Josh Allen deep ball misconception

[JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS]

Allen can throw scary long passes.  Diggs can catch inaccurate passes, in coverage.

 

if Diggs and Allen have chemistry, you are going to see a fusillade of deep balls caught every game.  

 

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

He hasn't gotten worse statistically.  (passes on the right side skewed by that being his preferred location to throw it away deep)

2019:                                                                                                         2018:

That's outstanding, Hap.   It demonstrates a few things.  

 

One is that his overall effectiveness went up nicely.   Second that his deep ball effectiveness went up too.   

 

The note about preferred location and throwaways in 2018 is interesting.   It means in 2019 he was generally throwing the ball way less than his rookie year.   That means he was finding guys to throw to.   

 

It's a picture of a guy who's improving all over the field.   

1 minute ago, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said:

Allen can throw scary long passes.  Diggs can catch inaccurate passes, in coverage.

 

if Diggs and Allen have chemistry, you are going to see a fusillade of deep balls caught every game.  

 

Maybe not caught, but attempted.  

 

I think you're correct about that.   They're going to be telling Allen, if it's a 50-50 ball to Diggs, we'll take that bet.   50-50 to anyone else, go someplace else, even a throw away.  

[stinky finger]

4 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

How do we know it was hesitation to put the ball where the WR can make a play and not just a terrible over/under throw?... sorry, I have to assume the latter.

 

Predictable, if nothing else. 

[John from Riverside]

So my question is what can we do to help him out while he overthrows these balls

 

is it a wingspan issue

a speed issue

[Bangarang]

48 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

He hasn't gotten worse statistically.  (passes on the right side skewed by that being his preferred location to throw it away deep)

2019:                                                                                                         2018:

Interesting. I went by the below links.

2018:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-19-deep-ball-project

 

2019: https://www.google.com/amp/s/brickwallblitz.com/2020/02/21/the-2019-20-deep-ball-project-part-1-3/amp/

[Shaw66]

17 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Interesting. I went by the below links.

2018:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-19-deep-ball-project

 

2019: https://www.google.com/amp/s/brickwallblitz.com/2020/02/21/the-2019-20-deep-ball-project-part-1-3/amp/

So what does it mean, that two different data crunchers come up with different answers?

 

I think it means it's all more subjective than can be reduced to data in a very meaningful way.   I mean, the data can tell us, relative to the other QBs in the league, how productive he is.   But the data can't even tell us whether he progressed or regressed in 2019.   We're at the limits of the usefulness of the data.   At least at the level of the data that's available to us.   I suspect the Bills have some analytics on Josh that would be cool to see but that is closely guarded.  They know exactly how well Josh is doing and what he has to do to become more productive.  

[longtimebillsfan]

Thanks DJB.  This took a great deal of time and effort on your part.

 

Let's hope all the work Josh is putting in with QB whisperer Jordan Palmer pays off.  In an article I read shortly after the Super Bowl, Palmer explained his technique for helping Josh become more accurate in his deep throws.  After reading that article, I was optimistic that Josh will be more successful going down field in 2020.

 

If Josh can improve this part of his game, I believe it will open up throws underneath as well. (below is a link to one of the articles from Jordan Palmer on Allen.)

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2020/02/27/buffalo-bills-josh-allem-ahead-schedule-jordan-palmer/

Edited March 22, 2020 by longtimebillsfan
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[mjt328]

Here is the way I see it...

 

Following Josh Allen's rookie season, the biggest gripe among every critic was that:

a)  He missed too many SHORT throws

b)  He was mostly a scrambler, and didn't do enough with his arm

 

So in the offseason, Allen worked diligently on fixing the weakest parts of his game.  Immediately (even during Preseason and Week 1), you could already see the vast improvement in Allen's accuracy and short passing game.  You could  also see the focus Allen made to become a pocket passer, and to not take off running at every sign of pressure.  But over the course of the first 4-5 games, a new problem emerged:

a)  He was turning the ball over too much

 

So the coaches clamped down, and Allen started being more careful with the ball.  Over the final 9-10 games, Allen had less turnovers than almost every other QB in the NFL.  So the narrative once again switched, and suddenly Bills fans became extremely concerned with:

a)  Inaccuracy on his DEEP ball 

 

Just for arguments sake, I'll ignore the fact that Allen started hitting some nice deep passes during the final quarter of the season (which he did).  The two against the Patriots were among his best throws all year.  My confidence in Allen comes from the inescapable FACT that every time he has started getting a reputation for a bad habit/trait, he has gotten a laser focus on getting better in that area.  And each time, it has worked.  I fully expect Allen to put an emphasis on his deep ball this offseason, along with his penchant for fumbles while scrambling.  

 

[Hebert19]

5 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

This....

 

Dude couldn't hit the broadside of a barn with his deep throws.

After new england game he erred on being long on the deep throws rather than put them up for grabs.  That's all it was in my opinion.  He was gunshy

[Shaw66]

49 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

Here is the way I see it...

 

Following Josh Allen's rookie season, the biggest gripe among every critic was that:

a)  He missed too many SHORT throws

b)  He was mostly a scrambler, and didn't do enough with his arm

 

So in the offseason, Allen worked diligently on fixing the weakest parts of his game.  Immediately (even during Preseason and Week 1), you could already see the vast improvement in Allen's accuracy and short passing game.  You could  also see the focus Allen made to become a pocket passer, and to not take off running at every sign of pressure.  But over the course of the first 4-5 games, a new problem emerged:

a)  He was turning the ball over too much

 

So the coaches clamped down, and Allen started being more careful with the ball.  Over the final 9-10 games, Allen had less turnovers than almost every other QB in the NFL.  So the narrative once again switched, and suddenly Bills fans became extremely concerned with:

a)  Inaccuracy on his DEEP ball 

 

Just for arguments sake, I'll ignore the fact that Allen started hitting some nice deep passes during the final quarter of the season (which he did).  The two against the Patriots were among his best throws all year.  My confidence in Allen comes from the inescapable FACT that every time he has started getting a reputation for a bad habit/trait, he has gotten a laser focus on getting better in that area.  And each time, it has worked.  I fully expect Allen to put an emphasis on his deep ball this offseason, along with his penchant for fumbles while scrambling.  

 

All pretty subjective stuff, but not a bad narrative of what's happened.   

 

All we can do is wait and see.   He needs at least another year of solid growth overall.   He's gotta start being at least a threat to crack the top 10 passer ratings.    He maybe won't get there this year, but he needs solid improvement again.   Some of that growth has to be in the deep ball category, because to be a good offense, it's almost essential that you're a deep threat.   You need that explosive aspect to the offense.  Plus, a lot of other stats start moving up if you get better at the deep ball.   Yards per attempt goes up, TDs probably goes up, completion percentage goes up.   

 

The criticism of his deep ball efficiency is justified.   As you point out, there are plenty of reasons to expect him to improve in that area.  

[Troll Toll]

The deep ball thing is overblown at this point. Some marginal stat improvements and he can boast the numbers of a long term starter:

 

QB rating >= 90 (He was 85 last year)

250ypg passing (He was 193 last year)

60% CMP (He was 58.8 last year)

Basically, if he can build on last year by replacing 1 3&out per game with a successful drive he will likely prove to be the long term answer. He was on the cusp of clearly being the franchise guy last year. He was just short of beating NE twice and winning a playoff game.

[Bangarang]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

So what does it mean, that two different data crunchers come up with different answers?

 

I think it means it's all more subjective than can be reduced to data in a very meaningful way.   I mean, the data can tell us, relative to the other QBs in the league, how productive he is.   But the data can't even tell us whether he progressed or regressed in 2019.   We're at the limits of the usefulness of the data.   At least at the level of the data that's available to us.   I suspect the Bills have some analytics on Josh that would be cool to see but that is closely guarded.  They know exactly how well Josh is doing and what he has to do to become more productive.  

Hap’s chart strictly shows passer rating to different parts of the field. The links I gave go into the numbers a bit more.

[mjt328]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

All pretty subjective stuff, but not a bad narrative of what's happened.   

 

All we can do is wait and see.   He needs at least another year of solid growth overall.   He's gotta start being at least a threat to crack the top 10 passer ratings.    He maybe won't get there this year, but he needs solid improvement again.   Some of that growth has to be in the deep ball category, because to be a good offense, it's almost essential that you're a deep threat.   You need that explosive aspect to the offense.  Plus, a lot of other stats start moving up if you get better at the deep ball.   Yards per attempt goes up, TDs probably goes up, completion percentage goes up.   

 

The criticism of his deep ball efficiency is justified.   As you point out, there are plenty of reasons to expect him to improve in that area.  

 

Not completely subjective.  You can use stats to show the following:

 

- Allen improved in completion percentage and short-game accuracy from 2018 to 2019

- Allen ran less and stayed in the pocket more from 2018 to 2019

- Allen had less turnovers over the last 11 games than during his first 5

- Allen hit on a higher percentage of deep throws in his last 4 games, than during the first 12 games

 

It's subjective to say this guarantees improvement next year, but it should give us some optimism.

 

[Shaw66]

24 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Not completely subjective.  You can use stats to show the following:

 

- Allen improved in completion percentage and short-game accuracy from 2018 to 2019

- Allen ran less and stayed in the pocket more from 2018 to 2019

- Allen had less turnovers over the last 11 games than during his first 5

- Allen hit on a higher percentage of deep throws in his last 4 games, than during the first 12 games

 

It's subjective to say this guarantees improvement next year, but it should give us some optimism.

 

I was agreeing with you, and I agree with this, to.  

 

My point was a little different.   My point was that, just as you say, he has to improve statistically in a variety of ways, and the data of what's past don't really tell us exactly what he has to do.   If he significantly improves his deep ball accuracy, it will have an impact on all of the data your citing.   Or, he could stay the same on the long ball, not improve at all, and still improve in the categories you cite.   

 

I agree that he has to get better, and I agree that the next step, as you describe it, is a fair estimate of what he needs to do.  Nice if he did more, but what you describe is good solid growth.  I just think there are a variety of ways he could do it.  I also agree that that Allen has a history of improving at parts of his game that have been criticized, so the long ball certainly seems to be an area where we could expect improvement.   If he improves in that category, it will carry him most of the way to your targets for him.  

 

I continue

[Chandler#81]

Deep Ball Misconception??

 

Sounds like an episode title for the Big Bang Theory.

[C.Biscuit97]

https://mobile.twitter.com/QBDataMine/status/1239969831371202567

[BigBillsFan]

18 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/QBDataMine/status/1239969831371202567

 

Those were all catchable balls or drops. We just need an 8'4" burner on the outside with 4.2 speed.

[Cripple Creek]

On 3/22/2020 at 10:28 AM, DJB said:

 

What's the misconception?