go down week 1, or maybe Stefon Diggs retires on the eve of the season to go and become an adult entertainer or maybe Singletary blows a knee in camp.... but all things being somewhat equal if Josh's play improves the number will, at least to some extent, show that improvement. Doesn't mean you only box score scout but I think by and large one follows the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straight Hucklebuck Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 Shaw66 - One of the things that needs to be stated is, if this isn't a make or break year in your mind for Allen, and it can be further down the road in 2021 or beyond, then the assumption being made is that the defense continues to be near the top of the league in points per game allowed. Because if Allen stats plateau around 3,000 yards, 20 TDs and 60% completion, then the assumption I'm making is we aren't scoring many more points. So the game flow has to go the same way, tight 19-16 wins. But that's another year on Hyde, Poyer, another year older for Hughes, Addison, and the Bills will need to extend Tre and keep Milano. So that's why I can't justify a throwaway year for Allen. He needs to get better relative to the league, not just his rookie self. We're past measuring him against the raw prospect he was. The investment has been made, the defense is good right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said: Shaw66 - One of the things that needs to be stated is, if this isn't a make or break year in your mind for Allen, and it can be further down the road in 2021 or beyond, then the assumption being made is that the defense continues to be near the top of the league in points per game allowed. Because if Allen stats plateau around 3,000 yards, 20 TDs and 60% completion, then the assumption I'm making is we aren't scoring many more points. So the game flow has to go the same way, tight 19-16 wins. But that's another year on Hyde, Poyer, another year older for Hughes, Addison, and the Bills will need to extend Tre and keep Milano. So that's why I can't justify a throwaway year for Allen. He needs to get better relative to the league, not just his rookie self. We're past measuring him against the raw prospect he was. The investment has been made, the defense is good right now. The Bills are built to contend for the Super Bowl this year. That won't happen unless the QB is posting a QB rating in the low to mid 90s. Elite skill position weapons on offense, solid running game, above average offensive line, elite defense. It's all there. This roster, minus the QB, is absolutely elite by NFL standards. If Allen becomes a top 15 QB, the Bills probably win 12-13 games and might be hosting playoff games next January. Edited April 15, 2020 by jrober38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straight Hucklebuck Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 15 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: That's possible, but not necessarily the case. McDermott and his coaches will evaluate Josh after 2020 just like after 2019. They will decide what it is that he needs to learn, and they will decide whether they think he can learn it. If they think he can learn it, they keep going. The process is not about his numbers. It's about what he knows, what he still needs to learn and whether he can learn it. It isn't about his passer rating in 2020 or about his 300 yard games. But regardless of how much we like Josh as a hard worker, it needs to be noted that Bills fans were saying the same things about Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tyrod Taylor. All three of them plateaued, didn't get better, and thus didn't get a 4th year (except Nix/Gailey keeping Trent around for the first two games of 2010). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lieutenant Aldo Raine Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, jrober38 said: In all seriousness, if Josh Allen doesn't improve considerably this year I'm drafting a new guy next year. He'll have had: - the same coaching staff for three years - one of the best receiving groups in the NFL - a solid running game - a solid line - an elite defense keeping scores low He needs to improve by leaps and bounds this year because reality is most guys don't get much better after their 3rd year starting. Their are outliers but it's rare. The big jumps are years 2 and 3. Also, I'm not paying $30 mil for bottom 5 QB passing play. But that might just be me. You forgot to caveat this by saying, "as a fan" unless you are secretly Brandon Beane. Because that's all you and the rest of us are...FANS!!!! Bit** and moan all you want about the QB or any other players, you have NO SAY in their future good or bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said: You forgot to caveat this by saying, "as a fan" unless you are secretly Brandon Beane. Because that's all you and the rest of us are...FANS!!!! Bit** and moan all you want about the QB or any other players, you have NO SAY in their future good or bad. Oh well we won't bother discussing it then. Let's shut the board down. Go home everyone. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said: You forgot to caveat this by saying, "as a fan" unless you are secretly Brandon Beane. Because that's all you and the rest of us are...FANS!!!! Bit** and moan all you want about the QB or any other players, you have NO SAY in their future good or bad. Was this really necessary or are people that dumb where this needs to be spelled out? Cleary it’s his opinion on what he would do or want to see us do. That’s kinda the point of this place. Edited April 15, 2020 by Bangarang 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stank_Nasty Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, jrober38 said: The Bills are built to contend for the Super Bowl this year. That won't happen unless the QB is posting a QB rating in the low to mid 90s. Elite skill position weapons on offense, solid running game, above average offensive line, elite defense. It's all there. This roster, minus the QB, is absolutely elite by NFL standards. If Allen becomes a top 15 QB, the Bills probably win 12-13 games and might be hosting playoff games next January. Overall I would argue very confidently he was a top 20 qb last year. In fact I can find a handful of sites year end rankings by panel(Including NFL.com) that said the same thing. If all he did was improve the deep ball accuracy and held par on everything else while his wr’s stop dropping a league high % of passes he’s a top 15 qb this year. Luckily I’m confident he’ll improve on more than that because he’s already shown the capacity to improve multiple areas drastically. That also ties me into your earlier “he needs to improve leaps and bounds” comment. That’s an absolute crock, IMO. He could show slight improvements across the board(being modest)and he’a cemented in that 14-18 range. 8 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said: You forgot to caveat this by saying, "as a fan" unless you are secretly Brandon Beane. Because that's all you and the rest of us are...FANS!!!! Bit** and moan all you want about the QB or any other players, you have NO SAY in their future good or bad. Rober has been drafting a new qb ever since The 7th pick of the 2018 draft. Edited April 15, 2020 by Stank_Nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said: You forgot to caveat this by saying, "as a fan" unless you are secretly Brandon Beane. Because that's all you and the rest of us are...FANS!!!! Bit** and moan all you want about the QB or any other players, you have NO SAY in their future good or bad. You don't say?!?! I guess we can close down the message board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lieutenant Aldo Raine Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Bangarang said: Was this really necessary or are people that dumb where this needs to be spelled out? Cleary it’s his opinion on what he would do or want to see us do. That’s kinda the point of this place. Clearly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lieutenant Aldo Raine Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, jrober38 said: You don't say?!?! I guess we can close down the message board. Like I said, whine all you want on this board...get it off your chest. I enjoy poking back at all you doubters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said: Like I said, whine all you want on this board...get it off your chest. I enjoy poking back at all you doubters. Who’s whining? I haven’t read the entire thread but the last several pages have been a civil discussion. And now you’re admitting to being a troll.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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