TigerJ Posted March 6, 2020 Posted March 6, 2020 I certainly think a trade down could be an option. It will, of course, depend on who is left on the board. I wouldn't trade down too far myself, but I don't think you'd have to go too far to pick up a day 2 pick. If you had to, you could throw in a 6th rounder to get the day 2 pick you want.
BillsVet Posted March 6, 2020 Posted March 6, 2020 Two months since the WC game and some have forgotten what made the difference that day. Houston's not the top team in the league, but they erased a 16 point deficit rather quickly and much of it was via the passing game. Yeah, it's hard to find top WR's...it's even harder when you wait until the 2nd and 3rd round to do so. This off-season is about finishing their rebuild and rounding out the skill positions with top talent. Being average across the field with choir-boy types and loads of cap room doesn't get you far. Ask former NYJ GM John Idzik how beneficial it was to save cap room heading into a season. 3
BarleyNY Posted March 6, 2020 Posted March 6, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Pete said: I would always trade down for extra picks- it increases odds of hitting on an elite talent, and is great for salary cap and comp picks down road. Right now we need- WR 1 WR 4 RB 1b Edge CB backup QB LB wecan keep our picks, and have 3 top 100 picks, including pick 22, and fill 3 of those needs, maybe. Or we can trade back, trade up, make multiple deals, and have 5-6 players in top 100. give me the later option every time, and especially this year, unless top 3 OL fall to us, Chaisson, or Jeudy and Lamb Your plan sounds like it’s on the spot for what we hear analytics based value models say. It should be noted that while that is where the greatest value is, there are two issues with building a complete team that way and that analytics models do show this as well. It doesn’t maximize wins and it doesn’t utilize cap resources well. A very value centric team could be built this way, but that team wouldn’t win that much and it wouldn’t even make the league salary cap floor. The point of those value models is to gain salary cap that can be used for elite players that equate to wins. So, yes, if an elite prospect can’t be acquired it’s better to get more second tier prospects. But ultimately teams want to spend to their cap limit in an effective manner. That means a strong base of value players along with as much elite talent as can be had. Edited March 6, 2020 by BarleyNY
BmarvB Posted March 6, 2020 Posted March 6, 2020 Stay put and take a shot at an Impact player. That's what this team is missing right now. 1
MarkyMannn Posted March 6, 2020 Posted March 6, 2020 i like the 2018 draft. Pick a guy at the top and get back in and get another mid-round first. How'd that work out? Pretty good. Besides we got few holes, we need quality picks, not quantity
Gisele Posted March 6, 2020 Posted March 6, 2020 I want to see what we do in free agency before I start guessing the draft. 1
Just Joshin' Posted March 6, 2020 Posted March 6, 2020 If the top edge, OL or WR targets are off the board then yes. Otherwise stay put and get a day 1 starter.
Ethan in Cleveland Posted March 6, 2020 Posted March 6, 2020 Amen OP. There is no difference between 22 and the mid thirties. The only thin you lose is the fifth year guarantee. I’d give that up for additional picks on day two. Additionally, after using a day 3 pick on best punter, I would package some of the 5th and 6th round picks for higher 2021 pick. There are not many roster spots up for grabs especially if they sign at least a couple starters in free agency or bring back Spain. A few day two defenders and AJ Green would be perfect. Or a DE in free agency and then a WR and two OLB on day two.
Seoulofstone Posted March 6, 2020 Posted March 6, 2020 I like this idea, though not the players OP chose. I am trading back to pick up Zack Baun and either Denzel Mims or Laviska Shenault. For those who think impact players only exist at pick 20 I give you DK Metcalf. Good players always fall.... 1
Alphadawg7 Posted March 6, 2020 Posted March 6, 2020 Personally, I think it’s entirely possible we trade down if a guy they covet isn’t on the board at 22. They could trade down and get a guy like Dugger for example. But the power of trading down could also lead to them trading back up, maybe even multiple times to land even more 2nd and 3rd round players this year. I could honestly see Beane parlaying our draft assets into as many as 5 or 6 picks in the top 3 rounds. Trade down picking up 2 there and some change potentially and then another trade up or 2. Im NOT predicting this, I mean honestly there is no way to predict our draft this year with any accuracy, especially before FA. I can just as easily see us trading up if we can get to a spot at a price Beane can stomach to get a premier talent he covets. There are just so many scenarios that could play out that have us landing a guy they covet at 22, trading up, or even trading down. But a trade down I think is a legit possibility if they stand pat and they get a good offer to move back and their top targets are already gone. That being said, there is a 0% chance they trade down regardless of the offer if he a high priority target is on the board at 22. Beane will for sure take the talent over the picks.
Chicken Boo Posted March 6, 2020 Posted March 6, 2020 6 hours ago, cage said: What's the definition of ELITE talent? Outside of QB, possibly OT and probably DE/Edge, I don't think the first round is nirvana. If one of the top 4 OT or K'lavon Chaisson falls to #22, they should go for it. Outside of that a trade-down seems a good strategy for Bills with their needs. Look at the top 10 WRs last year (excluded RB/TE), only 3 were drafted in the first round: 1. Michael Thomas 3 2. Keenan Allen 3 3. DeAndre Hopkins 1 4. Julian Edelman 7 5. Julio Jones 1 6. Allen Robinson 2 7. Cooper Kupp 3 8. Tyler Boyd 2 9. Robert Woods 2 10. DJ Moore 1 Add to that guys like Tyreek Hill (5), Kenny Galloday (3), Adam Theilan (UDFA), Mike Evans (1), OBJ (1), Amari Cooper (1), Devante Adams (2) and even Antonio Brown (6). Just a minority are first rounders. You have a lot more faith in Brandon Beane's eye for WR talent than I do. Keep in mind, we're looking for a premier #1 guy and Josh doesn't have 3 years to wait for a wideout to develop. The Bills cannot miss here. 1
Zerovoltz Posted March 6, 2020 Posted March 6, 2020 Something to think about here...... It's a deep draft. It stands to reason A LOT of teams will want to trade back for more picks etc...but in a market where so many teams are looking to trade back, and so few looking to trade up.....there could be value in moving up instead. Follow me for a moment here. Let's say you are.....Green Bay at 30 (just a random team) and you feel that there are a ton of guys at 35-50 who are all about the same and you'd like to move back. ......You need a partner or 2 who'd want to move up. If you can't find that market, then you aren't moving down.....So, the Packers, if they are intent on moving down in this case, would probably be willing to trade back for less than the chart value etc....because all the teams want to move back for picks and no on wants to move up. Hopefully I am making my point with the example, wich is.....in a year like this, there is value in MOVING UP. It may well be a bargain if you want to go up, instead of back. If you believe in the value of picks and you believe in targeting your guy.....this is a great year to be on the hunt to move up.....because it shouldn't be that costly. 3
BarleyNY Posted March 6, 2020 Posted March 6, 2020 1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said: Amen OP. There is no difference between 22 and the mid thirties. The only thin you lose is the fifth year guarantee. I’d give that up for additional picks on day two. Additionally, after using a day 3 pick on best punter, I would package some of the 5th and 6th round picks for higher 2021 pick. There are not many roster spots up for grabs especially if they sign at least a couple starters in free agency or bring back Spain. A few day two defenders and AJ Green would be perfect. Or a DE in free agency and then a WR and two OLB on day two. The trick in that case is finding value for your trade down. There has to be a team - or better yet teams - that do see a difference in 22 vs mid 30s and are willing to pay for it. Usually that points to positional importance or scheme specific players. 22 isn’t a terrible spot for that. Elite and blue chip prospects will be gone. Purple chip prospects will probably be running out around that pick. Maybe we can’t trade up for one we want and there’s only one or two left that don’t fit here. Some team will come get them. Or maybe they run out totally and someone wants to snag a red chip QB or DE (since it’s such a poor class overall). I’d rather get a better player, but this is a good way to go if we can’t. 1 minute ago, Zerovoltz said: Something to think about here...... It's a deep draft. It stands to reason A LOT of teams will want to trade back for more picks etc...but in a market where so many teams are looking to trade back, and so few looking to trade up.....there could be value in moving up instead. Follow me for a moment here. Let's say you are.....Green Bay at 30 (just a random team) and you feel that there are a ton of guys at 35-50 who are all about the same and you'd like to move back. ......You need a partner or 2 who'd want to move up. If you can't find that market, then you aren't moving down.....So, the Packers, if they are intent on moving down in this case, would probably be willing to trade back for less than the chart value etc....because all the teams want to move back for picks and no on wants to move up. Hopefully I am making my point with the example, wich is.....in a year like this, there is value in MOVING UP. It may well be a bargain if you want to go up, instead of back. If you believe in the value of picks and you believe in targeting your guy.....this is a great year to be on the hunt to move up.....because it shouldn't be that costly. Ha! Jinx! 1
RyanC883 Posted March 6, 2020 Posted March 6, 2020 9 hours ago, Estro said: If there's one minor complaint I have with the Bills under the Beane/McDermott era its their propensity to always want to trade up in Rounds 2 & 3. Now they have hit on their fair share of players, but trading up in the draft, as a whole, has proven to be a losing strategy longterm. This year I'm getting the sense the Bills are going to make the smart move and look to sell the #22 pick. Beane, in an interview, gave a hypothetical, but he kind of tipped his hand and admitted the strength of this draft is in rounds 2 and 3......and I think the Bills would love to be in a position position to pick 4 maybe even 5 players in Rounds 2 & 3 of the NFL draft. How? Glad you asked...... Trade pick #22 to a QB needy team looking to leapfrog the Patriots at pick #23. There are quite a few teams this could apply to, but for the sake of this scenario let's use the Colts who have picks #34 & #75 (which happens to be an almost exact match on the trade value chart) Now the Bills are sitting with picks #34, #54, #75 & #86 and #100 (via a trade up with our 4th and both 5ths, because you know they can't go a whole draft without getting an itch for a trade up) Under this scenario you could have a 2nd day as follows: #34 - Yetur Gross Matos (DE) #54 - Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB) #75 - Damon Arnette (CB) #86 - Bryan Edwards (WR) #100 - KJ Hill (slot WR) this is okay, but the Bills need elite talent as other's have noted. It depends on if Matos lasts till 34. I would not trade down unless Matos or another DE we like is high on the list. I think Bryan Edwards is the "sleeper" WR in this draft. 7 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said: You have a lot more faith in Brandon Beane's eye for WR talent than I do. Keep in mind, we're looking for a premier #1 guy and Josh doesn't have 3 years to wait for a wideout to develop. The Bills cannot miss here. I think the point is a "premier guy" is likely available after Rd. 1. I'd go DE/ then do what it takes to grab Mims from Baylor. 1
SCBills Posted March 6, 2020 Posted March 6, 2020 (edited) I could see this, as well as using some of our multiple 4th, 5th and 6th round picks to get 4-5 picks in the 2nd & 3rd Rounds. We have no room for all those picks and I’d be shocked if they aren’t used to move around, and package to move up. I’d also be completely ok giving up next years 1st to get Ceedee Lamb. He’s the exact type we’re missing. Edited March 6, 2020 by SCBills
dlonce Posted March 6, 2020 Posted March 6, 2020 Any scenario is depended upon Free Agency first. FA will set the table for possibilities. I’d prefer to trade up this year, the higher the better. We have too many picks right now, and need a potential elite talent that can play today for you.
Bob Chandler's Hands Posted March 6, 2020 Posted March 6, 2020 In a salary cap environment, first round picks must be All-Pro's or their value per consumption of cap space is negative. Whereas 2nd/3rd rounders who are strong contributors have a good value/cost ratio. Get enough of those guys in house and you also hit on some All-Pro's from rounds 2-3 at much better initial cost for years 1-4.
KGun12TD Posted March 6, 2020 Posted March 6, 2020 We got to get used to picking in the 20s and 30s...This is the new norm.
Mark Vader Posted March 6, 2020 Posted March 6, 2020 4 hours ago, BillsFanSD said: We have more draft picks than spots available on the roster. This is the perfect year to trade up, not down. 2 hours ago, MarkyMannn said: i like the 2018 draft. Pick a guy at the top and get back in and get another mid-round first. How'd that work out? Pretty good. Besides we got few holes, we need quality picks, not quantity I somewhat disagree. Trading down is not a bad option, depending on who is still available of course. We wouldn't have to trade all the way back to the second round either. Moving down 4-6 spots would be good and we'd still have a first round pick while gaining an extra Day 2 pick. I think we need all the help at WR that we can get and this is the draft to do it. I think the Bills should draft 3 Wide Receivers, even if we do sign a veteran in free agency. After John Brown & Cole Beasley, every other spot should be open competition. I'm not saying that the Bills should absolutely trade down, but I do see the benefit of it.
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