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RocCityRoller Veteran

RocCityRoller

Posted
Posted

So in the midst of the Coronavirus Pandemic and the internal melt down by OPEC we are seeing some real panic and market downturns.

Zombie lines of the great unwashed masses line parking lots in mass gatherings for toilet paper and hand sanitizer.

They gather in lines and crowded markets during a time of supposed social isolation (duh)

Preppers look  bit smarter as the media keeps pumping out stories of quarantine and testing shortages.

 

Russia and Saudi Arabia are in a hard to explain oil dumping pissing match. Oil is @$31 a barrel.

 

In the short run things look a bit bleak. There will be more panic selling in the next week or two to come, especially as new testing reveals more people have COVID-19 globally than originally tested. There will be viral spread until inflection. Early testing kits in China, South Korea, Japan and other places will show that the rushed testing was not as accurate as reported, and that the slow but steady measures by the CDC/FDA worked again. Who knows how the Russia vs Saudi oil pissing match will play out. The US will buy oil at record lows.

The news will continue to sensationalize the story, reports of shortages will abound, quarantine efforts spread, US testing response was poor....

 

Certainly travel restrictions do help slow the infection spread. When Austria banned travel to and from Italy, the EU was not happy. Looks wise now.

When Trump issued a travel ban to and from China, he was called 'a racist', but it looks wise now. The ban should have included more countries.

(NY outbreak tied to travel to and from Italy) Could you have imagined the feigned outrage if such a step was implemented?

 

Even though travel bans are 'racist' NYS can ban public assemblies of more than 500... The enlightened college I work for stops all classes for the semester and will have students take classes remotely, but the shlub staff still has to report to location. Public schools still in session, for now. Kind of a mixed signal there. Why?

 

Certainly, limiting visits to hospitals/ senior communities helps reduce infection to the most at risk. My mom, a vet, feels infringed upon.

Certainly if you have a compromised immune system this is a time for caution. Maybe it's time for government run detainment centers?

 

I digress.

 

Let's put things into perspective:

A total of 156k people globally have been 'confirmed' to be infected, out of a world population of 7.7 billion people over 3 months of mixed responses.

The number of infected is higher than currently reported due to lack of good testing in all countries (hard to develop a test for a new virus and be accurate).

But, based on what we know the count is 156,000 globally, or 1 in 50,000.

 

Global known deaths are 5819, largely clustered in a few places. That is 1 in 1.3 million people.

The probability of being struck by lightning is 1 in 700,000.

The probability of dying in a car crash in the USA is 1 in 77

USA Heart attack 1 in 4.

 

In the USA known Coronavirus infections are 2726.

The 2018-2019 flu infected 35.5 MILLION, or 1 in 10, with 34,000 deaths.

No outrage, no panic. Life moved on.

 

The 2009 swine flu infected @ 60 MILLION US Residents, or 1 in 6.

Do you remember an outrage or panic? 1 in 6 infected!!! Where was the media?

12,000 Americans died to Swine Flu....

Minimal media sensationalism, plenty of TP on shelves, no panic.

 

The above were called flus, this is a VIRUS!!!

 

The COVID-19 is more deadly at the moment. While mortality rates for flu are between 0.1% and 0.2% and swine flu was 0.02%, COVID-19 is holding steady at 2.5-3%.

I'll wager a guess that by the time this is all done that will shrink to 0.4-0.6% with total global infection rates in the 1 in 6 to 1 in 10 range.

 

Opportunity knocks.

 

The S&P 500 was at 2278 when Trump took office. As of Friday it was 2711up 19%, but quite a tumble from 3225 (41%) a few weeks ago before the Coronavirus and the oil war.

Either would have done some damage, but this is a nasty 1,2 combo. I find it odd that Russia is dumping oil in a reelection year during a viral outbreak that has much of the world nervous, and the economy of the USA in a freeze. That is less than neighborly behavior toward a supposed 'ally' by helping tank an economy. Then again the Russia 'connection' could have been cr@p all along.

 

If you were like me and missed out on getting into the market in 2016, and had money tied up in Cash/Money Market/ Bond investments I think the next week or two will be a generational market buying opportunity. Wait a week if you want, but the low point will be within the next 4 weeks.

 

A plain old market index fund will reap nice rewards a year or two from now.

 

As for quick plays look to the companies that the FDA/CDC has recently approved for testing:

 

Roche Diagnostics (RHHBY) is trading at 40.30 (40.0 in after hours trading).

It was approved for USA screening of COVID-19 on Friday.

https://diagnostics.roche.com/us/en/news-listing/2020/roche-receives-fda-emergency-use-authorization-for-cobas-sars-co.html

I expect a 10-20%return over the next month. Get in early, ride it for 3-4 weeks, get out.

they have their own COVID-19 screening test. Their machinery is wide spread in many labs, and each can process 4000 tests in a day.

 

Same for Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) 300.12 as of Friday.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/14/thermo-fisher-to-produce-millions-of-coronavirus-diagnostic-tests/

 

Both have had early recovery from the market fall, but there is meat on the bone.

 

Lastly oil futures. Oil is at $31 a barrel. Take up some buy options with a basket of oil producers. From 2018 to 2020 it was rare for oil price per barrel prices to drop below $45 a barrel.

 

 

  • Awesome! (+1) 1
RocCityRoller Veteran

RocCityRoller

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, RiotAct said:

“odds of dying in a car crash in the USA 1 in 77”

 

 

Uhhh.... you got a source for that?

 

Done:

https://www.cars.com/articles/are-the-odds-ever-in-your-favor-car-crashes-versus-other-fatalities-1420682154567/

https://static.carsdn.co/cldstatic/wp-content/uploads/img399360213-1444938154262.jpg

12 hours ago, CoudyBills said:

Let me recap for you.  Market plunged, buy low, make big bucks on the recovery.  

Roche Diagnostics (RHHBY) is trading at 40.30 (40.0 in after hours trading).

It was approved for USA screening of COVID-19 on Friday.

 

Same for Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) 300.12 as of Friday.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/14/thermo-fisher-to-produce-millions-of-coronavirus-diagnostic-tests/

 

The rest of it was getting stuff off my chest, but I feel better now ?

Edited by RocCityRoller
Tiberius Hall of Famer

Tiberius

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, RocCityRoller said:

So in the midst of the Coronavirus Pandemic and the internal melt down by OPEC we are seeing some real panic and market downturns.

Zombie lines of the great unwashed masses line parking lots in mass gatherings for toilet paper and hand sanitizer.

They gather in lines and crowded markets during a time of supposed social isolation (duh)

Preppers look  bit smarter as the media keeps pumping out stories of quarantine and testing shortages.

 

Russia and Saudi Arabia are in a hard to explain oil dumping pissing match. Oil is @$31 a barrel.

 

In the short run things look a bit bleak. There will be more panic selling in the next week or two to come, especially as new testing reveals more people have COVID-19 globally than originally tested. There will be viral spread until inflection. Early testing kits in China, South Korea, Japan and other places will show that the rushed testing was not as accurate as reported, and that the slow but steady measures by the CDC/FDA worked again. Who knows how the Russia vs Saudi oil pissing match will play out. The US will buy oil at record lows.

The news will continue to sensationalize the story, reports of shortages will abound, quarantine efforts spread, US testing response was poor....

 

Certainly travel restrictions do help slow the infection spread. When Austria banned travel to and from Italy, the EU was not happy. Looks wise now.

When Trump issued a travel ban to and from China, he was called 'a racist', but it looks wise now. The ban should have included more countries.

(NY outbreak tied to travel to and from Italy) Could you have imagined the feigned outrage if such a step was implemented?

 

Even though travel bans are 'racist' NYS can ban public assemblies of more than 500... The enlightened college I work for stops all classes for the semester and will have students take classes remotely, but the shlub staff still has to report to location. Public schools still in session, for now. Kind of a mixed signal there. Why?

 

Certainly, limiting visits to hospitals/ senior communities helps reduce infection to the most at risk. My mom, a vet, feels infringed upon.

Certainly if you have a compromised immune system this is a time for caution. Maybe it's time for government run detainment centers?

 

I digress.

 

Let's put things into perspective:

A total of 156k people globally have been 'confirmed' to be infected, out of a world population of 7.7 billion people over 3 months of mixed responses.

The number of infected is higher than currently reported due to lack of good testing in all countries (hard to develop a test for a new virus and be accurate).

But, based on what we know the count is 156,000 globally, or 1 in 50,000.

 

Global known deaths are 5819, largely clustered in a few places. That is 1 in 1.3 million people.

The probability of being struck by lightning is 1 in 700,000.

The probability of dying in a car crash in the USA is 1 in 77

USA Heart attack 1 in 4.

 

In the USA known Coronavirus infections are 2726.

The 2018-2019 flu infected 35.5 MILLION, or 1 in 10, with 34,000 deaths.

No outrage, no panic. Life moved on.

 

The 2009 swine flu infected @ 60 MILLION US Residents, or 1 in 6.

Do you remember an outrage or panic? 1 in 6 infected!!! Where was the media?

12,000 Americans died to Swine Flu....

Minimal media sensationalism, plenty of TP on shelves, no panic.

 

The above were called flus, this is a VIRUS!!!

 

The COVID-19 is more deadly at the moment. While mortality rates for flu are between 0.1% and 0.2% and swine flu was 0.02%, COVID-19 is holding steady at 2.5-3%.

I'll wager a guess that by the time this is all done that will shrink to 0.4-0.6% with total global infection rates in the 1 in 6 to 1 in 10 range.

 

Opportunity knocks.

 

The S&P 500 was at 2278 when Trump took office. As of Friday it was 2711up 19%, but quite a tumble from 3225 (41%) a few weeks ago before the Coronavirus and the oil war.

Either would have done some damage, but this is a nasty 1,2 combo. I find it odd that Russia is dumping oil in a reelection year during a viral outbreak that has much of the world nervous, and the economy of the USA in a freeze. That is less than neighborly behavior toward a supposed 'ally' by helping tank an economy. Then again the Russia 'connection' could have been cr@p all along.

 

If you were like me and missed out on getting into the market in 2016, and had money tied up in Cash/Money Market/ Bond investments I think the next week or two will be a generational market buying opportunity. Wait a week if you want, but the low point will be within the next 4 weeks.

 

A plain old market index fund will reap nice rewards a year or two from now.

 

As for quick plays look to the companies that the FDA/CDC has recently approved for testing:

 

Roche Diagnostics (RHHBY) is trading at 40.30 (40.0 in after hours trading).

It was approved for USA screening of COVID-19 on Friday.

https://diagnostics.roche.com/us/en/news-listing/2020/roche-receives-fda-emergency-use-authorization-for-cobas-sars-co.html

I expect a 10-20%return over the next month. Get in early, ride it for 3-4 weeks, get out.

they have their own COVID-19 screening test. Their machinery is wide spread in many labs, and each can process 4000 tests in a day.

 

Same for Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) 300.12 as of Friday.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/14/thermo-fisher-to-produce-millions-of-coronavirus-diagnostic-tests/

 

Both have had early recovery from the market fall, but there is meat on the bone.

 

Lastly oil futures. Oil is at $31 a barrel. Take up some buy options with a basket of oil producers. From 2018 to 2020 it was rare for oil price per barrel prices to drop below $45 a barrel.

 

 

Buy? 

Artful Dodger Rookie

Artful Dodger

Posted
Posted
On 3/14/2020 at 8:58 PM, RocCityRoller said:

Let's put things into perspective:

A total of 156k people globally have been 'confirmed' to be infected, out of a world population of 7.7 billion people over 3 months of mixed responses.

The number of infected is higher than currently reported due to lack of good testing in all countries (hard to develop a test for a new virus and be accurate).

But, based on what we know the count is 156,000 globally, or 1 in 50,000.

 

Global known deaths are 5819, largely clustered in a few places. That is 1 in 1.3 million people.

The probability of being struck by lightning is 1 in 700,000.

The probability of dying in a car crash in the USA is 1 in 77

USA Heart attack 1 in 4.

 

 

It's not where you are; it's where you're going.   

Numark3 Veteran

Numark3

Posted
Posted

I’d recommend (unless you know what you doing) anyone buying just get index funds tied to the market, rather than target individual stocks. VFIAX is great.  

  • Like (+1) 1
  • 3 months later...
RocCityRoller Veteran

RocCityRoller

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Almost 3 months have passed let's see if the crystal ball was correct on the stocks.

 

TMO is at $386.63 up over $86 per share from $300.12 a 28% gain in about a quarter.

RHHBY is $44.12 up a more modest $4.12 from $40.00, still a 10% gain in a very volatile quarter.

 

Oil - WTI Crude today is $40.96, up $9.96 from $31. That would be a 33% gain.

And this is with a lot of states still locked down, or partially locked down.

 

not too shabby ?

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