NBA suspends season due to coronavirus

[GoBills808]

Just now, KD in CA said:

 

Well....the flu without any natural resistance or vaccine.   Which does kinda make it quite a bit more serious.

 

I agree it's hard to reconcile the scale of the response because we've not seen anything like it before, but there are some pretty aggressive growth rates happening in spots around the world.

And a 20-50x fatality rate but other than that yeah...just like the flu.

[DCOrange]

22 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Gonna get a lot worse. Reports are SCOTUS and Senate briefed that 70-150M Americans could get infected. Run the 3.4% mortality rate by WHO and that is a grim number. 

The 3.4% number isn’t the actual mortality rate but it will still be a ton of deaths if it spreads that much. 

[CountDorkula]

The right move. They had no choice.

 

that one NBA player. 

how many other players did he contact

how many fans

how many coaches

how many refs 

 

the Jazz just played the Raptors. 
 

the Raptors just held a massive community event with all their players days after that game. 
 

 

this is the wildfire effect. 

[brianthomas]

13 minutes ago, jabu said:

 

It would amount to 2,380,000 deaths using the lowest number projection. That's nothing to sneeze at - no pun intended.

i read this the other day, an Australian team of experts ran 6 predictive models on what we can expect worldwide, and their most favorable prediction was 15 million dead worldwide & $2.4 Trillion lost to GDP. Who knows if its correct or not & i obviously hope it isnt, but this whole thing is something we havent full grasped yet as to its significance. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-toll-global-gdp-loss-australian-national-university-study-2020-3?op=1

[NickelCity]

27 minutes ago, BuffalOhio said:

We're gonna be on a nationwide lockdown within 2 weeks.

 

 

Been on lockdown here in Seattle. Wild. 

[brianthomas]

25 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Gonna get a lot worse. Reports are SCOTUS and Senate briefed that 70-150M Americans could get infected. Run the 3.4% mortality rate by WHO and that is a grim number. 

Angela Merkel today out of Germany said their country could expect up to 70% of their population to become infected. Seeing varied numbers around the globe, but theyre all in that range https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51835856

[row_33]

4 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

The right move. They had no choice.

 

that one NBA player. 

how many other players did he contact

how many fans

how many coaches

how many refs 

 

the Jazz just played the Raptors. 
 

the Raptors just held a massive community event with all their players days after that game. 
 

 

this is the wildfire effect. 

Had to do it
 

you have one person test positive

 

i know 3, separately, who were called due to air flight with people who tested positive, they are fine

 

[Chicken Boo]

46 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

I don’t know what is a bigger joke. Basketball or everyone being terrified of a cold

 

How old are your parents?  Grandparents?  Aunts?  Uncles?  

 

Seems like the older you are, the higher the risk.  Don't know about you, but I would love for my 70 year old parents, aunts and uncles to be around for as long as possible.

[LSHMEAB]

There just has to be more to this story. How are they projecting half the country ends up with this thing? It is only SLIGHTLY more contagious than the common flu. 

 

Does HALF the population get the flu and how are they convinced this will not die out in the summer?

 

There just seems to be a lot of noise(from ALL sides of the political equation, so not really a political comment) and dearth of actual INFORMATION.

 

 

[CountDorkula]

9 minutes ago, row_33 said:

Had to do it
 

you have one person test positive

 

i know 3, separately, who were called due to air flight with people who tested positive, they are fine

 

Do they have to go back and be tested multiple times? 

[row_33]

2 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

Do they have to go back and be tested multiple times? 

no, after 10 days after the flight and zero symptoms there is no concern

[Hapless Bills Fan]

45 minutes ago, BuffalOhio said:

We're gonna be on a nationwide lockdown within 2 weeks.

 

 

Might take 4 or even 6.  Probably lock down WA, CA, and NY first then figure out that ain’t working.

[DCOrange]

7 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

There just has to be more to this story. How are they projecting half the country ends up with this thing? It is only SLIGHTLY more contagious than the common flu. 

 

Does HALF the population get the flu and how are they convinced this will not die out in the summer?

 

There just seems to be a lot of noise(from ALL sides of the political equation, so not really a political comment) and dearth of actual INFORMATION.

 

 

I don’t think anyone knows exactly how this will behave since it just came into existence a few months ago, but basically, with its rate of spread and the fact that there is no vaccine, there’s no reason it should stop spreading unless we eventually all go into total isolation. 
 

The thing preventing half the country from getting the flu is the vaccine’s existence. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

There just has to be more to this story. How are they projecting half the country ends up with this thing? It is only SLIGHTLY more contagious than the common flu. 

 

Does HALF the population get the flu and how are they convinced this will not die out in the summer?

 

There just seems to be a lot of noise(from ALL sides of the political equation, so not really a political comment) and dearth of actual INFORMATION.

 

There is this thread in Off the Wall where I’m trying to keep some good info up.

 

I’d rather go there than answer this here.

[vincec]

22 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

 

Well....the flu without any natural resistance or vaccine.   Which does kinda make it quite a bit more serious.

 

I agree it's hard to reconcile the scale of the response because we've not seen anything like it before, but there are some pretty aggressive growth rates happening in spots around the world.

... and with 10x the mortality rate. Plus it happens in conjunction with the flu, which doesn't go away btw.

[thenorthremembers]

Really dont know what to make of thia thing.  Swine Flu killed 136 times the amoumt of people this thing has and I dont recall it being such a massive freakout.

[SCBills]

The mortality rate will drop once more people are tested, and it’s much lower in countries like South Korea who have handled it properly. 
 

Id agree with those who say this is basically the flu, if the flu didn’t have a vaccine.  That no vaccine basically means we have no way to stop this from spreading outside quarantine, which is why we’re seeing these massive precautions. That is leading to panic.  (That, and the side effects of an irresponsible media)

 

 

Edited March 12, 2020 by SCBills

[Whkfc]

I think the they are praying the warmer weather coming will slow this down like it does the flu but there is no history to show that will be the case.

[par73]

NHL will be next. Will the Baseball season even start? This is obviously much bigger than sports-- nothing like this has turned the world upside down in our lifetimes.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

15 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I don’t think anyone knows exactly how this will behave since it just came into existence a few months ago, but basically, with its rate of spread and the fact that there is no vaccine, there’s no reason it should stop spreading unless we eventually all go into total isolation. 
 

The thing preventing half the country from getting the flu is the vaccine’s existence. 

 

OK I’ll take this here after all, but prefer discussion move over to OTW thread.

 

Two factors: There’s this thing called reproductive number or reproductive ratio, which describes how many people will get a disease upon exposure to an infected individual.  For seasonal influenza, it’s 1.3 because of partial immunity (including vaccine-induced immunity).  For this disease, it’s at least 2.2 and possibly higher.  So it will spread and keep spreading until contained by quarantine (we’re past that point).  Practically speaking means that flu has infected about 45 people at the same number of cycles where Covid19 has infected close to 500 people.  Second, influenza tends to shut down in warm weather for reasons that are still incompletely understood.

 

We don’t yet know what this virus will do.

 

The real problem though, is not the infectiousness of the disease per se it’s:

1) The overwhelming majority of patients aren’t that sick - 80% - so they don’t realize they have it and go happily on about their life, spreading it

2)  Susceptible people and others who get seriously ill with this, get much sicker than seasonal influenza.  15% require hospital care and concentrated oxygen therapy for weeks, 5% require critical care.  This can quickly overwhelm even good health care resources.

 

What public health measures are trying to do here, is flatten/delay the epidemic response curve so that hospitals don’t have to decide who gets intubated and who dies.  The reason Wuhan had a high death rate (5.8% or something like that) is that their hospitals were overwhelmed despite efficient national mobilization efforts.  The reason the rest of China is running much lower (0.9 or 0.7%) is because they were aggressive about testing, contact tracing, and quarantine and are keeping the disease controlled to where health care resources can give each patient their best.  

 

Taiwan, Singapore, and S. Korea similar - Korea had a glitch with a religious group but they seem to have reined that in.  But they are very inclusive about testing.  They are testing everyone with a fever now.   S. Korea has drive-through test clinics.  They also mean business about contact tracing and quarantine.  In Taiwan they use your cell phone to track you.  Don’t give permission for that?  Go to secure facility.  Wuhan now has 1,800 teams of 5 doing contact tracing - just in Wuhan.  They have a test that gives results in 15 minutes.