Ebron to the Steelers

[Doc]

58 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

lol doc, you were the one who decided that it would be persuasive to compare Knox's 50 targets over 15 games to Ebrons 52 over 11.

 

Brissett had "little else"?  Jack Doyle had more targets (and catches and yards and TDs) than Knox.  Zach Pascal had more targets (and catches and yards and TDs) than Knox.  The Colts backup RB had more targets and catches than Knox.  What's that you're saying?

 

And Allen "had Brown and Beasley",. so he didn't need to throw to Knox?  The Brown/Beaslkey/(and Knox) combo was so underwhelming that the Bills just spent 48 million and multiple draft picks including next month's 1st round so they would NOT have to roll out Brown/Beasley/Knox.

 

It is persuasive because players can't catch passes that aren't thrown their way, for whatever reason (but it's funny to hear you think you can read Josh's mind).  It's also shows that Ebron is as unreliable as you claim Knox is, yet you trumpet Ebron. Why add a(nother) guy like that?  Because of his 1 outlier season in a 6-year career marked by unreliability, hence the reason he's going onto his 3rd team?

 

But that's how it goes with you.  You find some silly reason to dislike a guy ("I had as many TD's in college as Knox") and then he's on WEO's ***** list.  You want to compare Knox's rookie season to your boy Hockenson's?

 

And you unwittingly made my point about the Colts having little else.  Those scrubs got more targets because someone had to catch those passes with little other talent than Hilton, who missed 6 games and parts of others.

 

And the Bills traded for Diggs because they needed another starting WR, and had a chance to add a top one.  What that has to do with the TE situation is anyone's guess since no team is making WR decisions based on their TE situation.

 

Edited March 21, 2020 by Doc

[Mr. WEO]

34 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

It is persuasive because players can't catch passes that aren't thrown their way, for whatever reason (but it's funny to hear you think you can read Josh's mind).  It's also shows that Ebron is as unreliable as you claim Knox is, yet you trumpet Ebron. Why add a(nother) guy like that?  Because of his 1 outlier season in a 6-year career marked by unreliability, hence the reason he's going onto his 3rd team?

 

But that's how it goes with you.  You find some silly reason to dislike a guy ("I had as many TD's in college as Knox") and then he's on WEO's ***** list.  You want to compare Knox's rookie season to your boy Hockenson's?

 

And you unwittingly made my point about the Colts having little else.  Those scrubs got more targets because someone had to catch those passes with little other talent than Hilton, who missed 6 games and parts of others.

 

And the Bills traded for Diggs because they needed another starting WR, and had a chance to add a top one.  What that has to do with the TE situation is anyone's guess since no team is making WR decisions based on their TE situation.

 

 

 

Unreliable career?  

 

 

The bolded sentence made no sense at all.  First you claimed that Brissett "only" had Hilton, now you say he didn't only have Hilton who missed 6 games (in fact).  He had a bunch of guys ("scrubs"). who he threw the ball to (and they caught lots of them).  I don't know if Knox is going to be an unreliable TE, but he dropped a lot of his targets and he didn't have a lot of targets for a healthy Offense's 3rd receiving option.  You haven't even ventured why Daboll/Allen wouldn't throw the ball Knox's way.  Tell us your theory. 

 

Allen had healthy reliving corps and he still chose to target Knox less than Brissett did the scrub RB.  

 

I don't dislike Knox, but I thought bringing in Ebron was a very simple decision. for a team STARVING for an upgrade at receivers in general and TE in particular.  Just like bringing in a guy like Diggs had to happen because Brown and Beasley really aren't a dangerous combo.  

 

 

 

[Geo in Pa]

19 hours ago, JR in Pittsburgh said:

i agree. I don’t understand how they’ve been able to do it. If you read articles going back to like 2010, they do this almost every year. But you are right— it seems like it is at a breaking point. When Ben R retires, they can’t push his salary off anymore and will have to pay the piper. 

This, the Steelers are in big trouble in the next few years. 

[Doc]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

Unreliable career?  

 

 

The bolded sentence made no sense at all.  First you claimed that Brissett "only" had Hilton, now you say he didn't only have Hilton who missed 6 games (in fact).  He had a bunch of guys ("scrubs"). who he threw the ball to (and they caught lots of them).  I don't know if Knox is going to be an unreliable TE, but he dropped a lot of his targets and he didn't have a lot of targets for a healthy Offense's 3rd receiving option.  You haven't even ventured why Daboll/Allen wouldn't throw the ball Knox's way.  Tell us your theory. 

 

Allen had healthy reliving corps and he still chose to target Knox less than Brissett did the scrub RB.  

 

I don't dislike Knox, but I thought bringing in Ebron was a very simple decision. for a team STARVING for an upgrade at receivers in general and TE in particular.  Just like bringing in a guy like Diggs had to happen because Brown and Beasley really aren't a dangerous combo. 

 

Just his last 2 seasons show him at a drop rate of 9%.  You said Knox is unreliable at 12%.  Therefore...

 

I said the Colts don't have much talent to draw most of the targets away from their TE like the Bills did with Brown and Beasley, outside of Hilton who missed over 1/3 of the season.  Ebron was the 2nd most accomplished receiver on that team, which isn't saying much, and made him get more targets.

 

With the Bills having Kroft, Knox and Sweeney, they're not going to add another TE, much less a guy like Ebron (I wonder how interested they even were in Hooper?).  I think they'd want to see how they all do in their 2nd seasons with the team, first.

[Mr. WEO]

8 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Just his last 2 seasons show him at a drop rate of 9%.  You said Knox is unreliable at 12%.  Therefore...

 

I said the Colts don't have much talent to draw most of the targets away from their TE like the Bills did with Brown and Beasley, outside of Hilton who missed over 1/3 of the season.  Ebron was the 2nd most accomplished receiver on that team, which isn't saying much, and made him get more targets.

 

With the Bills having Kroft, Knox and Sweeney, they're not going to add another TE, much less a guy like Ebron (I wonder how interested they even were in Hooper?).  I think they'd want to see how they all do in their 2nd seasons with the team, first.

Describe his “unreliable” career.  It extends beyond the past few 2 years.

And if ANY Bills TE had 66 catches, 750 yards and 13 TDs against 9 drops,  you wouldn’t be focusing on the drops...because that would be silly...,

[Doc]

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Describe his “unreliable” career.  It extends beyond the past few 2 years.

And if ANY Bills TE had 66 catches, 750 yards and 13 TDs against 9 drops,  you wouldn’t be focusing on the drops...because that would be silly...,

 

Which is why I asked you if Knox had been targeted 2.2 more times last year and had 62 catches for 854 yards and 4 TDs (let's face it, Ebrons 13 TD's were an aberration and he'll never come close to that number in a season ever again), would you focus on his 13 drops? 

[Mr. WEO]

13 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Which is why I asked you if Knox had been targeted 2.2 more times last year and had 62 catches for 854 yards and 4 TDs (let's face it, Ebrons 13 TD's were an aberration and he'll never come close to that number in a season ever again), would you focus on his 13 drops? 

 

 

No.  Because that wouldn't make any sense.

 

But he didn't do any of that. 

 

Ebron did, yet you are focused on the drops in 2 seasons.

[Doc]

4 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

No.  Because that wouldn't make any sense.

 

But he didn't do any of that. 

 

Ebron did, yet you are focused on the drops in 2 seasons.

 

Is anyone else seeing the hypocrisy of this statement?

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

Is anyone else seeing the hypocrisy of this statement?

no

 

you keep setting up arguments, watch them sink, run from them, then circle back. 
 

you asked a question: essentially if Knox had an outstanding rookie season would I or anyone be focused on the drops.  Obviously not.  
 

But he didn’t.   He had a couple dozen catches to a dozen drops.  
 

you wrote off Ebtons career as unreliable citing only the last 2 seasons drop numbers. You said his numbers last year were only better than Knox’s because Brissett had only Hilton to throw to.  That was clearly incorrect so you countered with Hilton was injured.  
 

Round and round you go.  Ending up saying things like if Knox had a lot more targets/catches/yards/TDs...would you complain about drops.  
 

Why stop there? Why not jump right to: “if Knox won Offensive  Rookie the Year, League MVP and Super Bowl ,  would you complain about his drops?”

 

i mean....why not ask that,  it’s equally at odds with Knoxs actual season as the one you recalculated and extrapolated for you question?  

[3rdand12]

On 3/20/2020 at 2:58 PM, MrEpsYtown said:

I hear that. I just think Knox is super raw as a receiver and blocker, but he definitely has upside. He needs a strong offseason (current status in the world isn’t helping) but I think his drops were mostly a kid trying to do too much and being amped up. He tried to turn and run with the ball way too often. 

 

Knox was a high school quarterback who was hurt his senior year and sat out. Then walked on at Ole Miss, redshirted and only played in 18 college games. He is a true work in progress. He needs to take a big step up and find consistency, but I do think he is already better than a good number of tight ends in the league. 

Thanks

 Folks need to step back on Dawson Knox.

and you make salient points as to why.
I fully believe in him progressing nicely. and i also feel he and Josh are going to get on the same page this year.

 

But heck , i like Sweeney : )

 

Ebron is shot. Mark my word

[3rdand12]

On 3/21/2020 at 1:50 AM, longtimebillsfan said:

I liked him coming out of college.  

so did whaley i read somewhere. 

[Doc]

8 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

no

 

you keep setting up arguments, watch them sink, run from them, then circle back. 
 

you asked a question: essentially if Knox had an outstanding rookie season would I or anyone be focused on the drops.  Obviously not.  
 

But he didn’t.   He had a couple dozen catches to a dozen drops.  
 

you wrote off Ebtons career as unreliable citing only the last 2 seasons drop numbers. You said his numbers last year were only better than Knox’s because Brissett had only Hilton to throw to.  That was clearly incorrect so you countered with Hilton was injured.  
 

Round and round you go.  Ending up saying things like if Knox had a lot more targets/catches/yards/TDs...would you complain about drops.  
 

Why stop there? Why not jump right to: “if Knox won Offensive  Rookie the Year, League MVP and Super Bowl ,  would you complain about his drops?”

 

i mean....why not ask that,  it’s equally at odds with Knoxs actual season as the one you recalculated and extrapolated for you question?  

 

And yet when I made it simple for you and told you to look at last year's stats and your argument went poof, you started on the "well that was over 15 games versus 11 because Allen didn't trust him" nonsense.  You're running with scissors.

 

Ebron's not a reliable TE and that's why he's on his 3rd team in 6 years and why the Colts didn't retain him for just $6M/year even though they had loads of cap room and Rivers loves his TEs.  Pointing to his career year in 2018, which won't be duplicated again, means little compared to a career marked by mediocrity. 

 

The funniest part of this whole thing is that had Ebron been a Bill, you'd have been calling him a bust after his rookie year (sound familiar?).   How about we give Knox a a few years so that in his 5th season, he can finally break out?

 

[Mr. WEO]

44 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

And yet when I made it simple for you and told you to look at last year's stats and your argument went poof, you started on the "well that was over 15 games versus 11 because Allen didn't trust him" nonsense.  You're running with scissors.

 

Ebron's not a reliable TE and that's why he's on his 3rd team in 6 years and why the Colts didn't retain him for just $6M/year even though they had loads of cap room and Rivers loves his TEs.  Pointing to his career year in 2018, which won't be duplicated again, means little compared to a career marked by mediocrity. 

 

The funniest part of this whole thing is that had Ebron been a Bill, you'd have been calling him a bust after his rookie year (sound familiar?).   How about we give Knox a a few years so that in his 5th season, he can finally break out?

 

You equated the 2 TEs outputs despite one playing 15 games the other playing 11. Zero validity.  What else am I supposed to say? 
 

Then you changed to “Brissett had no one else but Hilton”.  That was a joke (a bunch of guys after Hilton and Ebron had more catches than Knox). 
 

Then you changed to “if Knox had an outstanding year would you focus on drops”. Dumb question.

 

So the you went to the only place left, which is the corner you inevitably paint yourself into: “had (non-Bills player) been one the Bills...”

 

I haven’t said Knox is a bust.  For whatever reason (you’ve offered none), on a team desperate for functional TE play (as, you know, a receiver, not just another Lee Smith), their best prospect played 61% of Offensive snaps, yet only had the ball thrown his way on 50 of 650 plays.

 

What I have said is that bringing a vet like Ebron was a no brainer.  Despite unsubstantiated claims of unreliability, he could have helped Knox no doubt. Who is helping Knox learn now? Smith? Come on.  Kroger? Total bum/bust who is taking the same money as Ebron....for nothing.

[Doc]

4 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

You equated the 2 TEs outputs despite one playing 15 games the other playing 11. Zero validity.  What else am I supposed to say? 
 

Then you changed to “Brissett had no one else but Hilton”.  That was a joke (a bunch of guys after Hilton and Ebron had more catches than Knox). 
 

Then you changed to “if Knox had an outstanding year would you focus on drops”. Dumb question.

 

So the you went to the only place left, which is the corner you inevitably paint yourself into: “had (non-Bills player) been one the Bills...”

 

I haven’t said Knox is a bust.  For whatever reason (you’ve offered none), on a team desperate for functional TE play (as, you know, a receiver, not just another Lee Smith), their best prospect played 61% of Offensive snaps, yet only had the ball thrown his way on 50 of 650 plays.

 

What I have said is that bringing a vet like Ebron was a no brainer.  Despite unsubstantiated claims of unreliability, he could have helped Knox no doubt. Who is helping Knox learn now? Smith? Come on.  Kroger? Total bum/bust who is taking the same money as Ebron....for nothing.

 

The only thing that has no validity is your claim that Josh didn't trust Knox.  I realize that you had to resort to that gem because you couldn't refute the virtually identical stats in the same number of targets last year, especially how Ebron's drop rate makes him as unreliable as Knox. 

 

What you're talking about is targets/game which has numerous factors behind it, which I mentioned.  Throw the ball more to Knox or any player, he gets more stats.  Amazing!

 

Again there was no need to add a similar player when the Bills can just develop Knox instead of adding a guy who is becoming a journeyman.  Ebron's worse rookie season and now apparent greatness is a cautionary tale on how players can actually get better.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 3/20/2020 at 1:58 PM, MrEpsYtown said:

I hear that. I just think Knox is super raw as a receiver and blocker, but he definitely has upside. He needs a strong offseason (current status in the world isn’t helping)

 

If he was able to buy himself a Juggs machine with an "Allen" setting, that would surely help.

[Mr. WEO]

10 hours ago, Doc said:

 

The only thing that has no validity is your claim that Josh didn't trust Knox.  I realize that you had to resort to that gem because you couldn't refute the virtually identical stats in the same number of targets last year, especially how Ebron's drop rate makes him as unreliable as Knox. 

 

What you're talking about is targets/game which has numerous factors behind it, which I mentioned.  Throw the ball more to Knox or any player, he gets more stats.  Amazing!

 

 

 

 

 

Ebron had 4.7 targets per game (40% more than Knox). At that rate, he would have had far more production over 15 games than Knox.  That's not obvious to you? 

 

Specifically enumerate the factors that you think the Bills didn't throw more to their primary TE despite few other legitimate receiving options.  His 24% drop rate wasn't one of them, as far as you're concerned.  So exactly what do you think they were? His targets  dropped 27% between his first 6 games and his last 6 games. 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Ebron had 4.7 targets per game (40% more than Knox). At that rate, he would have had far more production over 15 games than Knox.  That's not obvious to you? 

 

Does the fact that on those 4.7 targets per game, Ebron had 2.8 receptions for a 59.6% catch % and a charted drop rate of 9.6% seem obvious to you? 

This is for a 6 yr vet.

 

11 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Specifically enumerate the factors that you think the Bills didn't throw more to their primary TE despite few other legitimate receiving options.  His 24% drop rate wasn't one of them, as far as you're concerned.  So exactly what do you think they were? His targets  dropped 27% between his first 6 games and his last 6 games.

 

Did you look at what % the Bills overall pass attempts may have changed between those same games?

[Mr. WEO]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Does the fact that on those 4.7 targets per game, Ebron had 2.8 receptions for a 59.6% catch % and a charted drop rate of 9.6% seem obvious to you? 

This is for a 6 yr vet.

 

 

Did you look at what % the Bills overall pass attempts may have changed between those same games?

 

We all can see that.   I have listed his stats for last season in several posts. But if you are only going to cite last season and not the one before with Luck, then maybe you conclude that with Josh Allen as his QB, he would do no better than with Brissett.  Ebron got to Indy and had a career year...then Luck retired and Ebron missed 5 games.

 

In the first/last 6 games comp, Brown's targets were 45/44, Beasley's were 46/45..essentially unchanged.  However, McKenzie's targets increased from 8 to 18.