Lurker Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 (edited) 45 minutes ago, DCOrange said: See the third tab here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EGcKt-3OhHND7shQmY9LREGwBxtnUcFwQtQDz2U-3tk Higgins’ speed score isn’t listed because PlayerProfiler.com (who calculates the speed score) doesn’t use pro day numbers and the formula I’ve found for it isn’t exactly correct, but it’s close enough to know Higgins would be somewhere around a 106 give or take a point. I did some quick back of the envelop calcualtions using the combine data and Football Outsiders "speed score" formula and came up with this: Lamb and Jeudy's score was somewhat surprising as well. Edited March 14, 2020 by Lurker
DCOrange Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Lurker said: I did some quick back of the envelop calcualtions using the combine data and Football Outsiders "speed score" formula and came up with this: Lamb and Jeudy's score was somewhat surprising as well. That one isn’t adjusting for height though. There’s a formula for HASS (height adjusted speed score) that’s basically one step further than the formula you used but the official formula isn’t publicly available from what I can tell. We can replicate it to be within a point or so but that’s the best I’ve been able to find. I also wasn’t including a few of the guys on that list. Watkins, Juwan Johnson, and i think one or two others. The list I’m looking at is all the guys that are included in PFF’s draft guide since it allows me to look at a combination of stats, metrics, and measureables that I don’t have for some of those guys. Edited March 14, 2020 by DCOrange
Lurker Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, DCOrange said: That one isn’t adjusting for height though. There’s a formula for HASS (height adjusted speed score) that’s basically one step further than the formula you used but the official formula isn’t publicly available from what I can tell. We can replicate it to be within a point or so but that’s the best I’ve been able to find Take 2. Much better for Higgins. Very interesting... (not any better for Lamb and Jeudy) 1
DCOrange Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Lurker said: Take 2. Much better for Higgins. Very interesting... (not any better for Lamb and Jeudy) On a semi-related note, there’s a guy on Twitter that’s been going through the NFL Combine runs frame by frame and calculating exact 40 times and basically, he’s arguing that for example, Reagor actually ran a 4.40, not a 4.47. Weird stuff. Edited March 14, 2020 by DCOrange
GunnerBill Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 18 minutes ago, DCOrange said: On a semi-related note, there’s a guy on Twitter that’s been going through the NFL Combine runs frame by frame and calculating exact 40 times and basically, he’s arguing that for example, Reagor actually ran a 4.40, not a 4.47. Weird stuff. I don't understand that maths..... but I was surprised with Reagor's time. Expected him to run faster.
KOKBILLS Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 24 minutes ago, Lurker said: Take 2. Much better for Higgins. Very interesting... (not any better for Lamb and Jeudy) Denzel Mims though...?
Alphadawg7 Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 3 hours ago, GunnerBill said: I fear that all 3 will be gone by the Falcons. I think 3 QBs, 4 OTs, 3 WRs, 2 DTs, 1 EDGE, 1 Linebacker and 1 corner is my prediction for the first 15 picks. If one of those falls I think it will either be one of the DTs or one of the OTs. Certainly possible, but I still think one of those big 3 WRs drop to 16. Let’s hope I am right and let’s hope it’s Lamb or Juedy ?
DCOrange Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 49 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I don't understand that maths..... but I was surprised with Reagor's time. Expected him to run faster. Those numbers are the timestamps measuring the difference between when he started and when he finished
DJB Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 3 hours ago, DCOrange said: On a semi-related note, there’s a guy on Twitter that’s been going through the NFL Combine runs frame by frame and calculating exact 40 times and basically, he’s arguing that for example, Reagor actually ran a 4.40, not a 4.47. Weird stuff. But the times are laser timed. How can they change?
DCOrange Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, DJB said: But the times are laser timed. How can they change? The times start with a hand and end with a laser so presumably in these cases the hand guy started a little too early.
DJB Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, DCOrange said: The times start with a hand and end with a laser so presumably in these cases the hand guy started a little too early. Fair enough
Chicken Boo Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 8 hours ago, JoPoy88 said: Right. Probably why they drafted Zay Jones. All about that college production. Best indicator. Probably also why all those hawaii QBs that broke all those passing records had such epic careers in the NFL. All about that (((college))) production. East Carolina and Hawaii? Come on, man. You can do better than that. 8 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said: Hopkins is not physical. He’s smooth. Thomas has definitely got some physical aspects of his game. I disagree on that. Both Hop and Thomas are physical receivers. Not Anquan Boldin per se, but physical at the point of attack.
Alphadawg7 Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said: East Carolina and Hawaii? Come on, man. You can do better than that. I disagree on that. Both Hop and Thomas are physical receivers. Not Anquan Boldin per se, but physical at the point of attack. When I say physical I am referencing Boldin type of physical. I agree he’s physical at point of attack and uses body position to do versus out muscling guys. Higgins has some of that in his game too IMO. Thomas is more physical overall than Hopkins. 1
Alphadawg7 Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 (edited) For the record, if you run under 4.59 or better in the 40, you are fast enough to be potentially still be an Elite WR still in the NFL. If you are a talented route runner and excel in catching, body position, etc your 40 time isn’t the end all be all. Hopkins and Thomas both ran 4.57 for example as I said earlier. I’m not saying don’t try and find speed at WR, but it’s just over focused on to find these amazing 40 times. I mean we have speed in John Brown, so it’s not like if we drafted a guy like Higgins we are suddenly “slow” at wideout. People are so enamored with “speed” yet when you look around the league there are Elite WRs at all speed ranges including between 4.50 and 4.59 currently and throughout history. Game speed and straight line 40 speed with no gear on are very different. Is having elite speed like sub 4.4 nice, sure is. But it also doesn’t mean squat to your success if you don’t run consistent routes, if you can’t beat press coverage, if you can’t make contested catches, if you have shaky hands, etc. This obsession of focusing so hard on 40 times is an unreliable and misleading way to evaluate a WR. Now if you are good in other areas and blazing fast, well even better and that could be a special player. But it’s not the end all be all it’s blown up to be if a WR isn’t challenging speed records. Look at last year alone on our own team. So many people pissed and moaned about the Singletary pick and said he was slow over his 40 time despite looking fast and explosive in game film. Yet he averaged 5.1 YPC as a rookie because he’s very good in all aspects of the game and that makes him game fast. I want a 6’3” stud who runs a 4.35 forty as much as anyone, but that’s a rare find and it ain’t the only way to find an impact WR. PS: We had our chance last year at that guy and we passed...see: Metcalf, DK. Edited March 15, 2020 by Alphadawg7 2
KOKBILLS Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 As I wrote previously in this thread I like Tee...I think he's got a good chance to be decent...I also like his physical package overall understanding the Bills don't have anyone on their roster like him... I was not thrilled with Tee's workout overall...But it was not terrible either...To me the most important part is the film...And I like the film...If he's the guy at #22 so be it...I have to admit I'd be happy with it...I just love the way Tee snatches the ball... Based on what I've watched personally, if the Bills are looking at WR at #22 (and let's assume the top 3 are gone) the names in play (IMHO) will be Justin Jefferson, Denzel Mims, Laviska Shenault, and Tee Higgins... I really like Laviska...I mean...Early on in this process he was my guy...But he's the 1st one I'm eliminating because of the injuries...Too risky for my blood... I don't have much of a preference between Jefferson and Higgins...Like them both and would welcome either...Again the Bills are looking to finish off a WR Roster, not start one, and both Jefferson and Higgins bring elements to expand what the Bills do on Offense...Both would fit right in... But if you're asking me my preference...and admittedly no one is...I'm taking Mims...He's only 3/4" shorter than Higgins...His arms only 1/4" shorter than Tee's...4.38 speed with a 38.5" vert!!! But none of that matters without the tape...And Mims tape is really nice...He's often polished and nuanced...And he'll get better...He's got plenty of room to grow...I think he's a plug and play guy in this Offense...He made some crazy good grabs on poorly thrown balls too!!! To me Mims is the guy at #22...But I like all of them for different reasons....They're all good with room to get much better...I just think Mims is closer to the total package than the other 3...? 1
Alphadawg7 Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, KOKBILLS said: As I wrote previously in this thread I like Tee...I think he's got a good chance to be decent...I also like his physical package overall understanding the Bills don't have anyone on their roster like him... I was not thrilled with Tee's workout overall...But it was not terrible either...To me the most important part is the film...And I like the film...If he's the guy at #22 so be it...I have to admit I'd be happy with it...I just love the way Tee snatches the ball... Based on what I've watched personally, if the Bills are looking at WR at #22 (and let's assume the top 3 are gone) the names in play (IMHO) will be Justin Jefferson, Denzel Mims, Laviska Shenault, and Tee Higgins... I really like Laviska...I mean...Early on in this process he was my guy...But he's the 1st one I'm eliminating because of the injuries...Too risky for my blood... I don't have much of a preference between Jefferson and Higgins...Like them both and would welcome either...Again the Bills are looking to finish off a WR Roster, not start one, and both Jefferson and Higgins bring elements to expand what the Bills do on Offense...Both would fit right in... But if you're asking me my preference...and admittedly no one is...I'm taking Mims...He's only 3/4" shorter than Higgins...His arms only 1/4" shorter than Tee's...4.38 speed with a 38.5" vert!!! But none of that matters without the tape...And Mims tape is really nice...He's often polished and nuanced...And he'll get better...He's got plenty of room to grow...I think he's a plug and play guy in this Offense...He made some crazy good grabs on poorly thrown balls too!!! To me Mims is the guy at #22...But I like all of them for different reasons....They're all good with room to get much better...I just think Mims is closer to the total package than the other 3...? I like all these same guys too, and same concerns about Shenault after also previously being sure he would be the pick. I also have Higgins and Jefferson pretty close as well. I also think Mims is a good prospect as well and wouldn’t be shocked if he was picked at 22. But if I had to place a bet on what WR we would pick if we did go WR and stayed put at 22 (Big 3 off the board too), then I would put the odds as: Higgins: -120 Jefferson: +100 Mims: +220 Shenault: +400 Basically today, I have Higgins a slight favorite over Jefferson. BUT: If say Juedy or Lamb slip to Atlanta, I think Beane hits the phone looking to move up. Im also not ruling out taking taking someone else at another position at 22 or even trading up for day Chaisson if he slips near our pick either. But if I’m just assuming we take a WR at 22, I have a feeling Higgins is a slight front runner right now. Edited March 15, 2020 by Alphadawg7 2
qwksilver Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: I like all these same guys too, and same concerns about Shenault after also previously being sure he would be the pick. I also have Higgins and Jefferson pretty close as well. I also think Mims is a good prospect as well and wouldn’t be shocked if he was picked at 22. But if I had to place a bet on what WR we would pick if we did go WR and stayed put at 22 (Big 3 off the board too), then I would put the odds as: Higgins: -120 Jefferson: +100 Mims: +220 Shenault: +400 Basically today, I have Higgins a slight favorite over Jefferson. BUT: If say Juedy or Lamb slip to Atlanta, I think Beane hits the phone looking to move up. Im also not ruling out taking taking someone else at another position at 22 or even trading up for day Chaisson if he slips near our pick either. But if I’m just assuming we take a WR at 22, I have a feeling Higgins is a slight front runner right now. This draft might be the best WR draft ever. My concern/question is with Beasley in the slot and probably not moving who was most used/most comfortable on the outside? If Lamb is at 16 Beane has to flip a 3rd and maybe something next year to go get him. Hopefully Cardinals go OL andthey don't not start a run on WRs. 1
KOKBILLS Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 52 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: I like all these same guys too, and same concerns about Shenault after also previously being sure he would be the pick. I also have Higgins and Jefferson pretty close as well. I also think Mims is a good prospect as well and wouldn’t be shocked if he was picked at 22. But if I had to place a bet on what WR we would pick if we did go WR and stayed put at 22 (Big 3 off the board too), then I would put the odds as: Higgins: -120 Jefferson: +100 Mims: +220 Shenault: +400 Basically today, I have Higgins a slight favorite over Jefferson. BUT: If say Juedy or Lamb slip to Atlanta, I think Beane hits the phone looking to move up. Im also not ruling out taking taking someone else at another position at 22 or even trading up for day Chaisson if he slips near our pick either. But if I’m just assuming we take a WR at 22, I have a feeling Higgins is a slight front runner right now. Agreed...My gut is telling me it's Higgins all the way assuming the top guys don't fall...And I'm totally fine with that...I just prefer Mims overall... I'm almost afraid to say it, but I think Tee has Michael Thomas potential...They are similar athletes, and the way Tee snatches it reminds me of Thomas...Plus I think both have similar on-the-field attitude...Thomas had plenty of things to work out coming into the NFL as well...None of these guys are finished ...Where they land, who coaches them, and who they play with is every bit as important as their current skills... But we'll see...?
John from Riverside Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 On 3/7/2020 at 5:36 PM, T master said: I'm hoping they go with Chase Claypool from ND & he will more than likely bo there when the Bills pick comes around then they can get a good edge rusher in the second round like the guy out of Penn St. Gross Mato i'd say that would be a good get 1st & 2nd round !! I've heard that Higgins had a couple of issues & isn't as versatile where Claypool i guess they lined up all over the place & would be more versatile in the scheme . Some might consider Claypool too high at 22....I actually think that he is not. If he is the pick I am happy
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