Covid-19 discussion and humor thread [Was: CDC says don't touch your face to avoid Covid19...Vets to the rescue!

[BillsFan4]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Especially with wildly disparate abilities of state funding and labs in different parts of the country, this seems like a big mistake.  We need more testing, not less!

Agreed.

 

It’s going to be tough to ever even do a national testing and tracing program if it’s left up to each state to decide if they’ll do it or not (and if they have the funding to accomplish it).

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I'd like to follow up a little bit on models.

 

This is the web page with the model put out by Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) to be very useful. IHME is an independent global health research center at the University of Washington, funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.  It seems to be the model that matches the numbers various folks in Washington are using.

 

1) a key assumption of the model is explicitly that social distancing restrictions in place, will continue to be in place through MAY

2) let's look at their projection about deaths.  The cited number is 60,000 deaths.  But the uncertainty (the shaded area) is 31,000-127,000!!! 

Pretty sure they have a bunch of other assumptions in there. 

 

I think the bottom line is that models are very problematic at this point because we simply don't have enough data.

 

 

 

 

[Saxum]

4 hours ago, Augie said:

 

Day 9 – I put liquor bottles in every room.  Tonight, I’m getting all dressed up and going Bar hopping.

 

 

LOL!  Did you plan that when sober?

1 hour ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

New report on distribution of the national stockpile:

 

https://oversight.house.gov/news/press-releases/new-document-shows-inadequate-distribution-of-personal-protective-equipment-and

“New Document Shows Inadequate Distribution of Personal Protective Equipment and Critical Medical Supplies to States”

 

Of course it is. FEMA is charge of making Inadequate Distribution and doing a great job of that.

[Saxum]

4 hours ago, Gray Beard said:

Any COBOL programmers out there?

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/business/coronavirus-cobol-programmers-new-jersey-trnd/index.html

 

"

Quote

Literally, we have systems that are 40-plus-years-old," New Jersey Gov. Murphy said over the weekend. "There'll be lots of postmortems and one of them on our list will be how did we get here where we literally needed COBOL programmers?"

 

More important how did we get here where we have so many laywers and politicians?

[Nervous Guy]

19 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

this topic is crazy to not mention people in politics so I'll make some self edits and use AIRED

 

Fact: Hydroxychloroquine has side effects, one of which can be fatal

According to Plowe, who has been studying the drug for decades, AIRED statements are misguided. “You can lose your life. That's pretty clear.

 

This is a drug that can cause serious side effects. The eye issues tend to be people who've taken it for a long time. But the really serious cardiac issues — the potentially fatal cardiac arrhythmias — those can occur the first time you take the drug,” Plowe tells Yahoo Lifestyle.

 

“And it's not just older people who have heart issues, who are at risk. It can even occur in people with normal hearts, so that's a real concern.”

 

The most common side effects associated with hydroxychloroquine are headache, dizziness, nausea and vomiting, but cardiotoxicity — “medication-induced damage to the heart” — has been documented as a “rare but serious complication” of the drug. Z-packs, as AIRED, have also been tied to deadly heart complications, also in rare cases.

 

to see the story look up 

Abby Haglage

Yahoo Lifestyle  post date April 7, 2020, 8:30 PM EDT

To be fair...rare side effects (such as cardiotoxicity in this case) are classified as occurring between 1 in 1000 and 1 in 10000  people, or as a percentage 0.01% and 0.1%.  And remember, this drug is also used in Lupus and Rheumatoid Arthritis.

[Cripple Creek]

Don't you dare take away my bacon!

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/business/meat-plant-closures-coronavirus/index.html

[plenzmd1]

Unemployment claims 6.6m, way more than expected.  But somehow all 3 indices set to open up. Fed stepping in huge. Man stuff is crazy right now. 
 

have no clue what to do or what’s gunna happen. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Nervous Guy said:

To be fair...rare side effects (such as cardiotoxicity in this case) are classified as occurring between 1 in 1000 and 1 in 10000  people, or as a percentage 0.01% and 0.1%.  And remember, this drug is also used in Lupus and Rheumatoid Arthritis.

 

That's true, NG, but please bear in mind that those incidence of side effects were determined when hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine were given to entire populations, typically in countries that did not have a lot of elders with underlying health conditions.  Lupus and RA patients receiving these get carefully monitored.

 

If one is proposing to give them to seriously ill covid-19 patients, recall that many of these patients have underlying health conditions and that pre-existing heart conditions are a huge co-morbidity with covid-19.  In addition, covid-19 patients are showing cardiac abnormalities, as part of the disease course.

 

One simply can not conclude that the incidence of fatal cardiac arrhythmias will be the same in seriously ill covid-19 patients. 

 

I understand the decision to treat hospitalized patients, don't get me wrong - after all, it's part of the standard of care in China because their physicians thought they saw evidence it helped! and there would have been an argument to be made for just adopting their standard of care along with WHO's test.  I'm just saying under the Hippocratic "first do no harm" principle, there's also a clear argument for not treating patients broadly, absent clear evidence it's effective.

[K-9]

I found Bill Barr’s comments interesting and imo, it looks as though it’s gonna be end of April, come hell or high water. I foresee federal challenges to states that continue to enforce strict social distancing measures after the end of the month. Which would be another in a long line of ironies relative to our national response to the pandemic. 
 

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-bill-barr-draconian-social-distancing-may-1-20200409-dezpaavmhfaq5hj6cixeotvpq4-story.html

[SDS]

10 minutes ago, K-9 said:

I found Bill Barr’s comments interesting and imo, it looks as though it’s gonna be end of April, come hell or high water. I foresee federal challenges to states that continue to enforce strict social distancing measures after the end of the month. Which would be another in a long line of ironies relative to our national response to the pandemic. 
 

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-bill-barr-draconian-social-distancing-may-1-20200409-dezpaavmhfaq5hj6cixeotvpq4-story.html

His opinion is no more noteworthy than mine.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, K-9 said:

I found Bill Barr’s comments interesting and imo, it looks as though it’s gonna be end of April, come hell or high water. I foresee federal challenges to states that continue to enforce strict social distancing measures after the end of the month. Which would be another in a long line of ironies relative to our national response to the pandemic. 
 

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-bill-barr-draconian-social-distancing-may-1-20200409-dezpaavmhfaq5hj6cixeotvpq4-story.html

 

The model which predicts a favorable outcome of "only" 60-80,000 people dying, and only 17,000 ICU beds more than we have needed, has a foundational assumption that stay-at-home orders continue through the end of May.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/health/coronavirus-us-ihme-model-us/index.html

 

""Our estimate of 81 thousand deaths in the US over the next 4 months is an alarming number," the researchers wrote, "but this number could be substantially higher if excess demand for health system resources is not addressed and if social distancing policies are not vigorously implemented and enforced across all states."

 

The other thing that has to be borne in mind is that when one looks at the model for the United States predicting a peak in mid-April, that is a "dog" very much being "wagged" by the tail of New York City. 

 

In many cities, we are no where near a peak.  Even in upstate New York, the peak will probably be somewhat later.

 

 

[K-9]

Just now, SDS said:

His opinion is no more noteworthy than mine.

Oh, absolutely. But, while his opinion isn’t important, the opinions of others that dictate his direction certainly is it’s those opinions that dictate federal actions. Or lack thereof. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

39 minutes ago, SDS said:

His opinion is no more noteworthy than mine.

 

You don't think he's been sent out there like the "sacrificial penguin", in Lt Gov Dan Patrick fashion, to test the waters and see if the leopard seals are lurking?
 

Then there's this
https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/sns-kansas-lawmakers-revoke-church-limits-20200409-tedf6o2p6zgx7na6tnuceolijq-story.html#nt=latestnews&rt=chartbeat-flt

In a number of other States, church services are exempted from the closures.   If Easter services are held, seems like good chances of another bloom of cases in early May, just when they're speaking of lifting restrictions.

 

 

 

[K-9]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You don't think he's been sent out there, in Lt Gov Dan Patrick fashion, to test the waters?

More like chumming the waters. 

[Figster]

On a side note and I touched on this subject in an earlier post. While there may not be any scientific data right now to support this with so little known about Covid 19. Small cuts or abrasions that are not bandaged or covered may put you at a higher risk. Including small cuts from shaving.

 

Stay home, stay safe people...

[K-9]

4 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

Unemployment claims 6.6m, way more than expected.  But somehow all 3 indices set to open up. Fed stepping in huge. Man stuff is crazy right now. 
 

have no clue what to do or what’s gunna happen. 

I’m not surprised at all. Wall Street is not and never has been Main Street. Wall Street isn’t the economy, after all. The demand side impacts of the high unemployment numbers will be reflected eventually, but right now, the getting is good on Wall Street; lots of great deals to be had. I know you know all that, I’m just offering an opinion. The market has always recovered, regardless. 

[Justin C]

16 minutes ago, Figster said:

On a side note and I touched on this subject in an earlier post. While there may not be any scientific data right now to support this with so little known about Covid 19. Small cuts or abrasions that are not bandaged or covered may put you at a higher risk. Including small cuts from shaving.

 

Stay home, stay safe people...

 

Hold on. So small cuts from shaving may infect me. But also long beards are bad for coronavirus as well. The ultimate conundrum! 

 

I have a one month beard going and as long as I'm working from home and only going to Wegmans/Tops, it will keep growing.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

25 minutes ago, Figster said:

On a side note and I touched on this subject in an earlier post. While there may not be any scientific data right now to support this with so little known about Covid 19. Small cuts or abrasions that are not bandaged or covered may put you at a higher risk. Including small cuts from shaving.

 

Stay home, stay safe people...

 

I mean, anything "MAY" be a problem and cuts generally pose a higher risk of infection...but we do have great local immune responses near our skin.    There are a few viruses that can cause infection in skin abrasions (smallpox is one) but those typically cause skin eruptions (eg smallpox; more relevant today hand, foot and mouth disease aka coxackie virus; herpes viruses including herpes simplex and zoster; adenovirus)

 

But all "Mays" are not equal.  ACE2 (the "doorknob" protein used to enter the cell) is expressed widely in the body on epithelia (that's skin cells), especially abundant in the lungs and intestines.  The symptoms we're seeing with SARS-COV2 (covid-19 disease) are respiratory and some GI (diarrhea, vomiting, loss of appetite).  With SARS-COV, binding was seen to another receptor, CD209L, leading to the hypothesis that they both participate in cellular entry.

 

When the dust settles, two receptors may be found to be needed for SARS-COV2 infection as well. 

 

Covering small cuts or abrasions is certainly a fine idea - they'll heal faster and you really don't want to visit Urgent Care or an ER to get treatment for cellulitis or felon right now - but it seems pretty clear the primary route of infections involve the lungs, secondary GI tract.  The GI symptoms are the symptoms that have me go "hmmmm" when experts assure me that take-out food including salads and sandwiches are perfectly safe.  I have yet to encounter any symptoms that make me think skin entry is a risk.

 

If you actually have any data of any kind to support this, kindly provide.

30 minutes ago, Justin C said:

 

Hold on. So small cuts from shaving may infect me. But also long beards are bad for coronavirus as well. The ultimate conundrum! 

 

I have a one month beard going and as long as I'm working from home and only going to Wegmans/Tops, it will keep growing.

 

Depends on what kind of mask you're wearing.  If you're wearing an ordinary paper medical mask, or a cloth mask, these don't seal - wear your beard.

If you're trying to rock an N95 respirator or something else that makes a seal to the face, shave.

[Hardhatharry]

Little scary everyone I work with is coughing.... No one wants to admit they are sick though b.c they don't want to end up unemployed.

[Warcodered]