COVID-19 - Facts and Information Only Topic

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Good news front - Vaccine division
Several vaccine candidates are in clinical trials.  Clinical trials have 3 phases: I (safety); II (efficacy - FIP); III (pivotal - larger scale)
Summary from Singapore See Swee Hauk School of Public Health.  Has good background on types of vaccines and plusses/minuses

Edit: here is a good article on the general process of developing a vaccine
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/inside-the-race-to-develop-a-coronavirus-vaccine-covid-19?utm_source=pocket-newtab
 

Phase I clinical trial in UK (Phase I is initial safety): https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/19/uk-drive-develop-coronavirus-vaccine-science

Unclear what it is, I would guess mRNA based which is the hot new kid on the block but unproven immunity.

 

Phase I clinical trial in US underway, 45 participants!  https://www.pcmag.com/news/first-45-us-volunteers-get-experimental-covid-19-vaccine

https://www.ems1.com/coronavirus-covid-19/articles/us-covid-19-vaccine-test-opens-with-1st-doses-FCPlUmQGVmIft6KO/

at Kaiser Permanente Washington Research Institute (KPWHRI).  It's an mRNA based vaccine, again latest and greatest idea - how well how long it will work TBD

 

Overall, 12-18 months to something widely available would be lightening-quick from here - still 2 phases of clinical trials to go then mfr campaign.

 

I am skeptical of claims about cures and vaccines from Israel - they seem to have a Grade A Hype Machine, Cure for Insulin, Cure for Cancer da-da.

This might be legit, but I think he's talking about having a vaccine ready to initiate clinical trials in 90 days, not having something ready to vaccinate the population.  Still, it's an oral vaccine, which would be great for developing countries, and it's technology where they've shown the ability to produce an antibody response:

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101

 

“Let’s call it pure luck,” he said. “We decided to choose coronavirus as a model for our system just as a proof of concept for our technology.”  But after scientists sequenced the DNA of the novel coronavirus causing the current worldwide outbreak, the MIGAL researchers examined it and found that the poultry coronavirus has high genetic similarity to the human one, and that it uses the same infection mechanism, which increases the likelihood of achieving an effective human vaccine in a very short period of time, Katz said. “All we need to do is adjust the system to the new sequence,” he said. “We are in the middle of this process, and hopefully in a few weeks we will have the vaccine in our hands. Yes, in a few weeks, if it all works, we would have a vaccine to prevent coronavirus.”

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by Hapless Bills Fan
Added Guardian article on the vaccine dev. process

[BillsFan4]

I’m not sure if the advise to call 311 applies to anyone outside the NYC area, but the rest of the advise does.

 

 

 

 

[BillsFan4]

Quote from above link:

"Millennials are not invincible. The new data show that up to one-fifth of infected people ages 20-44 have been hospitalized, including 2%-4% who required treatment in an intensive care unit."

 

 

 

 

[ALF]

Medical workers in Wuhan reveal smiles behind their masks after the city closes its last temporary hospital that was panic-built to accommodate overflow coronavirus patients

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-medical-workers-remove-masks-after-last-temporary-hospital-closes-2020-3

 

A sign of hope after all

Edit: keep in mind the timeline here.  The city of Wuhan was shut down on 24 January.  This video is from March 14.  It took 6 weeks from the lockdown of Wuhan, plus a lot of testing and contact tracing as things opened back up.

Edited March 28, 2020 by Hapless Bills Fan
pointing out timeline

[Hapless Bills Fan]

58 minutes ago, BillsFanNC said:

Another resource that may not have been posted here yet is from the National University of Singapore, who have been publishing weekly digest updates on the latest published research.

 

https://sph.nus.edu.sg/covid-19/

 

This is a great resource.  No seriously, it is so great that I'm considering locking this thread and just saying "go there", but I'll read through more carefully before doing so.

It immediately led me here, where they are putting out daily situation reports:
https://blog.nus.edu.sg/nuscider/category/special-reports/

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

A graphical presentation I've been seeking.

 

This is outdated data from mainland China (case count now up to 81,250), but a presentation that makes a point we are now seeing here and in other countries.

Like our current data,  it is skewed by those sick enough to seek medical attention.  China has now instituted case-tracking and widespread testing, but at this point (44,572 cases) most people tested were very ill and had sought medical treatment. 

 

While the case fatality rate is highest among the elderly, the peak case rate of sick people is much younger - 50-59 years old.  25%-30% of those who showed up, significantly ill and seeking treatment, were under 40 years old.

Data from this Ars Technica report.  Ars Technica is more slanted towards computer and computer security issues, but the article seems accurate and well written though a bit outdated.

 

 

 

[BillsFan4]

https://www.sciencealert.com/the-new-coronavirus-isn-t-like-the-flu-but-they-have-one-big-thing-in-common

No, Coronavirus Isn't 'Just Like The Flu'. Here Are The Very Important Differences

 

A few key points:

 

- a Chinese study showed that 41 percent of serious cases occurred among under 50s, compared with 27 percent among over 65s.

"It's true that if you're older you're at greater risk, but serious cases can also happen in relatively young people with no prior conditions," said French deputy health minister Jerome Salomon.

 

“An analysis of 45,000 confirmed cases in China, where the epidemic originated, show that the vast majority of deaths were among the elderly (14.8 percent mortality among over 80s).

But another Chinese study showed that 41 percent of serious cases occurred among under 50s, compared with 27 percent among over 65s.”

 

-Disease experts estimate that each COVID-19 sufferer infects between two to 3 others.

That's a reproduction rate up to twice as high as seasonal flu, which typically infects 1.3 new people for each patient.

 

-mortality rate of 2% would make it 20x more deadly than the flu (0.1%)

 

-“But the true danger of coronavirus is unlikely to be the death toll. Experts say health systems could easily become overwhelmed by the number of cases requiring hospitalisation – and, often ventilation to support breathing.”

 

- Salomon said that humans have lived with influenza for more than 100 years. “We've studied it closely," he said. "This new virus resembles the flu in terms of physical symptoms but there are huge differences."

Number one is the lack of a vaccine against COVID-19, or even any treatment shown to be consistently effective.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

Coronavirus Scam Alert: Watch Out For These Risky COVID-19 Websites And Emails

Thomas BrewsterForbes Staff

Cybersecurity

Associate editor at Forbes, covering cybercrime, privacy, security and surveillance.

 

Cybercriminals and nation state-sponsored spies didn't take long to catch onto the coronavirus panic. Research released Thursday shows crooks and snoops have been rapidly registering vast numbers of potentially-malicious websites and sending out masses of scam emails as they try to make money from the pandemic.

A report from cybersecurity company Recorded Future noted a significant rise in website registrations related to the COVID-19 virus, some of which it believes are being used to either pilfer information from recipients or infect them with malware.

Lindsay Kaye, director of operation outcomes at Recorded Future, specifically called out the following domains as potentially dangerous:

 

• coronavirusstatus[.]space
• coronavirus-map[.]com
• blogcoronacl.canalcero[.]digital
• coronavirus[.]zone
• coronavirus-realtime[.]com
• coronavirus[.]app
• bgvfr.coronavirusaware[.]xyz
• coronavirusaware[.]xyz

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasbrewster/2020/03/12/coronavirus-scam-alert-watch-out-for-these-risky-covid-19-websites-and-emails/#57fd9de91099

Edited March 20, 2020 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 hour ago, Steptide said:

I'm super curious why Italy is getting hit so hard vs other places

COVID-19 Hits Italy: A Test for China Ties

Insights from Giuseppe Gabusi-THE DIPLOMAT

Diplomat author Mercy Kuo regularly engages subject-matter experts, policy practitioners, and strategic thinkers across the globe for their diverse insights into Asia policy.  This conversation with Dr. Giuseppe Gabusi – assistant professor of International Political Economy, Department of Cultures, Politics and Society at University of Torino; head of the “Asia Prospects” program at T.wai, Torino World Affairs Institute; and the editor of RISE, a journal on contemporary Southeast Asia – explores the implications of Italy’s COVID-19 outbreak for relations with China, where the novel coronavirus originated.

 

Describe the scope of COVID-19’s spread in Italy.  

The COVID-19 outbreak in Italy spread mostly from Codogno, a small town in southern Lombardy, at the border with the Emilia-Romagna region, with a second localized outbreak in Veneto. Since Lombardy is one of the wealthiest, most densely populated, and most globalized areas in Europe, the coronavirus circulated very fast and easily, and now all 20 regions in Italy register cases of infected people. It did not help that the Codogno economic district hosts large companies and multinationals – making it a hub for production and international trade. Workers, salesmen, managers, and consultants of all sorts travel daily to their workplace, many of them commuting to nearby cities. International partners visit from abroad. And of course, Milan – the sprawling and thriving capital of Lombardy, and a crucial railway node – is a mere 70 kilometer drive from Codogno. Although “patient zero” has not been found yet, it looks increasingly likely that the virus had been circulating in Europe weeks before “patient one” was identified in late February.

 

https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/covid-19-hits-italy-a-test-for-china-ties/

 

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...just a couple of key cautionary measures I am advising our employees to consider......

 

1. Picking up your daily mail-you may want to consider spraying your daily mail thoroughly  with a disinfectant before bringing it into your household. Apparently, COVID-19 has a strong resiliency to surfaces which Hap can better confirm.

[Hapless sez:  Covid-19 can live on surfaces, but reportedly 3 hrs on paper - and that's the limit at which they found live particles.  So instead of spraying the paper with enough disinfectant to be effective which would probably soak your mail, use a gloved or plastic-bag covered hand to pick up your mail and drop it into a paper bag.  Let it sit for 24 hrs, that's 8 half-lives and should reduce the already small amount left after 3 hrs down to "unlikely to be a problem" levels. I would suggest doing the same with packages you receive - unless they are perishable or urgent, just put them somewhere off to the side and let them sit 24 hrs.]

 

2. Numerous restaurants and bars are offering takeout services. If you do not order on line and handle a menu at the establishment, keep in mind that the menu is a major source of transmittable bacteria in general or more currently COVID-19.

[Most of the establishments around here are putting copies of their menus in their windows for customer viewing.  Could suggest this if feasible]

 

Stay safe and healthy friends.

[T&C]

This would certainly apply to this thread. At the end of the article it describes what various banks are doing for account holders/mortgage holders etc. I'm sure this list will be updated because lets face it, no one (bank) wants to be called the slacker at this point in time.

 

https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/news/2020/03/20/efforts-underway-to-suspend-bill-payments-coronavirus

 

 

[BillsFan4]

 

Edit: This was apparently true in China as well per WHO China Joint report linked above.

I don't think co-morbid conditions can be ruled out (ex: more men than women smoke in both China and Italy or something like that)

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Tracking the spread of the epidemic using genomics (DNA sequences of virus from patients all over the world and looking at mutations).

https://www.fredhutch.org/en/news/center-news/2020/03/tracking-covid-19-trevor-bedford.html

"Viruses mutate very quickly and accumulate changes during the process of transmission from one infected individual to another. The analogy I like to give is the game of telephone. There are errors that occur as it gets passed on and can reveal who spoke to who."

"The seeming sudden appearance of outbreaks across the US are not due to a sudden influx of cases. Instead, transmission chains have been percolating for 4-8 weeks now, and we're just now starting to see exponential growth pick up steam"

 

"Additionally, capacity for testing is key to understanding the epidemic. If people can get results quickly, if they know if they need to isolate, we can reduce transmission. The hope is we could keep people out of the hospital. Widespread screening would have direct impact on transmission. I believe the focus needs to be on testing and case-finding in the U.S. to slow transmission here."

 

 

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

If you hit "play" on the world map above, it shows the spread of the epidemic.

 

 

[BillsFan4]

This is the N.Y. State health website on coronavirus:

 

https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/home

 

It’s updated anytime there is new info or instructions. Here is the latest update:

 

Quote

LAST UPDATED: MARCH 20, 2020 8:30PM

What You Need to Know

• New York State on PAUSE: In New York we know that Policies Assure Uniform Safety for Everyone
• Governor Cuomo will sign an Executive Order mandating that 100% of the workforce must stay home beginning Sunday, March 22 at 8PM, excluding essential services. 
• All non-essential gatherings of individuals of any size for any reason are temporarily banned.
• Enacting Matilda’s Law to protect New Yorkers age 70+ and those with compromised immune systems 
  • Remain indoors
  • Can go outside for solitary exercise
  • Pre-screen all visitors by taking their temperature
  • Wear a mask in the company of others
  • Stay at least 6 feet from others
  • Do not take public transportation unless urgent and absolutely necessary
• All barbershops, hair salons, tattoo or piercing salons, nail salons, hair removal services and related personal care services will be closed to the public effective Saturday, March 21 at 8:00PM.
• New York will implement a 90-day moratorium on evictions for residential and commercial tenants.
• Casinos, gyms, theaters, retail shopping malls, amusement parks and bowling alleys are closed until further notice. Bars and restaurants are closed, but takeout can be ordered during the period of closure.
• Testing is free for all eligible New Yorkers as ordered by a health care provider.
• Your local health department is your community contact for COVID-19 concerns.  

 

If you are in NYS this is a good website to bookmark.

 

“Your local health department is your community contact for

COVID-19 concerns”

 

here is the link to contact info for every NYS local health department:

 

https://www.nysacho.org/directory/

 

 

and here is an interactive map for Erie county:

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

List of services in NYS defined as essential:

https://www.wivb.com/news/a-list-of-essential-services-defined-by-new-york-state/?fbclid=IwAR1bY_FOGOP8-RdK-i59HErWGydG0ZeEd1H0L56OFeNn1rSBQVXmkx6yejM

[Hapless Bills Fan]

This is not for the faint of heart.

 

It's an epidemic disease modeling calculator that allows you to model the impact of covid-19 on a population of different sizes.

http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

 

Here's an example of a model done with it by Tomas Pueyo writing for medium.com (it's an update/follow on of an article linked above)

The Ro (basic transmission number), incubation time, and many other parameters are taken from the 55,000 case dataset  from Wuhan.  Click to embiggen.

I strongly recommend reading Pueyo's article  - it's a clear-eyed look at why the shutdowns are necessary, but far far far from enough.

If you're brave and want to play with github's calculator (this is based on the known behavior of epidemic disease) start with the parameters Pueyo uses and play from there.

 

If you read Pueyo's article, read it to the end where he explains the strategy we should follow:

 

In this model, the "Hammer", or a period of intense shutdowns and social distancing measures, lasts 3-7 weeks. 

"The dance" is the imposition of continued control measures such as testing of all patients with fever, mandatory quarantine of ill patients, and contact tracing.

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...certainly hope that those experiencing difficulties make use of these services.................

Coronavirus pushes mental health counseling online

Psychological effects of quarantine include anger, anxiety, and in some cases, PTSD.

By Jeanette SettembreFOXBusiness

 

Getting therapy remotely is the new normal for many Americans coping with mental health issues while in quarantine.

 

Teletherapy, as it's called, is a form of virtual counseling with a licensed therapist via webcam, phone, email or text message. And while the service has been around for decades, it's now a primary alternative to in-person therapy for those in need while socially distancing during the coronavirus pandemic.

 

"The coronavirus crisis has expanded access to telehealth and telemedicine," Hanna Horvath, a personal finance and healthcare expert at Policygenius, told FOX Business.

"While there might be different charges, mental health is considered one of those essential benefits so therapy, psychiatry and substance abuse treatments should all be covered in your insurance policy," she added. "That doesn't mean it's entirely free; all co-pays and deductibles play a role. If you have a provider, check in with them and make sure they're offering telehealth services."

 

The Trump administration announced this week it will expand telehealth services for Medicare, which will be able to pay hospitals and doctors for remote services on a temporary basis.

 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/online-therapy-mental-health-coronavirus

 

 

Edited March 22, 2020 by Hapless Bills Fan

[BillsFan4]

If I find an English version of this video I will update this post. But this video is still a great demonstration why it’s important to use proper hand washing technique.

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Chloroquine, Is it the Answer?

 

Some publications have hailed chloroquine as a potential antiviral covid-19 treatment due to anti-covid19 activity in test tubes. It has shown test-tube activity against other viral diseases, then has failed to show clinical benefit in controlled double-blind studies in patients.

 

For that reason, Fauci was seen trying to rein in President Trump who "has a good feeling" chloroquine is the answer at a news conference. Here is the basis for Fauci's "reins" against false hope:

 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220301145

 

Key points:

-In vitro data suggest that chloroquine inhibits SARS Cov-2 replication.

-In past research, chloroquine has shown in vitro activity against many different viruses, but no benefit in animal models.
-Chloroquine has been proposed several times for the treatment of acute viral diseases in humans without success. (they mean it was tried, and in proper randomized, double-blind placebo-controlled studies, it showed no effect)

-(Positive) outcomes of some current clinical trials of chloroquine in China have been announced, without access to the data.

-Peer review of the (Chinese clinical trial) results and an independent assessment of the potential benefit for patients are essential.

-Why not just use it? Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are generally considered safe with generally mild, transitory side-effects. However, the "therapeutic window" (the range between the effective and the toxic dose) is quite narrow.  Don't try this at home without medical supervision.

-Chloroquine poisoning has been associated with cardiovascular disorders that can be life-threatening (cure could be as bad as disease without care). 

-This is worth the risk if it proves to be an effective treatment - but not worth just taking it for shucks and grins if it isn't.

 

[BillsFan4]

OI debated posting this, and if Hapless or other mods think it should be removed, I fully understand. [Hap sez: I think everyone should watch it]

 

 

This is starting to happen at hospitals in the U.S.. We are not immune to this, and the less we do right now the harder we are going to be hit. I understand that it may be frustrating but Please take these social distancing measures serious.