This is the year to trade down and pick up multiple Day 2 picks

[Estro]

If there's one minor complaint I have with the Bills under the Beane/McDermott era its their propensity to always want to trade up in Rounds 2 & 3. Now they have hit on their fair share of players, but trading up in the draft, as a whole, has proven to be a losing strategy longterm.

 

This year I'm getting the sense the Bills are going to make the smart move and look to sell the #22 pick. Beane, in an interview, gave a hypothetical, but he kind of tipped his hand and admitted the strength of this draft is in rounds 2 and 3......and I think the Bills would love to be in a position position to pick 4 maybe even 5 players in Rounds 2 & 3 of the NFL draft.  How?

 

Glad you asked......

 

Trade pick #22 to a QB needy team looking to leapfrog the Patriots at pick #23.  There are quite a few teams this could apply to, but for the sake of this scenario let's use the Colts who have picks #34 & #75 (which happens to be an almost exact match on the trade value chart)

 

Now the Bills are sitting with picks #34, #54, #75 & #86 and #100 (via a trade up with our 4th and both 5ths, because you know they can't go a whole draft without getting an itch for a trade up)

 

Under this scenario you could have a 2nd day as follows:

#34 - Yetur Gross Matos (DE)

#54 - Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB)

#75 - Damon Arnette (CB)

#86 - Bryan Edwards (WR)

#100 - KJ Hill (slot WR)

[MJS]

I'd tend to agree, but what our team lacks is elite talent. We have decent depths and decent starters all around. We need those impact players. And those types are more commonly found higher in the draft. So I think we should stay put or even trade up a few spots if a play maker falls.

[BruceVilanch]

25 minutes ago, MJS said:

I'd tend to agree, but what our team lacks is elite talent. We have decent depths and decent starters all around. We need those impact players. And those types are more commonly found higher in the draft. So I think we should stay put or even trade up a few spots if a play maker falls.

I agree, I think you trade down when you are trying to build a team, Buffalo has built the core of their team already and we are in need elite playmakers which you generally have to pay a high price for if you want to move up and get them. in past drafts I agree about acquiring as much talent as possible, we are in a rare position for this franchise where we are only a couple elite players away from competing for a SB. Go Bills!

[DCbillsfan]

I suspect Bills will stay in the first round to keep the 5th year option on that pick.  There are quite of few good players available on Day 2.  It wouldn't surprise me to see a repeat of last year - 4 picks in the first 3 rounds.  

[CSBill]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

I'd tend to agree, but what our team lacks is elite talent. We have decent depths and decent starters all around. We need those impact players. And those types are more commonly found higher in the draft. So I think we should stay put or even trade up a few spots if a play maker falls.

 

I agree. We have solid talent and trading down probably gets you better depth, but this team needs ELITE talent. Now, if it is determined their is no elite talent to be had at 22, and it can be cashed in for more talent by trading down, sure. But to get the next level, it needs elite talent in the skill positions.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

WR not important to you I take it?

[cage]

5 minutes ago, CSBill said:

 

I agree. We have solid talent and trading down probably gets you better depth, but this team needs ELITE talent. Now, if it is determined their is no elite talent to be had at 22, and it can be cashed in for more talent by trading down, sure. But to get the next level, it needs elite talent in the skill positions.

 

What's the definition of ELITE talent? Outside of QB, possibly OT and probably DE/Edge, I don't think the first round is nirvana. If one of the top 4 OT or K'lavon Chaisson falls to #22, they should go for it. Outside of that a trade-down seems a good strategy for Bills with their needs.

 

Look at the top 10 WRs last year (excluded RB/TE), only 3 were drafted in the first round:

1. Michael Thomas     3

2. Keenan Allen            3

3. DeAndre Hopkins    1

4. Julian Edelman        7

5. Julio Jones              1

6. Allen Robinson        2

7. Cooper Kupp           3

8. Tyler Boyd                2

9.  Robert Woods         2

10.  DJ Moore               1

Add to that guys like Tyreek Hill (5), Kenny Galloday (3), Adam Theilan (UDFA), Mike Evans (1), OBJ (1), Amari Cooper (1), Devante Adams (2) and even Antonio Brown (6).  Just a minority are first rounders.

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, DCbillsfan said:

I suspect Bills will stay in the first round to keep the 5th year option on that pick.  There are quite of few good players available on Day 2.  It wouldn't surprise me to see a repeat of last year - 4 picks in the first 3 rounds.  

Yup.  I see Beane being even more aggressive and trading our late round picks like he did last year to get at least four picks in the first three rounds.  I'm hoping for five though.  I'm thinking we stay where we are in the 1st (or trade down a few spots), two in the 2nd, and possibly two in the 3rd.  Deep draft for OT and WR so he'd be wise to accumulate picks in the 2nd and 3rd round.

[formerlyofCtown]

Yes because we have so many roster spots to fill.

That way we can be like the Jets and cut 3rd rounders.

[Bakin]

21 minutes ago, cage said:

 

What's the definition of ELITE talent? Outside of QB, possibly OT and probably DE/Edge, I don't think the first round is nirvana. If one of the top 4 OT or K'lavon Chaisson falls to #22, they should go for it. Outside of that a trade-down seems a good strategy for Bills with their needs.

 

Look at the top 10 WRs last year (excluded RB/TE), only 3 were drafted in the first round:

1. Michael Thomas     3

2. Keenan Allen            3

3. DeAndre Hopkins    1

4. Julian Edelman        7

5. Julio Jones              1

6. Allen Robinson        2

7. Cooper Kupp           3

8. Tyler Boyd                2

9.  Robert Woods         2

10.  DJ Moore               1

Add to that guys like Tyreek Hill (5), Kenny Galloday (3), Adam Theilan (UDFA), Mike Evans (1), OBJ (1), Amari Cooper (1), Devante Adams (2) and even Antonio Brown (6).  Just a minority are first rounders.

Michael Thomas was a 2nd rounder

[Cripple Creek]

4 hours ago, Estro said:

If there's one minor complaint I have with the Bills under the Beane/McDermott era its their propensity to always want to trade up in Rounds 2 & 3. Now they have hit on their fair share of players, but trading up in the draft, as a whole, has proven to be a losing strategy longterm.

 

This year I'm getting the sense the Bills are going to make the smart move and look to sell the #22 pick. Beane, in an interview, gave a hypothetical, but he kind of tipped his hand and admitted the strength of this draft is in rounds 2 and 3......and I think the Bills would love to be in a position position to pick 4 maybe even 5 players in Rounds 2 & 3 of the NFL draft.  How?

 

Glad you asked......

 

Trade pick #22 to a QB needy team looking to leapfrog the Patriots at pick #23.  There are quite a few teams this could apply to, but for the sake of this scenario let's use the Colts who have picks #34 & #75 (which happens to be an almost exact match on the trade value chart)

 

Now the Bills are sitting with picks #34, #54, #75 & #86 and #100 (via a trade up with our 4th and both 5ths, because you know they can't go a whole draft without getting an itch for a trade up)

 

Under this scenario you could have a 2nd day as follows:

#34 - Yetur Gross Matos (DE)

#54 - Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB)

#75 - Damon Arnette (CB)

#86 - Bryan Edwards (WR)

#100 - KJ Hill (slot WR)

No.

[BillsFanSD]

We have more draft picks than spots available on the roster.  This is the perfect year to trade up, not down.

[nucci]

This is the year you get the best players you can and make a playoff run

[DCOrange]

I like the idea but pretty much hate the mock. 
 

and I also totally disagree that Beane views this as the year to trade down. I don’t think there will ever be a year he wants to trade down. 
 

if anything, that quote of his means he wants to trade up into the 2nd/3rd round using the extra day 3 picks. 

[Pete]

I would always trade down for extra picks- it increases odds of hitting on an elite talent, and is great for salary cap and comp picks down road.  Right now we need-

WR 1

WR 4

RB 1b

Edge

CB

backup QB

LB

 

wecan keep our picks, and have 3 top 100 picks, including pick 22, and fill 3 of those needs, maybe.

Or we can trade back, trade up, make multiple deals, and have 5-6 players in top 100.

give me the later option every time, and especially this year, unless top 3 OL fall to us, Chaisson, or Jeudy and Lamb

Edited March 6, 2020 by Pete

[Bob in STL]

Beane sets his board by player skill ratings first, and then need.  If he can move up to get a player that satisfies both criteria he will look to do it.   
 

He gets extra picks with shrewd moves to unload players that don’t fit.  

Edited March 7, 2020 by Bob in STL

[Ramza86]

Easy to say that...but if there is a guy still on the board they love....they are pulling the trigger without a doubt.

[whatdrought]

I’d rather trade 22 to the colts for 34 and 54. It’s an overpay by them, but I’d they’re gunning for a QB, we can put the screws to em a bit. 

[John from Riverside]

I am mixed on this seriously

the team has most of its players under contract and very few holes true playmakers are needee

[Shaw66]

6 hours ago, Estro said:

If there's one minor complaint I have with the Bills under the Beane/McDermott era its their propensity to always want to trade up in Rounds 2 & 3. Now they have hit on their fair share of players, but trading up in the draft, as a whole, has proven to be a losing strategy longterm.

 

This year I'm getting the sense the Bills are going to make the smart move and look to sell the #22 pick. Beane, in an interview, gave a hypothetical, but he kind of tipped his hand and admitted the strength of this draft is in rounds 2 and 3......and I think the Bills would love to be in a position position to pick 4 maybe even 5 players in Rounds 2 & 3 of the NFL draft.  How?

 

Glad you asked......

 

Trade pick #22 to a QB needy team looking to leapfrog the Patriots at pick #23.  There are quite a few teams this could apply to, but for the sake of this scenario let's use the Colts who have picks #34 & #75 (which happens to be an almost exact match on the trade value chart)

 

Now the Bills are sitting with picks #34, #54, #75 & #86 and #100 (via a trade up with our 4th and both 5ths, because you know they can't go a whole draft without getting an itch for a trade up)

 

Under this scenario you could have a 2nd day as follows:

#34 - Yetur Gross Matos (DE)

#54 - Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB)

#75 - Damon Arnette (CB)

#86 - Bryan Edwards (WR)

#100 - KJ Hill (slot WR)

I don't anything at all about the players, but I like the concept.   And I think you're right about what Beane has said about where the value seems to be in the draft.  

 

There's no question the talent is better in the first round than the second - that's just a statistical reality.   The difference in the talent is what matters.   The special talent is generally in the top four or five, maybe up to the top 10, but after that, you aren't talking about guys who are likely All-Pro and HOF talents.   You're just talking about guys who project to be very good NFL players.  Those probably very good NFL players run through the bottom half of the first and through the second, and some fall to the third.   So trading back from late in the first has exactly the potential you say - it increase by one the number of guys who have a good shot to make the team.   If you can pick five in the top three rounds, chances are good that four make the team.   Add two or three free agents, throw in a late round draftee or a free agent rookie who surprises, and you have seven to as many as ten new players on the roster.   That's a big talent upgrade on a team that's pretty good already.  

 

My only argument against the trade down is this:   the Bills will lose two or three important starters (Alexander, Shaq and Philips) and also really could use a starting receiver.  The first round pick, even though it's relatively late in the round, offers at least a decent shot and getting a quality guy to fill one of those slots.   It's tough to give that up.  

 

Maybe the better point is that this is at least the year that a trade down makes more sense than a trade up.