Josh Allen deep ball misconception

[DJB]

I went back and reviewed all of Allen's deep ball passes since his rookie year. 

 

I'll preface by saying I dont have a ton of clips but I tried my best to illustrate a few things.  

 

So firstly Allen was was much more aggressive year one with the deep ball. One positive was that he would put it in a spot where the WR could usually make a play on it. The bad part is that for some reason he was throwing into double coverage way too much and got picked a bunch.

 

 

(Now that clip is from week 4 of 2019 but used just to illustrate type of pick he was throwing deep)

 

I vividly remember Daboll going off on him on the sidelines a couple times after throwing deep picks. It may have been week week 14 in 2018 against the Jets at home. 

 

After that episode with Daboll, Allen then became a little gun shy about throwing the deep ball. He spoke often about protecting the ball. 

 

Now this past year when Allen did throw the deep ball it was usually in a one on one coverage.

 

However he wasn't throwing the ball to the WR he usually threw it to a spot just beyond the WR but far away from the defender. Each one of his deep throws the defender was far enough away that he didnt even get a hand on it or come close. I think Allen was really worried about getting picked and was throwing it conservatively. 

 

That tells me that Allen at least knows not to throw into double coverage, and if he can regain his aggressiveness and worry less about getting picked off by putting it closer to his WR hes going to connect on his deep ball far more often.

 

Allen did show more confidence and threw the deep much better down the stretch last year. 

 

Take a look at this clip from NE week 16 2019

 

 

 

First clip is a 25 yard rope to Beasley right at the sideline over a defender. That's a special throw. 

 

The 2nd is to Dawson Knox and it's a really pretty one. Perfect placement over Knox shoulder away from the defender and it's on the money. 

 

The 3rd one is a single high safety look. John Brown should have been double covered there but the DB for some reason trails away leading the safety one on one. Hard to know if Allen sees the defender trail away but regardless it's a perfect throw with defenders in his face. 

 

(I really wish I had some clips of some deep ball misses that Allen threw to really illustrate my point about him being gun shy or afraid to throw an INT. It would have really helped.)

 

I think there is a misconception on Allen being a poor deep ball guy. I think hes a terrific intermediate thrower (as illustrated by the Beasley catch). I think Allen in the first half of this year based on the games I watched was really worried about turning the ball over. In the back half his confidence grew and he wasn't throwing deep balls into double coverage as much and was also giving his WR a chance to make a play on the ball. 

 

We can assume that Allen's ability to read coverages, combined with growth on knowing when and when to not throw it deep, along with the confidence to put the ball where the WR can make a play will equal greater deep ball completions. The Patriots game perfectly illustrated that. 

 

Cheers guys

[Green Lightning]

We'll see. He was long so many times and hesitant often and left a lot of plays on the field. The good news is is he usually works through and solves his problems. That's what I'm hoping he does this offseason. If he can consistently hit the long ball this offense is going do a lot of damage!

[RoyBatty is alive]

Good job appreciate all the work. I dont think there is any doubt that Allen CAN make pretty much any throw (often shaky ok the short "easy" ones) in the NFL with the arm he has and that is what you demonstrate here.  My concern is how consistent is Allen?  He has beautiful throws mixed in with inaccurate throws and some real hero ball head scratching decisions.  You can make any NFL qb look like an All Pro with selected highlights.  We could also make Allen look real bad with "lowlight" reel.

 

Now of course we dont always know if Allen has a a terrible throw or the receiver ran the wrong route.  We also have questionable WRs talent, his first year was a joke of a receiving corps but it was materially upgraded this year.  Still our playoff loss could have been a win had  Duke Williams been able to hold onto a TD or John Brown better footwork on the sideline, neither was easy but every game in the NFL good WRs make those catches.

 

So for me, in his third season, same system same coaches, J Allen has to continue to improve.  He now has a good O Line and now a true legit #1 WR in Diggs.  For me Allen HAS to make big strides this year and that starts with consistency and would be nice to get over 60% of his passes completed.

Edited March 22, 2020 by RoyBatty is alive

[Bangarang]

It’s not a misconception, it’s a fact. He was horrible throwing the ball deep last year. 
 

If you also look at his rookie year he was in the bottom 3rd of the league in completing passes deep.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-19-deep-ball-project

 

 

Edited March 22, 2020 by Bangarang

[BigBillsFan]

The only misconception is that he can throw the deep ball based on 6-8 passes over 2 years.

[Mat68]

Allens biggest issue coming out of college and year 1 was the intermidiate passing game.  Last year he was top 5 in the NFL in that category.  Ironcilly, PFF pointed to his intermediate game his rookie as a reason he wouldnt become a legitament starter.  Deep accuracy is a category where year over year different Qbs lead the league and doesnt corelate year over year.  

 

This is my main gripe last year with PFF.  Allen corrected and spent time improving on the single largest area of NFL success at Qb.  Instead all year they harped  on his deep accuracy.  Which his rookie year when he was tops in the league in air yards they dismissed as a category that does not corelate to future success.  

 

Allen showed his rookie year he has the arm and accuracy to hit the deep throws.  Adding Diggs will open things up for Brown and the rest of the offense.  I suspect Allen improves on deep ball and the offense becomes more explosive.

Edited March 22, 2020 by Mat68

[DJB]

20 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

It’s not a misconception, it’s a fact. He was horrible throwing the ball deep last year. 
 

If you also look at his rookie year he was in the bottom 3rd of the league in completing passes deep.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-19-deep-ball-project

 

 

 

His stats say he was poor I agree. But what I'm trying to say is he's improving and I showed some reasons as to why he's been poor .  

 

Year 1 - Too many  INT into double coverage  

Year 2 - Less into double coverage but hesitant sometimes to put the ball where the WR can make a play .  

 

Year 3? 

[Bangarang]

3 minutes ago, DJB said:

 

His stats say he was poor I agree. But what I'm trying to say is he's improving and I showed some reasons as to why he's been poor .  

 

Year 1 - Too many  INT into double coverage  

Year 2 - Less into double coverage but hesitant sometimes to put the ball where the WR can make a play .  

 

Year 3? 

How can he be improving if statistically he’s gotten worse?

Edited March 22, 2020 by Bangarang

[RoyBatty is alive]

8 minutes ago, DJB said:

 

His stats say he was poor I agree. But what I'm trying to say is he's improving and I showed some reasons as to why he's been poor .  

 

Year 1 - Too many  INT into double coverage  

Year 2 - Less into double coverage but hesitant sometimes to put the ball where the WR can make a play .  

 

Year 3? 

 

Yep, that is where I am this is a big year for him.  No more excuses. We now have a legit #1 WR good line and good RB.

[DJB]

19 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

How do we know it was hesitation to put the ball where the WR can make a play and not just a terrible over/under throw?... sorry, I have to assume the latter.

 

That's fair. And I was connecting the dots of Daboll ripping  him and Allen throwing to a 'safe spot'

 

 

Again  I wish I had the clips but from watching his deep balls that missed they  were always on the WR side and not on the DB side which to me says he's putting it where he wants it.

 

Now if the ball was all over the place I'd be more concerned but his misses were  90% to the side of the WR away from the DB

18 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

How can he be improving if statistically he’s gotten worse?

 

I'm going to assume you read the entire first post where I tried to explain his missed deep throws this year.

 

Some of it is again  explained above to Scott. 

 

Again  he's not perfect  and I'm not trying to emphasize  that. What I am is that he's improving and he's not as bad as the numbers indicate  

Edited March 22, 2020 by DJB

[Dan Darragh]

27 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Ironcilly, PFF pointed to his intermediate game his rookie as a reason he wouldnt become a legitament starter.

Provided, of course, he doesn't tear a legitament in his throwing arm.

[Mat68]

5 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

How can he be improving if statistically he’s gotten worse?

Because, the single largest area NFL qbs need to win at is the short to intermediate.  0 to 20 yards is where the NFL passing games win or lose.  Allen went from bottom of the NFL to to top 5 in year 2.  That progression paired with his improved Td to int ratio all shows Allen developing into an above average qb.  

 

Deep throws are low percentage.  Connecting 5 to 6 more a season is the difference from bottom to tops in the league.  Adding Diggs will greatly improve the offense in this area.  Having 2 guys outside who can run past defenders and run full route trees will create more oppurtunites down the feild.

[RoyBatty is alive]

1 minute ago, Mat68 said:

Because, the single largest area NFL qbs need to win at is the short to intermediate.  0 to 20 yards is where the NFL passing games win or lose.  Allen went from bottom of the NFL to to top 5 in year 2.  That progression paired with his improved Td to int ratio all shows Allen developing into an above average qb.  

 

Deep throws are low percentage.  Connecting 5 to 6 more a season is the difference from bottom to tops in the league.  Adding Diggs will greatly improve the offense in this area.  Having 2 guys outside who can run past defenders and run full route trees will create more oppurtunites down the feild.

 

All true but then again deep threat opens up the entire rest of the field.  Allen has pretty much as strong an arm as there is and it would be nice to have a top WR with speed that can get open and let Allen heave it his direction or at least have the constant threat.

[Bangarang]

20 minutes ago, DJB said:

 

That's fair. And I was connecting the dots of Daboll ripping  him and Allen throwing to a 'safe spot'

 

 

Again  I wish I had the clips but from watching his deep balls that missed they  were always on the WR side and not on the DB side which to me says he's putting it where he wants it.

 

Now if the ball was all over the place I'd be more concerned but his misses were  90% to the side of the WR away from the DB

 

I'm going to assume you read the entire first post where I tried to explain his missed deep throws this year.

 

Some of it is again  explained above to Scott. 

 

Again  he's not perfect  and I'm not trying to emphasize  that. What I am is that he's improving and he's not as bad as the numbers indicate  

You said his deep ball is improving. It’s not and it’s actually gotten worse. Facts don’t care about your feelings.

19 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Because, the single largest area NFL qbs need to win at is the short to intermediate.  0 to 20 yards is where the NFL passing games win or lose.  Allen went from bottom of the NFL to to top 5 in year 2.  That progression paired with his improved Td to int ratio all shows Allen developing into an above average qb. 
 

 

Do you understand that this thread is about Allen’s deep ball? 
 

Quote

Deep throws are low percentage.  Connecting 5 to 6 more a season is the difference from bottom to tops in the league.  Adding Diggs will greatly improve the offense in this area.  Having 2 guys outside who can run past defenders and run full route trees will create more oppurtunites down the feild.

The question isn’t whether the opportunities to throw deep will be there, it’s whether Allen can take advantage of them and actually complete those passes. So far he’s proven to be a poor deep ball thrower and it’s clearly a problem.

Edited March 22, 2020 by Bangarang

[Mat68]

3 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Allen's lack of accuracy on the deep ball cost us the Baltimore game.... there's were several deep balls he missed that would've changed the game and resulted in the Ravens toning down the blitzes that were coming at him all game. 

Browns lack of route running cost them the Baltimore game.  This is a game where not having a #1 wr costed them the game.  Not a single Wr was able to consistently get open.

14 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

All true but then again deep threat opens up the entire rest of the field.  Allen has pretty much as strong an arm as there is and it would be nice to have a top WR with speed that can get open and let Allen heave it his direction or at least have the constant threat.

Down the strech he hit his fair share of deep throws.  Diggs and Brown with Allens arm stength is going to stress defense.  

[Not at the table Karlos]

Didn’t go back and look at all the throws but IIRC He can hit the deep ball if the receiver isn’t running a 9 or go. There’s touch involved in the 9 so the receiver can track it and run under it. 

 

He was just throwing it on a frozen rope to the WR running 9s. It’s difficult to adjust to and needs to be very accurate because he’s throwing at the WRs back. If he’s not very accurate it is uncatchable or lands 10 yards ahead. A little more arc on the ball and he gives the receiver a better chance to make a play.  The horizontal routes he can fire it in there because the WR has his body in better position to make a play. They just need to catch it...

Edited March 22, 2020 by Not at the table Karlos

[Jerome007]

What we can all agree, is that IF Josh becomes even remotely good at deep balls, not even great, he has the arm strength to do so as few ever had. With Diggs and Brown, and the occasional TE deep, wow can could the Bills O stretch the field! With Beasly on shorter routes and Josh's run ability, this offense could be AMAZING just by improving this aspect. And I'm sure he can.

 

BTW, I'm awed at how 3rd & 17 with Allen is like 3rd &  8 for most QBs. And that has been the case already. I wish the damn haters would focus on the good stuff too.

[ganesh]

57 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Allens biggest issue coming out of college and year 1 was the intermidiate passing game.  Last year he was top 5 in the NFL in that category.  Ironcilly, PFF pointed to his intermediate game his rookie as a reason he wouldnt become a legitament starter.  Deep accuracy is a category where year over year different Qbs lead the league and doesnt corelate year over year.  

 

This is my main gripe last year with PFF.  Allen corrected and spent time improving on the single largest area of NFL success at Qb.  Instead all year they harped  on his deep accuracy.  Which his rookie year when he was tops in the league in air yards they dismissed as a category that does not corelate to future success.  

 

Allen showed his rookie year he has the arm and accuracy to hit the deep throws.  Adding Diggs will open things up for Brown and the rest of the offense.  I suspect Allen improves on deep ball and the offense becomes more explosive.

and if Knox stops dropping balls, we are going to have one heck of an offense

[DJB]

22 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

You said his deep ball is improving. It’s not and it’s actually gotten worse. Facts don’t care about your feelings.

 

Do you understand that this thread is about Allen’s deep ball? 
 

The question isn’t whether the opportunities to throw deep will be there, it’s whether Allen can take advantage of them and actually complete those passes. So far he’s proven to be a poor deep ball thrower and it’s clearly a problem.

 

The deep ball stats aren't always black and white .  Watching the film to see why he misses is the grey. 

 

If stats were everything  then you could argue Odell is a poor WR. There's more to a player then just stat watching . 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Good job appreciate all the work. I dont think there is any doubt that Allen CAN make pretty much any throw (often shaky ok the short "easy" ones) in the NFL with the arm he has and that is what you demonstrate here.  My concern is how consistent is Allen?  He has beautiful throws mixed in with inaccurate throws and some real hero ball head scratching decisions.  You can make any NFL qb look like an All Pro with selected highlights.  We could also make Allen look real bad with "lowlight" reel.

 

Now of course we dont always know if Allen has a a terrible throw or the receiver ran the wrong route.  We also have questionable WRs talent, his first year was a joke of a receiving corps but it was materially upgraded this year.  Still our playoff loss could have been a win had  Duke Williams been able to hold onto a TD or John Brown better footwork on the sideline, neither was easy but every game in the NFL good WRs make those catches.

 

So for me, in his third season, same system same coaches, J Allen has to continue to improve.  He now has a good O Line and now a true legit #1 WR in Diggs.  For me Allen HAS to make big strides this year and that starts with consistency and would be nice to get over 60% of his passes completed.

This post makes good points. 

 

I agree with those who say his stats throwing deep are bad, but it's obvious he can make all the throws.    

 

His stats are bad for multiple reasons.   One is that he threw deep out of desperation more often than we'd like, like that horrible duck he threw to DiMarco last season.   He'd get rushed, scramble, fail to find a better option (which may or may not have been there) and then he'd unload the ball deep.   Not necessarily a bad decision, but certainly bad for the stats.   Another is that doesn't always get enough air under the ball.  He has to learn that.   Another is that he needs guys open more often.  Diggs should help that.   This will be the first season that Allen will be on the field with two legitimate deep threats.  

 

So as you say, he has to continue to improve.   He needs some better line play, but I think primarily he needs to to be better at pre-snap and post-snap recognition.   When Allen understands what he's looking at, when the play is working the way it's supposed to, he throws the ball well, both short and deep.   When he doesn't understand completely, he tends to hesitate, to fail to identify the opportunities, and that makes him throw late.   When he's late, he's in a hurry, and when he's in a hurry his accuracy declines.    

 

He needs to see and understand.  If he does that, he'll be fine.   If he doesn't, he'll never be much better than we saw last season.