Mikie2times Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 When they first brought up March Madness, I didn't think any chance of that happening could occur. If this experience has taught me one thing it's that everybody involved keeps underestimating it's ability to disrupt normal life from work/business to athletics and everything in between. Without a vaccine I think at best we will see a shortened MLB season and likely outright CXL and if that is the case we could be looking at NCAA and NFL being at risk for 2020. Picture how much better it needs to get for us to allow 80,000 people in a stadium? 1
CaptnCoke11 Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 I think the season is in real jeopardy. If this lasts into summer and training camp is lost it’s over 2
HappyDays Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 It already has in some way. OTAs are delayed indefinitely. That could very well turn into training camps being cancelled. And yes ultimately that could mean the season itself being delayed or cancelled. No one knows how long this is going to go on for. I've seen estimates ranging from 4 months to 9 months. 1
MJS Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 What is CXL? 22 minutes ago, KzooMike said: When they first brought up March Madness, I didn't think any chance of that happening could occur. If this experience has taught me one thing it's that everybody involved keeps underestimating it's ability to disrupt normal life from work/business to athletics and everything in between. Without a vaccine I think at best we will see a shortened MLB season and likely outright CXL and if that is the case we could be looking at NCAA and NFL being at risk for 2020. Picture how much better it needs to get for us to allow 80,000 people in a stadium? They could play without fans in the stadium. Most of the revenue comes from tv deals anyway. It would be strange, though. 1
jrober38 Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 22 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said: I think the season is in real jeopardy. If this lasts into summer and training camp is lost it’s over I agree. We may not have live professional sports this year. This is expected to last 12-18 months, or until a vaccine is developed.
mjt328 Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 I've been reading/listening to dozens of doctors and health experts. Nobody knows for sure how long this will last, because they are going by only 2-3 months worth of data on a virus that is totally new to the world. And unfortunately, the country that has been going through this the longest (China) was very secretive at first - so it's unclear whether the data they are putting out is reliable. The next few weeks will hopefully tell us a lot. - If they can be believed, China has supposedly hit the downside of this, and the country is gradually returning to work. The world will be watching to see if they get a second-wave once their citizens leave quarantine and start getting around each other again. - How well will the U.S. efforts to slow down infections work? And how much progress can we make in improving the country's medical capacity in that amount of time? The unique thing about this virus, is that it doesn't actually have an extremely high death rate... IF the sick can get proper hospital care. The problem (as can be seen in Italy) is that it's extremely contagious, and if thousands get sick at the same time, the hospitals simply can't handle everyone. - Is this strand of the virus seasonal? If it is, the spring and summer months should give us additional time to prepare for another outbreak next year. - At best, a vaccine is several months away. But there other drugs already being tested which hopefully can treat the symptoms and decrease the number of serious cases requiring hospitalization. Like with other viruses, there is also an expectation that humans will gradually develop a level of herd immunity. The recovery rate of young/healthy people who get this is very high. The key is all about NOT overloading the current medical system. Hospitals, beds, doctors, ventilators, etc. Even if society doesn't get back 100% to normal immediately in the next few weeks, it's very possible that we can get there gradually. For instance, let the recovered/young/healthy get back to work, while continuing to have strict quarantine rules and social distancing for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Yes, there are lots of doomsday predictions out there. But there are also glimpses of hope. I find it easier to take this day-by-day, and hope that everything turns out for the best, rather than fearing the worst. 10 1
bigK14094 Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 The 1918 Pandemic had three waves over 18 months.......likely to be the case today as well. Might get a 2021 season. There is a book on the WWI Spanish flu which I read a few years ago. More US solders were killed by the flu than by the German Army. Maybe modern medicine and methods can cut the deaths, but until herd immunity kicks in, everybody is at risk. HERD immunity means more than say 85% of people have had it, and can't transmit it. What is going on is much worse than the public in general perceives. 1
HappyDays Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 17 minutes ago, BUFFALOBART said: Allegedly this virus will decline during the summer months, This isn't a very strong theory at the moment, unfortunately. There's no evidence that coronavirus is killed by heat or humidity. Until a vaccine is invented, self-quarantine is the only way we can slow it down. 4 1 1
jrober38 Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, mjt328 said: I've been reading/listening to dozens of doctors and health experts. Nobody knows for sure how long this will last, because they are going by only 2-3 months worth of data on a virus that is totally new to the world. And unfortunately, the country that has been going through this the longest (China) was very secretive at first - so it's unclear whether the data they are putting out is reliable. The next few weeks will hopefully tell us a lot. - If they can be believed, China has supposedly hit the downside of this, and the country is gradually returning to work. The world will be watching to see if they get a second-wave once their citizens leave quarantine and start getting around each other again. - How well will the U.S. efforts to slow down infections work? And how much progress can we make in improving the country's medical capacity in that amount of time? The unique thing about this virus, is that it doesn't actually have an extremely high death rate... IF the sick can get proper hospital care. The problem (as can be seen in Italy) is that it's extremely contagious, and if thousands get sick at the same time, the hospitals simply can't handle everyone. - Is this strand of the virus seasonal? If it is, the spring and summer months should give us additional time to prepare for another outbreak next year. - At best, a vaccine is several months away. But there other drugs already being tested which hopefully can treat the symptoms and decrease the number of serious cases requiring hospitalization. Like with other viruses, there is also an expectation that humans will gradually develop a level of herd immunity. The recovery rate of young/healthy people who get this is very high. The key is all about NOT overloading the current medical system. Hospitals, beds, doctors, ventilators, etc. Even if society doesn't get back 100% to normal immediately in the next few weeks, it's very possible that we can get there gradually. For instance, let the recovered/young/healthy get back to work, while continuing to have strict quarantine rules and social distancing for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Yes, there are lots of doomsday predictions out there. But there are also glimpses of hope. I find it easier to take this day-by-day, and hope that everything turns out for the best, rather than fearing the worst. Live sporting events are the polar opposite of social distancing. It's hard to imagine there being any live sports until a vaccine is found given how contagious this is.
Augie Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 Ask me in a month or so. I don’t see any way to even venture a guess right now. I will say, this is probably the absolute worst season to put in jeopardy over the last quarter of a century. Having said that, we have much bigger problems to face. 8
HappyDays Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, jrober38 said: Live sporting events are the polar opposite of social distancing. It's hard to imagine there being any live sports until a vaccine is found given how contagious this is. It is possible that by September we will have it under control enough to at least have NFL games without any fans in the stadium. Less than ideal to say the least, but if the players keep themselves quarantined for the season it's a possible solution that wouldn't require the entire season being cancelled. Even if training camp does happen it will be completely closed to the public and probably the media too. Edited March 23, 2020 by HappyDays 2
qwksilver Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 I think it causes issue with the offseason. Hopefully not the season. If we are still trying to get this under wraps come September. Life as we know it will be forever changed. 3
mjt328 Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 1 minute ago, bigK14094 said: The 1918 Pandemic had three waves over 18 months.......likely to be the case today as well. Might get a 2021 season. There is a book on the WWI Spanish flu which I read a few years ago. More US solders were killed by the flu than by the German Army. Maybe modern medicine and methods can cut the deaths, but until herd immunity kicks in, everybody is at risk. HERD immunity means more than say 85% of people have had it, and can't transmit it. What is going on is much worse than the public in general perceives. One advantage we have over the Spanish Flu, is that younger/healthy people do have an extremely high recovery rate with this virus. This thing is almost exclusively going after the elderly, and those over 60-65 with pre-existing conditions. The 1918 epidemic killed people of all ages, including children and young adults (as you pointed out). This should make it easier/quicker for humans to develop herd immunity. We can feel safer about sending younger/healthy people out into the world, without being afraid they will get it and start dropping dead everywhere. 1
Not at the table Karlos Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, Augie said: Ask me in a month or so. I don’t see any way to even venture a guess right now. I will say, this is probably the absolute worst season to put in jeopardy over the last quarter of a century. Having said that, we have much bigger problems to face. Bills finally are good and the world is ending. 1 1
davefan66 Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 No question it will Impact the season. Won’t have the off-season activities we normally do. Even if the season were to start in time, there will be an impact. I could see the season being canceled, but most likely delayed or shortened. Will it be without fans in the stands? Would be awful, but whatever it takes to slow, or hopefully contain this virus.
Happy Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 I would guess the virus will be under control by early summer. If it last until September, the NFL season will be the least of the nation's worries. 2
mjt328 Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, jrober38 said: Live sporting events are the polar opposite of social distancing. It's hard to imagine there being any live sports until a vaccine is found given how contagious this is. Like I said, there are scenarios that could drastically improve our situation over the next few months. - If doctors can discover treatment drugs that work - If the virus turns out to be seasonal - If we succeed in drastically increasing the medical capacity There are scientists and medical experts on both sides of the fence, and all admit they cannot be sure which way this ultimately goes. My attitude is to hope and pray for the best.
Augie Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 10 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said: Bills finally are good and the world is ending. Foxboro has frozen over..... 1 4
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